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Mike Frasier Law

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Everything posted by Mike Frasier Law

  1. This. Unless we are going to outspend everyone, we need to learn and take advantage of efficiencies better than everyone else. Otherwise, we're just hoping to strike gold.
  2. So 71% is average, 81% is above average, 90% is great, 95% is excellent. This is helpful context.
  3. I was doing the same exercise yesterday. Steamer projects us to hit 173 hr next year. I was trying to find a way to get them to 197 (most since the dome era), and it didn't seem crazy. I needed to come up with 24 more than projections. Here's what I came up with: Player Steamer My projection Sano 32 36 park 20 26 Dozier 20 25 Plouffe 17 24 Rosario 13 13 Arcia 11 11 Buxton 11 11 Mauer 9 10 Escobar 8 9 Murphy 6 7 Suzuki 4 5 Vargas 3 3 Kepler 3 3 Santana 3 3 Nunez 2 2 ABW 1 0 Polanco 1 0 None of that seems crazy, right?
  4. I think this explains a lot: Average pitch speeds: 2013/2014/2015 Fastball 92.3/92.0/90.7 http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/7450_P_FA_20150930.png
  5. OK. Mauer's had some huge years and some very bad years. Heck, in 2011, he was BELOW AVERAGE!!! (99 wRC+). He's obviously past his age peak, but he's not 40. I'm gonna go with his career line for 2015: 319/401/459. Interesting tidbit - even though he increased his k rates the last few years, over his career he has walked more than he has struck out. Just sayin'
  6. I have been called a Santana hater because I don't think its remotely possible he will repeat last year. That being said, I think there's another reason to believe his BABIP will not regress quite as much as people expect in addition to his speed. Parker points to his speed and hints at his ability to control the bat through bunting. In addition, Santana's line drive rate last year was 26%. That's pretty amazing. The league leader (among qualified batters) was Freddie Freeman at 26.7%. He had a BABIP of .338. Here's why that is awesome. In 2014, here are the results of balls put in play by batted ball type: Type Average ISO GB .239 .020 LD .685 .190 FB .207 .378 2014 Stats: LD% GB% FB% League 20.8% 44.8% 34.4% Santana 26% 45.9% 28.1% Because of his speed, he's turning the ground balls into singles. And because he's hitting more line drives than nearly anyone else, his batting average (and BABIP) should not regress to league average.
  7. Thanks for this. I'm very glad the world has low expectations of the Twins. Vegas has them at 68.5 wins, and I think that's just crazy. Here's something I don't understand though. I'm looking at Fangraphs projections, and it sees a significant improvement in our pitching for 2015. 4.45 runs allowed per game, down from 4.80 last year. But for some reason, the projections expect the Twins to score way fewer runs: 4.05 instead of 4.41 from last year. I'm not sure why. Even so, with those projected stats, our pythagorean record would be 74/88. If we score as many runs as last year (4.41 per game) but pitch as well as they expect (4.45 runs allowed per game) that is a 500 team.
  8. Santana walked 4.4% of the time. Kennys Vargas walked 5.1% of the time. Arcia walked 7.6%. Not the leadoff guy I want. I think Santana is a legitimate major leaguer. But his 353 OBP was driven ENTIRELY by his BABIP.
  9. I'd like to see this Mauer Dozier Hunter Arcia Plouffe Vargas Pinto Santana Hicks
  10. Wow. I'm a little surprised at all the negativity about this. There may be reason to complain if he's given a major league deal. Maybe. But a lefty that can strike out guys? Worst case scenario, he could be great out of the bullpen. My hope is that they sign him to a minor league deal and he gets some AAA coaching on more consistent grips and control.
  11. Interesting article. Another way to measure his affect on the team is to look at base running values. Fangraphs has a base running stat - scoring based on runs above or below average. in 2014, the Nationals led baseball with a 12.8 BsR. The Twins were third, with 10.0. (The White Sox were worth -10.5, FWIW). In 2013, the Twins were worth -5.3 BsR, good for 21st in baseball. Who's to say how much of that is the coach versus players, but it does lend some credence to the argument that Molitor added significant value to the team.
  12. Wouldn't that be a statement to the fan base about changing directions?! I doubt it will happen, but I can see how it would be a good fit. If he's signed for 2-3 years, he will be credited for everything our up-and-coming prospects accomplish in that time. If he enjoys working with young, high-upside guys on an underachieving team, our only competition is the Cubs. Go get him!
  13. I'd take that bet. Hughes's most notable improvement from 2013 was his walk rate, but he also struck out .5/9 more and increased his gb% by 6 points. I think those are notable improvements as well.
  14. If your question were whether I thought this would happen, that is an easy no. But I like the idea. Is it feasible to do what you suggest - meaning, are there any 25 and 40 man roster issues with it?
  15. Do you think those adjustments help account for his career best k% rate and nearly career best bb% rate? He's at 8.3% for both, which is a pretty solid k% rate (third best among qualified hitters in the league, led by Revere at 8.0%)
  16. I have zero problem with this. The Twins have plenty of money and this extension will not prevent them from doing anything in the offseason. Hopefully Suzuki will be a back-up for much of that time, while also being a mentor to Pinto and an insurance policy.
  17. Other than Suzuki (who apparently got extended) all the other players we fans would like to see gone are exactly the type to be traded in August.
  18. I wonder if the Twins plan on turning Pelfrey into a RP when he recovers. I think that would be a good move and could possibly save his career.
  19. I imagine BABIP captures what I've seen a few times. In looking through his game log, I found this interesting: 5/25 - BABIB .444 - His defense included Santana, Nunez, Parm outfield. 5/18 - BABIP .333 - OF of Kubel, Hicks, Parm 5/13 - BABIP .267!! - I can't tell who played CF, but the lineup included Nunez, Parm, Santana, Kubel and Escobar. I imagine three of those played OF, but it's hard to know who. 5/7 - BABIP .357 - OF of Kubel, Fuld, Colabello. 5/2 - BABIP .286 - OF of Kubel, Fuld, Colabello 4/24 - BABIP .391 - OF of Fuld, Hicks, Colabello 4/18 - BABIP .435 - OF of Mastro, Hicks, Colabello 4/12 - BABIP .200 - OF of Kubel, Hicks, Colabello 4/6 - BABIP .353 - OF of Kubel, Hicks, Bartlett!! 3/31 - BABIP .421 - OF of Arcia, Hicks, Willingham Point is that he's had some pretty bad OF defense behind him. Particularly bad for a flyball pitcher. It seems to me that since May, he's been pitching about how we should expect him to, and if we put a good defense behind him (a topic in another thread, I believe), we might actually see good results.
  20. Offensively (wRC+), he's had a similar season as billy hamilton and grady sizemore, and he's been more valuable than BJ upton, Jackie Bradley Jr, Will Venable, and Revere. By the same measurement, he's actually been above average (119 wRC+) over the last 30 days - granted, he hasn't had many at-bats. In that time, he's hitting .231/ .388 / .359. It's hard to say what his defense will look like by the end of the year, but I think he's given us reason to believe he can provide positive value. I hope his bat and defense will improve to the point where we could put him in RF, but if he never reaches that point, I think it's likely he will be worth more in trade value this offeseason than Revere was.
  21. Sano's elbow is barking again. http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/02/28/miguel-sano-to-have-elbow-examined-after-more-soreness/ Should I be scared?
  22. You say Ubaldo will have a high price tag. But if I remember correctly, the free agents that received qualifying offers last year had significantly repressed markets. Do you think that will happen with Ubaldo, and if do, do you think it increases the likelihood of the Twins signing him?
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