Goodbye, Emilio Pagán: Ex-Twins Reliever Signs with Reds in Free Agency

7 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Given what he got from the Reds, I think

every free agent in baseball is too rich for the Twins

A new generation of Great American Bombs about to be on display.  

Congrats to Pagan for getting a substantial deal, especially one that sounds very player friendly. (I have a feeling he'll be exercising that player option, but you never know) the problem with a reliever like Pagan is they're only worth that kind of money about 1 year out of 2 (or sometimes 3) and it's why I've generally agreed with the Twins FO's decision to not make significant investments in their relief corps.

Pagan was quite good this year for the Twins, even if it was frequently in lower-leverage situations...but he was bad the previous two seasons. Maybe the Reds will get Good Emilio next year again, but he's never had two good seasons in a row in his 7 year career. He's really only had 3 good seasons as a pro. maybe he figured something out in his time with the Twins...or maybe he's just one of those guys with good stuff that can't string it together consistently.

Too much money for a fungible reliever. Pagan's greatest attribute has been his health (nice to have a guy with a rubber arm who never goes on the IL) but tough to bet on him to be worth $16M over 2 years when you look at his history, especially a 7 season cumulative WPA of 0.9

If 2 years and 16 million is what the market is paying for a meh reliever, the Twins are out of it.  The Twins like usual are looking for bullpen help that comes cheap.  That means cheap.  Their refusal to consider 25 mil a year for Gray, or 12 mil a year for Maeda, and now 8 mill for a reliever shows where we are headed this year.  Spending 50 mil a year on Correa and Buxton was sure smart.  I said way back when the Twins may spend some big bucks over the years for individual stars but are unable or unwilling to provide a supporting cast.  Typical Twins

I think Pagan would be an option for the Twins for at most 5 million per season more likely 4.  But good for him to get the score.  He has a longer track record of giving up HRs than last year’s stingy mark.  Odds are he regresses some.  If he figured something out and can keep it up…..Nah…..

Pagan gets 2/$16M plus incentives and a player option in case he becomes a top reliever and would get even a better deal after 2024? That is wonderful for Emilio.

Congratulations to Mr. Pagan. I think for the Twins this was $16M wisely not spent. I would say that Great American Smallpark is probably not the best place for him, so good luck with that in Cincy.

Emilio sure seems like a cool guy and man it would take guts to go through his super tough beats, but still keep showing up. Then he gets a stretch where his velo goes up along with his spirits and he rides the wave to a huge payday. Good for him.

20 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Every free agent is too rich for 29 teams, because Highest Bidder.

No, many free agents would fit just fine in the budget for most teams but there's no room on the roster.

The Twins will be shopping the after-Christmas clearance hoping to find relievers for 75% off. They bought their CF and SS in the scratch-and-dent aisle.

Ok. Cool. I appreciated the improvement last season, but don't think I could ever truly trust him. 

I don't think his new home park is going to be very friendly to him, but congrats to him on being able to cash in after last season. 

Liked what he did last year and was hoping he would return.  But $16M +, whoa nellie!

24 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

All in all, Pagán might have been a net positive in his two years with the Twins

Eh, he has a slightly less than 0 WPA over those two years. 2022 was an absolute disaster, and despite last season not coming to close to that level of awful, the team still had to bury him near the bottom of the pen for a large portion of the season and essentially spoon feed him low leverage innings because he struggled with runners, inherited or allowed, and high leverage. Idk if I'd say he was a net positive during his Twins tenure. 

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Spending 50 mil a year on Correa and Buxton was sure smart. 

After taking into consideration the production they got in 2023 from these 2 guys, I wouldn't call it smart.

Great deal for Pagan!   No way we the Twins going to pay that and I don't blame them.  Too bad we don't get compensatory picks for all Free Agents leaving like in the NFL - just the qualifying offer ones - because we are losing them fast this year and for big deals.   

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Every free agent is too rich for 29 teams, because Highest Bidder.

To make this a bit more accurate, it's the highest bidder among those that the player wishes to consider.

Congratulations to Pagan.  I don't think the fans or Rocko trusted him.  Every failed appearance would be magnified by his 2022 performance.  

Very smart for mid tier players to sign as soon as possible and before all big name free agents sign and take all the money.