Goodbye, Emilio Pagán: Ex-Twins Reliever Signs with Reds in Free Agency

[Theodore Tollefson]

A key member of the Twins' relief corps for the last two seasons officially moved on Wednesday. 

Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported Wednesday that free-agent reliever and (now-)former Twin Emilio Pagan had agreed to a two-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds. Pagán, 32, spent the last two seasons with the Twins and became a polarizing member of the bullpen among fans. 

Minnesota landed Pagán the day before Opening Day 2022, in a trade with San Diego that sent Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker back to the Padres for him and starter Chris Paddack. During the first month of the 2022 season, both Pagán and Paddack pitched well for the Twins. Then, Paddack went down with an injury that required him to get his second Tommy John surgery. And Pagán... well, as many Twins fans remember, he pitched himself out of the unofficial closer role, as he blew four crucial games against the Cleveland Guardians in late June 2022. 

Those four appearances ballooned his ERA, which stood at 2.45 on the season when he faced them on June 21. After the fourth appearance, it was 5.26. Pagán allowed nine earned runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Guardians that month, and many argued that it was the deciding factor keeping the Twins behind the Guardians in the AL Central race. 

Pagán remained mediocre for the remainder of 2022, and things were looking just as bad for him for the first seven weeks of the 2023 season. He struggled through his first 16 relief appearances and appeared all but cooked on May 17, when he allowed a game-losing grand slam to Dodgers rookie James Outman. 

But then, something surprising happened: He returned to form and dominated for the remaining 50 games in which he appeared for the Twins. He brought his ERA down from 5.60 after that home run to end the season at 2.99 and help the Twins reach the postseason for the first time in three years. 

Pagán’s rejuvenation from mid-May through the end of the 2023 season has earned him this pact with the Reds. They're buying into him in full, too, with a player-friendly structure and substantial guaranteed money,

Emilio Pagán deal with Reds, pending physical, source tells @TheAthletic: Two years, $16M with performance bonuses. Player option after year one. First with agreement: @Feinsand @JonHeyman

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 29, 2023

But for some Twins fans, the implosion of 2022 will be how they always remember him. Like Matt Capps before him, Pagán is one of those relievers who was not truly awful in his Twins tenure. However, the bad moments overshadowed the good, and will forever keep him among the ranks of polarizing relievers in Twins history.

Do you think the Twins even considered a reunion with Pagán? How far should they go in reinforcing the bullpen this winter? Let's discuss.

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[4twinsJA]

Good luck to Pagan, one of TD member's favorite scapegoats. 2 yr., 16M contract, well beyond what Twins would offer a low to mid leverage reliever.

[SotaSports in NM]

If $16mm over two years is what it takes for Emilio I can't imagine that the Twins ever considered an offer. Yes, he was certainly improved last year, but that just shows the volatility of non-elite relievers and proves the point that a mid-level reliever like him isn't worth that investment. Unless ownership is increasing payroll because a new TV happens to fall in their lap lol...

[Jocko87]

Holy smokes money. Good for him. I would assume they will be putting him in higher leverage spots, good luck to them.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Given what he got from the Reds, I think

every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins

[MMMordabito]

A new generation of Great American Bombs about to be on display.  

[Dman]

He pitched well last year.  His first year with the Twins blowing so many saves and giving up HR's really made it hard to shake the narrative. I for one was not much of a believer in him starting the 2023 season.  The Twins pushed him back to lower leverage and after a tough angsty start he really turned things around.

I will say I was surprised he was able to get that much money given his history of giving up the long ball but maybe the Twins helped him get to a place where that is less likely now?  I don't know what the offers were but I still wish the Twins would have traded him instead of using him last year.

After all he went through in Minnesota I am happy he landed a great deal.

[jmlease1]

Congrats to Pagan for getting a substantial deal, especially one that sounds very player friendly. (I have a feeling he'll be exercising that player option, but you never know) the problem with a reliever like Pagan is they're only worth that kind of money about 1 year out of 2 (or sometimes 3) and it's why I've generally agreed with the Twins FO's decision to not make significant investments in their relief corps.

Pagan was quite good this year for the Twins, even if it was frequently in lower-leverage situations...but he was bad the previous two seasons. Maybe the Reds will get Good Emilio next year again, but he's never had two good seasons in a row in his 7 year career. He's really only had 3 good seasons as a pro. maybe he figured something out in his time with the Twins...or maybe he's just one of those guys with good stuff that can't string it together consistently.

Too much money for a fungible reliever. Pagan's greatest attribute has been his health (nice to have a guy with a rubber arm who never goes on the IL) but tough to bet on him to be worth $16M over 2 years when you look at his history, especially a 7 season cumulative WPA of 0.9

[Whitey333]

If 2 years and 16 million is what the market is paying for a meh reliever, the Twins are out of it.  The Twins like usual are looking for bullpen help that comes cheap.  That means cheap.  Their refusal to consider 25 mil a year for Gray, or 12 mil a year for Maeda, and now 8 mill for a reliever shows where we are headed this year.  Spending 50 mil a year on Correa and Buxton was sure smart.  I said way back when the Twins may spend some big bucks over the years for individual stars but are unable or unwilling to provide a supporting cast.  Typical Twins

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm more than happy with what he gave the team last year.

Yet, his incredible and still unexplained ability to torpedo his own team has me already looking at the Reds roster to see who'll be available when they're sellers at the trade deadline next summer.

[Brandon]

I think Pagan would be an option for the Twins for at most 5 million per season more likely 4.  But good for him to get the score.  He has a longer track record of giving up HRs than last year’s stingy mark.  Odds are he regresses some.  If he figured something out and can keep it up…..Nah…..

[tony&rodney]

Pagan gets 2/$16M plus incentives and a player option in case he becomes a top reliever and would get even a better deal after 2024? That is wonderful for Emilio.

[Nine of twelve]

Congratulations to Mr. Pagan. I think for the Twins this was $16M wisely not spent. I would say that Great American Smallpark is probably not the best place for him, so good luck with that in Cincy.

[LastOnePicked]

WHAT?! WE NEEDED HIM!!!!

... are words I never thought I'd write on TD. 

Kidding aside, he should be proud of his resilience, and I'm happy for him. Reds opponents might be even happier come July. Twins will be just fine without him, I think.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins

Every free agent is too rich for 29 teams, because Highest Bidder.

[mikelink45]

Happy to see him gone.  Yes he was better last year, but we used him in lower leverage situations.  I still would not trust him. 

Of course the big question is who do we get to replace him?

[wabene]

Emilio sure seems like a cool guy and man it would take guts to go through his super tough beats, but still keep showing up. Then he gets a stretch where his velo goes up along with his spirits and he rides the wave to a huge payday. Good for him.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Every free agent is too rich for 29 teams, because Highest Bidder.

No, many free agents would fit just fine in the budget for most teams but there's no room on the roster.

The Twins will be shopping the after-Christmas clearance hoping to find relievers for 75% off. They bought their CF and SS in the scratch-and-dent aisle.

[stringer bell]

All in all, Pagán might have been a net positive in his two years with the Twins. He takes the ball--it appears that during his entire career he hasn't had a significant injury and missed time. He was well-liked by his teammates and he was effective in 2023. That gets you $16M on the free-agent market I guess. Congratulations to him.

Cincinnati and St. Louis are coming to Target Field in 2024 I believe, so we'll be able to see a bunch of former Twins when they visit. 

[FilthyMogwai]

Ok. Cool. I appreciated the improvement last season, but don't think I could ever truly trust him. 

[mnfireman]

I don't think his new home park is going to be very friendly to him, but congrats to him on being able to cash in after last season. 

[roger]

Liked what he did last year and was hoping he would return.  But $16M +, whoa nellie!

[KirbyDome89]

24 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

All in all, Pagán might have been a net positive in his two years with the Twins

Eh, he has a slightly less than 0 WPA over those two years. 2022 was an absolute disaster, and despite last season not coming to close to that level of awful, the team still had to bury him near the bottom of the pen for a large portion of the season and essentially spoon feed him low leverage innings because he struggled with runners, inherited or allowed, and high leverage. Idk if I'd say he was a net positive during his Twins tenure. 

[rv78]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Spending 50 mil a year on Correa and Buxton was sure smart. 

After taking into consideration the production they got in 2023 from these 2 guys, I wouldn't call it smart.

[LewFordLives]

Pagan 's agent deserves a raise. Holy crap.

[wavedog]

Great deal for Pagan!   No way we the Twins going to pay that and I don't blame them.  Too bad we don't get compensatory picks for all Free Agents leaving like in the NFL - just the qualifying offer ones - because we are losing them fast this year and for big deals.   

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Every free agent is too rich for 29 teams, because Highest Bidder.

To make this a bit more accurate, it's the highest bidder among those that the player wishes to consider.

[ashbury]

15 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

To make this a bit more accurate, it's the highest bidder among those that the player wishes to consider.

I suppose it happens once or twice an off-season.

[IaBeanCounter]

Congratulations to Pagan.  I don't think the fans or Rocko trusted him.  Every failed appearance would be magnified by his 2022 performance.  

 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins

True. And honestly I don’t blame Falvey for that belief. FA pitching is stupid expensive.