The Twins Daily Table Setter: December 7, 2023

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s Winter Meetings officially wrapped up on Wednesday, and there was plenty to discuss in Nashville. What’s next for the Twins, and what other news and notes came out of the Country Music Capital of the World?

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Teams packed up in Nashville and headed home yesterday, but the rumor mill continues to swirl about the Twins and other teams across the baseball landscape. The Winter Meetings allow teams to set the groundwork for free-agent signings and potential trades, which will unfold quickly over the next two weeks. Minnesota tends to be patient when making their offseason moves, and they're sticking to that strategy so far this winter. Here are some trending storylines that will impact the Twins’ plans.

Multiple Teams Interested in Michael A. Taylor
Taylor had a career year with the Twins at age 32. He hit a career-high 21 home runs and posted his highest OPS+ (94) since 2017. Taylor’s defense continues to be among baseball’s best, with 5 Defensive Runs Saved and 8 Outs Above Average. The Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier this week, opening a spot in the Boston outfield. Jon Morosi reported that the Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays, and Mets are rumored to be interested in Taylor, which is intriguing, since some of these clubs are big-market teams with money to spend. Taylor seemed likely to sign a one-year contract, but a team might have to offer a two-year pact to beat out other interested teams. Notably absent from the list of teams engaged, at least in that report, are the Twins.

Marlins Open to Trading Young Pitching
Last winter, the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez, in a deal that worked well for both clubs. Miami continues to have a plethora of young starting pitching, and Jon Heyman reported that the Marlins are listening to trade talk on pitchers Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. Do the Twins think they can help any of these pitchers take the next step, as they did with López last season?

Luzardo is under team control through 2026 and posted a 3.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 2023. Garrett isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, and can’t become a free agent until after 2028. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 3.63 ERA, with a 246-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 247 2/3 innings. Cabrera is on the same free-agent timeline as Garrett, but would likely come at a lower cost than the other two names. He struggled with control, including 6.0 BB/9 in just under 100 innings last season. Injuries derailed Rogers in 2023, but he should be ready for next spring.

Shohei Ohtani Decisions Looming
Many teams are waiting to make their key moves until Ohtani, arguably the biggest free agent in MLB history, picks his destination. Jon Morosi reported that Ohtani is expected to make his decision by the end of the weekend. Some teams still rumored to be courting Ohtani include the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs. Following his signing, teams can focus on other free agents and trade options, which should help add some heat to the Hot Stove. 

Juan Soto Trade to Yankees is Official 
Juan Soto was the second-biggest name available this winter, but is still one year away from free agency. Wednesday night, the Yankees finalized a deal to land the extraordinary left-handed slugger and on-base machine. Two of New York’s top young pitchers, Michael King and Drew Thorpe, headline the haul for San Diego, with three others along for the ride and center fielder Trent Grisham also joining the Bronx Bombers.

While You Were Sleeping...
There were a couple of late-night moves that you may have missed. 

E-Rod Heading West 
Some Twins fans may have thought that left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez should be a target this offseason. He opted out of the remaining three years and $49 million on his contract with the Detroit Tigers, signed two years ago. According to reports, Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80-million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks that includes a vesting option for a fifth season and some incentives that could push the total value of the deal to about $100 million.

Reds Sign Jeimer Candelario
Long-time Tigers infielder Jeimer Candelario signed a three-year, $45-million contract with the Cincinnati Reds late on Wednesday night. After parts of six seasons in Motown, Candelario signed a one-year deal with the Nationals last year. He hit .258, with 30 doubles and 16 home runs in 99 games for Washington before he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. He added nine doubles and six homers in 41 games on the North Side. Candelario will likely play both corner infield spots for the Reds. Spencer Steer, who had a tremendous rookie season in 2023, will find himself in left field most often. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will likely continue to get time at first base, but also do plenty of DHing.

Do you think Taylor will get a multi-year deal? Can the Twins and Marlins agree on another trade for a starting pitcher? What team will sign Ohtani? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Luzardo would be incredible here. I don't know that they would trade him, but he is who I would shoot for here.

[DJL44]

Victor Caratini signs for 2 years $12M. That sets a floor for what Vazquez is worth, though I'd rather have Vazquez than Caratini.

[Fatbat]

Some good nuggets in your story. MAT will probably get a 2 yr $15M deal from someone but it wont be us.  Another good young pitcher would be awesome. Even if it took him 2 years to become a Pablo sidekick. I hope the Twins pick the right guy and they don’t overpay. 
 

[TopGunn#22]

I can't see the Red Sox being interested in Taylor.  They already have a young CF (Jarren Duran) who had a breakout season last year.  The other clubs, maybe.  Not Boston. 

I predict Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.  Soto in Yankee Stadium will be interesting.  Good trade for both teams.  

If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff.  He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years.  

Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV.  As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins.  Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami.  

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Jesus Luzardo	SP	63.3
Sixto Sanchez	SP	0.0

Total Value:

63.30

Marlins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Ryan Jeffers	C	28.5
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4
Emmanuel Rodriguez	OF	19.7
Josh Winder	LRP	3.9

Total Value:

61.50

TWINSMARLINS

[Steve Lein]

I'd take any of those Miami pitchers to bring in, but is the asking price even more than what Pablo's was? For Luzardo and Garrett, I would have to think it is, and by a considerable margin.

I think you're talking Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and David Festa for Luzardo or Garrett. 

For Rogers or Cabrera it's probably Wallner and Festa. 

I'm skeptical the Twins make either of those type of deals happen, but I wouldn't be against that second tier.

[TopGunn#22]

Would you do this trade?  I would.  I'm selling high on Jeffers and going with the veteran Vasquez with Camargo.  I'm willing to give up Emmanuel Rodriguez to be able to bring in a top of rotation talent in Luzardo who finally also gives the Twins a LH starter.  Jenkins on the fast track is the only reason I trade Rodriguez.  We need this pitching.

I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in.  Kid has an electric arm.  Think Matt Canterino.  If he and Canterino can stay healthy (a big if, I'll concede) the Twins could have one end up in the bullpen and one in the rotation.  But even if both ended up in the bullpen, can you imagine a pen with Duran, Sanchez and Canterino???  

It's a big gamble to trade Jeffers and risk that Vasquez/Camargo flop.  It's also a big gamble to trade Rodriguez.  But the dividends Luzardo and Sanchez could bring to Twins pitching with Lewis, Julien, Lee, Jenkins, Kirilloff and maybe Miranda to build around offensively with Lopez, Luzardo, Varland, Ryan, Ober and Paddack is worth the risk in my opinion.  

[Blyleven2011]

Reds are spending money  ...

They over spent on pagan  ( way over plus gave him incentives in the contract ) ...

now they sign candelario for 15 million  per year for 3 years plus , candelario signed with the nationals  last year for 5 million and traded to cubs at deadline  ( was it an over pay ? ) ...

When will teams learn what mediocre players are worth ...

When will teams realize money can't buy you a championship  ...

Twins FO with their patience  does get mediocre players at a more reasonable rate , I'll grant them that ...

I'm not sure this is the year we trade with miami  , if we have to give up the talent that other post have mentioned I'd rather go to the northwest  and deal with the mariners for Gilbert if available ...

Miami does have pitching  and FO could fallback to them ...

Better get going before  the other teams get the pitching we desire  ..

 

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in.  Kid has an electric arm. 

Have you read/seen any reports from the last year? I always liked Sanchez, but I have seen three articles that suggested Sanchez may be done as a pitcher. The fastball was 80-86 in his one inning last summer. Sixto is out of options and will almost certainly be released at some point. It might be worth it to sign him to a minor league deal. In the video he looks much heavier than previously and he was always a big dude.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

When will teams learn what mediocre players are worth ...

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

[jorgenswest]

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff.  He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years.  

Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV.  As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins.  Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami.  

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Jesus Luzardo	SP	63.3
Sixto Sanchez	SP	0.0

Total Value:

63.30

Marlins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Ryan Jeffers	C	28.5
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4
Emmanuel Rodriguez	OF	19.7
Josh Winder	LRP	3.9

Total Value:

61.50

TWINSMARLINS

I think the sweet spot is the pitcher with two years of control. That third year is very expensive since it will come at a low arb cost.

Using BTV’s numbers Luzardo is expected to be worth 91.3 million in value over the next three years. He is expected to make 28 million in arbitration so his surplus is 63.3. A good deal of the surplus comes from that extra third year where he is projected to be awarded 5.9 million in arbitration. A year from now he will be expected 22.1 in salary left and have about 60.8 of his value left. His surplus value will have dropped nearly 25 million.

The cost of that extra one season is close to Jeffers. I like Luzardo but that third year costs too much. I wouldn’t trade Jeffers or even Rodriguez for one season of Luzardo but that is essentially what they would be doing getting that third year of control.

[Fatbat]

Buying Luzardo seems like we would have to out bid other teams so we pay a premium to boot. Not a great plan. Get another guy with a lower price and longer team control 

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I can't see the Red Sox being interested in Taylor.  They already have a young CF (Jarren Duran) who had a breakout season last year.  The other clubs, maybe.  Not Boston. 

I predict Ohtani signs with the Dodgers.  Soto in Yankee Stadium will be interesting.  Good trade for both teams.  

If the Marlins really are willing to trade Luzardo the price would be steep but it would be a tremendous opportunity for the Twins to add a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with electric stuff.  He and Pablo Lopez at the top of the Twins rotation with young hitters coming up and maturing would make the Twins contenders for years.  

Here is a trade I proposed on BBTV.  As I said, the price would be steep, but it's a classic "sell high" for both the Twins and the Marlins.  Jeffers is the key piece going to Miami.  

Twins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Jesus Luzardo	SP	63.3
Sixto Sanchez	SP	0.0

Total Value:

63.30

Marlins

NAME	POSITION	SURPLUS
Ryan Jeffers	C	28.5
Jorge Polanco	2B	9.4
Emmanuel Rodriguez	OF	19.7
Josh Winder	LRP	3.9

Total Value:

61.50

TWINSMARLINS

Two problems - don’t think they want Polanco’s salary - don’t think we believe Jeffers should be moved?

They need to have depth in CF & 2B at a low cost. They want low budget, controllable pieces. Nick Gordon and E. Rodriguez fit those needs………They probably want some potential arm(s) back to work with so Winder and Festa should work. They need catching depth and a leader on the bench with young guys, so moving Vazquez there & eating $3M per year of his salary would be reasonable. That’s 3-5 guys on their roster in ‘24 or ‘25. Do Gordon & Vazquez & Festa combined get near to “37.0” on the value scale? With Soler probably signing elsewhere, is Miranda a fit for them - at least a guy to look at in their AAA?

Luzardo would be the target…..no other throw in is needed.

After brief reflection, if we need to up the deal to get it to happen, we need to consider anyone other than Lee & Jenkins from our minor league system. Can we trade our draft pick at #33 or #34, received for Gray?

[Jocko87]

41 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Would you do this trade?  I would.  I'm selling high on Jeffers and going with the veteran Vasquez with Camargo.  I'm willing to give up Emmanuel Rodriguez to be able to bring in a top of rotation talent in Luzardo who finally also gives the Twins a LH starter.  Jenkins on the fast track is the only reason I trade Rodriguez.  We need this pitching.

I insist on Sixto Sanchez as a thrown in.  Kid has an electric arm.  Think Matt Canterino.  If he and Canterino can stay healthy (a big if, I'll concede) the Twins could have one end up in the bullpen and one in the rotation.  But even if both ended up in the bullpen, can you imagine a pen with Duran, Sanchez and Canterino???  

It's a big gamble to trade Jeffers and risk that Vasquez/Camargo flop.  It's also a big gamble to trade Rodriguez.  But the dividends Luzardo and Sanchez could bring to Twins pitching with Lewis, Julien, Lee, Jenkins, Kirilloff and maybe Miranda to build around offensively with Lopez, Luzardo, Varland, Ryan, Ober and Paddack is worth the risk in my opinion.  

I think I would. Losing Erod hurts a bit but LH starting pitching > LH corner OF bat. 

Jeffers is the interesting part.  Was last year a career year or the start of something bigger? It would help solve the Vazquez situation too.  If Camargo is close having Vazquez as a mentor would make me more comfortable. Take whatever Vazquez can do with the bat and pitch their butts off.  Risky but it might work.  I can see the path but it really depends how they evaluate Jeffers year.  
 

[MMMordabito]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

The two deals cited were pretty good examples of overypays, IMO. 

The Twins should definitely be pointing to Candelario's deal for a valuation comp when answering calls about Polanco and Kepler.  I mean he's about the same age as those guys and has delivered way less value overall.  In a vacuum, his deal certainly makes Kepler look like a 2024 QO candidate ATM.

 

 

 

[Fatbat]

@TopGunn#22 what kind of trade would you work up for Braxton Garret?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 years $45 million for Candelario,  proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer,  especially if he has a decent year with the bat.   

[Matthew Trueblood]

43 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think the sweet spot is the pitcher with two years of control. That third year is very expensive since it will come at a low arb cost.

Using BTV’s numbers Luzardo is expected to be worth 91.3 million in value over the next three years. He is expected to make 28 million in arbitration so his surplus is 63.3. A good deal of the surplus comes from that extra third year where he is projected to be awarded 5.9 million in arbitration. A year from now he will be expected 22.1 in salary left and have about 60.8 of his value left. His surplus value will have dropped nearly 25 million.

The cost of that extra one season is close to Jeffers. I like Luzardo but that third year costs too much. I wouldn’t trade Jeffers or even Rodriguez for one season of Luzardo but that is essentially what they would be doing getting that third year of control.

BTV is a disasterclass and I say we should all put zero stock in it. But this is a really perspicacious use of it. Yes. That third and fourth year of control have such premiums attached to them. Love the framing. Two years from FA seems to be the sweet spot for an acquisition. It certainly seems like the Twins think that way, too: Gray, Lopez, etc.

[Matthew Trueblood]

9 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

3 years $45 million for Candelario,  proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer,  especially if he has a decent year with the bat.   

That's an interesting argument. Candelario only got 75% of the QO as an AAV, and that was without QO to dent his value. He's a good little analog for Kepler, because both have been so inconsistent, but with clearly great best seasons. 

I do think Kepler COULD earn a QO with a good enough 2024, but right now, I'd bet the Twins are mentally approaching him as a non-QO candidate. Trade threshold, if they go that way, wouldn't be set at the estimated value of the QO, because they aren't expecting to offer him one. But I could be wrong.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

3 years $45 million for Candelario,  proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer,  especially if he has a decent year with the bat.   

Kepler and Candelario are roughly equal in value. Candelario is reaching free agency 2 years earlier than Max and wouldn't have even received that deal if it cost a draft pick to acquire him. It proves Max Kepler was close to being worth a QO two seasons ago.

Max would be very likely to accept a qualifying offer.

I agree that this says Kepler and Polanco are each worth about $15M a season. They're getting paid $10M a season. That's not a lot of surplus value.

[TopGunn#22]

tony&rodney, regarding Sixto Sanchez...I've read he is throwing again but had not read about such a loss in velocity.  I guess they finally got him to throw a bit at the end of last season but have nothing about him throwing in winter ball at all.  he's had a consistent 97mph fastball that can touch 99-100.  But if he's throwing in the low to mid 80's that's like Sam McDowell losing his fastball after the 1970 season and never really getting it back.

Fatbat...I would probably work up a similar trade for Garrett as he and Luzardo are close in value.  Garrett's value is 8 to 10 points lower, so maybe instead of Emm-Rod the player you replace him with would be Festa.  As much as I am excited to see Emm-Rod in a Twins uniform, with Jenkins on the fast track I can see myself knuckling under and including him to get a young, controllable SP like Woo or Miller from Seattle.  

The problem with dealing Emm-Rod for either of them in my opinion is that I think the Mariners want immediate offensive contributors as they expect to contend NOW.  Not someone that may be a season to season and a half away.  And Seattle would be much more interested in Polanco for that immediate return.  Maybe a Polanco-Miranda-Garrett Jax gets you Miller or Woo?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

36 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

That's an interesting argument. Candelario only got 75% of the QO as an AAV, and that was without QO to dent his value. He's a good little analog for Kepler, because both have been so inconsistent, but with clearly great best seasons. 

I do think Kepler COULD earn a QO with a good enough 2024, but right now, I'd bet the Twins are mentally approaching him as a non-QO candidate. Trade threshold, if they go that way, wouldn't be set at the estimated value of the QO, because they aren't expecting to offer him one. But I could be wrong.

One could argue on a 1 year deal he would be closer to $20 million as well.  

[jorgenswest]

33 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

BTV is a disasterclass and I say we should all put zero stock in it. But this is a really perspicacious use of it. Yes. That third and fourth year of control have such premiums attached to them. Love the framing. Two years from FA seems to be the sweet spot for an acquisition. It certainly seems like the Twins think that way, too: Gray, Lopez, etc.

They traded Arraez and that third year of control in the Lopez deal. It might be the sweet spot for trading a player. Players have had enough time to drive up their trade value and they are now entering a phase where salaries escalate. The Twins bank the 10.3 WAR for little cost and then trade off that extra third year of control to get a lot more in return.

In Luzardo’s case the 63.3 for the years is a 71% increase over the projected 38.7 for two years.

[Fatbat]

@TopGunn#22 an Emm-rod Jenkins Wallner OF would be insane. 

[Brandon]

The Marlins resigned Smeltzer to a minor league deal to help with their pitching depth.  Maybe they do plan to trade a starter.  I see one of Lee or Julien in a trade for a starter.  We keep Polanco for another year while Lee develops in AAA and makes his debut later in the season.  Maybe a deal of Julien, Larnarch and Festa for a Starting Pitcher who is good.  Or atleast it’s the start of a good trade package.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

The two deals cited were pretty good examples of overypays, IMO. 

The Twins should definitely be pointing to Candelario's deal for a valuation comp when answering calls about Polanco and Kepler.  I mean he's about the same age as those guys and has delivered way less value overall.  In a vacuum, his deal certainly makes Kepler look like a 2024 QO candidate ATM.

 

 

 

If every team is doing it....that is the going rate. so, not an over pay.

[Doctor Gast]

I thought MIA would deal. They want to keep Chisolm in CF so what they are looking for is a SS, a catcher that can hit. If we offer Jeffers & Lee, I think that 'd be enough to make MIA consider giving up Perez & a nice throw in. Myself it'd be hard to give up Lee because he'd be hard to replace but it might be worth it. 

My preference is Jeffers/ Rogers. Then MIA could get a Tim Anderson type to fill in at SS

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/153732

Rogers is a LHP SP which we can extend.

But I think the best idea is to ask Pablo for his advice, he'd have 1st hand  evaluation. Hopefully it had been done.

IMO we need to be quick because many teams need pitching that have excess SSs & catchers. After Yamamoto signs, the SPs who are up for trade will be gone soon.

 

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I thought MIA would deal. They want to keep Chisolm in CF so what they are looking for is a SS, a catcher & bats. If we offer Jeffers & Lee, I think that 'd be enough to make MIA consider giving up Perez & a nice throw in. Myself it'd be hard to give up Lee because he'd be hard to replace but it might be worth it. 

My preference is Jeffers/ Rogers. Then MIA could get a Tim Anderson type to fill in at SS

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/153732

Rogers is a LHP SP which we can extend.

But I think the best idea is to ask Pablo for his advice, he'd have 1st hand  evaluation. Hopefully it had been done.

IMO we need to be quick because many teams need pitching that have excess SSs & catchers.

 

Why not offer Farmer, Noah miller, Vasquez and Rosario. Clean up some of our 2nd tier prospects and a couple solid vets. 

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, every other team is overpaying the mediocre players. The Twins are right to not spend money like the big market Cincinnati Reds. Just keep telling yourself this.

Is Cincinnati a big market team  ???

I've never thought them to be anything more than the Twins ...

Mid market ...

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Is Cincinnati a big market team  ???

I've never thought them to be anything more than the Twins ...

Mid market ...

Cincinnati is one of the 5 smallest markets in major league baseball.