This Free Agent Pitcher is the Solution to Twins' Anthony DeSclafani Injury

[Cody Pirkl]

Anthony DeSclafani won’t be ready to open the season; the Twins' sole external addition to the starting rotation may not throw a single pitch in 2024. Luckily, there’s a pitcher left in free agency who can save the day.

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Michael Lorenzen may be the best non-elite starter remaining on the market. In 153 innings last season, he posted a solid 4.18 ERA and was widely sought-after at the trade deadline, ultimately going from the Tigers to the Phillies. If the Twins can break the emergency glass and push payroll a bit more, Lorenzen could be a great final piece of the 2024 roster.

At this point, the Twins' primary concern with the rotation has to be how they’ll fill innings. DeSclafani likely wasn’t going to be a workhorse for them, but since he was the sole starting pitcher brought in this winter, it leaves them with a huge question mark. While Lorenzen isn’t on the level of Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, he can be a substantial addition, given the news.

After beginning his career as a reliever (and occasional outfielder-slash-pinch-hitter), Lorenzen converted to the rotation in 2022 and made 18 starts. He followed that up by making 25 turns through the rotation in 2024. At age 32, the training wheels should be off, and the Twins can feel comfortable letting him throw as many innings as possible, assuming his health and performance warrant it. His innings total last season would have ranked fourth on the team behind Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan, and it gives him a floor to build off of it even further in 2024.

Lorenzen may not start a playoff game, but he can take the ball every fifth day in a competitive team’s rotation. Since his conversion, he’s thrown 244 innings while posting a 4.27 ERA. His pitch mix includes multiple fastballs, a whiff-inducing slider, and a solid changeup, which gives him the requisite tools to turn lineups over when things are going right. Lorenzen put that on full display in 2023.

Of course, the question is whether the Twins are willing to go further than they'd originally allowed themselves, in light of their newly deepened need for a starter. Surely, they won’t fork over enough to pay Jordan Montgomery, and they were never going to be in on Blake Snell at the price for which he signed with the Giants, but if Lorenzen’s price has significantly dropped, the Twins should be willing to add a bit more to the payroll to ensure their rotation doesn’t completely collapse.

After making $8.5 million last year, would Lorenzen be willing to take $5-6 million to pitch in a situation with plenty of opportunity and a chance to compete? If so, the Twins should be willing to make one last bump to the payroll. It would still leave them $20 million and change below last year’s number and insulate the depth on the roster, as they’ve shown they love to do in recent years.

Louie Varland would still be stuck in St. Paul to begin the season, but he’d also be one of the best depth starters you could ask for, just like Bailey Ober in 2023. Instead of an injury leading to David Festa's debut, Varland can bring at least some experience to help stabilize the big-league roster. He’ll likely be up and pitching at Target Field in short order.

DeSclafani’s clouded health forecast has raised bright red flags on how the Twins can effectively fill innings in 2024. It’s arguably reached a point where they have to plan on not getting anything from him. The unusual market has left Lorenzen unsigned, even though a pitcher of his caliber should have already found a home. The Twins need to do what’s best for the roster, and Lorenzen would be the perfect final piece. Do you agree?

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[mikelink45]

I am not sure I can see the Twins making this move.  Their payroll stance has been adamant.  Get Louie ready. 

[Karbo]

Is he better than Varland? That's the question the Twins should ask if signing another starter.

[Brandon]

I don’t think Lorenzen would sign for less than 8 million.  I think he could get 10 million on a 1 year deal.  It’s the 2nd year he wants that is killing his market.  

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Is he better than Varland? That's the question the Twins should ask if signing another starter.

I can think of two other questions.  Will they get through the season with 5 SPs.  If not, are any of their prospects ready to pitch at the ML level.  SWR and Festa have looked pretty good so perhaps the answer is yes in which case is he better than Varland is a good question.  

[CRF]

I don't know if he's "better" than Varland, and I don't know if there needs to be some kind of comparison between them. I like Louie a lot and think he's going to be solid. I just think Lorenzen would be a good signing, even if it's just as a kind of an insurance policy. You can't convince me that the powers that be, aren't able to cough up another $20 mil over two years for him. That's chump change these days. 

[LewFordLives]

I'm not the biggest supporter of this front office, but even I can't believe they were dumb enough to think they were going to get any meaningful innings out of DeSclafani. While I think they need another starter, I don't think they believe that. Otherwise they would have done it by now.

[laloesch]

Just go with Varland from the start.  He got his feet wet in 2023.  I'd rather see him take his lumps with the major league club than sign more filler starters that won't be with the club beyond this season.  If Desclafani is down most of the season, they might as well go with the long term plan, which i assumed was Varland. 

[Brett]

We’re asking a lot of Paddack and Varland to make 30 starts each, based on their respective track records. We’ll need at least 8 starters over the course of the year, not counting the doubleheader specials. Thinking of people we can honestly see making 5-10 starts each…Festa and SWR, sure. Then who? Canterino?

[Althebum82]

Clearly he has made a name for himself as a competitive MLB starter.  Somebody will reach a point of desparation and sign him.  It won't be the Twins, and given his demands compared to what I see for his value, I am okay with that.  

The free agent market a few days before the season's start is a scary place to look for help.  I would rather trust our internal developmental candidates to find the impact if we are unable to do so via a trade.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

29 minutes ago, CRF said:

I don't know if he's "better" than Varland, and I don't know if there needs to be some kind of comparison between them. I like Louie a lot and think he's going to be solid. I just think Lorenzen would be a good signing, even if it's just as a kind of an insurance policy. You can't convince me that the powers that be, aren't able to cough up another $20 mil over two years for him. That's chump change these days. 

This. It isn't about comparing Varland and Lorenzen. The Twins need pitching depth for the rotation. They were incredibly fortunate last season. If there's an injury to the current group of 5, you have SWR waiting in the wings but who else? Falvey and Levine talked about rotation depth when they acquired Desclafani so I'm presuming that they see the need. Unfortunately, I don't know if the need will be enough to prompt them into breaking the payroll restraints and signing Lorenzen or anyone else.

[Patzky]

8 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Clearly he has made a name for himself as a competitive MLB starter.  Somebody will reach a point of desparation and sign him.  It won't be the Twins, and given his demands compared to what I see for his value, I am okay with that.  

The free agent market a few days before the season's start is a scary place to look for help.  I would rather trust our internal developmental candidates to find the impact if we are unable to do so via a trade.

These are the Mahle Days of March 

[Hrbeks Divot]

If ownership is willing to expand payroll then a one year deal..not multiple…for Lorenzen makes sense. If not, I’d like to see them give Varland a shot. The upside of more than a fifth starter is there with him. If we’re only worried about filling innings with a fifth starter there will be plenty of those guys hanging around in another month like Hill, Keuchel, etc. 

[Fatbat]

As much as we don’t want to get thin at SP, are we actually thin right now? I would say not at the moment. Festa and SWR have looked really good. There is also Headrick, Canterino and Dobnak. Thats a pile of guys that can all get 5-10 games. We also have late season cameo appearance possibilities in Raya, Culpepper and Cory Lewis.  We got guys. If we aren’t going to spend money on a playoff starter, find one out of this pile. 

[Doctor Gast]

When we entered the off-season, the #5 SP was not a need, So losing DeSclafani did not create any void and FA is not the solution. FA will not solve our true problem anyway. In-house- Varland, SWR, Headrick, Festa, etc, are more than enough to help us win the division crown. If we need added insurance, sign Rich Hill to a minor league deal.

[chpettit19]

A lot of people way more confident than I am that the Twins have adequate starting pitching depth right now. SWR, Festa, Headrick, et al have a far better chance of being Winder, Sands, and Balazovic than they do of being useful MLB starters. How long are Thielbar and Duran going to be out? The Twins are on shaky ground on the pitching side to start the season. Better hope the offense gets rolling early, and Lopez, Ryan, and Ober can carry them on the arms side.

The season ended so well I think people forget how questionable this team was for most of the season last year. The Twins were 54-53, with a .5 game lead in the division, at the end of July last year before going into the easiest schedule in baseball for the last 2 months. They were 45-46 at the break, down .5 games in the division. They were the team able to maintain slightly better than .500 ball the last couple months while the others cratered, but this team wasn't that different than the 2022 team that went the other way for the majority of the season. This team isn't a shoe-in for the division, let alone playoff success.

This team needs another arm. Whether it's Lorenzen or Clevinger or some other less than stellar, but still proven, MLB arm. I don't expect them to sign any because I think they've tapped out every last penny the Pohlads will spend this year. I know Lewis, Julien, and Wallner have everyone excited about young guys succeeding early, but that's not the norm. They had to go to young guys in 2022 and we all remember how that turned out. I'm excited the season is finally upon us, but I'm far less confident in the depth being able to help this team advance in the playoffs than many others around here seem to be.

[Karbo]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I can think of two other questions.  Will they get through the season with 5 SPs.  If not, are any of their prospects ready to pitch at the ML level.  SWR and Festa have looked pretty good so perhaps the answer is yes in which case is he better than Varland is a good question.  

I believe that answer is yes, they are ready, at least they better be!

[HrbieFan]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don’t think Lorenzen would sign for less than 8 million.  I think he could get 10 million on a 1 year deal.  It’s the 2nd year he wants that is killing his market.  

This could be a great opportunity to add a quality arm for 2 years if that is the case. 2 years at say $7m per would be a bargain 

[baul0010]

I used to hate everything about Trevor Bauer.  However, it does seem like he has turned a corner as far as his immaturity goes.  From all accounts, teammates like him, he's a hard worker, and his stuff will still play.  I know he had some legal issues, but that seems to have cleared.

Since he is looking for a low risk deal from a team with incentives, why isn't he an option?  He could be the man we need to step into the number 2 role that Gray vacated.  I know I must be missing something since no team seems to want to touch him with a 10 foot pole.  At least from my limited knowledge of his situation, it appears he's paid his dues.  

[stringer bell]

While I think there's probably a <10% chance that they will sign Lorenzen, I think it might be a good move. He has ample experience in the bullpen, so he could be shifted there if there are better options in the rotation and he could perhaps be that much coveted multi-inning reliever Rocco is always looking for. 

The Twins certainly need to go at least eight deep in starters, probably nine or ten and right now, including Varland, they have five plus SWR and Festa. I don't want to see Dobnak or Headrick starting games for the Twins in August, but without reinforcements, I think that is what we are looking at. 

[DJL44]

No team ever has enough pitching. I like the Twins 7th starter better than what I see from Detroit or Kansas City.

[adorduan]

That's a pretty neat trick to make 25 starts before the season begins.........

[Cody Pirkl]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Is he better than Varland? That's the question the Twins should ask if signing another starter.

I think its at least close. I'm confident in saying DeSclefani wasn't going to be better than Varland, but he had the job all but locked up anyways. Much like Ober starting last year in St. Paul, it's not about picking the marginally better pitcher this early. It's about making sure you can make it through the whole season and fill the innings that need to be filled.

If Chris Paddack has to make a trip to the IL in May, I don't think we want the first call up to be David Festa. If two injuries hit, then it's what, Simeon Woods-Richardson? That would made the rotation a huge weakness.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

As much as we don’t want to get thin at SP, are we actually thin right now? I would say not at the moment. Festa and SWR have looked really good. There is also Headrick, Canterino and Dobnak. Thats a pile of guys that can all get 5-10 games. We also have late season cameo appearance possibilities in Raya, Culpepper and Cory Lewis.  We got guys. If we aren’t going to spend money on a playoff starter, find one out of this pile. 

Festa is the only one that moderately interests me in this group if they need a pitcher early in the season. SWR was really bad last year. Headrick seems like an up and down long reliever type. Canterino is currently injured himself, and Dobnak hasn't been anywhere near the guy he debuted as since he hurt his finger.

You can squint on some of these guys and see a scenario where they're passable MLB starters, but that's not how you want a competitive team's rotation to look in the middle of the season.

[FlyingFinn]

Glass half full - Lopez, Ryan and Varland are workhorses and will be ready every start. Paddack's and Ober's injuries are behind them and Paddack will only be internally limited by total innings pitched. Festa and SWR will be ready and pitch okay.

Glass half empty - Lopez hasn't pitched well this spring, Ryan got hurt last year, Varland is a rookie, Paddack's and Ober's injuries will return. Festa and SWR aren't ready yet. Our bullpen will return to having to cover 4-5 innings per game like in 2022 and will fade as the season goes on (the bullpen was taxed in 2022 but I don't think they actually faded, if I remember correctly).

I believe we could use Lorenzen for depth. I think we have reached the internal cap limit. That is, until July. If we are in contention, I believe there will be an additional amount that can be spent at that time.

[Fatbat]

@Cody Pirkl I agree with your assessments. My argument is, do you roll with what we have right now or do you go out and get Monty. Just another bandage guy isn’t anything more than what we have in our system already. Its just another arm. 
DeSclafani only had #5 spot because Varland has options.  Just like if we spent $ on SPx at this point. x would get #5 until x failed somehow. If we are going down that road, why not ride a thoroughbred in Monty instead of any broken down SPx. 

[BsuNemo]

I'll just echo what others have said - I have full confidence that Paddock could be very good, I don't have full confidence that he can make it through the entire year without issue. Ober has had issues, Ryan has had issues.  Even Lopez has had issues in his career.  We can't have 5 starters and then dig through the minors hoping to connect.  I think someone like Lorenzen lessens the blow if we do have someone go down for any sort of time.  Also, I know most want to see Varland as a starter but with Duran out for probably all of April, I'm not opposed to Varland crushing the 8th inning either.  His stuff definitely played up out of the pen last year.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Enough with the discussion of the Twins increasing payroll.  Not gonna happen.

[nicksaviking]

Another guy where we have to look at a half season of ERA and forget about everything else? Hard pass on Lorenzen, he won't help this team. Consider this is a guy with a brutally low ability to miss bats and a high groundball rate. That means that Julien, Jeffers and Kirilloff are probably sitting every one of his games for Farmer, Vazquez and Santana. Now, not only do you have a sketchy pitcher on the mound, but you have your B lineup on the field hitting as well. 

Huge net negative.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

How different is this to when Mahle went down last year?  We have a young guy waiting in St. Paul who is largely unproven that can step in just like we did last year.  It certainly worked fine and there’s a solid chance it will again.  That’s one of the reasons that the Twins acquired an “extra” starter.  Now that someone is injured (coincidentally the guy we acquired to be the “extra”), we plug in the next guy.  

I also think that it is in our best interest to have some starts by SWR, Festa, and Headrick this year.  I would rather not have it be at the end of the season with the division on the line, but at some point those guys need to have a shot to see what they can do and so that the Twins can know what they can do.  The odds of at least one of those guys being solid are pretty good, yet some are treating potential starts from them as being a disaster for the team.  

The payroll isn’t increasing, so the big guns aren’t coming in to save us, and we have our own little guns that are just as capable as the ones we might be able to sign by having a bake sale.