Mike Frasier Law

To put that hard hit% into context, on the year he's at 61.0%, good for 3rd place and only one of three at or above 60%. The leader is at 61.8%. Last year's leader was Nelson Cruz at 52.5%. So 61.8% is ungodly. For the last 30 days, Sano is leading the pack at 65.9%!!!. Second is 61.5%. nearly 4.5% above second - the same gap as between 2nd place and 8th place on the leaderboard.

Fangraphs author digs up stats I've never heard of to argue that Maeda is on the verge of a massive break-out. https://tht.fangraphs.com/have-the-twins-found-an-ace-in-kenta-maeda/

Fangraphs just dedicated an article on Arraez: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-sui-generis/. Summary is because of his insane plate discipline, his lack of power is not the hindrance it seems. So long as he keeps putting balls in play all the time, he'll at least be an average offensive player. Average being his floor with this plate discipline

Arraez winning the batting title. I love it. If we could get a front-line starter by trading Lewis or Kirilloff, I think we have to do it. Particularly if it's for more than a year. Opportunities to with championships don't come around often for us. With our depth, we wouldn't be sacrificing the team's future by doing so.

I love to see three high-upside pitchers (in theory all potential ace starters) in the top 100. I know at least two seem destined to the bullpen, but it's not foregone. And they're not what I'm used to seeing - high likelihood of making MLB but limited upside.

I suspect it’s something like 4/86 with a $6m buyout or a $14m option. Guaranteed to get $92m

Is there a conversion of OAA to WAR or some other value we're used to seeing? When I see a -5, I'm trained to think that's worth about half a win, but I don't know if that's right. Anyone?

Pineda, and I think he can. Last year was his first after TJ, and the more he pitched, the better he looked. Here is his ERA and xFIP by month: April May June July Aug Sept/Oct ERA 6.21 4.50 3.58 2.59 3.52 2.25 xFIP 5.1 4.80 4.07 3.98 3.81 3.28 He increased his k/9 rate from 8.16 to 9.45 between halves. He dropped his HR/9 from 1.55 to 1.18. His second half k-BB% of 20.2% would have tied him with Robbie Ray for 15th in baseball. Berrios was 17.1% in 2019. I think Pineda has the skills and mental fortitude to be an ace. If he s

Agreed that Graterol won't pitch in the rotation all year, but I'd like to see the reverse - have him start in the rotation and move him to the bullpen when his innings exceed 120 or so.

I think Ryu is excellent when on the field. Considering owners likely have insurance policies covering significant injuries, it makes sense to me to go crazy here. I know this is a change of my own tune from a few days ago, but I think we need to adjust to the market. I'd do what it takes to sign him. 4/80? 4/90? If he's pitching, he's worth it. If he's not pitching, the Twins will need to find another starter at that point.

Cole: 7/260 Ryu: 3/60 (I'd prefer a 2/40 with team option) Bumgarner 4/85 and yes, i think each one is going to get more than that.

I feel like the combo signing of MadBum and Ryu would be ideal. Have one not-so-exciting workhorse and have another potential ace who won't be dependable to be on the field. If Ryu is ready to start the season but gets hurt early, he'll effectively be replaced by Big Mike in May. In the meantime, we'd have Odo, MadBum, Berrios every 5 starts, mixing in one of our exciting rookies when we can.

I feel like people forget that Big Mike was a badass prior to TJ and last year was his first year back. He'll be 31 and fully healed this year. In the three years with the Yankees prior to his TJ surgery, his line was better than Wheeler's career line: Mike: 9.5 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 1.4 hr/9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.24 xFIP. Wheeler: 8.72 3.24 .9 3.71 3.91 The last time Bumgarner had a lower FIP or xFIP was in 2016. Ryu has had better numbers, but is going to be 33. Last year he pitched 182 innings, but he's only pitched more than 82 innings in

I concur as well.

Fangraphs ranked him the #42 free agent and estimated a 2-4 year contract worth between $8-10m per year. They describe him as a lumbering power hitter with bad hands. Says "there's no margin for error here because of the defensive limitations" I say pass. I'd rather see one of our prospects manning 1B