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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. Those were my exact thoughts. I've been accused of having permanent rose-tinted contacts in when it comes to the Twins, but if Buxton is gone this year, I think I'm taking a year or three off watching baseball. At least MLB.
  2. Agreed. I also think trading Sano now would be likely a bad sell-low moment. He's not worth giving away and still has so much potential, even though he's incredibly frustrating.
  3. As much as I like aggressive promotion, he started the year in A+ and has only pitched 6.2 innings in AA. Looks like he strikes everyone out and doesn't give up HR though. What the hell, why not?
  4. John Gant? Who is he? Looks like he can pitch at least
  5. Also Austin Martin? Fangraphs: "The best bat in the 2020 draft, Martin features a big league approach, outstanding contact ability and average power. The Blue Jays will figure out his defensive home as he keeps on raking." If true, that's two top-50 prospects in return
  6. There are currently 5 players (min 250 PA) with at least as many walks as strikeouts. Arraez is just shy. He's 24 walks to 27 strikeouts. Can he cross that threshhold by the end of the year?
  7. As of today, Miguel Sano has 15 home runs - behind only Nelly at 18. He also has -.3fWAR. If Nelly gets traded, it's possible for Sano to hit 4+ home runs and keep his fWAR negative. Can he finish at the team home run leader while being below replacement level?
  8. To put that hard hit% into context, on the year he's at 61.0%, good for 3rd place and only one of three at or above 60%. The leader is at 61.8%. Last year's leader was Nelson Cruz at 52.5%. So 61.8% is ungodly. For the last 30 days, Sano is leading the pack at 65.9%!!!. Second is 61.5%. nearly 4.5% above second - the same gap as between 2nd place and 8th place on the leaderboard.
  9. Fangraphs author digs up stats I've never heard of to argue that Maeda is on the verge of a massive break-out. https://tht.fangraphs.com/have-the-twins-found-an-ace-in-kenta-maeda/
  10. Fangraphs just dedicated an article on Arraez: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-sui-generis/. Summary is because of his insane plate discipline, his lack of power is not the hindrance it seems. So long as he keeps putting balls in play all the time, he'll at least be an average offensive player. Average being his floor with this plate discipline
  11. Arraez winning the batting title. I love it. If we could get a front-line starter by trading Lewis or Kirilloff, I think we have to do it. Particularly if it's for more than a year. Opportunities to with championships don't come around often for us. With our depth, we wouldn't be sacrificing the team's future by doing so.
  12. I love to see three high-upside pitchers (in theory all potential ace starters) in the top 100. I know at least two seem destined to the bullpen, but it's not foregone. And they're not what I'm used to seeing - high likelihood of making MLB but limited upside.
  13. I suspect it’s something like 4/86 with a $6m buyout or a $14m option. Guaranteed to get $92m
  14. Is there a conversion of OAA to WAR or some other value we're used to seeing? When I see a -5, I'm trained to think that's worth about half a win, but I don't know if that's right. Anyone?
  15. Pineda, and I think he can. Last year was his first after TJ, and the more he pitched, the better he looked. Here is his ERA and xFIP by month: April May June July Aug Sept/Oct ERA 6.21 4.50 3.58 2.59 3.52 2.25 xFIP 5.1 4.80 4.07 3.98 3.81 3.28 He increased his k/9 rate from 8.16 to 9.45 between halves. He dropped his HR/9 from 1.55 to 1.18. His second half k-BB% of 20.2% would have tied him with Robbie Ray for 15th in baseball. Berrios was 17.1% in 2019. I think Pineda has the skills and mental fortitude to be an ace. If he steps up next year, we're going to be scary good.
  16. Agreed that Graterol won't pitch in the rotation all year, but I'd like to see the reverse - have him start in the rotation and move him to the bullpen when his innings exceed 120 or so.
  17. I think Ryu is excellent when on the field. Considering owners likely have insurance policies covering significant injuries, it makes sense to me to go crazy here. I know this is a change of my own tune from a few days ago, but I think we need to adjust to the market. I'd do what it takes to sign him. 4/80? 4/90? If he's pitching, he's worth it. If he's not pitching, the Twins will need to find another starter at that point.
  18. Cole: 7/260 Ryu: 3/60 (I'd prefer a 2/40 with team option) Bumgarner 4/85 and yes, i think each one is going to get more than that.
  19. I feel like the combo signing of MadBum and Ryu would be ideal. Have one not-so-exciting workhorse and have another potential ace who won't be dependable to be on the field. If Ryu is ready to start the season but gets hurt early, he'll effectively be replaced by Big Mike in May. In the meantime, we'd have Odo, MadBum, Berrios every 5 starts, mixing in one of our exciting rookies when we can.
  20. I feel like people forget that Big Mike was a badass prior to TJ and last year was his first year back. He'll be 31 and fully healed this year. In the three years with the Yankees prior to his TJ surgery, his line was better than Wheeler's career line: Mike: 9.5 k/9, 2.0 bb/9, 1.4 hr/9 with a 3.82 FIP and 3.24 xFIP. Wheeler: 8.72 3.24 .9 3.71 3.91 The last time Bumgarner had a lower FIP or xFIP was in 2016. Ryu has had better numbers, but is going to be 33. Last year he pitched 182 innings, but he's only pitched more than 82 innings in 4 of the last 7 years, and 2 of those 4 were in 2013 and 2014. I think any of our current three starters has the ability to be an ace on any given day, and should be expected to pitch no worse than a #3 starter every time.
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