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BaseballTradeValues.com is your new favorite website

The other day I was listening to one of my go-to baseball podcasts, Effectively Wild. The hosts interviewed John Bitzer, creator of BaseballTradeValues.com. BTV is designed to simulate trades scenarios and estimate relative value of the players included, and the model incorporates variables like projected performance, prospect rankings, committed salary, inflation, years of control, aging curve, and roster flexibility.   The timing couldn't be better with the trade deadline fast approaching. I s

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

By the Numbers: The Twins’ Biggest Missed Opportunity

“Every artist gets asked the question ‘Where do you get your ideas?’ The honest artist answers ‘I steal them.’” - Austin Kleon   As Twins fans, we tend to look at roster moves through Twins-colored glasses. We know there are approaches to roster construction and talent acquisition outside of the Falvey/Levine mold and we try our best to keep track of them, but it’s difficult and time-consuming to monitor 29 other rosters for ideas the Twins could adopt. Unfortunately opposing players don’t have

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

Robbie Grossman and the Twins’ lefty problem

The Twins offense has been right around average so far in 2018, ranking 7th in the AL in runs scored per game and 9th in wRC+. It’s early, but if we assume that Logan Morrison, Robbie Grossman and Byron Buxton (once healthy) improve as the season progresses, and even if Max Kepler can’t maintain a 1.000 OPS and Ryan LaMarre isn’t the greatest hitter of our (or any) generation, the Twins offense should eventually settle closer to the top-5 offense they displayed in 2017.   But in order to do so,

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

Free Agent Starters By The Numbers Part II: WAR and Projections

It’s been another painfully quiet week for the free agent market, with Yu Darvish at the center of another series of rumors. Last week I wrote about how the top free agent options stack up by various rate stats, and it was clear by those metrics that Darvish stands well above the rest of the free agent pack – and well ahead of any of the pitchers currently slotted into the Twins rotation. But just how much might one of the “Big Four” impact the Twins’ projections for 2018? That is where we’ll tu

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

Free Agent Starters and Rotation Candidates: By The Numbers (Part I)

As we near the two week mark before pitchers and catchers report in Fort Myers, we're starting to see signs that this painfully frigid free agent market may be finally thawing. The Brewers staked their claim on a crowded NL Central with two big outfield acquisitions last week, and rumors abound that Yu Darvish is closing in on a decision that might open the free agent starter floodgates.   While we wait to hear whether Darvish picks the Twins or sends the front office scrambling for Plan B, let'

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

The Twins’ Pinch-Hitting Problem

One of the luxuries of being nine games over .500 at the All-Star break is the chance to take a closer look at some of the often-ignored corners of the roster for upgrades. Building a bench that can make a difference late in a ballgame is tough, and in fact most teams in baseball have struggled to do so in recent years, but no team has struggled to quite the extent that the Twins have. Let’s start by taking a look at how American League pinch-hitters have fared over the last five years: 2011: .2

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

The Impact of Arbitration

“Each year, the Twins have a group of players who are under team control but have accumulated enough major-league service time to be arbitration eligible. This means that the player and his agent have a say in the matter of compensation. Both the club and player submit figures that they believe will be fair, and then the two sides typically reach a compromise in the middle. In extremely rare cases where an agreement can’t be reached, an arbitrator hears the case and selects the figure offered by

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

Phil Hughes's Shot at History

As we near the end of yet another September stretch that's given Twins fans little incentive to tune in, our de facto staff ace Phil Hughes is about to give us one big reason to pop in the headphones at work on Wednesday: a genuine shot at history.   As reported by NBC's HardBallTalk on Saturday, Hughes currently sits at the highest single-season K/BB rate in baseball history going into his Wednesday start against the Diamondback. His 11.31 K/BB rate narrowly edges Bret Saberhagen's 1994 rate of

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

"We've got to take some pressure off our starters"

As reported by Jackson Alexander of MLB.com, Ron Gardenhire was quoted Thursday as stating that "we've got to take some pressure off our starters." While it's clear that the Twins' 28th ranked rotation (dead last in August) could use some help, it seems shortsighted to call out the offense, which despite two quiet nights at the plate has led baseball in most major categories this month.   The Twins' offense has been a force in August, leading baseball in runs scored, batting average, OBP, wOBA a

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

The 30-And-Under Experiment (Plus Joe And Glen)

It's over, folks. Time to throw in the towel. Again.   As we push past the trade deadline into the final 50-ish games of the season, conventional baseball wisdom would suggest that the younger players should be getting the majority of the plate appearances and innings. I say we throw caution to the wind.   Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that we find new homes for the likes of Willingham, Suzuki, Correia, and even Duensing, and let's also assume, as expected, that Twins Daily is given co

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

What is sustainable for Danny Santana?

My first exposure to Danny Santana was a spring game against the Red Sox in March. While I certainly remember his flashy play (1-3 with a 2B, a walk and a SB), it was a costly 5th inning fielding error, leading to a 2-run Red Sox rally that gave the defending champs the game, that stuck with me as a perfect example of the inconsistency of Santana’s young career.   That defensive inconsistency was the reason many assumed Santana’s first call-up in early May would be a short one, but he slammed th

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

Are we giving Aaron Hicks a raw deal?

I’ll start by saying that I’m not an Aaron Hicks lover. I can’t disagree with Rob Antony and Ron Gardenhire’s critique of his preparation, and I’ve always been an unabashed Denard Span guy (note: hugely excited that he ended up in DC, where I live now). But I do think we (the Twins-loving public) have been giving Hicks a raw deal by bashing the year he’s having.   First off, the easy part: let’s look at his OBP. I noticed today that, of the 32 major league center fielders that have 100+ plate ap

Greg Logan

Greg Logan

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