The Minnesota Twins Are Poised to Reign Over the AL Central

[Nick Nelson]

A coalescing young core, a pitching staff with staying power, and a star-studded farm system – all in a complete mess of a division. The Twins are set to embark on another AL Central dynasty.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Watching events unfold on Monday and Tuesday night at Progressive Field was no doubt a painful experience for Guardians fans. The Twins obliterated Cleveland by a combined score of 28-9, sealing up the division in uncontested fashion as the hapless home team endured one of the most embarrassing high-stakes beatdowns I've ever seen.

But that's only the start of it.

On Tuesday night, the Twins effectively sewed up their third division title in five years. Based on the landscape of the American League Central, there are likely going to be more on the way.

For Guards fans, getting shoved all over their home yard in the biggest series of the year was bad enough. But worse yet, these blowouts were being driven by emerging young stars, set to power the Twins offense for years to come. 

Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner have been leading the charge for a revitalized Minnesota offense, which obviously bodes very well for the future.

On the same day, Brooks Lee launched a grand slam at Class-AAA St. Paul, while Walker Jenkins tripled and walked twice at Class-A Ft. Myers, improving his OPS to 1.192. Those two currently rank 18th and 16th on MLB.com's list of global top prospects, and it'd no surprise to see one or both reach the top 10 next spring. 

Going through a pair of losing seasons (2021-2022) sucks, but for the Twins, it yielded two of the most heralded young talents in the game.

On the other side of the clobbering in Cleveland, a much bleaker outlook is taking shape. Legendary manager Terry Francona has made clear he is retiring at year's end. A major turnover is about to take hold, and based on the front office's 'sell' moves at the deadline – dealing two quality vets who were under control for 2024 – they don't seem inclined to make a push next year.

 

Cleveland will surely continue to pump out solid young arms, but as we've seen this year, that's not enough on its own. Their system lacks the star power of the Twins, and their present club can't remotely contend with Minnesota's young talent nucleus. 

Despite their major flaws and question marks, the Guardians still seem like the most credible short-term threat in the division. Detroit's supposed emergence from the darkness was derailed this year as they fell flat again, heading toward a seventh straight sub-.500 finish. They have some promising young players but in reality it's shown no signs of coming together. (Aside from when they're playing the Twins, that is.)

The White Sox just zapped their front office as they crawl toward the end of a disaster campaign that currently has them 30 games under .500. The contention window they built toward by trading their stars and enduring seven years of cellar-dwelling resulted in one division title and zero postseason advancements; now they're back to the drawing board.

In classic Sox fashion, Chicago conducted no meaningful outside search for fresh outside leadership and hired Chris Getz internally. A culture shakeup!

 

We don't even really need to talk about the Kansas City Royals. I'm truly glad they got that title in 2015 because their fans deserve it, based on the endless purgatory they've endured before and since. This sad rudderless franchise, trudging through another 100-loss season, has no real hope of a turnaround in the remotely near future.

Realistically, is there anything that can happen during the coming offseason that would give any of these teams – Guardians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals – even a .500 projection for the 2024 season? They're bad! These franchises aren't rebuilding, they're smoldering.

Then you have the Twins. They're gonna run away with the division this year despite getting very little from the centerpiece players they just signed to long-term contracts. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are down but they are not out – MVP-caliber talents who haven't yet turned 30. They'll be surrounded by a core of young talent that includes Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Lee, Ryan Jeffers and Alex Kirilloff. Guys like Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach should not be counted out. The farm is rock-solid.

And for the first time in forever, the Twins actually have some stable continuity on the pitching side. Pablo López is locked down for years to come, as a durable 27-year-old All-Star starter with elite swing-and-miss stuff. He's accompanied by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober as controllable and proven mid-rotation starters, as well as a returning Chris Paddack who will be 28 and full-go next year. That's only the starting point!

In the bullpen, there's work to be done long-term but Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax form a rock-solid base. 

When the Twins hired him seven years ago, Derek Falvey spoke of building a model for sustainable contention – a concept that felt foreign to a franchise six years removed from its last playoff appearance, and reeling from a 103-loss Total System Failure. 

Today we can safely say we've seen Falvey's vision take hold. Assuming they finish the job this month, 2023 will mark Minnesota's fourth postseason berth in seven years under Falvey and Thad Levine. It's easy to feel confident there are more on the way, given all we've discussed. 

Yes, that owes in part to the utterly dismal state of the American League Central. But who cares? All that matters is taking advantage of the situation you're in, and the Twins are very well poised to do just that.

The longest postseason drought in pro sports lies in the crosshairs. The Minnesota Twins are likely about the to get a bunch of shots at conquering their demon. The first is suddenly less than a month away.

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[Wedman13]

You are a great writer, this is a very fair article and it's nice to see some positivity after a while.  Enjoy the ride!

[Nashvilletwin]

Nick,

Super article and you are spot on: if the FO doesn’t overthink things, we should be in for a solid open window stretch for several years. For example, not dealing our young talent at this year’s deadline is a good example of just staying in the lane that is right before our eyes.

The FO has done well drafting - ranging from insightful later round picks to not goofing off with their good luck in the first round the past two years (Lee falling to them and the lottery luck to get Jenkins - again, not overthinking those two picks).

The three big keys for ‘24 are: 1) make sure the young players continue to get better; 2) build the pen; and 3) add one more mid to upper level type starter (like a Gray).  By focusing on the young core, we should have the cash to address #2 and #3.  #1 causes the most concern - if we are successful with that, the next several years could be ridiculously fun; if not, it will truly be a waste of a special, once in a decade, opportunity.

Now, let’s step on the Guardians’ throats tomorrow and get ready to go win some playoff games! 

[JD-TWINS]

Like the previous comments, I too dislike the typical negativity about the team - individuals - the FO. Great to hear up beat point of view.

While I agree with most of what you say about the Twins competition in the Central, the Guardians are certainly not that distant from the Twins going forward. Their Pen is easily on par or better than the Twins as of today…….I do like our upside with a little bit of improved health……….. Their rotation, once Bieber & McKenzie return is on par with ours as well! So, if pitching is relatively level, it doesn’t take big adds to the Naylor Bros. - Rameriz - Kwan to be competitive. They let Civale go & they traded Josh Bell …….nothing stopping them from getting an offensive OF in free agency and they’d have 5-6 good major league weapons in their line-up.

I do agree, Lewis - Kirilloff - Lee, along with Julien & Wallner seem special to us/me, but I know nothing about their farm guys.

If they touted system depth backed by Larnach & particularly Miranda, I would chuckle at their optimism! Fandom goes only so far before reality has to take hold.

I like our chances in first 2 rounds this year - no guarantees but a real chance!

Going forward, if we can have reasonable health, we look strong and the organization seems to spend enough to help supplement the farm system………very encouraging stuff for next 5 plus years!!

[GNess]

Really nice article - speaks to the strong reasons for optimism for the present and next 5+ years if things progress as is suggested.

[JoshDungan1]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They let Civale go & they traded Josh Bell …….nothing stopping them from getting an offensive OF in free agency and they’d have 5-6 good major league weapons in their line-up.

You mean beyond their franchise disinterest in spending money in free agency? They also need a major upgrade on Myles Straw (and not just because of what happened tonight) in center, dude's never broken a .600 OPS or had an OPS+ above 70 in the two seasons now he's been their primary center fielder. Not a chance in hell they splurge on Cody Bellinger (especially since there's probably a bidding war for him after this rebound season), and there's really not that many other premier center fielders they can go out and get to upgrade.

 

Also if we're being real, outside of Bellinger, next year's outfield free agent class has more speed to it than power or hitting for average. Not that that's necessarily a bad thing, but the Guardians could definitely use a hitter with that extra level of pop to his bat, and I don't think that kind of guy is rolling through the door.

 

Let's be real, they're probably closer to trading away their one remaining good hitter in Ramirez and fully sinking into the suck fest than actually building a consistent lineup. The downside of having an owner that doesn't give a s**t.

[Brett]

The Twins do certainly seem to have a lot of young talent on the major league roster and across the river. If most of them can stay healthy over the next few years, then I agree with your premise.

[William K Johnson]

Detroit is the team to keep an eye on.   I really like some of their young players, both pitchers and everyday players.    Carpenter, Wierling, Greene on the offensive side, and with a young core of good arms with a few more getting healthy, they are the team that will challenge the Twins going forward.

[LastOnePicked]

I know we're all feeling good. I'm feeling good, too. BUT, it might be a little early to start hanging '24, '25 and '26 AL Central pennants on the ramparts of Target Field. Let' just get this one locked down first. Baseball is a funny, fickle game sometimes. For all we know, KC may break out again one of these years,

I want to see that pipeline annually produce global top-100 pitching prospects before I get too comfortable predicting any sort of dynasty.

[mikelink45]

Nice optimism and justified by the way our team is playing.   I really give a lot of credit to Lewis - sometimes it is more than a bat - he seems to have the energy and personality to do what we expected Correa to do.  Nice to have a real team leader.  

Everything you said is accurate, what you didn't say is that we continue to let players like Gallo and Luplow take ABs that should go to younger players with more potential. 

[Dave Borton]

Quote

Realistically, is there anything that can happen during the coming offseason that would give any of these teams – Guardians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals – even a .500 projection for the 2024 season? They're bad! These franchises aren't rebuilding, they're smoldering.

Quote

The downside of having an owner that doesn't give a s**t.

Curious. This winter, will the owners privately address the dismal state of AL Central? How might they go about that?

For a professional sport to have a perennially, dismally weak division harms the sport and business (attendance when AL Central opponent visits). AL Central is a laughing stock. It's about time to address that but don't know if or how other owners might take action.

DIVISION	RECORD OUTSIDE DIVISION
AL East	231-164 (.585)
NL East	217-198 (.523)
NL West	209-204 (.506)
AL West	201-204 (.496)
NL Central	195-207 (.485)
AL Central	157-233 (.402)

Your thoughts? db

[Peter]

Who cares about division being bad? Not twins fault. With core players like C4 buxton Wallner along with Lewis and draft picks last 2 years with lee and Jenkins twins are set for years!!!! Not if but when another World Series championship happens.

[Hrbeks Divot]

I’m all for optimism and enjoy your writing, Nick. I’m just looking at this one day at a time right now. Win the division, win A playoff game and then keep winning playoff games. Then we can worry about the off-season and the next three seasons.

Maybe it’s the MN sports fan in me that won’t let me look that far into the future. It seems in this state past performances are generally indicative of future results when it comes to playoff success.

[Nine of twelve]

I would not propose drastic changes in division alignment. Maybe if and when expansion takes place. Keep in mind team performances ebb and flow. In 2022 the NLC had a worse record than the ALC. The ALE became stronger this season due almost exclusively to the improvement of one team. I think the disparity in financial wherewithal from one franchise to another is the biggest factor here.

[wabene]

I agree with the optimism if you look objectively at what this franchise has been since their run of division titles in the aughts. It's funny that I get more frustrated with this front office than the last. My expectations were so low. Mediocre budget left unspent. Trying hard to work up excitement over Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfry etc. Rooting on Gibby to just throw some strikes. The pitching prospects that were just suspects. It was all I knew.

When the new regime was hired, I was more than ready. They checked so many boxes for me modernizing the overall organization immensely. Super excited. Since then there have been some down years and some trades that didn't work out, but here we are. The front office is spending to their market share even in down revenue years. They paid everyone during the pandemic. This has been the best sustained run since the aughts. I am one who does like Baldelli. I don't agree with everything they do. Many of Baldelli's in game moves, especially the strict platooning and early pinch hitting. But now that we have a little speed we are seeing some Small Baldelli with more safety squeezes than I've ever seen and more exciting baseball. I get super frustrated with hanging on to underperforming vets instead of trying hot young bats, but then Kepler's resurgence does somewhat vindicate their approach Gallo not withstanding.

I am optimistic. Falvey and Baldelli were green as hell when this began. Their recent drafts have been really good and their player development has also improved. I think overall management has learned and improved. Now let's see if they can take the next step and become true contenders. 

 

[Dave Borton]

5 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think the disparity in financial wherewithal from one franchise to another is the biggest factor here.

Market size, yes. Ownership, no.

San Diego's payroll shows depth of pockets trumps market size (though not W/L success). All AL Central owners are billionaires (getting my head around a billion is hard this morning).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/mlb-owners-net-worth.html

[blindeke]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do agree, Lewis - Kirilloff - Lee, along with Julien & Wallner seem special to us/me, but I know nothing about their farm guys.

If they touted system depth backed by Larnach & particularly Miranda, I would chuckle at their optimism! Fandom goes only so far before reality has to take hold.

I like our chances in first 2 rounds this year - no guarantees but a real chance!

Going forward, if we can have reasonable health, we look strong and the organization seems to spend enough to help supplement the farm system………very encouraging stuff for next 5 plus years!!

Keith Law ranks the Guardians farm system #2 in the majors.

[Trov]

As long as our young guys grow and develop as we hope, the only thing that will hold us back is poor pitching signings or trades.  We are pretty stacked in the position players, but pitching is thin at minors with guys of higher floors but lower ceilings.  I am okay with that as long as we can supplement that.  The fact that our team is surging with CC in one of his worst seasons, and Buck being out, as expected, but even when he was in he was not lighting to world on fire. Meaning if either do what they have shown in their careers will be bonus.  

I always hesitate to expect as good or better from rookies because a lot of time it comes down to adjustments.  Specifically, Julien outside of his super hot July stretch with 6 HR, he has been not hitting for much power. His OBP is still very good, and my guess pitchers started to figure out how to avoid his HR swing.  He needs to figure out how pitchers are pitching him now and adjust.  

[wabene]

12 minutes ago, blindeke said:

Keith Law ranks the Guardians farm system #2 in the majors.

That is from February. Bo Naylor features prominently for example but has graduated. The draft etc. 

[stringer bell]

I think the Twins are geared to at least go toe-to-toe with any of their AL Central competition. However, their system is not without faults. I don't see a lot of top line pitching in the minors and most pitchers are volatile. This year's major league pitching has been very good, but with the potential loss of two current starters plus a thin bullpen, next year and beyond could be a concern.

I think Cleveland will remain a threat as long as they continue to churn out good pitching. Detroit also has some really good position players plus several young arms that could propel them towards the top.

The Twins will need to keep getting better if they want to be Central royalty. In order to consistently compete with the best in MLB, they still need to take a couple steps forward.

[weitz41]

Great article.

Many reasons for optimism. If the injury bug stays within reason, I too feel pretty confident in the long term. Lee, Keirsey, Severino, Festa, Martin in AAA all look like possible contributors in the near future.

Miranda if his shoulder ever gets right. Alcala, Kirilloff, Gordon, Paddack, Steward as well. Pretty much everyone (maybe not Gray) that will be a free agent this year has a replacement already in AAA or rehabbing.

And then there's the rest of the farm. Jenkins, E Rod, Raya and most of Cedar Rapids starters.

[Karbo]

Sad to see Francona go. He is a class act and a great manager. He has taken teams not expected to win and somehow got them at least competitive. The loss of Francona may really hurt that team. I also like Detroit. I thought they would be around a .500 team this year, but they could finish ahead of Cleveland anyways. Yes the Central is a weak division. But the Twins can win it, and once into the playoffs, with the starters this team has, they have a chance to at least win a game and probably even the 1st round. After that, IMO it will depend on their hitting if they can go further.

[Whitey333]

I would like to see more competition from other teams in the Central.  I think tough competition makes a competitive team even better.  As this year unfolded I think the Twins were held back by this lack of other good teams pushing them.  I must admit they are playing better and also have a better record than I thought they would have at this point.  Now if Baldelli doesn't over think the game I think they will be ok.  Go Twins!!

[rv78]

I have been a constant critic of this FO, Manager and their philosophy. Even if you hand them the division crown for the next 3 or 4 years they'll have to prove they can compete in the playoffs or those division titles are pretty much meaningless. As many have said before, in any other division they'd probably not make the playoffs. I will give accolades to their hitting prospects they have brought in. Pitching prospects I'm still waiting. The biggest improvement I see that they could make is to stop signing veterans that do not help the team. Gallo has to be the worst addition they have ever done. Correa is 2nd on the list. Buxton extension 3rd. Another article shows how the Twins were willing to bank on Julien, thus trading Arraez. The same could be said for Lewis, He should have been the go to guy at SS instead of giving mega millions to Correa, at least until Lee is ready to take over. Correa's contract was too much for too long with 2 young studs that can play SS in the not so distant future. When given the chance these young guys are performing. Quit giving their at bats away to veterans who can't or don't do the job. 

[P Meyer]

The Twins are in a good space to compete for sure. Injuries are always a concern which is one reason I am not ready to bail on Julien or Polanco to try to solve problems that have not arrived yet. They are potentially in a place to move on from Buxton should his career be even more impacted by health. Correa doesn't have to the guy who carries the roster every game which benefits him. Some potentially solid pieces at the minor league level, and hopefully we end up having some superstars on this roster in a few years.

[Mortimerkenny21]

2 hours ago, davidborton said:

Curious. This winter, will the owners privately address the dismal state of AL Central? How might they go about that?

For a professional sport to have a perennially, dismally weak division harms the sport and business (attendance when AL Central opponent visits). AL Central is a laughing stock. It's about time to address that but don't know if or how other owners might take action.

DIVISION	RECORD OUTSIDE DIVISION
AL East	231-164 (.585)
NL East	217-198 (.523)
NL West	209-204 (.506)
AL West	201-204 (.496)
NL Central	195-207 (.485)
AL Central	157-233 (.402)

Your thoughts? db

I wonder what the Twins record is outside the division? I feel like we weren't that terrible besides the Tampa and Atlanta series.

[Dman]

I love the optimism, but Cleveland isn't all that far behind the Twins and we found out this year the Tigers look like a pretty balanced team and their farm is on the rise. The White Sox still have talent but do appear to be on the down side depth wise.  KC does have a ways to go.

The Twins system does lacks elite pitching and the cost to acquire arms is high looking at the Gray and Lopez trades.  They might have good bats to trade though as the farm and team is looking good in that regard.  They can still find arms in Free Agency as well.  Still with a volatile pen and not a lot of ready arms on the farm there are weaknesses for the Twins as well.

Yes if things break right the Twins could dominate but baseball is a fickle game.  Injuries can change things in a hurry. There is a lot to like for the future, but I don't think it is going to be as easy as this article makes it out to be.

[dex8425]

4 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Detroit is the team to keep an eye on.   I really like some of their young players, both pitchers and everyday players.    Carpenter, Wierling, Greene on the offensive side, and with a young core of good arms with a few more getting healthy, they are the team that will challenge the Twins going forward.

Agreed. Torkelson can bang, too. He's going to get better. 

[Alex Schieferdecker]

The Twins are indeed in very good shape. But that's also what the White Sox thought about themselves two years ago. Circumstances can change.

The main thing that differentiates the Twins is that they have an ownership and a front office that (whatever your gripes with them) are genuinely trying to compete. That's more than you can say for all four other teams in the division who are either in a period of not trying, or are trying to compete only on the terms of an insanely restrictive budget. More than any other factor, that's what gives me some hope that the Twins are likely division winners in the next couple years.

[Fat Calvin]

"These teams aren't rebuilding; they're smoldering."  What a great line!!