3 Reasons the Twins Keep Trading for Injured Pitchers

[Linus]

A couple of random thoughts. I have no complaints about not pursuing high dollar free agent pitchers. I think this philosophy is wise over the short and long term. 
I find it very ironic that they traded Berrios and he has been one of the healthiest starters in all of baseball. 

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

How is Lopez a disaster?

The other Lopez, the reliever from BAL. 

[Old fox]

The owners are not in the business of entertainment and thier business is banking. There is a big difference between the banking and entertainment sectors . 

[Cris E]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Steer, CES, and Polanco would look awfully nice in this lineup right now. The idea that they aren't paying much for these pitchers seems false to me. Those are 3 legitimate MLB bats that were traded for what may end up being 9 total starts from the starting arms they got back. I know they got more for Polanco, but I don't buy that DeSclafani was just some throw in on the deal. And even if he was, you shouldn't treat a rotation spot as a "throw in" on a deal. So either way I don't like it.

If the strategy worked out more often I'd be more willing to buy it as a smart strategy. But it hasn't worked out at all. At some point you need to look at the results and adjust your strategy.

Where would they look nice?  We're already parking Lee in St Paul, Julien is already posing some serious Hide The Glove questions and you think three more sketchy gloved 2b/3b would find playing time? Their value was determined to be higher as trade chips than as players and they were moved.

The strategy of trading from excess to bring in value is fine. Sonny Grey only had a couple full healthy seasons since 2016 before last year's performance and he's already hurt this spring in STL. Maybe we were lucky, or maybe you have to look at trades in the aggregate and not freak out over every injury. What did you say when Pineda performed well after we signed his broken arm in 2018? Maeda had a long history of breaking down as a starter and he held together pretty good for us. If Paddack pitches well this year will you come back and say this was smart?

You never know about injuries (except when you know: Descafani was a throw in because he's rarely healthy.)  You try a bunch of stuff and see what pans out. The real talent is being able to walk away from the Matt Shoemaker and Joey Gallo experiments before they wreck your season, and as an organization we're still working on that.

 

[Cris E]

(duplicate)

[joefish]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

How is Lopez a disaster?

Jorge, not Pablo. Right?

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Where would they look nice?  We're already parking Lee in St Paul, Julien is already posing some serious Hide The Glove questions and you think three more sketchy gloved 2b/3b would find playing time? Their value was determined to be higher as trade chips than as players and they were moved.

The strategy of trading from excess to bring in value is fine. Sonny Grey only had a couple full healthy seasons since 2016 before last year's performance and he's already hurt this spring in STL. Maybe we were lucky, or maybe you have to look at trades in the aggregate and not freak out over every injury. What did you say when Pineda performed well after we signed his broken arm in 2018? Maeda had a long history of breaking down as a starter and he held together pretty good for us. If Paddack pitches well this year will you come back and say this was smart?

You never know about injuries (except when you know: Descafani was a throw in because he's rarely healthy.)  You try a bunch of stuff and see what pans out. The real talent is being able to walk away from the Matt Shoemaker and Joey Gallo experiments before they wreck your season, and as an organization we're still working on that.

 

You just had a post on another thread about Wallner being a question mark as a hitter going into this year. Well Spencer Steer is the Reds starting LFer this year. Feels like he'd be a nice piece to have there. The Twins are going to be starting Carlos Santana against righties despite the fact that he hasn't hit righties in 3 years. CES as the DH feels like it'd be a nice piece (with Kirilloff at 1B vs righties). They miscalculated their value.

Yes, the strategy of trading from excess to bring in value is totally fine. Pitchers with known recent injury problems are not value. That's my point. The Twins have traded value from perceived excess and gotten none in return when it comes to these trades for injured pitchers. That strategy isn't fine. Sonny Gray was not on the IL just before they traded for him. There is a very real difference between the idea that all pitchers are injury risks and trading for Mahle who'd just been on the IL (for the record I actually supported the trade at the time) and DeSclafani who ended the year on the IL with a notoriously problematic injury. Pineda was signed to a multi-year deal with the knowledge that he was going to not play that first year. He didn't cost any prospects and wasn't being counted on. Mahle was traded for to boost their playoff run in 2022 and DeSclafani was traded for to be a rotation piece for 1 year. Those are not the same thing. What history did Maeda have of breaking down as a starter? That isn't the history I'm aware of. He was moved to the pen for the playoffs with the Dodgers because they had loaded rotations and he was an effective reliever for them. Maeda went on the IL on 3 occasions with the Dodgers, none of which had anything to do with his arm. If Paddack pitches poorly this year will you come back and say it wasn't smart?

Again, I don't buy the DeSclafani was a throw in idea. And if that's the case then I'm even more upset because teams hoping to make noise in the playoffs don't treat rotation spots as throw ins while trying to acquire a 32 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season for a heart of the order hitter. The Twins did walk away from Shoemaker, and didn't give up any prospect value to get either one of those guys.

Pitchers are all injury risks, but not all their risks are equal. The Twins have very clearly been willing to take on higher risks in the name of trying to get cheaper assets. Well they haven't come cheap in these trades and they haven't provided value. It's a bad strategy that hasn't worked out at all.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Cris E said:

Where would they look nice?  We're already parking Lee in St Paul, Julien is already posing some serious Hide The Glove questions and you think three more sketchy gloved 2b/3b would find playing time? Their value was determined to be higher as trade chips than as players and they were moved.

Steer mostly plays the OF now.  MLB.com rated him the 3rd best LFer in MLB.  A good RH hitting OFer would look pretty good on this team.  His flexibility to fill in at 3B/2B&1B would just be a bonus.  CES is primarily a 1B with the ability to fill-in at 3B on occasion.  CES has some proving to do but he was a beast the last 100ABs last season.  I would much rather have his ceiling than a 38 y/o player that is only going to be here for 1 year and it's hard to argue their value was a lot more than the absolute nothing we got for them.

Edit.  He was ranked 10th and I knew this.  Why I wrote 3rd, I have no idea.  Brain fart!

[awmonahan]

There's a difference between "all pitchers get injured", "pitchers with injury histories", and pitchers who are currently recovering from arm injuries. Mahle and DeSclafani were both in the process of recovering from arm injuries when the Twins traded for them. Both trades have proven to be mistakes and did so at lightning speed. Let's stop doing this. 

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You could have stopped after #1. All of these pitchers have to pass a physical to get traded in the first place. Is Duran an injured pitcher acquired in a trade now that he has had an injury?

Is this Duran's first injury?

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

will bring about the arguments that the Twins can’t develop pitching,

How long have they been here and how many starters have been developed? Ober and the verdict is still out on Varland, and nobody else, that by my definition is can't develop pitching.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't buy the DeSclafani was a throw in idea.

The alternative is the Twins front office is stupid.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The alternative is the Twins front office is stupid.

 The alternative, to me, is that they feel a market inefficiency is to take on extra injury risk to save money and possibly trade capital, and have been wrong. It hasn't worked at all to this point as they have spent significant trade capital and haven't gotten any results from the injured players.

Do you not question the idea of a team preaching deep playoff run aspirations dedicating a rotation spot to a "throw in?" I'd argue suggesting DeSclafani is a throw in is suggesting the Twins front office is "stupid." But maybe others think throw in rotation spots are how championship teams are built.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 The alternative, to me, is that they feel a market inefficiency is to take on extra injury risk to save money and possibly trade capital, and have been wrong. It hasn't worked at all to this point as they have spent significant trade capital and haven't gotten any results from the injured players.

Do you not question the idea of a team preaching deep playoff run aspirations dedicating a rotation spot to a "throw in?" I'd argue suggesting DeSclafani is a throw in is suggesting the Twins front office is "stupid." But maybe others think throw in rotation spots are how championship teams are built.

DeSclafani was pitching depth. All teams need 8 starters to get through a season. They were willing to put the better pitcher in AAA (Varland) in order to stockpile depth at the beginning of the season. They did it the previous season with Ober. I see trading for DeSclafani the same as adding Keuchel down the stretch last season. Nobody expected Keuchel to contribute in the postseason but he ate innings and gave Ober and Ryan each a chance to rest and recover.

The Polanco trade was not a short-term move to improve the team in 2024. If Topa is a flash in the pan they're going to lose the trade. He was the 2nd most valuable asset.

[SF Twins Fan]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The owners have fielded a team that's lost money 3 of the past 4 years. Their payroll was over $150MM last year. If the Twins spent $300MM, there'd be complaints they didn't spend $310MM.

Is this public information?  Can you provide me with a link that shows the Twins have lost money because I'd love to see a breakdown of their revenue vs operating expenses?

Yes, the payroll was over $150 million last year, and for the 1st time in 20 years the Twins finally won a single playoff game and also won a playoff series.  What do they do next? Slash payroll by $30 million when you have the chance to finally be a playoff contender.  The best way to increase revenue is to continually produce a quality product, which the BILLIONAIRES promised to do when receiving taxpayer money to build a new stadium.  In the 14 seasons since Target Field opened, they have fielded TWO 90 + win teams.  Not good enough.

They went the cheap route to trade for DeSclafani when they already have a question mark in Paddack, because if Paddack makes it through the full season I'll be shocked.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

Most big-name Free Agents don't want to come to Minnesota because of one reason. No committment to winning. When you continually go down the path of acquiring washed up veterans like Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy, Gallo, and broken players like Pineda, Paddack, Mahle and now DeSclafani how does that look? Giving out large contracts works if you are smart about it and give it to the right player. Did Correa come here because the Twins gave him the highest offer or was it because two other teams backed out? He wouldn't be here either had they not. Even his health was in question. 

You contradicted yourself within the same paragraph and tried to hand wave it away. This is such a silly narrative when it is known that big-name free agents target money first and location (family) second. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Steer mostly plays the OF now.  MLB.com rated him the 3rd best LFer in MLB.  A good RH hitting OFer would look pretty good on this team.  His flexibility to fill in at 3B/2B&1B would just be a bonus.  CES is primarily a 1B with the ability to fill-in at 3B on occasion.  CES has some proving to do but he was a beast the last 100ABs last season.  I would much rather have his ceiling than a 38 y/o player that is only going to be here for 1 year and it's hard to argue their value was a lot more than the absolute nothing we got for them.

Where do you see that?

Steer was one of the worst fielders in all of MLB last season and the Reds are doing their best to hide him in LF because CES is only fit to DH. Maybe CES would take the place of Santana, but the Twins value fielding and try not to lock down the DH spot so they can rotate guys in and out for rest. I doubt either of them would make the Twins' Opening Day roster. 

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

Is this public information?  Can you provide me with a link that shows the Twins have lost money because I'd love to see a breakdown of their revenue vs operating expenses?

Yes, the payroll was over $150 million last year, and for the 1st time in 20 years the Twins finally won a single playoff game and also won a playoff series.  What do they do next? Slash payroll by $30 million when you have the chance to finally be a playoff contender.  The best way to increase revenue is to continually produce a quality product, which the BILLIONAIRES promised to do when receiving taxpayer money to build a new stadium.  In the 14 seasons since Target Field opened, they have fielded TWO 90 + win teams.  Not good enough.

They went the cheap route to trade for DeSclafani when they already have a question mark in Paddack, because if Paddack makes it through the full season I'll be shocked.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/829590/minnesota-twins-operating-income/#:~:text=The Minnesota Twins reported an,dollars in the previous year.
2020 = -$49MM
2021 = $10MM
2022 = -$27MM at $151MM total payroll, avg. ticket $38.94 and 22.2k/game for total gate revenue $70MM
2023 = you'll have to extrapolate, the estimate is not published yet at $156MM total payroll. avg. ticket $40.61 and 24.3k per game for total gate revenue $80MM. Be generous and figure an extra $5MM in revenue from concessions/merch sales. So -27 + 15 - 5 = -$17MM before the playoff shares or changes to revenue sharing. Based on that, the Twins probably still lost a little in 2023.

[rv78]

I think we all can agree that acquiring pitchers that are currently experiencing injury issues is not a good strategy. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that. However, if you continually do it like this FO has been doing, then you maybe need to go see a good brain surgeon.

Yes, we all know DeSclafani was not going to be a "go to" guy come playoff time. I have no problem with adding depth at a position where you are thin, but first you need quality to fill that spot to start with. The Twins didn't do that. making it look like payroll was the contributing factor, yet there was plenty of money to be spent on more washed up, broken players or 1 year wonders that they always seem willing to take a chance on even though the odds for those players having a comeback type season are terribly bad. 

Regardless of how CES and Steer do for the Reds the Twins lost that trade cause they got NOTHIN from Mahle. Gray for Petty is yet to be determined and even with Gray being good for the Twins he only won 16 games in 2 seasons and 1 playoff game. I'd prefer they quit trading away prospects and use their payroll dollars much more effectively to fill needs and not backup depth pieces that do little to nothing to improve the team.

[Cris E]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You just had a post on another thread about Wallner being a question mark as a hitter going into this year. Well Spencer Steer is the Reds starting LFer this year. Feels like he'd be a nice piece to have there. The Twins are going to be starting Carlos Santana against righties despite the fact that he hasn't hit righties in 3 years. CES as the DH feels like it'd be a nice piece (with Kirilloff at 1B vs righties). They miscalculated their value.

Yes, the strategy of trading from excess to bring in value is totally fine. Pitchers with known recent injury problems are not value. That's my point. The Twins have traded value from perceived excess and gotten none in return when it comes to these trades for injured pitchers. That strategy isn't fine. Sonny Gray was not on the IL just before they traded for him. There is a very real difference between the idea that all pitchers are injury risks and trading for Mahle who'd just been on the IL (for the record I actually supported the trade at the time) and DeSclafani who ended the year on the IL with a notoriously problematic injury. Pineda was signed to a multi-year deal with the knowledge that he was going to not play that first year. He didn't cost any prospects and wasn't being counted on. Mahle was traded for to boost their playoff run in 2022 and DeSclafani was traded for to be a rotation piece for 1 year. Those are not the same thing. What history did Maeda have of breaking down as a starter? That isn't the history I'm aware of. He was moved to the pen for the playoffs with the Dodgers because they had loaded rotations and he was an effective reliever for them. Maeda went on the IL on 3 occasions with the Dodgers, none of which had anything to do with his arm. If Paddack pitches poorly this year will you come back and say it wasn't smart?

Again, I don't buy the DeSclafani was a throw in idea. And if that's the case then I'm even more upset because teams hoping to make noise in the playoffs don't treat rotation spots as throw ins while trying to acquire a 32 year old reliever with 1 good MLB season for a heart of the order hitter. The Twins did walk away from Shoemaker, and didn't give up any prospect value to get either one of those guys.

Pitchers are all injury risks, but not all their risks are equal. The Twins have very clearly been willing to take on higher risks in the name of trying to get cheaper assets. Well they haven't come cheap in these trades and they haven't provided value. It's a bad strategy that hasn't worked out at all.

Sonny Grey was not a healthy pitcher, and just because he wasn't on the DL when we signed him does nothing to change that.

September 20, 2022     Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list.      
June 2, 2022     Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day injured list retroactive to May 30, 2022. 
April 17, 2022     Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list.
March 13, 2022     Minnesota Twins placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list.
     July 8, 2021     Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list.
June 9, 2021     Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list.
April 1, 2021     Cincinnati Reds placed P Sonny Gray on the 10 day disabled list.    
September 13, 2020     Cincinnati Reds placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day injured list retroactive to September 11, 2020.
April 1, 2017     Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 10-day disabled list retroactive to March 30, 2017.     
August 7, 2016     Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day disabled list.
May 22, 2016     Oakland Athletics placed RHP Sonny Gray on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 21, 2016.

Maeda was similar with four DL trips in 2017-19, but Mahle between 2017-2122 was on the Reds DL once in 2019 and again in 2022.  As a strategy it mostly worked with Grey and Maeda but it didn't with Mahle, 

But I got to tell you, this is not an unusual plan.  Texas won the WS last year with a rotation of injured pickups DeGrom (ha), Scherzer (8 DL trips), Eovaldi (9 trips), Heaney (7 trips) and Montgomery (4 trips including a TJ surgery). It doesn't always work, but it can, especially if you continue to develop pitching on your own. 

You're probably hoping the Twins develop what PHI, HOU, AZ and ATL have been doing the past few years, where they have largely young, homegrown pitching staffs that stay healthy. it certainly looks awesome, but it's really hard to sustain. After this year the Braves are probably going to let Fried (10 Dl trips) walk, and they are still counting on Charlie Morton (12 maybe?) and they had to bring in Chris Sale (1000 DL trips since 2016) to carry their success forward.  The Dodgers have always been good at cranking out solid to excellent pitchers, though they do get hurt a lot (current 60 day DL includes Buehuler (5 Dl trips) Kershaw (14), Golsolin (6) and May (5) and when they do get hurt the team adds from outside, recently picking up Glasnow (5 trips) and Lynn (6 trips, plus three bereavement trips in the last couple years,) 

The common trait those teams have is that once they identify a reliable pitcher they sign him and keep him. If you want to complain about the Twins' front office then complain about them letting Berrios walk. But don't be too loud, as he's been kind of a mixed bag at the new $20m rate. And that gets to the heart of the acquisition strategy: they're only available if they're flawed or crazy expensive. And even the expensive ones are often flawed. But you still have to dip into that well to compete. With how hard these guys throw today they will get hurt and you will need a long and deep roster to get through a season. Any time you have a surplus of 2B or whatever you are almost obliged to trade them for arms. The closer players are to the majors the less uncertain they are, so you need to mix in both MLB/AAA guys and the 19 year olds to keep a solid stream going. I think they are doing that in MN, so grabbing Mahle at a high cost and Paddack at a lower cost and Ryan for a departing Nelson Cruz all show good sense even if they didn't all work out. 

I suppose you'd only trade for healthy pitchers? That means you're paying more and the risk is greater if/when they don't turn out. Everyone was screaming for Miami's Cabrera if we couldn't afford Luzardo, but Luzardo has had his own injury history and Cabrera is nursing a sore shoulder today. Where are these available young healthy stars and how many of our players are you farming out to get them? We had great results last year doing things this way, so your answer has to clear a high bar.

 

 

[SF Twins Fan]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/829590/minnesota-twins-operating-income/#:~:text=The Minnesota Twins reported an,dollars in the previous year.
2020 = -$49MM
2021 = $10MM
2022 = -$27MM at $151MM total payroll, avg. ticket $38.94 and 22.2k/game for total gate revenue $70MM
2023 = you'll have to extrapolate, the estimate is not published yet at $156MM total payroll. avg. ticket $40.61 and 24.3k per game for total gate revenue $80MM. Be generous and figure an extra $5MM in revenue from concessions/merch sales. So -27 + 15 - 5 = -$17MM before the playoff shares or changes to revenue sharing. Based on that, the Twins probably still lost a little in 2023.

I don't have access to that website.  Does it breakdown their expenses?  Net income, without a breakdown of expenses, is not an accurate indication of if a team actually made money or not.  There are so many ways to increase expenses to decrease their tax liability.  Depreciation and amortization are one way.  Are they fully expensing stadium updates in certain years to decrease their NOI?

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I don't have access to that website.  Does it breakdown their expenses?  Net income, without a breakdown of expenses, is not an accurate indication of if a team actually made money or not.  There are so many ways to increase expenses to decrease their tax liability.  Depreciation and amortization are one way.  Are they fully expensing stadium updates in certain years to decrease their NOI?

It's a free site, but you probably have cookies which prevents you from viewing stuff. I provided you with the data from a respected source as you requested. What you decide to do with the data is up to you.

[SF Twins Fan]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's a free site, but you probably have cookies which prevents you from viewing stuff. I provided you with the data from a respected source as you requested. What you decide to do with the data is up to you.

Does it break down expenses?

[Major League Ready]

33 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Where do you see that?

Steer was one of the worst fielders in all of MLB last season and the Reds are doing their best to hide him in LF because CES is only fit to DH. Maybe CES would take the place of Santana, but the Twins value fielding and try not to lock down the DH spot so they can rotate guys in and out for rest. I doubt either of them would make the Twins' Opening Day roster. 

I watched the run down on MLB TV.  They did multiple shows where they did the top 10 at each position.  Wallner and Schwaber did not make the list I saw.  

[Major League Ready]

26 minutes ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I don't have access to that website.  Does it breakdown their expenses?  Net income, without a breakdown of expenses, is not an accurate indication of if a team actually made money or not.  There are so many ways to increase expenses to decrease their tax liability.  Depreciation and amortization are one way.  Are they fully expensing stadium updates in certain years to decrease their NOI?

They can't just expense something to zero out NOI.  They have to follow IRS regulations.  You also make it sound like depreciation is some sort of a trick.  The expense is no less real because it's recognized over the course of more than a year.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

DeSclafani was pitching depth. All teams need 8 starters to get through a season. They were willing to put the better pitcher in AAA (Varland) in order to stockpile depth at the beginning of the season. They did it the previous season with Ober. I see trading for DeSclafani the same as adding Keuchel down the stretch last season. Nobody expected Keuchel to contribute in the postseason but he ate innings and gave Ober and Ryan each a chance to rest and recover.

The Polanco trade was not a short-term move to improve the team in 2024. If Topa is a flash in the pan they're going to lose the trade. He was the 2nd most valuable asset.

The massive difference being Keuchel signed a minor league deal and wasn't forcing a much higher upside arm out of the rotation. 

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The massive difference being Keuchel signed a minor league deal and wasn't forcing a much higher upside arm out of the rotation. 

DeSclafani only cost $4M. Starting pitchers you would actually want in your rotation get $12M.

Keuchel forced Varland out of the rotation, so he actually did.

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

DeSclafani only cost $4M. Starting pitchers you would actually want in your rotation get $12M.

Keuchel forced Varland out of the rotation, so he actually did.

He cost the Twins $4M, his total salary is actually $12M. That doesn't mean anybody should want him in their rotation.

Keuchel came up when Joe Ryan hit the IL. Varland forced himself out with an awful run in June last year. 

The point here was that handicapping yourself in the name of depth is counterproductive. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

27 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I watched the run down on MLB TV.  They did multiple shows where they did the top 10 at each position.  Wallner and Schwaber did not make the list I saw.  

This is literally the MLB Network graphic from when they put the list out a month ago for the 2024 season.

https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-network-top-10-right-now-left-fielders

I don't see any lists anywhere that have Steer in the top 10, much less #3. That would be crazy. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How long have they been here and how many starters have been developed? Ober and the verdict is still out on Varland, and nobody else, that by my definition is can't develop pitching.

Because doing this is easy and everyone in the league is doing it?  For the most part, pitching is in short supply all over and there are only a couple of teams that seemingly have sustained success developing a surplus.  It seems to me that it is quite a lot better than it was a few years ago, but perfection it is not.