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Earlier this week, the Twins announced multiple injury updates for pitchers who will begin the year on the IL. Jhoan Durán might be the most significant loss for the Twins, but the hope is that he can return in 4-6 weeks. For fans, Anthony DeSclafani’s injury might be the most frustrating, because it follows a pattern of the club acquiring injured pitchers (or injury-prone ones who lived up to their reputations almost immediately after arriving). Sam Dyson (12 appearances), Chris Paddack (five starts), and Tyler Mahle (nine starts) all have been limited after being acquired by the current front office. Even Kenta Maeda pitched fewer than 175 innings in Minnesota before needing to go under the knife.
Following the DeSclafani news, The Star Tribune’s Michael Rand wrote, “The Twins need to stop trading for damaged pitchers.” He went so far as to say this “represents a blind spot with the Twins’ brain trust.” On the surface, that seems like a simple enough premise for every front office should follow. However, it’s not as simple as it sounds for the Minnesota Twins and their place in MLB’s hierarchy. Let’s dive into why the Twins continue trading for distressed assets and how it will impact the team moving forward.
1. All pitchers have injury histories (or will have them)
The human body isn’t meant to throw a baseball with the velocity and movement used by major-league pitchers. Teams continue to find ways for players to throw harder, but that comes at a cost. Tommy John surgeries, once a career-threatening procedure, have become standard practice. Some pitchers, like Paddack, have the procedure multiple times. Elbow and shoulder issues have become so common that it seems like a matter of time before a pitcher misses time with an injury.
Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is arguably baseball’s best pitcher and has been a workhorse throughout his career. He has six seasons with over 200 innings pitched (a rare feat in baseball’s current landscape), and threw a league-high 209 innings in 2023. Now, Cole will miss time at the season’s start with elbow nerve inflammation, and he might not be back for 10-12 weeks. He’s one of multiple starters in the AL Cy Young voting (finishing place listed below) to be injured this spring. Sonny Gray (2nd place), now with the Cardinals, will miss Opening Day with a hamstring injury. Kevin Gausman (3rd place) is dealing with a shoulder issue in Blue Jays camp. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish (4th place) is working his way back from a sprained UCL. Every pitcher deals with injuries, even the league’s best arms.
2. The front office refuses to leverage the farm system for frontline starting pitching
As a mid-market team, the Twins need a healthy farm system to replace aging veterans who leave via free agency. This strategy has been standard practice since the Metrodome era, and it will continue to be true if ownership keeps payroll at its current level. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine could have packaged Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez together to get a top-tier starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. That scenario might help the team for the short term, but there would be long-term ramifications when the club runs short on big-league caliber prospects in the farm system.
Mahle’s trade was the team’s most prominent swing in terms of prospect capital, with Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar going to the Reds. Minnesota felt good about their depth in the minors at the positions those prospects played, which made them easier to trade. The front office also avoided trading from the team’s top-ranked prospects. There were better pitchers than Mahle available at the 2022 trade deadline, like Luis Castillo, but it would have taken much better prospects. Some fans might want the Twins to go all in to acquire starting pitching, but this front office refuses to leverage the farm.
3. Giving large contracts to starting pitching doesn’t always work in the team’s favor
Minnesota’s front office has attempted to sign some big-name free-agent starters in recent years, including offers to Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler. Both those players received higher offers from other organizations and preferred to play on the coasts. Wheeler has been terrific for the Phillies since signing, becoming a perennial Cy Young candidate and signing a second contract with them this spring for $126 million over three years. Darvish has had a streaky performance with San Diego while posting a 101 ERA+. Free agent deals tend to look worse over time, especially for players who reach their late- to mid-30s. The Twins also can’t afford to give a significant amount of their available payroll to a starter since the ownership group cut payroll by $30 million this winter.
The Twins’ best pitcher drafted and developed in the organization over the last decade was José Berríos. Minnesota’s front office tried to work out a long-term deal, but Berríos wanted to be paid like a frontline starter. After trading him to Toronto, the Blue Jays signed him to a seven-year, $131 million deal, and he struggled in 2022 (74 ERA+) before bouncing back in 2023 (116 ERA+). To get a frontline starter, the Twins were creative in trading for Pablo López and changing his pitch mix. Minnesota quickly signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension, which looks like a bargain compared to the Berríos contract. López and Berríos can both be All-Stars in the years ahead, but the Twins must be careful about how their money is spent.
It’s frustrating for fans to watch players get injured, especially those who seem to get injured shortly after putting on a Twins uniform. However, it’s not a “blind spot” for the current front office because injuries happen with pitchers across every baseball organization.
Do you agree with the above reasons? Should the front office be more cautious about their trade acquisitions? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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