The Minnesota Twins Are Poised to Reign Over the AL Central

You are a great writer, this is a very fair article and it's nice to see some positivity after a while.  Enjoy the ride!

Nick,

Super article and you are spot on: if the FO doesn’t overthink things, we should be in for a solid open window stretch for several years. For example, not dealing our young talent at this year’s deadline is a good example of just staying in the lane that is right before our eyes.

The FO has done well drafting - ranging from insightful later round picks to not goofing off with their good luck in the first round the past two years (Lee falling to them and the lottery luck to get Jenkins - again, not overthinking those two picks).

The three big keys for ‘24 are: 1) make sure the young players continue to get better; 2) build the pen; and 3) add one more mid to upper level type starter (like a Gray).  By focusing on the young core, we should have the cash to address #2 and #3.  #1 causes the most concern - if we are successful with that, the next several years could be ridiculously fun; if not, it will truly be a waste of a special, once in a decade, opportunity.

Now, let’s step on the Guardians’ throats tomorrow and get ready to go win some playoff games! 

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They let Civale go & they traded Josh Bell …….nothing stopping them from getting an offensive OF in free agency and they’d have 5-6 good major league weapons in their line-up.

You mean beyond their franchise disinterest in spending money in free agency? They also need a major upgrade on Myles Straw (and not just because of what happened tonight) in center, dude's never broken a .600 OPS or had an OPS+ above 70 in the two seasons now he's been their primary center fielder. Not a chance in hell they splurge on Cody Bellinger (especially since there's probably a bidding war for him after this rebound season), and there's really not that many other premier center fielders they can go out and get to upgrade.

Also if we're being real, outside of Bellinger, next year's outfield free agent class has more speed to it than power or hitting for average. Not that that's necessarily a bad thing, but the Guardians could definitely use a hitter with that extra level of pop to his bat, and I don't think that kind of guy is rolling through the door.

Let's be real, they're probably closer to trading away their one remaining good hitter in Ramirez and fully sinking into the suck fest than actually building a consistent lineup. The downside of having an owner that doesn't give a s**t.

Who cares about division being bad? Not twins fault. With core players like C4 buxton Wallner along with Lewis and draft picks last 2 years with lee and Jenkins twins are set for years!!!! Not if but when another World Series championship happens.

I’m all for optimism and enjoy your writing, Nick. I’m just looking at this one day at a time right now. Win the division, win A playoff game and then keep winning playoff games. Then we can worry about the off-season and the next three seasons.

Maybe it’s the MN sports fan in me that won’t let me look that far into the future. It seems in this state past performances are generally indicative of future results when it comes to playoff success.

I would not propose drastic changes in division alignment. Maybe if and when expansion takes place. Keep in mind team performances ebb and flow. In 2022 the NLC had a worse record than the ALC. The ALE became stronger this season due almost exclusively to the improvement of one team. I think the disparity in financial wherewithal from one franchise to another is the biggest factor here.

I agree with the optimism if you look objectively at what this franchise has been since their run of division titles in the aughts. It's funny that I get more frustrated with this front office than the last. My expectations were so low. Mediocre budget left unspent. Trying hard to work up excitement over Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfry etc. Rooting on Gibby to just throw some strikes. The pitching prospects that were just suspects. It was all I knew.

When the new regime was hired, I was more than ready. They checked so many boxes for me modernizing the overall organization immensely. Super excited. Since then there have been some down years and some trades that didn't work out, but here we are. The front office is spending to their market share even in down revenue years. They paid everyone during the pandemic. This has been the best sustained run since the aughts. I am one who does like Baldelli. I don't agree with everything they do. Many of Baldelli's in game moves, especially the strict platooning and early pinch hitting. But now that we have a little speed we are seeing some Small Baldelli with more safety squeezes than I've ever seen and more exciting baseball. I get super frustrated with hanging on to underperforming vets instead of trying hot young bats, but then Kepler's resurgence does somewhat vindicate their approach Gallo not withstanding.

I am optimistic. Falvey and Baldelli were green as hell when this began. Their recent drafts have been really good and their player development has also improved. I think overall management has learned and improved. Now let's see if they can take the next step and become true contenders. 

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I do agree, Lewis - Kirilloff - Lee, along with Julien & Wallner seem special to us/me, but I know nothing about their farm guys.

If they touted system depth backed by Larnach & particularly Miranda, I would chuckle at their optimism! Fandom goes only so far before reality has to take hold.

I like our chances in first 2 rounds this year - no guarantees but a real chance!

Going forward, if we can have reasonable health, we look strong and the organization seems to spend enough to help supplement the farm system………very encouraging stuff for next 5 plus years!!

Keith Law ranks the Guardians farm system #2 in the majors.

As long as our young guys grow and develop as we hope, the only thing that will hold us back is poor pitching signings or trades.  We are pretty stacked in the position players, but pitching is thin at minors with guys of higher floors but lower ceilings.  I am okay with that as long as we can supplement that.  The fact that our team is surging with CC in one of his worst seasons, and Buck being out, as expected, but even when he was in he was not lighting to world on fire. Meaning if either do what they have shown in their careers will be bonus.  

I always hesitate to expect as good or better from rookies because a lot of time it comes down to adjustments.  Specifically, Julien outside of his super hot July stretch with 6 HR, he has been not hitting for much power. His OBP is still very good, and my guess pitchers started to figure out how to avoid his HR swing.  He needs to figure out how pitchers are pitching him now and adjust.  

12 minutes ago, blindeke said:

Keith Law ranks the Guardians farm system #2 in the majors.

That is from February. Bo Naylor features prominently for example but has graduated. The draft etc. 

Great article.

Many reasons for optimism. If the injury bug stays within reason, I too feel pretty confident in the long term. Lee, Keirsey, Severino, Festa, Martin in AAA all look like possible contributors in the near future.

Miranda if his shoulder ever gets right. Alcala, Kirilloff, Gordon, Paddack, Steward as well. Pretty much everyone (maybe not Gray) that will be a free agent this year has a replacement already in AAA or rehabbing.

And then there's the rest of the farm. Jenkins, E Rod, Raya and most of Cedar Rapids starters.

I would like to see more competition from other teams in the Central.  I think tough competition makes a competitive team even better.  As this year unfolded I think the Twins were held back by this lack of other good teams pushing them.  I must admit they are playing better and also have a better record than I thought they would have at this point.  Now if Baldelli doesn't over think the game I think they will be ok.  Go Twins!!

I have been a constant critic of this FO, Manager and their philosophy. Even if you hand them the division crown for the next 3 or 4 years they'll have to prove they can compete in the playoffs or those division titles are pretty much meaningless. As many have said before, in any other division they'd probably not make the playoffs. I will give accolades to their hitting prospects they have brought in. Pitching prospects I'm still waiting. The biggest improvement I see that they could make is to stop signing veterans that do not help the team. Gallo has to be the worst addition they have ever done. Correa is 2nd on the list. Buxton extension 3rd. Another article shows how the Twins were willing to bank on Julien, thus trading Arraez. The same could be said for Lewis, He should have been the go to guy at SS instead of giving mega millions to Correa, at least until Lee is ready to take over. Correa's contract was too much for too long with 2 young studs that can play SS in the not so distant future. When given the chance these young guys are performing. Quit giving their at bats away to veterans who can't or don't do the job. 

The Twins are in a good space to compete for sure. Injuries are always a concern which is one reason I am not ready to bail on Julien or Polanco to try to solve problems that have not arrived yet. They are potentially in a place to move on from Buxton should his career be even more impacted by health. Correa doesn't have to the guy who carries the roster every game which benefits him. Some potentially solid pieces at the minor league level, and hopefully we end up having some superstars on this roster in a few years.

2 hours ago, davidborton said:

Curious. This winter, will the owners privately address the dismal state of AL Central? How might they go about that?

For a professional sport to have a perennially, dismally weak division harms the sport and business (attendance when AL Central opponent visits). AL Central is a laughing stock. It's about time to address that but don't know if or how other owners might take action.

DIVISION	RECORD OUTSIDE DIVISION
AL East	231-164 (.585)
NL East	217-198 (.523)
NL West	209-204 (.506)
AL West	201-204 (.496)
NL Central	195-207 (.485)
AL Central	157-233 (.402)

Your thoughts? db

I wonder what the Twins record is outside the division? I feel like we weren't that terrible besides the Tampa and Atlanta series.

4 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Detroit is the team to keep an eye on.   I really like some of their young players, both pitchers and everyday players.    Carpenter, Wierling, Greene on the offensive side, and with a young core of good arms with a few more getting healthy, they are the team that will challenge the Twins going forward.

Agreed. Torkelson can bang, too. He's going to get better. 

The Twins are indeed in very good shape. But that's also what the White Sox thought about themselves two years ago. Circumstances can change.

The main thing that differentiates the Twins is that they have an ownership and a front office that (whatever your gripes with them) are genuinely trying to compete. That's more than you can say for all four other teams in the division who are either in a period of not trying, or are trying to compete only on the terms of an insanely restrictive budget. More than any other factor, that's what gives me some hope that the Twins are likely division winners in the next couple years.

"These teams aren't rebuilding; they're smoldering."  What a great line!!

4 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Detroit is the team to keep an eye on.   I really like some of their young players, both pitchers and everyday players.    Carpenter, Wierling, Greene on the offensive side, and with a young core of good arms with a few more getting healthy, they are the team that will challenge the Twins going forward.

Both the Tigers and Guardians have good, young pitching, but the offenses are both a few bats away from competing. The Tigers have Cabrera coming off the books and that may make them a player in FA once again.