The Twins Won’t Exercise Max Kepler’s Option…Will They?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Max Kepler has played nine years for the Minnesota Twins after they signed him as an international free agent out of Germany. His backstory is well-documented, and the son of ballet dancers has become a staple for the Twins. 2023 looked to be the end of the line, but thanks to a recent resurgence, that seems less straightforward.

 

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the season, for the second offseason in a row, the Twins front office had a straightforward opportunity to trade Max Kepler. They had Alex Kirilloff ready for more playing time, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner knocking on the door. Pepper in Joey Gallo for $11 million over the winter, and the log jam for Rocco Baldelli's outfield was piling up.

Without the infield shift, the theory was that it would give Kepler additional opportunities for production. Still, knowing that his downfall has been launch angle more than anything, that wasn't a guaranteed outcome. As of June 18, Kepler has bottomed out with a .189/.261/.365 slash line. His .625 OPS wasn't cutting it, and the otherwise outstanding defense in right field also slipped.

Then he turned it on.

For 40 games from June 20 through August 6, Kepler slashed .291/.343/.582. For a slumping Twins lineup, he had become arguably their best bat. When the trade deadline came, the front office may have had an opportunity to again capitalize on what they believed was fair value for him, but instead stood pat. Kepler has continued to rake and destroyed the longest home run hit this season over the weekend against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was his third straight game with a home run, and shades of his 2019 Bomba Squad season were showing.

At one point during the 2023 season, Kepler had posted a negative WAR at Fangraphs, being worse than a replacement-level player. As of August 7, he's pushed his season tally back up to 1.2, making him the fourth-highest productive hitter for Minnesota. Although Kepler's defense hasn't rebounded entirely, he still owns 2 DRS and 3 OAA on the season, putting him above an average outfielder.

Kepler will play all of the 2023 season at 30 and turns 31 in February. Due to the substantial turnaround, he has given the Twins' front office new things to consider for 2024. At this point, it looks like Larnach is not a given to be a consistently productive player, and Kirilloff can play first base when healthy. If he makes it through the season, Gallo will be gone over the winter, and the outfield doesn't have any guaranteed additions unless that's where Royce Lewis begins in 2024.

Playing on the final guaranteed year of his contract extension this season, Kepler is making $8.5 million. That number jumps up only slightly next year at $10 million and is still less than what the Twins needed to give Gallo after an atrocious showing for the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers a year ago.

At his current fWAR production, Fangraphs estimates Kepler's value at $9.7 million. Assuming he slows down some but continues to add, he should finish well beyond the cost of keeping him next season, and he'll have done it despite digging a massive hole.

The Twins would prefer a more straightforward version of success rather than a significant peak having to make up for the valley, but baseball is 162 games for a reason. Kepler has utilized the entire schedule to get on track this season, and he has the runway in front of him to continue being a key cog for a Minnesota postseason run.

It would have been lunacy to pose this question even a couple of months ago, and I was all but out on Kepler myself. At this point, he's at least made the decision worth considering, and he could make it an absolute no-brainer by season's end.

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[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The buyout is 1 million,  so the question is will the Twins pay an additional $9 million and I would say yes.  Now whether they would then trade him or keep as the RF I don't know. If Kepler performs down the stretch though and gives the team a 2 or 3 war for the season it would be a no brainer to pick up the option. There would be excess value in that contract.    I think Kepler is showing a much better approach at the plate and with much more confidence.  Polanco would be the other question, is would think the Twins  also exercise his option as well even though I am not sure we have a spot for him.  The Twins will have some decisions to make this offseason.  

[farmerguychris]

I like Max.  But - his inconsistency makes me uninterested in bringing him back when we have alternatives who are cheaper, and have at least as high of floor as he has waiting in the wings.

However, I agree with the article - with this FO history of keeping vets longer than they should, I fear they will pick that option up.  I felt that even before he started hitting recently, and I think this only confirms that fear.  I still hope they can pick it up and trade him allowing us to use that $10M elsewhere.

[Guest]

Kep's playing with some want-to that hasn't been evident YTD.  Funny thing about that economics thingy when a player nears the end of his contract.  But, I've liked the guy and his potential for a long time.  I wish him success, and if the FO thinks he's really matured, then I hope we resign him.

[roger]

Expect many of you who have been calling for the Twins to DFA or trade Max for a bucket of balls may, I repeat, may be in for a surprise come the off-season.  I expect there is a good chance the Twins either exercise their option or sign him to a new contract for a couple years at a few less dollars per.

Yes, Max had been hitting much like last year the first several months of the season.  He also had a few game stretch earlier where he didn't seem to be himself in right field.  But the fact the shifts are gone may have finally settled into his brain and he has begun feeling good about stepping up to the plate.  The results have been his possibly being the Twins best hitter the past month or so.  He also is back to being that guy you would have out in right field rather than anyone else.

[Dman]

First things first Kepler has to remain consistent the rest of the season and given his history that is far from a certainty.  If he does manage that then picking up the option seems likely.   I still think they might want to trade him if his value has been reestablished but they would need a really good offer to move him as this FO doesn't move players they value without getting one.  If they are inclined to keep him it seems like they would want to try and deal Larnach.  They have Emmanual Rodriguez who could be ready next year but more likely will need a spot by 2025. Rosario a right handed power hitter is right there with him and they could use Keirsey in a 4th outfielder role that would allow for good to great defense at all three outfield spots.  Lewis might be in the mix as well. Someone is going to have to be moved at some point. I guess we will know more in the next couple of months.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Unless he falls back into the black hole he was in earlier this year I think they pick up the option. The only other thing that could make them let him go is if the Pohlads hold or cut payroll next year and they cant fit him in.

[Karbo]

Looking at the history of this FO I'm guessing they pick up the option. I just hope he didn't get badly hurt last night by the HBP in the foot.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

First things first Kepler has to remain consistent the rest of the season and given his history that is far from a certainty.  If he does manage that then picking up the option seems likely.   I still think they might want to trade him if his value has been reestablished but they would need a really good offer to move him as this FO doesn't move players they value without getting one.  If they are inclined to keep him it seems like they would want to try and deal Larnach.  They have Emmanual Rodriguez who could be ready next year but more likely will need a spot by 2025. Rosario a right handed power hitter is right there with him and they could use Keirsey in a 4th outfielder role that would allow for good to great difference at all three outfield spots.  Lewis might be in the mix as well. Someone is going to have to be moved at some point. I guess we will know more in the next couple of months.

I would think they would trade Kepler for excess value, and then hope Larnach can begin to figure it out.  Wallner seems to be locking in the LF position, but we have seen sophmore slumps before.   Center and RF would be question marks.    For me this comes down to 3 decisions the Twins will need to make.  

1. Buxton - do you keep him or trade him.   With his contract and previous performance this is still an excess value proposition but if he has another poor year the value begins to degrade fairly rapidly.  If they want out of the contract and move in a different direction this offseason will be the time.  

2. Kepler - if you trade Buxton most likely I think you would keep Kepler for stability for 1 more year and see what happens in CF and that Wallner continues to perform.  

3. Polanco- I would think the Twins would not pick up the contract, as the depth in the infield is stacked and I don't see a proposition of being able to then trade him for excess value unless he has a bananas end of the season and post season similar to an Eddie Rosario with the Braves.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Love Max.  Absolutely one of my favorite Twins from this recent era.  Love what he is doing right now as well.  He’s resurgence is one of the key factors in our climb past the Guardians. Geez, hope he keeps it up.

Having said that, the question remains - who is the real Max Kepler at this stage in his career? Sorry, but it’s not unreasonable to have the under on the next two years or so of Max’s career vs. how he has played since the All-Star break. Two weeks or so ago, it seemed pretty clear we couldn’t trade him for even a long-shot prospect. Now we are willing to pick up his option for a net $9MM?

Let’s hold steady and see how the year plays out.  The way things are going, there are a vast range of potential outcomes for Max - from a buyout, a one year pick up, a pickup followed by a trade, a new multi year deal, etc.

Poor Larnach, his chances for an extended, real look just get slimmer and slimmer. Next thing he knows Gallo will get hot and there will be talk about another $11MM one year deal for him.  How he must wish he had been traded at the deadline.  

 

[Althebum82]

There can be little doubt about the benefits of a recency effect.  Had he started out red hot the first half of the season and then crapped out down the stretch posting his current numbers as final, the answer would be no.  Overall his total season numbers right now are okay but unspectacular and not worth $9M given other player options noted by others. 

But no doubt it is a thoughtful question the way the season has unfolded for him.  Kinda makes you wonder if the issues that have lead to some IL time were more of a lingering battle than we all knew.  Maybe it took this long to fully get back to his physical potential. 

On the other hand, maybe that thought should really be completely irrelevant.  I guess only Kepler himself knows.

It is fun to see him making the contribution to the team success that we all expected from him.

In the end, I also believe they will do the extension.

 

[stringer bell]

I’ve been thinking about this for some time. Since late June, Kepler has been a fine right fielder. Health might have been an underlying factor in his poor performance idk, but he’s been very good for about six weeks. It appears they have a cheaper, more powerful replacement in Matt Wallner. Tough call, for sure. 

[jmlease1]

I think there's a real possibility they pick up the option. He's still very tradable at that number (assuming he finishes the season strong enough to warrant the exercise of the option), and if he finishes strong there's a good likelihood he could be an asset against RHP next season.

But I think this comes down to a choice between Larnach and Kepler, and one of them will probably not be on the team next season.

[JYTwinsFan]

Ted, since you set up that his issue was launch angle, it would be great to understand how Kepler has achieved this success since June. It seems the key factor in whether to pick up the option is not the stats, but whether the changes he's made are sustainable.

It seems to me that if there's a hint of it being sustainable, it is worth picking up the option: a) you're just not going to find much better out there for that price, b) you can always trade Kepler after picking up the option, c) a motivated Kepler to repeat this success in 2024 given it will be another "contract year" at a prime 31 years old, is probably a worthwhile bet, d) trading a controllable and younger w/ potential Larnach probably has a lot more value to convert into a longer term piece elsewhere on the diamond.

On another note...I felt this since spring training, but Kepler looks physically bigger to me. Has there been any reporting on him putting on weight/muscle?

[mickster]

23 minutes ago, roger said:

Expect many of you who have been calling for the Twins to DFA or trade Max for a bucket of balls may, I repeat, may be in for a surprise come the off-season.  I expect there is a good chance the Twins either exercise their option or sign him to a new contract for a couple years at a few less dollars per.

Yes, Max had been hitting much like last year the first several months of the season.  He also had a few game stretch earlier where he didn't seem to be himself in right field.  But the fact the shifts are gone may have finally settled into his brain and he has begun feeling good about stepping up to the plate.  The results have been his possibly being the Twins best hitter the past month or so.  He also is back to being that guy you would have out in right field rather than anyone else.

I have been a "Max has to go guy", but even I am thinking he may be someone to keep.   Larnach was my preferred player, but maybe they can flip him instead.   Kepler has pushed himself into a good spot that makes this decision much more difficult, and that is a good thing for Twins fans as we push towards the postseason.   I am not delusional and think we can win it all, but with the quality of pitching we have and a lineup that is awaking - just get in and we have a punchers shot at an upset.

[Dman]

23 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

 

1. Buxton - do you keep him or trade him.   With his contract and previous performance this is still an excess value proposition but if he has another poor year the value begins to degrade fairly rapidly.  If they want out of the contract and move in a different direction this offseason will be the time.  

 

I believe Buxton only signed with the Twins for the incentive laden contract if he got a no trade clause.  He was signing a lessor deal because he likes Minnesota and wanted to stay there. It was how the deal got done so I don't believe trading Buxton is an option.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

I believe Buxton only signed with the Twins for the incentive laden contract if he got a no trade clause.  He was signing a lessor deal because he likes Minnesota and wanted to stay there. It was how the deal got done so I don't believe trading Buxton is an option.

It becomes an option if Buxton thinks he can do better in another organization.  However I didn't realize he had a no trade clause til 2026.   

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Much to the chagrin of the mob, I believe they will pick up his option.  There are other OF at a higher risk of not being here next year (Taylor, Gordon, Gallo).

You have to ask yourself what type of improvement could you get for $10m?  Kepler is a known product.  He has been with the organization a long time (sorry guys, there is value in that).  Brings strong defense and decent power.  If he was more consistent with the bat, he would be making considerably more.  By all accounts he is a good clubhouse glue guy.

Personally, I would like to see him provide more flexibility in the OF, playing wherever they need him.  He is a strong enough defender to play all three positions.

There are much bigger concerns than Kepler on the roster, feels like an easy decision.

[USAFChief]

I'd say it's 80-20 he's a MN Twin on opening day 2024.

The "excess" in the OF, which is somewhat exaggerated, will evaporate. Gallo will be gone for sure, I doubt they resign Taylor, Gordon might not even be a Twin and shouldn't be a starting OFer if he is. Larnach hasn't earned any kind of playing time. There are no outfielders in the minors beating down the door. At this point for 2024, you've probably got Wallner, and hope that Buxton can somehow play CF. And Wallner has proven nothing yet, although it's easy to like what he's shown to date. 

A free agent right fielder, better than Kepler and/or cheaper? Here's the list

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/outfield/

Not very inspiring. 

On second thought, Make it 90-10 Kepler's in RF on opening day for the Twins.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I’m one of those “trade him for a bucket of balls” guys, although in my defense, I said maybe two buckets.  

We need to take a collective deep breath and wait on this decision.  IF he continues to hit like he has the past few weeks, then it probably makes sense to pick up the option, whether that is to realize excess value in a trade or whether to keep him to play next year.  However, prior to this little uptick, he has spent the better part of three years as a pumpkin at the plate.  Is it possible that he was dealing with some injury issues at the beginning of this season?  Sure it is, but it seems doubtful that he was dealing with said issues for most of the past three years.  

Part of my reasoning for not bringing him back is that we have other corner outfield types that would likely put up as good as or better numbers for a lesser price.  No, we don’t know that Larnach is going to work out.  No, we don’t know that Wallner won’t have a sophomore slump next year.  No, we don’t know if Lewis or Martin will switch to the outfield because of a glut of middle infielders.  No, we don’t know if Emmanuel Rodriguez will live up to the hype in a year or two.  HOWEVER, having Max Kepler in a starting role in the OF with mediocre (at best) production keeps us from have the space on the roster and in the lineup to find out about all of those other players — any one of which is likely to be better in the long run.  

For right now, Max, keep hitting the way you have been.  It helps the team and gets you a better contract for next year, no matter where that is!

[Nashvilletwin]

7 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

There are other OF at a higher risk of not being here next year (Taylor, Gordon, Gallo).

So, with respect to Gallo, are you implying that the ‘ol “Sooo, you’re telling me I still have a chance” is still on the table?  I’d assume Jim Carey had a better chance…but, hey, maybe you’re right - who knows with this FO.

Bottom line - nothing to do on Max until year end.  Let’s just sit back and enjoy the show (for which we have been waiting for so long and which is really fun to watch).  

[khal149]

I can't believe I'm saying this as I was strongly in the DFA camp for he and Gallo about 6 weeks ago, but if he can provide a relatively strong finish the season, not necessarily as high as he is now, I think he's worth the option, even if only as a trade piece.  If Gallo can fetch $11M, Kepler coming off a WAR of 2-3 should be worth $10M.  I wouldn't be too keen to commit to another multi-year contract though unless he finishes really strong, and they plan to move Larnach.  

[Jocko87]

34 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think there's a real possibility they pick up the option. He's still very tradable at that number (assuming he finishes the season strong enough to warrant the exercise of the option), and if he finishes strong there's a good likelihood he could be an asset against RHP next season.

But I think this comes down to a choice between Larnach and Kepler, and one of them will probably not be on the team next season.

I think its pretty obvious they will pick up the option, its a procedural matter at this point.  It's much less clear if he will remain with the team next year but that's a completely different question.  There is almost no chance they let him walk for free at that number. 

Same post for Polanco, when that article comes out remember me fondly. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

I've long been in the dump Max crowd but I do think they will pick up his option, particularly if there are metrics that suggest this recent resurgence might be sustainable. Why? Because WE GOT NOBODY ELSE FOR 2024. Your 2024 Twins OF without Kepler - it's uh, well, uh, hmmm, here are the options:

Buxton - maybe but for no more than 100 games in the field, likely less.

Wallner - has looked great in 82 ABs, classic small sample size but I say he starts in 2024. 

Larnach - maybe, but a career MLB slash line of .223/315/.380(.695) suggests we at least need a fall back if he doesn't work out.

Taylor - nice 4th OF, not an everyday starter on a contending team. Pending FA who may want to go to a team where he can start if Buxton is going to play CF. 

Lewis - maybe, but last time in the OF, he tore his ACL. Not sure the Twins want him out there again.   

Gordon - maybe, but so far a half year wonder, hardly an established OF. 

Castro - nice UTL guy, hitting almost exactly where his career lines are - .247/.331/.376 (.706), 96 OPS+ this year, career .681 OPS, 89 OPS+. Sounds like a 4th or 5th OF to me.  

Gallo and Lupow - please no. 

IFs maybe turned into OFs - Polanco, Julien, Miranda - doesn't seem like a good bet. Maybe Polanco could do it? 

Other AAA OFs - Celestino, Garlick, Keirsey, Prato, Stevenson - a lot in their mid-late 20s (not a good sign for a "prospect"), high SO rates all around. Best slash line is Stevenson and he'll turn 30 in June, 2024. Hard to see a 2024 starter in that group.  Frankly, hard to see a 2024 bench player there except maaaybe Celestino, with Keirsey and Prato an outside chance. The rest are AAAA depth.  

Free agents - does anyone really think the Twins will commit $15m a year plus to a free agent OF? I don't. 

To me, the Bottom line is that I hope Kepler's second half is who will be next year. Heck, I would take .240/.310/.440 next year from Max. We need to hope, because the Twins will exercise the one year option for a very simple reason - because we don't have anyone else we can count on to replace him. And, it's only one year so we can trade him at mid-season if someone else takes his job. 

[aberamsey]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

I like Max.  But - his inconsistency makes me uninterested in bringing him back when we have alternatives who are cheaper, and have at least as high of floor as he has waiting in the wings.

However, I agree with the article - with this FO history of keeping vets longer than they should, I fear they will pick that option up.  I felt that even before he started hitting recently, and I think this only confirms that fear.  I still hope they can pick it up and trade him allowing us to use that $10M elsewhere.

Do they really have alternatives waiting in the wings? I feel like next year's lineup has kind of solidified lately. Gallo is clearly not coming back. Wallner has passed Larnach in the organization so next year it makes sense to have Wallner in left and Kepler in right. As far as the alternatives that have at least "as high a floor" I'm not sure who you're referring to, because Larnach clearly hasn't shown that he has the ability to produce at the current Kepler level both offensively or defensively. Who is behind Larnach? Rodriquez arrives in 2025 at the earliest. Kirilloff makes sense at first-- if healthy of course. At this point I feel the Twins need to pick up the option. It's a reasonable contract based on the production he is showing now. 

[jorgenswest]

30 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd say it's 80-20 he's a MN Twin on opening day 2024.

The "excess" in the OF, which is somewhat exaggerated, will evaporate. Gallo will be gone for sure, I doubt they resign Taylor, Gordon might not even be a Twin and shouldn't be a starting OFer if he is. Larnach hasn't earned any kind of playing time. There's no outfielders in the minors beating down the door. At this point for 2024, you've probably got Wallner, and hope that Buxton can somehow play CF. And Wallner has proven nothing yet, although it's easy to like what he's shown to date. 

A free agent right fielder, better than Kepler and/or cheaper? Here's the list

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/outfield/

Not very inspiring. 

Make it 90-10 Kepler's in RF on opening day for the Twins.

Concur

[aberamsey]

24 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I’m one of those “trade him for a bucket of balls” guys, although in my defense, I said maybe two buckets.  

We need to take a collective deep breath and wait on this decision.  IF he continues to hit like he has the past few weeks, then it probably makes sense to pick up the option, whether that is to realize excess value in a trade or whether to keep him to play next year.  However, prior to this little uptick, he has spent the better part of three years as a pumpkin at the plate.  Is it possible that he was dealing with some injury issues at the beginning of this season?  Sure it is, but it seems doubtful that he was dealing with said issues for most of the past three years.  

Part of my reasoning for not bringing him back is that we have other corner outfield types that would likely put up as good as or better numbers for a lesser price.  No, we don’t know that Larnach is going to work out.  No, we don’t know that Wallner won’t have a sophomore slump next year.  No, we don’t know if Lewis or Martin will switch to the outfield because of a glut of middle infielders.  No, we don’t know if Emmanuel Rodriguez will live up to the hype in a year or two.  HOWEVER, having Max Kepler in a starting role in the OF with mediocre (at best) production keeps us from have the space on the roster and in the lineup to find out about all of those other players — any one of which is likely to be better in the long run.  

For right now, Max, keep hitting the way you have been.  It helps the team and gets you a better contract for next year, no matter where that is!

This is a giant leap of faith. The idea that "any" of the players you listed are "likely" to be better than Kepler, in

the long run, is a pretty bold statement. Lewis perhaps, but is he an outfielder? Martin? Come on, at this point, it's impossible to predict if he will even be a big leaguer. Rodriquez, perhaps, but definitely not next season. We have to remember that the object is to put the best team on the field, within the financial constraints that the organization sets. Kepler has a reasonable option. He is most likely not blocking Wallner next year. The object is to put the best team on the field and win games, not find out whether or not guys can play. 

[CRF]

There's no doubt he really picked his AB's since the break. He's a different player. Whether or not he keeps it up remains to be seen. If he does, it's great for us and I'd bet he gets extended. If not, and he goes right back to the Kep we've seen the past couple years, and the first half of this one...then, I'd shop him. If it we're to somehow come down to keeping Kep or Gallo...well, that's the biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind! Personally, I think it's time to move on from him and give the job to Wallner, but I'd be surprised if the FO does that. 

[Road trip]

12 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think its pretty obvious they will pick up the option, its a procedural matter at this point.  It's much less clear if he will remain with the team next year but that's a completely different question.  There is almost no chance they let him walk for free at that number. 

Same post for Polanco, when that article comes out remember me fondly. 

Agreed, so long as he doesn't fall apart over the next two months.  If Kepler finishes somewhere around his current OPS+ of 108, he would likely get around 12 - 15 million as a free agent on a one year, and likely could find a 3 year offer somewhere.  He's still a good fielder, and the list of potential free agent outfielders is rather slim.  He's a bargain at 10M.

I think we all look at his average/power numbers and think, "this is all we get from a corner outfield spot?"  Truth is, his production is above average.  Pitchers are still dominating the game.  We've got to forget about the video game numbers that hitters put up a few years ago.

[Trov]

The question is, can they do better with someone else for a price they are willing to pay? My guess they are almost done with Larnach as a viable MLB option, and will be looking to shop him, but may roll with him.  Wallner is clearly looking like a guy that will get a corner spot. Now, part of it may come down to how many of our many infield guys learn to play more OF.  Right now going into next year we have more expected MLB level starting infielders than places to play them.  Lewis, Lee, Julien, AK, CC, and Polanco.  If Buck needs to play DH next year too, then we have 2 guys that need to find at bats elsewhere.  There is also others on our roster that can take up at bats in OF.  

So despite his recent hot streak, I think they will move on from Kepler, but you never know.