The Twins Daily Table Setter: December 7, 2023

Victor Caratini signs for 2 years $12M. That sets a floor for what Vazquez is worth, though I'd rather have Vazquez than Caratini.

Some good nuggets in your story. MAT will probably get a 2 yr $15M deal from someone but it wont be us.  Another good young pitcher would be awesome. Even if it took him 2 years to become a Pablo sidekick. I hope the Twins pick the right guy and they don’t overpay. 
 

I can't see the Red Sox being interested in Taylor.  They already have a young CF (Jarren Duran) who had a breakout season last year.  The other clubs, maybe.  Not Boston. 

I predict Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.  Soto in Yankee Stadium will be interesting.  Good trade for both teams.  

If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff.  He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years.  

Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV.  As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins.  Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami.  

Would you do this trade?  I would.  I'm selling high on Jeffers and going with the veteran Vasquez with Camargo.  I'm willing to give up Emmanuel Rodriguez to be able to bring in a top of rotation talent in Luzardo who finally also gives the Twins a LH starter.  Jenkins on the fast track is the only reason I trade Rodriguez.  We need this pitching.

I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in.  Kid has an electric arm.  Think Matt Canterino.  If he and Canterino can stay healthy (a big if, I'll concede) the Twins could have one end up in the bullpen and one in the rotation.  But even if both ended up in the bullpen, can you imagine a pen with Duran, Sanchez and Canterino???  

It's a big gamble to trade Jeffers and risk that Vasquez/Camargo flop.  It's also a big gamble to trade Rodriguez.  But the dividends Luzardo and Sanchez could bring to Twins pitching with Lewis, Julien, Lee, Jenkins, Kirilloff and maybe Miranda to build around offensively with Lopez, Luzardo, Varland, Ryan, Ober and Paddack is worth the risk in my opinion.  

Reds are spending money  ...

They over spent on pagan  ( way over plus gave him incentives in the contract ) ...

now they sign candelario for 15 million  per year for 3 years plus , candelario signed with the nationals  last year for 5 million and traded to cubs at deadline  ( was it an over pay ? ) ...

When will teams learn what mediocre players are worth ...

When will teams realize money can't buy you a championship  ...

Twins FO with their patience  does get mediocre players at a more reasonable rate , I'll grant them that ...

I'm not sure this is the year we trade with miami  , if we have to give up the talent that other post have mentioned I'd rather go to the northwest  and deal with the mariners for Gilbert if available ...

Miami does have pitching  and FO could fallback to them ...

Better get going before  the other teams get the pitching we desire  ..

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in.  Kid has an electric arm. 

Have you read/seen any reports from the last year? I always liked Sanchez, but I have seen three articles that suggested Sanchez may be done as a pitcher. The fastball was 80-86 in his one inning last summer. Sixto is out of options and will almost certainly be released at some point. It might be worth it to sign him to a minor league deal. In the video he looks much heavier than previously and he was always a big dude.

16 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

When will teams learn what mediocre players are worth ...

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff.  He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years.  

Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV.  As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins.  Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami.  

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Jesus Luzardo	SP	63.3
Sixto Sanchez	SP	0.0

Total Value:

63.30

Marlins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Ryan Jeffers	C	28.5
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4
Emmanuel Rodriguez	OF	19.7
Josh Winder	LRP	3.9

Total Value:

61.50

TWINSMARLINS

I think the sweet spot is the pitcher with two years of control. That third year is very expensive since it will come at a low arb cost.

Using BTV’s numbers Luzardo is expected to be worth 91.3 million in value over the next three years. He is expected to make 28 million in arbitration so his surplus is 63.3. A good deal of the surplus comes from that extra third year where he is projected to be awarded 5.9 million in arbitration. A year from now he will be expected 22.1 in salary left and have about 60.8 of his value left. His surplus value will have dropped nearly 25 million.

The cost of that extra one season is close to Jeffers. I like Luzardo but that third year costs too much. I wouldn’t trade Jeffers or even Rodriguez for one season of Luzardo but that is essentially what they would be doing getting that third year of control.

Buying Luzardo seems like we would have to out bid other teams so we pay a premium to boot. Not a great plan. Get another guy with a lower price and longer team control 

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

The two deals cited were pretty good examples of overypays, IMO. 

The Twins should definitely be pointing to Candelario's deal for a valuation comp when answering calls about Polanco and Kepler.  I mean he's about the same age as those guys and has delivered way less value overall.  In a vacuum, his deal certainly makes Kepler look like a 2024 QO candidate ATM.

@TopGunn#22 what kind of trade would you work up for Braxton Garret?

3 years $45 million for Candelario,  proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer,  especially if he has a decent year with the bat.   

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

3 years $45 million for Candelario,  proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer,  especially if he has a decent year with the bat.   

Kepler and Candelario are roughly equal in value. Candelario is reaching free agency 2 years earlier than Max and wouldn't have even received that deal if it cost a draft pick to acquire him. It proves Max Kepler was close to being worth a QO two seasons ago.

Max would be very likely to accept a qualifying offer.

I agree that this says Kepler and Polanco are each worth about $15M a season. They're getting paid $10M a season. That's not a lot of surplus value.

tony&rodney, regarding Sixto Sanchez...I've read he is throwing again but had not read about such a loss in velocity.  I guess they finally got him to throw a bit at the end of last season but have nothing about him throwing in winter ball at all.  he's had a consistent 97mph fastball that can touch 99-100.  But if he's throwing in the low to mid 80's that's like Sam McDowell losing his fastball after the 1970 season and never really getting it back.

Fatbat...I would probably work up a similar trade for Garrett as he and Luzardo are close in value.  Garrett's value is 8 to 10 points lower, so maybe instead of Emm-Rod the player you replace him with would be Festa.  As much as I am excited to see Emm-Rod in a Twins uniform, with Jenkins on the fast track I can see myself knuckling under and including him to get a young, controllable SP like Woo or Miller from Seattle.  

The problem with dealing Emm-Rod for either of them in my opinion is that I think the Mariners want immediate offensive contributors as they expect to contend NOW.  Not someone that may be a season to season and a half away.  And Seattle would be much more interested in Polanco for that immediate return.  Maybe a Polanco-Miranda-Garrett Jax gets you Miller or Woo?

36 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's an interesting argument. Candelario only got 75% of the QO as an AAV, and that was without QO to dent his value. He's a good little analog for Kepler, because both have been so inconsistent, but with clearly great best seasons. 

I do think Kepler COULD earn a QO with a good enough 2024, but right now, I'd bet the Twins are mentally approaching him as a non-QO candidate. Trade threshold, if they go that way, wouldn't be set at the estimated value of the QO, because they aren't expecting to offer him one. But I could be wrong.

One could argue on a 1 year deal he would be closer to $20 million as well.  

33 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

BTV is a disasterclass and I say we should all put zero stock in it. But this is a really perspicacious use of it. Yes. That third and fourth year of control have such premiums attached to them. Love the framing. Two years from FA seems to be the sweet spot for an acquisition. It certainly seems like the Twins think that way, too: Gray, Lopez, etc.

They traded Arraez and that third year of control in the Lopez deal. It might be the sweet spot for trading a player. Players have had enough time to drive up their trade value and they are now entering a phase where salaries escalate. The Twins bank the 10.3 WAR for little cost and then trade off that extra third year of control to get a lot more in return.

In Luzardo’s case the 63.3 for the years is a 71% increase over the projected 38.7 for two years.

@TopGunn#22 an Emm-rod Jenkins Wallner OF would be insane. 

The Marlins resigned Smeltzer to a minor league deal to help with their pitching depth.  Maybe they do plan to trade a starter.  I see one of Lee or Julien in a trade for a starter.  We keep Polanco for another year while Lee develops in AAA and makes his debut later in the season.  Maybe a deal of Julien, Larnarch and Festa for a Starting Pitcher who is good.  Or atleast it’s the start of a good trade package.

I thought MIA would deal. They want to keep Chisolm in CF so what they are looking for is a SS, a catcher that can hit. If we offer Jeffers & Lee, I think that 'd be enough to make MIA consider giving up Perez & a nice throw in. Myself it'd be hard to give up Lee because he'd be hard to replace but it might be worth it. 

My preference is Jeffers/ Rogers. Then MIA could get a Tim Anderson type to fill in at SS

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/153732

Rogers is a LHP SP which we can extend.

But I think the best idea is to ask Pablo for his advice, he'd have 1st hand  evaluation. Hopefully it had been done.

IMO we need to be quick because many teams need pitching that have excess SSs & catchers. After Yamamoto signs, the SPs who are up for trade will be gone soon.

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought MIA would deal. They want to keep Chisolm in CF so what they are looking for is a SS, a catcher & bats. If we offer Jeffers & Lee, I think that 'd be enough to make MIA consider giving up Perez & a nice throw in. Myself it'd be hard to give up Lee because he'd be hard to replace but it might be worth it. 

My preference is Jeffers/ Rogers. Then MIA could get a Tim Anderson type to fill in at SS

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/153732

Rogers is a LHP SP which we can extend.

But I think the best idea is to ask Pablo for his advice, he'd have 1st hand  evaluation. Hopefully it had been done.

IMO we need to be quick because many teams need pitching that have excess SSs & catchers.

 

Why not offer Farmer, Noah miller, Vasquez and Rosario. Clean up some of our 2nd tier prospects and a couple solid vets. 

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

Is Cincinnati a big market team  ???

I've never thought them to be anything more than the Twins ...

Mid market ...

7 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Is Cincinnati a big market team  ???

I've never thought them to be anything more than the Twins ...

Mid market ...

Cincinnati is one of the 5 smallest markets in major league baseball.

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Cincinnati is one of the 5 smallest markets in major league baseball.

So your point is the Twins should spend the big bucks too with our window of opportunity  ... 

This isn't that great of a free agency  , pitching  has a few quality arms but Twins Won't  spend on pitching  , trade hopefully is coming for a quality arm for the rotation   and we definitely need one if we want to be anything like the pitching was in 2023 ...

Would you have paid 8 million  for pagan , what did Pagan do ,  change agents ...