Is the Twins' Austin Martin Ready to Drive?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins face payroll constraints, as they try to build a division winner again in 2024. They need an outfielder with some versatility and athleticism, who can add right-handed offense. Is their best bet to turn to the centerpiece of one of their biggest trades in years?

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When Derek Falvey decided to send Jose Berrios north (er, technically, east-southeast, but you get the idea) in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, many were impressed with how much Minnesota got back. They not only wrested away pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, but netted former fifth overall pick Austin Martin. The value was considered substantial then, and Berríos needed a long-term contract.

Fast-forward to where we are now: both players have seen their stock drop since joining the Twins organization. Woods Richardson has made his debut, but the results have been all over the place. Martin fell off Top 100 lists quickly, after topping out at 19th for Baseball America; a disappointing Double-A season in 2022 did most of that damage.

By the end of last year, though, Martin was on a tear for the St. Paul Saints, and he even looked like a potential late-season option for the Twins. Playing in only 67 games as he navigated a potential Tommy John issue, Martin took some time to settle in. Ultimately, he posted a very strong .387 OBP with St. Paul, and his 43-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio could benefit Rocco Baldelli’s lineup.

To this point, Martin’s power potential has not germinated. Minnesota attempted to make swing changes in 2022 with that in focus, but it led to disastrous results. Now, back to being a contact hitter with a remarkable ability to put the bat on the ball, he has never looked closer to making an impact at the highest level.

Drafted as a shortstop, that is the position where Martin may now have the least amount of value. He has since become something of an up-the-middle specialist. Logging time at second base and even more in center field, his defense on the grass may be most valuable. That has plenty of room to work for a Twins team that constantly needs contingency plans around and behind Byron Buxton, no matter how optimistic they feel about him at the moment.

It seems safe to assume that the offseason moves ahead include an outfielder capable of playing center. While Buxton hopes to be healthy this year, we haven’t seen that in some time. Michael A. Taylor got most of the starts there last year, but is looking for a new home on the open market. Nick Gordon and Willi Castro can play the spot as utility types, and Martin gives Minnesota a third option. As Hunter McCall wrote on Thursday, those three are the top candidates for a utility role the Twins love to cultivate and on which they depend heavily.

Both Castro and Gordon remain with the Twins, having been offered contracts through arbitration. Gordon shouldn’t make much more than $1 million this season, and though Castro will be about three times that, he earned the bump with a very nice 2023 season. Martin isn’t going to replace either of them on the Opening Day roster, but he could challenge both early on in 2024.

Across his final 37 games at Triple-A last year, Martin owned an .888 OPS with a almost perfect parity in his strikeout and walk rates, plus five home runs. The power was a fun development, but even if that doesn’t stick, Martin found the same process that produced high batting averages at Vanderbilt. Having shown great defensive chops in St. Paul, he could roughly replace Taylor's glove, with an opportunity to be an offensive upgrade.

It might be unfortunate that Martin is no longer the star shortstop prospect, but if he becomes the next in the line of usable utility types for Minnesota, that also has plenty of value. The ability to play second base becomes a feather in his cap, but an ability to excel in center may be something the Twins need even more.

Martin will come into spring training with an opportunity to impress. He’ll be given starts at Triple A, with the chance to push for more. How quickly he moves across town will depend on the results, but it shouldn’t be long, and he may wind up being just what Minnesota needs for a spark in 2024.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I can absolutely see him on the opening day roster. Frankly, if both are healthy, I have him in over Gordon.

I also could very well see a scenario that he gets a lot of playing time this year, and that being a good thing. 

[Doctor Gast]

Great job Ted! What has held Martin back isn't himself it has been miss evaluation. He was a 3B man at Vandy, normally prospects go down positional wise not go up, Yet Toronto & MN persisted him being a SS, they should have known right away the he wasn't  a SS, that took time away from him to learn CF. Martin has a natural line drive swing that could hit home runs. MN tried to covert him into a slugger, big mistake, it threw him off. When Martin reverted back to himself things changed. Even when he doesn't hit HRs he often stretches singles into doubles, double into triples (not sure if he has turned a triple into a HR but he surely can) by taking that extra base & stealing. He's an OB machine by not being afraid to get HBP or taking BBs.

During AFL Martin was out hitting Julien until he got HBP. He still had a very good showing at the AFL also showcasing his potential of playing CF. IMO Martin will have a very good ST but knowing the Twins he'll be sent down. IMO Twins will be careful with Buxton & Buxton won't start out at CF & Castro & Gordon will cover there but Martin will be promoted soon not because Castro or Gordon would be that bad but Martin will shine at AAA. Martin has the talent, spunk & grit to play in the MLB & thrive. He's a classic lead off hitter.

[Otaknam]

I’m hoping Martin has a biggggg spring and makes the team, and that his speed and glove show  him to be an excellent outfielder to back up Buxton. Having a speedy line drive contact hitter who can draw walks and steal bases  is an asset that is too often undervalued by analytics guys who love power,  launch angle and home runs. Martin and Castro on the bench give the team lots of options defensively and as pinch runners who can swipe a base. Those skills are in short supply these days and should be appreciated. 

[Nashvilletwin]

I agree - it’s time to see what we have in Martin at the MLB level.  If that is not the plan, then we owe it to him to trade him so he can get his chance (after all, we blew up his swing and decreased his value). He’s a really good baseball player and could be more than just a utility player (especially if we move all or some of Polanco, Kepler and Farmer),

Our FO gets a lot of credit, and deservedly, for how the Lopez-Arraez deal played out in year one.  However, their other two “big” headliner trades (the Mahle and Berrios deals) do not look good at all.  Give Martin his chance and try to save some face (not that anyone is giving up on SWR, but there is a long way to go there). 

[Jeff K]

The only disagreement I have with this article is that Gordon is surely ahead of Martin for the start of the season.  Gordon has much to prove.  We can not ignore the dreadful start to last season.

[Karbo]

IMO he ranks higher than Gordon. He has a record of high OBA, he can run, steal bases, hits RH, and doesn't K much. Gordon has more power potential, K's too much, and has speed but doesn't steal bases. Give the guy with a higher ceiling (Martin) a chance to see what he's got. Is he part of the future for this club?

[saviking]

Strong defense, speed, good on base percentage good baT control.

I think it's just a matter of when, not if.

[awmonahan]

Power is great, but I think the best version of Martin adds a dimension to the lineup. Rather than rolling out another swing for the fences type, Martin would diversify the lineup's batting approach and challenge a starter to pitch differently. I really hope he is given a solid shot and can run with it. 

[TL]

He could also be a long-term answer in LF as a guy in the mold of Shannon Stewart. If Buxton is healthy that seems like a nice fit with Martin's ability to get on base. 

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

I’m hoping Martin has a biggggg spring and makes the team, and that his speed and glove show  him to be an excellent outfielder to back up Buxton. Having a speedy line drive contact hitter who can draw walks and steal bases  is an asset that is too often undervalued by analytics guys who love power,  launch angle and home runs. Martin and Castro on the bench give the team lots of options defensively and as pinch runners who can swipe a base. Those skills are in short supply these days and should be appreciated. 

Bingo - The big key is his performance in Spring Training, with maybe some time proving himself in St Paul  (even if he has done well in ST).    Austin Martin has had periods where his performance has been disappointing, and he needs to show sustained improvement.  

[roger]

Great article, thanks Ted.

Seems Martin's play late last year has a lot of us excited about what is to come.  I expect he will begin his season at St. Paul.  Hopefully, he will play as well as he did late last year.  That would make him the replacement needed when/if Buxton is out for some time.

I see Castro and Gordon as the fill ins when Buxton needs a rest early in the season.  That's assuming Buxton is able to be their opening day starter in center who plays at least 4-5 games a week.  But sure like the idea that Martin could come up and hit for average with a lot of walks for a big OBP.  Add in the speed and D and he can be a big part of the Twins future.

[Fatbat]

Comparing Martin’s skill set to anyone available to bring into the organization, the biggest negative for Martin, is no MLB time. The Twins NEED everything that is in his tool box, they just need to trust that his game will play on varsity.  With the stacked farm system that we have, its a waste to not get him and others that will be ready this year and next to the big show. If that means by 2025 that Polo, Kep, Gordon and Farmer are gone, thats ok because we have guys with better skills coming. Save $$$ from those salaries and buy pitching. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I agree - it’s time to see what we have in Martin at the MLB level.  If that is not the plan, then we owe it to him to trade him so he can get his chance (after all, we blew up his swing and decreased his value). He’s a really good baseball player and could be more than just a utility player (especially if we move all or some of Polanco, Kepler and Farmer),

Our FO gets a lot of credit, and deservedly, for how the Lopez-Arraez deal played out in year one.  However, their other two “big” headliner trades (the Mahle and Berrios deals) do not look good at all.  Give Martin his chance and try to save some face (not that anyone is giving up on SWR, but there is a long way to go there). 

The Tennessee connection to Martin seems strong. He hurt his arm, unfortunate, the Twins didn’t. He’ll get a shot by June/July this summer & maybe sooner if he shines. The organization wants performance on the big club, period. There’s no giving players opportunities to see how it works out - there is need to promote because of a VOID in the roster or because a player’s PERFORMANCE at AAA warrants he be moved up.

Sorry to be using only Martin as the example. I’m tired of the lack of respect guys that are performing in The Show get and the constant need for people here in TD wanting to see how “youth might work out”. Guys that are over 28 don’t need to be recycled somewhere other than on the Twins roster.

Castro - Solano - Taylor - Farmer held the club together last year and then the appropriate injection of Julien - Wallner - Lewis built a tremendous momentum! Saying Martin should be traded to be fair to him after 1.5 healthy years in our system, so that he can have a chance, seems dramatic.

I fully expect him to be playing regularly for the Big Club by mid-season if he hits anywhere near what he did over his last 40 games in St Paul in ‘23. He is team’s insurance in CF when Buxton crumbles or it’s deemed he can only play there once a week.

If Gordon gets traded - a real possibility, he may make the team right out of Spring Training. Expect him to be regular contributor by the deadline.

[ashbury]

Is there any evidence for or against the idea that Martin will be, you know, actually good in center field?  I mean, Chris Parmelee was given some innings in CF too, once upon a time.  I know he's reputedly fast, but does Martin take good routes?  Does his weak infield arm somehow play up as an outfielder?

[pierre75275]

I would like to see him with the big club sooner rather than later. It would be interesting to see what him and Julien could do batting at the top of the lineup or 9,1.

 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

Is there any evidence for or against the idea that Martin will be, you know, actually good in center field?  I mean, Chris Parmelee was given some innings in CF too, once upon a time.  I know he's reputedly fast, but does Martin take good routes?  Does his weak infield arm somehow play up as an outfielder?

I only saw him play CF in a handful of games but he looked pretty good.  I thought he was a little better coming in as opposed to going back but it was a SSS.

[stringer bell]

22 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Is there any evidence for or against the idea that Martin will be, you know, actually good in center field?  I mean, Chris Parmelee was given some innings in CF too, once upon a time.  I know he's reputedly fast, but does Martin take good routes?  Does his weak infield arm somehow play up as an outfielder?

Good questions Ash, as usual. I think Martin is unproven as an outfielder, but reading between the lines, the Twins seem to believe in his skill set to project him as  a plus major league outfielder. We shall see. I think the lack of experience in the outfield will get him a ticket to St. Paul, but he might not stay there long. 

I can see a role for Martin as a center fielder, left fielder and second baseman. Those are precisely the positions that Nick Gordon has played for the Twins. It might come down to a battle between Gordon and Martin and I like what Martin has to offer much more than Gordon. (BTW, check sprint speeds and you will find that Nick is a 50th percentile runner, exactly average--he is not fast). 

Having Martin available to play center and left and maybe get some starts at second against left handed pitching would give the Twins a bump in speed and contact and perhaps increase their production against lefties. I hold out hope that he wins a regular job with the Twins, but it is up to him to show that he deserves that much playing time.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, TL said:

He could also be a long-term answer in LF as a guy in the mold of Shannon Stewart. If Buxton is healthy that seems like a nice fit with Martin's ability to get on base. 

I really like his fit there too

[South Dakota Tom]

It's dominoes for sure for Austin Martin.  Projecting a starting 9 of Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Wallner, Buxton and Kepler + DH (let's say Polanco) leaves 4 spots for fielders.  That's Vazquez, Castro, Farmer, plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda.  If one of those players is traded (and the likeliest are Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez, but if it is catcher, we'd need to add a catcher), then we'd add the second of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, and if it is two of them, then all 3 of those guys (you know, barring the acquisition of a major-league position player) are on the opening day roster.

A high ceiling, but I'd rather have Martin for 10 cents on the dollar versus Kiermeier and put the dollars and/or minor league depth into controllable pitching.  Same as the return I'd like to get from trading any of the aforementioned candidates.

[Blyleven2011]

The twins need a spark in the lineup  , if he hits like he did late in the season at AAA , there is no reason not to have his bat in the twins lineup at top of the order with Julien ( if neither is traded ) ...

If he can play left field and centerfield  his value will finally come to fruition ...

The shoulder and Tommy John scare concerns me , let's hope rest and physical therapy  has help mend his injury concerns  ...

[mnfireman]

I think we would have seen him last season if not for the injury, he seemed to find his game in the AFL much like Lewis after his disastrous 2019 MiLB season. He wasn't Julien good, but he outplayed the Reds' Matt McClain, who finished 5th in ROY voting after this season.

If Gordon and/or Larnach (maybe Farmer??) are moved this off-season, we may have our answer as to what the team thinks of him. 

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can absolutely see him on the opening day roster. Frankly, if both are healthy, I have him in over Gordon.

I have him over Gordon as well - and don't understand the belief that he and Castro both need to be utility role players on the 2024 roster. There are plenty of things that are off-putting about Gordon - lack of power, not a strong outfield throwing arm, very few walks, quite a few strikeouts. Even in his 'breakout' 2022 season, his OPS was petty close to league average at .743. Granted, his OPS+ was 111, but then let's talk about last year, which was a disaster, even before he got hurt. Sure, he offers positional flexibility, but he's 27, so the Twins pretty much know what he is. With a 1.4 WAR in nearly 700 at bats, that's not a lot.

[PatPfund]

Right now I see Austin Martin as the current Plan A for CF. (A situation that could change quickly with an added veteran.) I'm aware he isn't proven yet, and like all young players he needs reps, but I'd let him come to ST, just play him in CF (we don't need more backup IFs; we DO need a CF), and give him a chance to make the team. If he looks ready, then go north with him. He might have to go down one or more times, but we might as well start that process ASAP. His defense in CF looked really good last year (better than the IF work). There was similar 'he's not quite ready' buzz about Julien last year, but when he got called up for spot duty, it turned out he was too good to send back.

Byron is a fantasy there until he physically proves otherwise. I am unmoved by recent 'he's moving better than a long time' comments. We heard similar junk last August before he took the field and lasted 5 innings. And to be clear, I don't blame Byron, if intense desire to play could cure chronic knees, he'd be out there, but things don't work that way. My best case scenario is that he proves to be healthy enough to play part-time in the field and hit off a stable foundation. If that turns out to be the case, I also wouldn't be shocked if the Twins start working on a migration to LF during the year. (We all remember Byron as the best CF in the game, but he's 30 in less than two weeks, and by spring it will have been a year-and-a-half of bad knees multiple surgeries keeping him off MLB OF grass.)

I don't see Gordon as a real CF option except occasional fill-ins. He's really competing with Larnach and others as a LF/IF flex option, and if he doesn't hit fairly quickly his future is in another uniform. Castro could be good enough (if not great), but his value as a strong defender all over is watered down by locking him to a spot. (Though sans veteran addition, I'd be counting on a Castro/Buxton combo to cover for a bit if Martin needs to fix some issues in AAA.)

 

[chpettit19]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Gordon is out of options, so if he's in the org on opening day I'm pretty sure Martin isn't taking his spot as they won't sacrifice the depth for nothing in return for Gordon. Gordon and Castro definitely have spots locked up over Martin if they're in the org come opening day. Unless Gordon is simply brutal in ST.

I've seen Martin play a number of times and I'm interested to see what his sprint speeds come in at. He steals a lot of bases, but, to me, it looks like he does it more off of good reads and general athleticism over pure speed. He's a good athlete, but I don't think he's as fast as Castro, and probably more of a Gordon type when it comes to wheels. But that's just eye test watching him play in St Paul and on some milb broadcasts. 

Martin was my favorite player in the draft his year, and I was stoked when we got him in the Berrios deal. I was hoping the power would come along a little more like the Twins were, but if he hits for the kind of power we were seeing at the end of 2023 it'll be enough to make him a heck of a player. I'm excited to see him in 2024, but, as of today, I don't expect we see him opening day. If he's hitting 9 hole in front of Julien by the all star break I think it'll be a very good sign. And I do expect him to be a 9 hole guy to start his career. I'll be pretty surprised if we see a bunch of games with Martin and Julien at the top of the lineup in 2024. More likely the 9-1 turn. And I think that'll be a great setup.

[mnfireman]

Gordon is out of options, but I would not consider it a loss if he is claimed if the team tries to get him through waivers. There are potentially better options, and baseball is a business, but sometimes the shiny new choice works out, sometimes not. 

[arby58]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Gordon is out of options, so if he's in the org on opening day I'm pretty sure Martin isn't taking his spot as they won't sacrifice the depth for nothing in return for Gordon. Gordon and Castro definitely have spots locked up over Martin if they're in the org come opening day. Unless Gordon is simply brutal in ST.

If he's 27 years old and can't make the 26 man roster, the fact he is out of options strikes me as not particularly relevant. I'd expect most 27 year old marginal players to be out of options.  If you lose something of little particular value 'for nothing' there isn't really a loss, in the material sense of the word.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Gordon is out of options, so if he's in the org on opening day I'm pretty sure Martin isn't taking his spot as they won't sacrifice the depth for nothing in return for Gordon. Gordon and Castro definitely have spots locked up over Martin if they're in the org come opening day. Unless Gordon is simply brutal in ST.

I've seen Martin play a number of times and I'm interested to see what his sprint speeds come in at. He steals a lot of bases, but, to me, it looks like he does it more off of good reads and general athleticism over pure speed. He's a good athlete, but I don't think he's as fast as Castro, and probably more of a Gordon type when it comes to wheels. But that's just eye test watching him play in St Paul and on some milb broadcasts. 

Martin was my favorite player in the draft his year, and I was stoked when we got him in the Berrios deal. I was hoping the power would come along a little more like the Twins were, but if he hits for the kind of power we were seeing at the end of 2023 it'll be enough to make him a heck of a player. I'm excited to see him in 2024, but, as of today, I don't expect we see him opening day. If he's hitting 9 hole in front of Julien by the all star break I think it'll be a very good sign. And I do expect him to be a 9 hole guy to start his career. I'll be pretty surprised if we see a bunch of games with Martin and Julien at the top of the lineup in 2024. More likely the 9-1 turn. And I think that'll be a great setup.

Gordon and Balazovic need to stick on the 26 person roster or they can be claimed.

I have put Austin Martin in the lineup batting 9th in a number of iterations for the Twins in 2024. Martin is the one rookie who I hope can make a big contribution next season.

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Gordon and Balazovic need to stick on the 26 person roster or they can be claimed.

I have put Austin Martin in the lineup batting 9th in a number of iterations for the Twins in 2024. Martin is the one rookie who I hope can make a big contribution next season.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Balazovic and Gordon make the team out of spring training, especially if either or both show something in the spring. Because of the payroll reduction, the Twins depth looks to be thinner and to give up on guys that might be able to help the team at the expense of unproven or recovering players is taking an unnecessary risk. 

That said, Austin Martin fits this club better than Nick Gordon IMHO and I don't think Balazovic is an answer in the bullpen. Perhaps they will be traded or maybe lost due to a DFA. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

15 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Balazovic and Gordon make the team out of spring training, especially if either or both show something in the spring. Because of the payroll reduction, the Twins depth looks to be thinner and to give up on guys that might be able to help the team at the expense of unproven or recovering players is taking an unnecessary risk. 

That said, Austin Martin fits this club better than Nick Gordon IMHO and I don't think Balazovic is an answer in the bullpen. Perhaps they will be traded or maybe lost due to a DFA. 

I have more hope for Balazovic than Gordon actually.  His experience as a reliever is still really minimal at this point, so he has the potential to get better as he pitchs out of the pen -- especially in low leverage, as that's a good spot for a developing pitcher (plus he's cheap).  I might be in the minority on this, but I've pretty much written off Gordon.  If I'm the Twins he becomes a throw-in on a trade, kind of like Rooker a couple of years ago in the Rogers/Paddack trade.  Yes, he was hurt last year, but he had absolutely nothing working prior to the injury either, and I think Austin Martin has much, much more upside.  I'm hoping Martin grabs CF and runs with it, as I'm assuming minimal contribution there from Buxton.