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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Not sure if this is "fun" but it involves numbers. Our top 5 starting pitchers by fWAR are all currently on the DL: 1) Ryan 1.0 2) Paddack 0.9 3) Ober 0.9 4) Gray 0.9 5) Winder 0.5 How exactly are we still leading our division?
  2. Game day says injury delay and I’m freaking out. Who?
  3. I bet he was looking for a specific pitch in a specific location.
  4. I know sano isn’t hitting for ****. But another commentator pointed out how he doesn’t Swing and miss out of the zone. He has one hell of an eye.
  5. Damn. I thought I was going to be one of the first. I'm in for the long haul my friends.
  6. Those were my exact thoughts. I've been accused of having permanent rose-tinted contacts in when it comes to the Twins, but if Buxton is gone this year, I think I'm taking a year or three off watching baseball. At least MLB.
  7. Agreed. I also think trading Sano now would be likely a bad sell-low moment. He's not worth giving away and still has so much potential, even though he's incredibly frustrating.
  8. As much as I like aggressive promotion, he started the year in A+ and has only pitched 6.2 innings in AA. Looks like he strikes everyone out and doesn't give up HR though. What the hell, why not?
  9. Also Austin Martin? Fangraphs: "The best bat in the 2020 draft, Martin features a big league approach, outstanding contact ability and average power. The Blue Jays will figure out his defensive home as he keeps on raking." If true, that's two top-50 prospects in return
  10. There are currently 5 players (min 250 PA) with at least as many walks as strikeouts. Arraez is just shy. He's 24 walks to 27 strikeouts. Can he cross that threshhold by the end of the year?
  11. As of today, Miguel Sano has 15 home runs - behind only Nelly at 18. He also has -.3fWAR. If Nelly gets traded, it's possible for Sano to hit 4+ home runs and keep his fWAR negative. Can he finish at the team home run leader while being below replacement level?
  12. To put that hard hit% into context, on the year he's at 61.0%, good for 3rd place and only one of three at or above 60%. The leader is at 61.8%. Last year's leader was Nelson Cruz at 52.5%. So 61.8% is ungodly. For the last 30 days, Sano is leading the pack at 65.9%!!!. Second is 61.5%. nearly 4.5% above second - the same gap as between 2nd place and 8th place on the leaderboard.
  13. Fangraphs author digs up stats I've never heard of to argue that Maeda is on the verge of a massive break-out. https://tht.fangraphs.com/have-the-twins-found-an-ace-in-kenta-maeda/
  14. Fangraphs just dedicated an article on Arraez: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-sui-generis/. Summary is because of his insane plate discipline, his lack of power is not the hindrance it seems. So long as he keeps putting balls in play all the time, he'll at least be an average offensive player. Average being his floor with this plate discipline
  15. Arraez winning the batting title. I love it. If we could get a front-line starter by trading Lewis or Kirilloff, I think we have to do it. Particularly if it's for more than a year. Opportunities to with championships don't come around often for us. With our depth, we wouldn't be sacrificing the team's future by doing so.
  16. I love to see three high-upside pitchers (in theory all potential ace starters) in the top 100. I know at least two seem destined to the bullpen, but it's not foregone. And they're not what I'm used to seeing - high likelihood of making MLB but limited upside.
  17. I suspect it’s something like 4/86 with a $6m buyout or a $14m option. Guaranteed to get $92m
  18. Is there a conversion of OAA to WAR or some other value we're used to seeing? When I see a -5, I'm trained to think that's worth about half a win, but I don't know if that's right. Anyone?
  19. Pineda, and I think he can. Last year was his first after TJ, and the more he pitched, the better he looked. Here is his ERA and xFIP by month: April May June July Aug Sept/Oct ERA 6.21 4.50 3.58 2.59 3.52 2.25 xFIP 5.1 4.80 4.07 3.98 3.81 3.28 He increased his k/9 rate from 8.16 to 9.45 between halves. He dropped his HR/9 from 1.55 to 1.18. His second half k-BB% of 20.2% would have tied him with Robbie Ray for 15th in baseball. Berrios was 17.1% in 2019. I think Pineda has the skills and mental fortitude to be an ace. If he steps up next year, we're going to be scary good.
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