The Twins Won’t Exercise Max Kepler’s Option…Will They?

[TwinkieFan4life]

Max is solid veteran depth, who can be an asset in the field and at the plate.  He has not been a star since his big year, but he has had solid seasons.  He is affordable.  Why not pick up the final year.  Probably wouldn't consider extending him beyond his age 31 season though.  

Play Wallner in left and Larnach Should get opportunity as inevitable injuries occur.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think both contracts are pretty tradable, and if you have to you can always eat a little of the remaining cash if that's the barrier to getting the prospect you want. (despite the "cheap Pohlads" narrative, they've done it in the past)

Part of this gets easier with Gallo not being in the picture next season. It'll be a really interesting question to see if Larnach is in the twins plans or not; I think he's out of options next year?

The Twins four biggest contracts for position players (this year):  Correa--$33M, .689 OPS, .9 WAR. Buxton--$15+ M, .731 OPS, .8 WAR. Gallo--$11M, .726 OPS, .4 WAR. Vázquez--$10 M, .592 OPS, -.2 WAR. If they were getting value from their highest paid players, we wouldn't be in a race for a division crown. 

Does it mean the Twins will sour on big contracts for position players? I dunno. 

[Whitey333]

I've always liked Kepler.  But before this 5 to 6 week barrage he had hit a total of only 216 since the start of the 2021 seasons.  Not great fir the past two and half years.  I don't mind if they keep him but I actually think it's time for both Kepler and Polanco to go this off season.  GobTwins

[Dave Lemke]

Both TV and radio announcers have brought up that Kepler's swing is shorter and more compact than previously. Allowing a quicker swing and a little more trajectory on contact. Sounds like Kep and Popkins have been working on swing for awhile. Hopefully the recent results are sustainable.

 

[farmerguychris]

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Much to the chagrin of the mob, I believe they will pick up his option.  There are other OF at a higher risk of not being here next year (Taylor, Gordon, Gallo).

You have to ask yourself what type of improvement could you get for $10m?  Kepler is a known product.  He has been with the organization a long time (sorry guys, there is value in that).  Brings strong defense and decent power.  If he was more consistent with the bat, he would be making considerably more.  By all accounts he is a good clubhouse glue guy.

Personally, I would like to see him provide more flexibility in the OF, playing wherever they need him.  He is a strong enough defender to play all three positions.

There are much bigger concerns than Kepler on the roster, feels like an easy decision.

You  make a subtle comment about where he plays in the OF - I think his unwillingness to play CF is detrimental to the team.  If he's going to make $10M next year with us- He needs to be willing to play where we need him to play.

[Major League Ready]

90+ percent chance they pick-up Kepler's option unless he really falls off the rest of the way.  80+ percent chance he is a Minnesota Twin in 24.  We just don't have much depth.  

Polanco is a different story.  2;1 he is not a Minnesota Twin.  We have enough options that it's not a huge risk letting him go. I think there is a good chance they exercise the option because there is decent chance he has trade value.  The 2nd year option reduces risk so I can see him bringing something back.  I hope he is good the rest of the season and gets us a nice prospect.  A AA RH hitting OFer or a catcher would be great.

We can feel pretty good about the future INF with Kirilloff / Julien / Correa / Lee / Castro / Farmer and maybe Miranda / Prato or Severino.  I hope Lewis ends up in the OF but who knows things could change where it makes sense to have him in the IF.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Road trip said:

Agreed, so long as he doesn't fall apart over the next two months.  If Kepler finishes somewhere around his current OPS+ of 108, he would likely get around 12 - 15 million as a free agent on a one year, and likely could find a 3 year offer somewhere.  He's still a good fielder, and the list of potential free agent outfielders is rather slim.  He's a bargain at 10M.

I think we all look at his average/power numbers and think, "this is all we get from a corner outfield spot?"  Truth is, his production is above average.  Pitchers are still dominating the game.  We've got to forget about the video game numbers that hitters put up a few years ago.

If he stays healthy and gets in another 44-45 games the OPS+ of 110 should be attainable with 25 HR in ‘23. His BA should finish above .240. His defense is solid. Continuity with the club …….he seems enthused to play. Big cuts - good contact - even when making outs!

He needs to keep rolling at some positive level, particularly in playoffs, & then Twins will have to pick up his option for ‘24.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I just don't see Julien at 1st. Stone hands there is worse than at 2nd. A 1st baseman doesn't have to be mobile, but needs to have a soft glove. That ain't Julien. 

Does Julien really have trouble receiving a thrown ball? He has trouble with batted balls but that's very different.

[gman]

Before jumping on the keep Kepler bandwagon, what happens if they put Buxton back in the outfield next year(which everyone is hoping for) but it's not center field. He can't maintain his health in center and never has. He can't even do it from the bench.

If Buxton play's left or right do you keep Kepler? Do you then trade both Larnach and Wallner?

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Does Julien really have trouble receiving a thrown ball? He has trouble with batted balls but that's very different.

From where I sit on my Ekornes stressless recliner he has bad hands, which manifest themselves in catching baseballs no matter how they originate.

Obviously catching a line drive, whether from a bat or an arm is way easier than catching balls bouncing, but not all throws to a first baseman are chest high on a line.

Maybe I'm over reacting, but he just looks to me like a miss waiting to happen. 

Also maybe he can improve, but IMO that's unlikely. A guy with soft hands can learn to field grounders. A guy with a good but inaccurate arm can learn to throw. But bad hands...those are tough to fix.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, clone52 said:

I'm not sure we have a lot of alternatives who are cheaper and have at least as high a floor as Max.  I certainly wouldn't put Larnach on that list.

If you include Kiriloff and Lewis on the list, then sure, they do, but that means they need to fill 1B.

I think you go with this as your starters next year.

DH - Julien

1B - Kiriloff

2B - Polanco

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Wallner

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Bench - Vasquez, Larnach, Castro, Taylor

If something happens and its decided that Buxton can never play the field again, then you adjust and probably don't need Kepler.  But as it stands, I think you keep him and stick with the depth you have.  Otherwise with an injury or 2 (which we always have), you're going to have Nick Gordon or Austin Martin getting significant corner OF playing time.

Farmer is signed for ‘24. Not a bad thing. Need a roster spot.

Julien HAS to get better and able to play at least 50% of the time at 2B. He needs 2 weeks off after season and then he needs to go to the Infielder’s version of Driveline!!!

Can’t complain about Buxton “clogging the DH spot all year” and then just park Julien there for next 10 years.

Lewis - Castro - Martin ……..possibly Castro as best option ……….need to play CF.

Gordon is a long shot to stick but he should certainly be given an opportunity in CF with this group above as well.

Honestly, I don’t see us hanging on to an oft injured Polanco. Lee - Castro - Julien - Farmer seem to have 2B covered!

Larnach or Taylor or both are out of the mix……more than likely, Polanco as well. Need the roster spots for youth………abandoning Solano??

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Does Julien really have trouble receiving a thrown ball? He has trouble with batted balls but that's very different.

I can't imagine him being super good at picking poor throws with the hands he's shown. And his feet are terrible. Can't picture him easily changing his feet on off the mark throws to be able to best stretch in one direction or the other.

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

From where I sit on my Ekornes stressless recliner he has bad hands, which manifest themselves in catching baseballs no matter how they originate.

Obviously catching a line drive, whether from a bat or an arm is way easier than catching balls bouncing, but not all throws to a first baseman are chest high on a line.

Maybe I'm over reacting, but he just looks to me like a miss waiting to happen. 

Also maybe he can improve, but IMO that's unlikely. A guy with soft hands can learn to field grounders. A guy with a good but inaccurate arm can learn to throw. But bad hands...those are tough to fix.

Julien is currently unplayable as a second baseman. He fumbles grounders and isn't good enough turning the pivot. Rocco is correct in regularly removing him from the game for a defensive replacement. If he can't handle 1B he's pretty much a DH.

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Julien is currently unplayable as a second baseman. He fumbles grounders and isn't good enough turning the pivot. Rocco is correct in regularly removing him from the game for a defensive replacement. If he can't handle 1B he's pretty much a DH.

I agree he's not a good 2nd baseman, but I think he would be even worse at 1st because he'd handle the ball so much more. You'd add another x number of ground balls not turned into outs.

If he's actually this hitter then I'd live with his defense at 2nd. 

But that's just like, my opinion, man.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I agree he's not a good 2nd baseman, but I think he would be even worse at 1st because he'd handle the ball so much more. You'd add another x number of ground balls not turned into outs.

If he's actually this hitter then I'd live with his defense at 2nd. 

But that's just like, my opinion, man.

You handle the ball more at 1B but they're easier chances. 2B definitely has more total difficult chances than 1B. Inability to turn a double play is a killer when it comes to defensive value at second. Arraez went from below average 2B to Gold Glove candidate at 1B. It's not that hard.

[Blyleven2011]

I don't know what to expect the FO to do ...

Kepler has a .233 career batting average ( is that acceptable with his defense  , and some say his defense is diminishing  ) , Kepler had a career year in 2019 with a .252 average .

He has never hit before or after 2019 , his previous high average was .243 in 2017 he has not been a consistent hitter or a clutch hitter since 2019 , like his defense all these years ( nothing but raindrops falls ) ..

I'm glad Kepler has found some success but Kepler has always been a streaky hitter ,,,

Everyone  calling for him to be traded or dfa'd this year but now the tune has changed since the allstar break , WAY TO GO MAX , keep riding the high road please ... 

If the Twins resign Kepler  , I hope we don't go back to demanding he gets dfa'd or traded , one year is enough ...

[Riverbrian]

The decision doesn't have to be made today. We all get two more months of regular season and hopefully playoffs to watch him. 

If the decision had to be made today. There is no way I pick up that option. 

I am really enjoying his play of late but I'm going to stay consistent. I would have released him in June when the team was crying for someone to hit. 

I can't forget how he performed in the first half of this season and nor can I forget his performance in 2022 and in 2021. 

I'm really enjoying his play right now but there is no way I don't exercise that out in his contract. 

If he keeps doing this for the rest of the year... well... maybe. 

 

[Hashim]

Do you we need to bring him back though? We have so many good young outfielders in the minors raring to go. Martin, Williams (Kirilloff to OF), Larnach, Stevenson, Prato, Kiersey, and Camargo are all ready to go or almost ready. We can trade him and get some good value now. 

[Hashim]

1 hour ago, gman said:

Before jumping on the keep Kepler bandwagon, what happens if they put Buxton back in the outfield next year(which everyone is hoping for) but it's not center field. He can't maintain his health in center and never has. He can't even do it from the bench.

If Buxton play's left or right do you keep Kepler? Do you then trade both Larnach and Wallner?

No way we trade Wallner unless we’re getting a better player back in return. I don’t even think Larnach will get traded because they still believe in him. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Does Julien really have trouble receiving a thrown ball? He has trouble with batted balls but that's very different.

He missed a waste high throw from the catcher on a steal play at 2B about 3 days ago. Completely missed the ball - decent throw - looked like a fool. I like Julien, but he has no intuitive feel on the defensive side.

He needs to get to Winter ball somewhere after season ends and he needs to work on his skills at 2B!!!

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Hashim said:

Do you we need to bring him back though? We have so many good young outfielders in the minors raring to go. Martin, Williams (Kirilloff to OF), Larnach, Stevenson, Prato, Kiersey, and Camargo are all ready to go or almost ready. We can trade him and get some good value now. 

Right, why not then ,just dump the whole current Twins team and replace them with the current Saints, Good Grief.

[Rick Blaine]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I agree he's not a good 2nd baseman, but I think he would be even worse at 1st because he'd handle the ball so much more. You'd add another x number of ground balls not turned into outs.

If he's actually this hitter then I'd live with his defense at 2nd. 

But that's just like, my opinion, man.

The Chief Abides.  

[rv78]

My feeling on Kepler is... if this FO is willing to give a washed up Gallo $11M they will give an inconsistant Kepler $10M. 

[dxpavelka]

Sure, why not let him go.  We've never made a move like and had any reason to regret it.

[Althebum82]

Aaaaaannnnd right on cue, note that Kepler has been kept out of tonight's line-up due to being hit by a pitch on his foot in Monday's game........after supposedly being ruled "just fine" earlier in the day.

Hopefully, not a reprise of his 2022 2nd half toe injury for which he had surgery......

Even if it is, I still think that the general consensus opinion of "yes" to the option signing will still continue to be accurate.

[Schmoeman5]

47 minutes ago, Althebum82 said:

Aaaaaannnnd right on cue, note that Kepler has been kept out of tonight's line-up due to being hit by a pitch on his foot in Monday's game........after supposedly being ruled "just fine" earlier in the day.

Hopefully, not a reprise of his 2022 2nd half toe injury for which he had surgery......

Even if it is, I still think that the general consensus opinion of "yes" to the option signing will still continue to be accurate.

Facing a tough lefty and no need for him possibly do more damage. It was a good decision to give him a day off.

[DJL44]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He missed a waste high throw from the catcher on a steal play at 2B about 3 days ago. Completely missed the ball - decent throw - looked like a fool. I like Julien, but he has no intuitive feel on the defensive side.

He needs to get to Winter ball somewhere after season ends and he needs to work on his skills at 2B!!!

He's probably a lost cause then. There is too much to work on to master 2B when you can't catch a thrown ball yet.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, clone52 said:

1.  I disagree completely with this one.  There is no chance the Twins trade Buxton.  He has a no trade clause, he specifically wants to be in Minnesota and he has low value right now.

2.  Buxton's status has no impact on Kepler.  For whatever reason, Kepler isn't playing CF. 

3.  I'd be okay with getting rid of Polanco, although my preference would be to keep him.  They have depth with Julien, Lewis, Correa and probably Lee, but thats about it.  I'd rather keep Polanco than Farmer.  Polanco or Kepler could be a decision, though.

Farmer is signed for ‘24. Lee will be on the club at some point in ‘24.

Castro will still be on the club……part time player w/o a steal through most of April…..30 steals out of 34 tries on August 8. Position flexibility!!

My assumption is that whichever plays well through playoffs will get his option excercised.  Kepler seems to have a leg up on Polanco now because of the lean toward Julien &/or Lee at 2B in future and Polanco’s inability to stay on the field. Gotta be available!

If he holds together - it’s Max in right in ‘24.

[saviking]

23 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I like Max.  But - his inconsistency makes me uninterested in bringing him back when we have alternatives who are cheaper, and have at least as high of floor as he has waiting in the wings.

However, I agree with the article - with this FO history of keeping vets longer than they should, I fear they will pick that option up.  I felt that even before he started hitting recently, and I think this only confirms that fear.  I still hope they can pick it up and trade him allowing us to use that $10M elsewhere.

I agree. 40 game streak is a small sample size. Let's see where he ends up, but if Kepler stays hot, maybe we can get something for him this off-season; along with Polanco I'm ready for a full-on youth movement. You've got a guy like Severino that I'm assuming we will lose unless he stays on the 40-man roster. And then there is Prato and potentially Lee an Martin ready next year. Going with the youngsters will also help to offset the 40 million sunk in Buxton and Correa so we have money to spend.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

18 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

You  make a subtle comment about where he plays in the OF - I think his unwillingness to play CF is detrimental to the team.  If he's going to make $10M next year with us- He needs to be willing to play where we need him to play.

Is it his unwillingness or the team's?  Are there other factors at play?  Don't automatically assume he is the problem in this...