3 Reasons the Twins Keep Trading for Injured Pitchers

[Cody Christie]

Anthony DeSclafani’s recent injury news indicates a disturbing trend for the current front-office regime. Here are three reasons why the Twins continue to trade for injured pitchers.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier this week, the Twins announced multiple injury updates for pitchers who will begin the year on the IL. Jhoan Durán might be the most significant loss for the Twins, but the hope is that he can return in 4-6 weeks. For fans, Anthony DeSclafani’s injury might be the most frustrating, because it follows a pattern of the club acquiring injured pitchers (or injury-prone ones who lived up to their reputations almost immediately after arriving). Sam Dyson (12 appearances), Chris Paddack (five starts), and Tyler Mahle (nine starts) all have been limited after being acquired by the current front office. Even Kenta Maeda pitched fewer than 175 innings in Minnesota before needing to go under the knife. 

Following the DeSclafani news, The Star Tribune’s Michael Rand wrote, “The Twins need to stop trading for damaged pitchers.” He went so far as to say this “represents a blind spot with the Twins’ brain trust.” On the surface, that seems like a simple enough premise for every front office should follow. However, it’s not as simple as it sounds for the Minnesota Twins and their place in MLB’s hierarchy. Let’s dive into why the Twins continue trading for distressed assets and how it will impact the team moving forward. 

1. All pitchers have injury histories (or will have them)
The human body isn’t meant to throw a baseball with the velocity and movement used by major-league pitchers. Teams continue to find ways for players to throw harder, but that comes at a cost. Tommy John surgeries, once a career-threatening procedure, have become standard practice. Some pitchers, like Paddack, have the procedure multiple times. Elbow and shoulder issues have become so common that it seems like a matter of time before a pitcher misses time with an injury. 

Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is arguably baseball’s best pitcher and has been a workhorse throughout his career. He has six seasons with over 200 innings pitched (a rare feat in baseball’s current landscape), and threw a league-high 209 innings in 2023. Now, Cole will miss time at the season’s start with elbow nerve inflammation, and he might not be back for 10-12 weeks. He’s one of multiple starters in the AL Cy Young voting (finishing place listed below) to be injured this spring. Sonny Gray (2nd place), now with the Cardinals, will miss Opening Day with a hamstring injury. Kevin Gausman (3rd place) is dealing with a shoulder issue in Blue Jays camp. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish (4th place) is working his way back from a sprained UCL. Every pitcher deals with injuries, even the league’s best arms. 

2. The front office refuses to leverage the farm system for frontline starting pitching
As a mid-market team, the Twins need a healthy farm system to replace aging veterans who leave via free agency. This strategy has been standard practice since the Metrodome era, and it will continue to be true if ownership keeps payroll at its current level. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could have packaged Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez together to get a top-tier starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. That scenario might help the team for the short term, but there would be long-term ramifications when the club runs short on big-league caliber prospects in the farm system. 

Mahle’s trade was the team’s most prominent swing in terms of prospect capital, with Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar going to the Reds. Minnesota felt good about their depth in the minors at the positions those prospects played, which made them easier to trade. The front office also avoided trading from the team’s top-ranked prospects. There were better pitchers than Mahle available at the 2022 trade deadline, like Luis Castillo, but it would have taken much better prospects. Some fans might want the Twins to go all in to acquire starting pitching, but this front office refuses to leverage the farm.

3. Giving large contracts to starting pitching doesn’t always work in the team’s favor
Minnesota’s front office has attempted to sign some big-name free-agent starters in recent years, including offers to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler. Both those players received higher offers from other organizations and preferred to play on the coasts. Wheeler has been terrific for the Phillies since signing, becoming a perennial Cy Young candidate and signing a second contract with them this spring for $126 million over three years. Darvish has had a streaky performance with San Diego while posting a 101 ERA+. Free agent deals tend to look worse over time, especially for players who reach their late- to mid-30s. The Twins also can’t afford to give a significant amount of their available payroll to a starter since the ownership group cut payroll by $30 million this winter. 

The Twins’ best pitcher drafted and developed in the organization over the last decade was José Berríos. Minnesota’s front office tried to work out a long-term deal, but Berríos wanted to be paid like a frontline starter. After trading him to Toronto, the Blue Jays signed him to a seven-year, $131 million deal, and he struggled in 2022 (74 ERA+) before bouncing back in 2023 (116 ERA+). To get a frontline starter, the Twins were creative in trading for Pablo López and changing his pitch mix. Minnesota quickly signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension, which looks like a bargain compared to the Berríos contract. López and Berríos can both be All-Stars in the years ahead, but the Twins must be careful about how their money is spent. 

It’s frustrating for fans to watch players get injured, especially those who seem to get injured shortly after putting on a Twins uniform. However, it’s not a “blind spot” for the current front office because injuries happen with pitchers across every baseball organization. 

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Do you agree with the above reasons? Should the front office be more cautious about their trade acquisitions? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Coach Wheels]

If the Twins goal is protect their best arms and develop them, we're losing on the 2nd half of this goal. Paddock, Lopez, and Ryan all came from other teams. When 60-80% of your rotation is developed in your firm system, bringing in broken pitchers seems lazy. D-Scal wasn't the pri,e in the Polanco deal but after Varland effort yesterday, questions remain in our rotation.

[killertwinfan]

Issue number 1 is they are cheap.  They do not spend at the level most teams do relative to market size.  So new ownership would help more than anything else. I understand the strategy, you know the player can perform if healthy.  They are buying cheap because the player is hurt.  Unfortunately this strategy has not returned the results they desired. 

[Whitey333]

This article is amongst the absolutely .most absurd articles I've read in TD. Most of the articles here are well written, well researched and newsworthy.  This story is void of most of that.  It comes across as a very sophomoric attempt to make the Twins not take any responsibility for their actions.  I'm all for supporting the Twins efforts.  But this article clearly misses the boat here.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Three really good bullpen pitchers are usually less expensive than one really good starter. Compare Duran, Jax and Stewart to Lopez or Gray. Also 6 really good bullpen pitchers may pitch 300 to 360 innings total, compared to 2 really good starting pitchers, pitching 300-360 innings total. That seems to be the direction MLB is headed. Also it eliminates the problem of a pitcher having to pitch 2-3 times in a game to the same batters. Statistics show that a pitcher is less effective the 3rd time through the order. Finally, and I have not seen figures to back this hypothesis, there may be less strain on a pitcher's arm, elbow and shoulder by pitching just a few innings every 2-3 days vs. a starter pitching 7-9 innings on one occasion. Cody, your article was a breath of fresh air on this controversial subject. 

[MABB1959]

I don't think Berrios wanted to stay but he was the best pitcher they have had in a long time,  He has stayed injury free and give the Blue Jay's lots of innings.  It wouldn't be as bad if we had received decent players in the trade.

[chpettit19]

Steer, CES, and Polanco would look awfully nice in this lineup right now. The idea that they aren't paying much for these pitchers seems false to me. Those are 3 legitimate MLB bats that were traded for what may end up being 9 total starts from the starting arms they got back. I know they got more for Polanco, but I don't buy that DeSclafani was just some throw in on the deal. And even if he was, you shouldn't treat a rotation spot as a "throw in" on a deal. So either way I don't like it.

If the strategy worked out more often I'd be more willing to buy it as a smart strategy. But it hasn't worked out at all. At some point you need to look at the results and adjust your strategy.

[LastOnePicked]

I'm confused. Didn't the Twins already leverage the farm system in trading for Gray, Mahle and Jorge Lopez? Gray worked out perfectly well. Mahle and Lopez were disastrous. But perhaps they didn't leverage the system again in the offseason because there's just not much potentially-expendable talent left in the system.

I think it was a HUGE mistake not signing a free agent starter this offseason, and it may force them into another foolish deadline trade come late summer.

[Robert Gauthier]

Payroll arguments are always a bit of a stretch when you consider that the billionaires that own the team pay themselves salaries of $10 million per year. If they cared about the fans that would go to the team. Like most wealthy people, they feel they are entitled to making lots of money on some thing that they really don’t do that much with, and they make a huge gain when they sell it.  And when they need to build a stadium that increases the value of their team they go to the taxpayers.

[Doctor Gast]

Obtaining damage pitchers is not cheap It's throwing away decent talent & money. IMO they only look at stats & hope for the best & completely overlook the glaring injury condition of pitchers. Yeah pitchers get injured but obtaining injured pitchers w/o really examining them or hoping it doesn't develop into TJ is like playing Russian roulette w/ 5 shells in the chamber. I like my chances much better getting a healthy pitcher & try to keep him healthy.

[mikelink45]

You forgot to add Pineda.  I understand that we think we can sweep in and get a future star if we can wait a year for recovery. Pineda was 22 - 13 with a 3.80 era and started 53 games in three years. He signed as a free agent and was let go as a free agent.  At least he did not cost prospects.  

I do understand the reluctance to give huge contracts to pitchers in their 30s and developing our own arms is a better strategy, but how do you make this happen?

Mahle cost us a lot of good prospects, Gray cost us Chase Petty who is 1 - 8 with a 2.74 era in 45 minor league games.  No big loss so far. 

DeSclafani is the one that bothers me the most.  We gave up the Seattle Mariners number 3 hitter and our hope is that the minor leaguer will be a stud, but what we needed was an arm that could contribute. 

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Steer, CES, and Polanco would look awfully nice in this lineup right now. The idea that they aren't paying much for these pitchers seems false to me. Those are 3 legitimate MLB bats that were traded for what may end up being 9 total starts from the starting arms they got back. I know they got more for Polanco, but I don't buy that DeSclafani was just some throw in on the deal. And even if he was, you shouldn't treat a rotation spot as a "throw in" on a deal. So either way I don't like it.

If the strategy worked out more often I'd be more willing to buy it as a smart strategy. But it hasn't worked out at all. At some point you need to look at the results and adjust your strategy.

The list will probably grow.  The Orioles are pretty high on Cade Povich and SGL had a successful debut with the Tigers.  They are yet tom prove anything, but that depth would look pretty good about now.  

[CRF]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Steer, CES, and Polanco would look awfully nice in this lineup right now. The idea that they aren't paying much for these pitchers seems false to me. Those are 3 legitimate MLB bats that were traded for what may end up being 9 total starts from the starting arms they got back. I know they got more for Polanco, but I don't buy that DeSclafani was just some throw in on the deal. And even if he was, you shouldn't treat a rotation spot as a "throw in" on a deal. So either way I don't like it.

If the strategy worked out more often I'd be more willing to buy it as a smart strategy. But it hasn't worked out at all. At some point you need to look at the results and adjust your strategy.

This is absolutely 100% spot on. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I can understand taking fliers on injury risk pitchers.  Most of these guys are very high ceiling, and as the Twins are unwilling to spend a ton on FA pitchers coming from outside the organization, this is their best chance at acquiring top-notch guys.  The "prospects" they typically move for these pitchers are either lower in the ranking or systematically blocked by players above them.

Along those lines, I have always felt that 4 years should be the max contract on a SP.  The general injury risk is just so high.  Very few teams can afford to throw away money at the back-end of contracts, including the Twins.

[rv78]

1. All pitchers have injury histories (or will have them)

It is one thing to have injury histories, it's another thing to target those pitchers for acquisition. The Twins let one of the most durable pitchers in Jose Berrios leave. He'd look pretty good in the rotation right now and his injury history is pretty much zero. Even when he struggled in 2022 he threw 172 innings. So, no not all pitchers fit this narrative.

2. The front office refuses to leverage the farm system for frontline starting pitching

The reason for this strategy is their choice, not their only option. Why does it have to be a trade of prospects? They even made such a trade with Polanco but their target was flawed, again. I've posted here several times that trading Polanco and Kepler FOR PROSPECTS to free up payroll to use for a front line FREE AGENT starter like a Montgomery or a Snell would be a better strategy. That $20M from Polanco and Kepler plus the $5M they spent on Santana, plus the $2M-$4M on Margot would go a long way to cover that FA Pitchers contract. Why is taking a chance on an injured starter better than taking a chance on players you already have in your organization like Kirilloff, Larnach, Martin, Miranda, Lee, and Castro to cover 1st base, 2nd base, and any outfield spots? Are they so bad they can't be counted on? The available payroll spent this off-season went to 1 year wonders in the bullpen, an injured starter, a backup 1st baseman and a backup centerfielder, which is a story in itself every year. What most of these young guys need is a chance, and the chance needs to be an everyday chance, not a platoon to death chance that never gives them the opportunity to get into a groove and rythym. If they are so bad that they aren't worthy of that chance then the FO isn't drafting very well either.

3. Giving large contracts to starting pitching doesn’t always work in the team’s favor

Most big-name Free Agents don't want to come to Minnesota because of one reason. No committment to winning. When you continually go down the path of acquiring washed up veterans like Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Gallo, and broken players like Pineda, Paddack, Mahle and now DeSclafani how does that look? Giving out large contracts works if you are smart about it and give it to the right player. Did Correa come here because the Twins gave him the highest offer or was it because two other teams backed out? He wouldn't be here either had they not. Even his health was in question. 

You maybe think the current FO doesn't have a "blind spot" but they do need to go get a pair of glasses or better yet, implore a different strategy because the current one, like it or not, is flawed.

[Cory Engelhardt]

You mention trading for Luis Castillo instead of Tyler Mahle. I also know everyone (myself included) wanted Frankie Montas during that season. We see how that worked out for the Yankees.

Can you 100% say that if the Twins had acquired Luis Castillo that he would have stayed healthy? I mean, he has stayed healthy, but point #1 is that pitching is not natural for the human body to do, so pitching itself causes the injuries right?

I'm glad the front office is ok with taking swings. I'm disappointed they didn't add an impact starting pitcher this offseason (that was the word choice they had this past fall/offseason.) They do have quite a bit of depth it seems, but I still expect one to be added at some point. 

[KBJ1]

This team needs to sign Jordan Montgomery right now! I agree with let the kids play. Would much rather see Austin Martin flourish than signing a utility backup like Margot. Margot DeSclafani & Santana is $15M they could have spent elsewhere. I hope these players contribute, but it's starting to look like we got an also ran, and injury and a has been for that money.

 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Obtaining damage pitchers is not cheap It's throwing away decent talent & money. IMO they only look at stats & hope for the best & completely overlook the blaring injury condition of pitchers. Yeah pitchers get injured but obtaining injured pitchers w/o really examining them or hoping it doesn't develop into TJ is like playing Russian roulette w/ 5 shells in the chamber. I like my chances much better getting a healthy pitcher & try to keep him healthy.

Getting "healthy" pitching has two drawbacks.  First, it requires giving up higher quality assets.  And second, there are no guarantees of continued good health no matter how much you like the medical/conditioning staff.  My "compromise" position would be to trade high quality assets from a position of strength (currently middle infielders and outfielders) to a team whose position of minor league strength is pitching.  In a way, it's like a redraft.  As a hypothetical, the Twins could make the following trade offer.  Note:  the players are listed with what level they played at in 2023, position, and their prospect ranking on their team (MLB.com).

To Miami

Gabriel Gonzalez (A, OF, #4)

Tanner Schobel (AA, 2B/SS, #10)

Danny De Andrade (A, SS, #14)

To Twins

Max Meyer (AAA, RHP, #3)

Dax Fulton (AA, LHP, #10)

Jacob Miller (A, RHP, #13)

I have NOT researched the Miami players to determine if they are worth trading for.  This is just a hypothetical I put together quickly to demonstrate my idea.

[Pykkman]

You need pitching depth for this strategy to be successful.   This year the twins do not have starting depth.   If we were not a play off team it wouldn’t look as bad……..

[SF Twins Fan]

The number one reason is because the owners are cheap.  Blake Snell signed a 2-year deal for $62 million, which the Twins could easily afford especially now that the TV deal for this season is in place.  Montgomery will likely end up signing for a similar contract.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm confused. Didn't the Twins already leverage the farm system in trading for Gray, Mahle and Jorge Lopez? Gray worked out perfectly well. Mahle and Lopez were disastrous. But perhaps they didn't leverage the system again in the offseason because there's just not much potentially-expendable talent left in the system.

I think it was a HUGE mistake not signing a free agent starter this offseason, and it may force them into another foolish deadline trade come late summer.

How is Lopez a disaster?

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

You forgot to add Pineda.  I understand that we think we can sweep in and get a future star if we can wait a year for recovery. Pineda was 22 - 13 with a 3.80 era and started 53 games in three years. He signed as a free agent and was let go as a free agent.  At least he did not cost prospects.  

I do understand the reluctance to give huge contracts to pitchers in their 30s and developing our own arms is a better strategy, but how do you make this happen?

Mahle cost us a lot of good prospects, Gray cost us Chase Petty who is 1 - 8 with a 2.74 era in 45 minor league games.  No big loss so far. 

DeSclafani is the one that bothers me the most.  We gave up the Seattle Mariners number 3 hitter and our hope is that the minor leaguer will be a stud, but what we needed was an arm that could contribute. 

Acquiring DeScalf was dumb.  He's old well onto the downslope and has/had glaring arm problems.  Everybody knew this.  

[Dave The Dastardly]

Sorry Cody, I ain't buying it. If we could keep the FO away from reclamation projects, the chronically injured, and the over-the-hill dumpster pile this team would be further ahead. It's like they're addicted to betting on long shots. Maybe they should give Gamblers Anonymous a call before they make another trade or free agent acquisition.

And as far as the "cheap owners" criticisms, I ain't buying that either. The owners are running a business, the fans are seeking entertainment. Two different goals that have to be balanced.  The owners are under no obligation to spend unlimited money entertaining the fans and the fans are under no obligation to spend more than they're willing to  on tickets, souvenirs and $8 beers. Ponying up 20-30 million for one pitcher that may or may not win 15 games a year drives up the cost for both owners and fans and doesn't guarantee either more profits or more entertainment.

This FO were hired based on their promise to build an internal pipeline of talent, which makes economic sense for a small market team, but then they seem to prefer acquiring damaged and/or worn-out external talent over using their "pipeline" talent, a $10,000,000 Gallo over a $700,000 rookie for example, which makes no economical sense whatsoever for the owners or provides more entertainment value for the fans.

So I say forget the search for the elusive and mythical Ace pitcher, stop looking for reclamation projects when your "pipeline" has players ready or near-ready for a shot at the Bigs and for pete sakes cut the price of stadium beers in half. Everybody will be happier.

[DJL44]

You could have stopped after #1. All of these pitchers have to pass a physical to get traded in the first place. Is Duran an injured pitcher acquired in a trade now that he has had an injury?

[CRF]

17 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

How is Lopez a disaster?

The trade for Pablo Lopez was fine. The trade for Jorge Lopez wasn't. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Apparently any article that brings up the Twins pitching staff will bring about the arguments that the Twins can’t develop pitching, the Pohlads are too cheap, we don’t look hard enough at the medicals, etc. etc. etc.  People need to look at the arguments at face value instead of reverting to the same old, same old.  

1. All pitchers are either injured or will be.  This is undoubtedly true.  In fact, it has been said that even a “healthy” pitcher’s scans will show damage to the elbow/shoulder.  With the advent of better surgeries and recoveries, this isn’t the career ended that it used to be.  Verlander has had a TJ.  Mariano Rivera had a TJ. Many other very successful pitchers have had them.  It’s an unfortunate part of pitching these days.  It’s about catching the right player when he’s healthy. 

2.  The Twins aren’t willing to leverage their farm system to trade for pitching.  This is also true, although I would argue that it’s about the degree to which they are willing.  They have obviously made some trades, but when they don’t work out they get destroyed for making them.  For every Mahle there is a Gray.  It just doesn’t always work and it’s scary to trade front line prospects like Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez.

3.  Big contracts don’t always work out.  This is the understatement of the century.  A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can afford to eat a big contract (or two or three) for a player that doesn’t produce.  A mid-market team  can’t do that and the owners and management know this.  It’s one of the reasons why the Twins are usually “out” on big money players, especially pitchers.  Signing a couple of big name pitcher for big dollars that don’t perform could leave the team in last place in the central for a couple of years.  I personally don’t want that.  It makes baseball no fun at all.  I lived through the late 1990’s.  

There are absolutely exceptions to these points, as there are to everything.  If it was so easy to have a great pitching staff, everyone would have one.  The reality is that the Twins starting staff was #2 in the league last year and this year is projected for a little lower but still easily top 10.  If that is failing to do right by the pitching staff then sign me up.  

[bean5302]

30 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

The number one reason is because the owners are cheap.  Blake Snell signed a 2-year deal for $62 million, which the Twins could easily afford especially now that the TV deal for this season is in place.  Montgomery will likely end up signing for a similar contract.

The owners have fielded a team that's lost money 3 of the past 4 years. Their payroll was over $150MM last year. If the Twins spent $300MM, there'd be complaints they didn't spend $310MM.

[Aggies7]

Michael Lorenzen: 1 year, $4.5 million deal with the rangers. Too expensive for the twinz. Maybe they can still get Rich Hill on an AARP discount!

[mrcharlie]

35 minutes ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Sorry Cody, I ain't buying it. If we could keep the FO away from reclamation projects, the chronically injured, and the over-the-hill dumpster pile this team would be further ahead. It's like they're addicted to betting on long shots. Maybe they should give Gamblers Anonymous a call before they make another trade or free agent acquisition.

And as far as the "cheap owners" criticisms, I ain't buying that either. The owners are running a business, the fans are seeking entertainment. Two different goals that have to be balanced.  The owners are under no obligation to spend unlimited money entertaining the fans and the fans are under no obligation to spend more than they're willing to  on tickets, souvenirs and $8 beers. Ponying up 20-30 million for one pitcher that may or may not win 15 games a year drives up the cost for both owners and fans and doesn't guarantee either more profits or more entertainment.

This FO were hired based on their promise to build an internal pipeline of talent, which makes economic sense for a small market team, but then they seem to prefer acquiring damaged and/or worn-out external talent over using their "pipeline" talent, a $10,000,000 Gallo over a $700,000 rookie for example, which makes no economical sense whatsoever for the owners or provides more entertainment value for the fans.

So I say forget the search for the elusive and mythical Ace pitcher, stop looking for reclamation projects when your "pipeline" has players ready or near-ready for a shot at the Bigs and for pete sakes cut the price of stadium beers in half. Everybody will be happier.

The owners business is entertainment.  Fans come to the ballpark to enjoy all the pleasures of professional baseball in a nice facility.  It is about being entertained for a few hours.  Ownership knows this and promotes the team and Target Field as such.

RE: The 3 Reasons the FO prefers injury prone trades.  There is actually a fourth reason... poor medical research.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

You mention trading for Luis Castillo instead of Tyler Mahle. I also know everyone (myself included) wanted Frankie Montas during that season. We see how that worked out for the Yankees.

Can you 100% say that if the Twins had acquired Luis Castillo that he would have stayed healthy? I mean, he has stayed healthy, but point #1 is that pitching is not natural for the human body to do, so pitching itself causes the injuries right?

I'm glad the front office is ok with taking swings. I'm disappointed they didn't add an impact starting pitcher this offseason (that was the word choice they had this past fall/offseason.) They do have quite a bit of depth it seems, but I still expect one to be added at some point. 

I've been big on Castillo for a long time, wanting the Twins to swing a deal for him. Deadline acquisitions are risky as Montas & Mahle prove. SEA scored big on Castillo. I also wanted the Twin to pull another Pablo Lopez-type trade this off-season.