The Twins Won’t Exercise Max Kepler’s Option…Will They?

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Same post for Polanco, when that article comes out remember me fondly. 

Off topic, but as of today I'd make it 80-20 against Polanco being a 2024 MN Twin. 

Unlike the OF, they actually do have a glut of infield options by next year. I think they'll live with Julien's defense, with Lee in the wings and Farmer on the bench as insurance.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 minute ago, aberamsey said:

This is a giant leap of faith. The idea that "any" of the players you listed are "likely" to be better than Kepler, in

the long run, is a pretty bold statement. Lewis perhaps, but is he an outfielder? Martin? Come on, at this point, it's impossible to predict if he will even be a big leaguer. Rodriquez, perhaps, but definitely not next season. We have to remember that the object is to put the best team on the field, within the financial constraints that the organization sets. Kepler has a reasonable option. He is most likely not blocking Wallner next year. The object is to put the best team on the field and win games, not find out whether or not guys can play. 

Sorry.  I may not have written that very clearly.  I didn’t mean all of them would likely be better.  That would indeed be a little optimistic.  I meant that among that group of players at least one would likely be better (and I would actually argue maybe a couple).  

I agree that the object is to put the best team on the field and win games, but I also think it is important to keep an eye on the future and what new players bring to the table.  This enables the team to maximize the value they get out of the players under their control and possibly move on from or trade the players that can be replaced.  Keeping Kepler in place next year (and Gallo this year) doesn’t let the team do that. 

[Rosterman]

At this moment, Kirillof and Larnach have NOT gauranteed themselves as longterm answers to the Twins, and maybe NOT even shot-term answers as we wait for players like Rodriguez, maybe Martin, and others to move up in the system.

Question #1. DO the wins need the 40-man roster spot. Probably not.

Question #2: Do they have the payroll flexibility to keep him on the roster (as well as Polanco) for the amount needed.

My answer to both is - YES!

Yet, yet...I really don't think there was a lot of interest in Kepler in the off-season, and Polanco being hurt also hurt the infielder's chances of being traded. Do you gamble that you could still make BOTH available in the off-season at a decent salary for a 30-year-old player? Or, by extension, that either will start and find playing time in 2024 and actually increase value enough to be a mid-season tradechip? 

Or, easier to just make them the problem of someone else?

Have to do a hard review of where everyone is in the Twins system, how the team can react to the high salaries being paid for modest production from the oft-injured Buxton and "face-of-the-team" Correa. 

[Jocko87]

Just now, USAFChief said:

Off topic, but as of today I'd make it 80-20 against Polanco being a 2024 MN Twin. 

Unlike the OF, they actually do have a glut of infield options by next year.

But that's a different discussion than exercising the option.  The options are a large part of the value they bring for a trade.

[MMMordabito]

[chpettit19]

I think it's a 99% chance they pick up his option. They believe in Max, and his current hot streak has confirmed their beliefs. They're not dumping him for nothing. Will he be with the Twins in 2024? That likely depends on their belief in Larnach, and what kind of trade offers they receive for both over the winter. I'd put it at 80/20 that he's standing in RF wearing a Twins uniform on opening day 2024.

[Parfigliano]

They will keep Kepler.  I hope they dont extend him.

[LA Vikes Fan]

35 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Off topic, but as of today I'd make it 80-20 against Polanco being a 2024 MN Twin. 

Unlike the OF, they actually do have a glut of infield options by next year. I think they'll live with Julien's defense, with Lee in the wings and Farmer on the bench as insurance.

I agree that Polanco is the tougher call. He's still cheap - I think his 2024 salary  is set at 5.15m. IF, and it's a big IF, he performs over the rest of the season like his career average of a little worse - say .265/.325/.425 with a solid to good glove- it's hard to replace that production for $5m. He's also a team leader and has been a clutch hitter. 

So where do you play him? I agree that in 2024 Julien will be the 2B, with Kirilloff at 1B and Lewis at 3B. Could Jorge learn 1B and the three of them basically share those 4 spots with some DH appearances if Buxton can actually play in the OF?  That way one of those 4 is on the bench most games with Castro, Taylor or some other backup CF, and a catcher.  Could Polanco learn to play LF? I think he could but given his leg issues, I'm not sure the OF is the best choice. If he could, solve the search for a RH hitting OF but now you take ABs away from Wallner unless Kepler sits against most LH pitching.  Still, I think they will keep Polanco for at least one more year and work him out at 1B as insurance against injury or performance issues from Julien, Lewis and/or Kirilloff. 

Again, the issue is we really don't have any one else knocking down the door for a spot at the start of 2024. Lee is more likely a June callup if he performs at AAA. By then all kinds of things could happen that would make having Polanco a very good thing. 

[lukeduke1980]

I agree it's looking like too many health related OF question marks to not strongly consider Max's option.  Good for Max, credit to David Popkins as well? 

[Brandon]

For me, I would like to see the international class of 2009 (Kepler, Polanco and Sano) combine to reach over 500 HRs for the Twins.  (Was hoping they could reach 1000 for the Twins….. but Sano…..). They currently have Kepler at 147, Polanco at 104 and Sano stuck at 161.  For a total of 412.  500 is a nice goal and maybe they will reach it.  But there is marketing in this as they climb higher….

also on Kepler, he had an .800 OPS till he got hurt last year and this year since he got healthy he has been mashing. If he is healthy at the end of the year, I say pick up his option and if you can extend him sure why not.

[clone52]

3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

I like Max.  But - his inconsistency makes me uninterested in bringing him back when we have alternatives who are cheaper, and have at least as high of floor as he has waiting in the wings.

However, I agree with the article - with this FO history of keeping vets longer than they should, I fear they will pick that option up.  I felt that even before he started hitting recently, and I think this only confirms that fear.  I still hope they can pick it up and trade him allowing us to use that $10M elsewhere.

I'm not sure we have a lot of alternatives who are cheaper and have at least as high a floor as Max.  I certainly wouldn't put Larnach on that list.

If you include Kiriloff and Lewis on the list, then sure, they do, but that means they need to fill 1B.

I think you go with this as your starters next year.

DH - Julien

1B - Kiriloff

2B - Polanco

3B - Lewis

SS - Correa

LF - Wallner

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

Bench - Vasquez, Larnach, Castro, Taylor

If something happens and its decided that Buxton can never play the field again, then you adjust and probably don't need Kepler.  But as it stands, I think you keep him and stick with the depth you have.  Otherwise with an injury or 2 (which we always have), you're going to have Nick Gordon or Austin Martin getting significant corner OF playing time.

[clone52]

3 hours ago, IA Bean Counter said:

I would think they would trade Kepler for excess value, and then hope Larnach can begin to figure it out.  Wallner seems to be locking in the LF position, but we have seen sophmore slumps before.   Center and RF would be question marks.    For me this comes down to 3 decisions the Twins will need to make.  

1. Buxton - do you keep him or trade him.   With his contract and previous performance this is still an excess value proposition but if he has another poor year the value begins to degrade fairly rapidly.  If they want out of the contract and move in a different direction this offseason will be the time.  

2. Kepler - if you trade Buxton most likely I think you would keep Kepler for stability for 1 more year and see what happens in CF and that Wallner continues to perform.  

3. Polanco- I would think the Twins would not pick up the contract, as the depth in the infield is stacked and I don't see a proposition of being able to then trade him for excess value unless he has a bananas end of the season and post season similar to an Eddie Rosario with the Braves.  

1.  I disagree completely with this one.  There is no chance the Twins trade Buxton.  He has a no trade clause, he specifically wants to be in Minnesota and he has low value right now.

2.  Buxton's status has no impact on Kepler.  For whatever reason, Kepler isn't playing CF. 

3.  I'd be okay with getting rid of Polanco, although my preference would be to keep him.  They have depth with Julien, Lewis, Correa and probably Lee, but thats about it.  I'd rather keep Polanco than Farmer.  Polanco or Kepler could be a decision, though.

[tony&rodney]

Kepler has a $10 M option for next season and Polanco has a $10.5 M option for 2024. Both are club options with $1 M buyouts. Kepler is a free agent in 2025 and Polanco still has another option (club) for $12 M in 2025.

I would guess 95-5% that Kepler is in a Twins uniform next season. The outfield situation is pretty fluid this year and may be similar in 2024. A healthy Polanco has great value for the Twins or any other team for that matter. I expect him to return as well unless his health deteriorates from today going forward. Buxton and Correa are not going anywhere.

Seattle still needs a good bat and pitching is always good to acquire. I see benefits for both the Twins and the Mariners in an exchange of players this offseason. A trade of an infielder (1B or 2B) could mean that Polanco is a definite option to pick up. I do not know what Seattle thinks about Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien, Lee, or Lewis. Any one of those guys might headline a deal for Logan Gilbert that winds up helping both teams. In that scenario, both Kepler and Polanco (unless disabled) are locks to be back next season. 

Until the offseason, we can only hope that good health allows both Kepler and Polanco to get steady at bats to lead the Twins through the remainder of the year. Neither is old and we have ample evidence of how important their skills are to a winning season.

[jkcarew]

wRC+ of 143 since June 9…that’s 2 months of being one of the better all-around corner outfielders in the league.

And around wRC+ 108 for the year…something even good teams can live with.

Wouldn’t shock me if they try to find a legit right-handed OF bat in the offseason…but it doesn’t appear that it would be that high on the priority list the way things are playing out after the deadline.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think it's a 99% chance they pick up his option. They believe in Max, and his current hot streak has confirmed their beliefs. They're not dumping him for nothing. Will he be with the Twins in 2024? That likely depends on their belief in Larnach, and what kind of trade offers they receive for both over the winter. I'd put it at 80/20 that he's standing in RF wearing a Twins uniform on opening day 2024.

Agreed. He'll be the starting RF next year, assuming he's healthy the rest of this year. Wallner in left. No idea who plays center. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. He'll be the starting RF next year, assuming he's healthy the rest of this year. Wallner in left. No idea who plays center. 

If Kiriloff could stay healthy, this would be a different discussion, I think. Then more like sixty percent Max is back. 

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Rosterman said:

At this moment, Kirillof and Larnach have NOT gauranteed themselves as longterm answers to the Twins, and maybe NOT even shot-term answers as we wait for players like Rodriguez, maybe Martin, and others to move up in the system.

I think Kirilloff is at least written in the plans in pencil. His performance this season has been shortened by injury, but he has shown he is a good hitter. His current injury is completely unrelated to the career-threatening wrist miseries that ended his 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Kirilloff is at least written in the plans in pencil. His performance this season has been shortened by injury, but he has shown he is a good hitter. His current injury is completely unrelated to the career-threatening wrist miseries that ended his 2021 and 2022 seasons. 

I'd agree but he's written in at 1st base IMO. 

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Off topic, but as of today I'd make it 80-20 against Polanco being a 2024 MN Twin. 

Unlike the OF, they actually do have a glut of infield options by next year. I think they'll live with Julien's defense, with Lee in the wings and Farmer on the bench as insurance.

I've speculated that there's a pretty good chance that the Twins would pick up the option for Polanco and then trade him. He's a better-than-average second baseman, but his recent injuries have to have decreased his value. I don't think the Twins get more than a prospect or relief pitcher for him. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I've speculated that there's a pretty good chance that the Twins would pick up the option for Polanco and then trade him. He's a better-than-average second baseman, but his recent injuries have to have decreased his value. I don't think the Twins get more than a prospect or relief pitcher for him. 

Possible for sure. 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd agree but he's written in at 1st base IMO. 

I think that''s AK's best position, but if they have to put a guy with a suspect glove at first (Julien, Miranda, Severino, Prato), Kirilloff would be acceptable in an outfield corner.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So, with respect to Gallo, are you implying that the ‘ol “Sooo, you’re telling me I still have a chance” is still on the table?  I’d assume Jim Carey had a better chance…but, hey, maybe you’re right - who knows with this FO.

Somebody is gonna give Gallo a contract.  Could be a low guarantee, could be minor league invite. He is not the worst choice as a Nick Punto type super-sub.  That being said, I am highly doubtful it will be Minnesota.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I've speculated that there's a pretty good chance that the Twins would pick up the option for Polanco and then trade him. He's a better-than-average second baseman, but his recent injuries have to have decreased his value. I don't think the Twins get more than a prospect or relief pitcher for him. 

It's unlikely that prospect is worth 9 million at this point. I can't see him on this roster next year without huge success the rest of the year. That said, they do love their veterans. 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think that''s AK's best position, but if they have to put a guy with a suspect glove at first (Julien, Miranda, Severino, Prato), Kirilloff would be acceptable in an outfield corner.

I just don't see Julien at 1st. Stone hands there is worse than at 2nd. A 1st baseman doesn't have to be mobile, but needs to have a soft glove. That ain't Julien. 

None of the rest are threats to open 2024 penciled into the lineup. 

My guess is it's Kirilloff's position to lose.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I just don't see Julien at 1st. Stone hands there is worse than at 2nd. A 1st baseman doesn't have to be mobile, but needs to have a soft glove. That ain't Julien. 

None of the rest are threats to open 2024 penciled into the lineup. 

My guess is it's Kirilloff's position to lose.

I agree. 

[Jim wyllie]

I would exercise both Kepler and Polanco options and if it comes down to it they can be traded.  

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Jim wyllie said:

I would exercise both Kepler and Polanco options and if it comes down to it they can be traded.  

If you exercise the option, you need to find someone willing to take on that salary in order to trade.

"If it comes down to it" implies they're not playing well, in which case, good luck. $10m isn't easy for any team to absorb. Even big market teams.

[jmlease1]

Just now, USAFChief said:

If you exercise the option, you need to find someone willing to take on that salary in order to trade.

 

I think both contracts are pretty tradable, and if you have to you can always eat a little of the remaining cash if that's the barrier to getting the prospect you want. (despite the "cheap Pohlads" narrative, they've done it in the past)

Part of this gets easier with Gallo not being in the picture next season. It'll be a really interesting question to see if Larnach is in the twins plans or not; I think he's out of options next year?

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I think both contracts are pretty tradable, and if you have to you can always eat a little of the remaining cash if that's the barrier to getting the prospect you want. (despite the "cheap Pohlads" narrative, they've done it in the past)

Part of this gets easier with Gallo not being in the picture next season. It'll be a really interesting question to see if Larnach is in the twins plans or not; I think he's out of options next year?

They're tradeable if playing well, but then you're likely not trading them.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Unless he falls back into the black hole he was in earlier this year I think they pick up the option. The only other thing that could make them let him go is if the Pohlads hold or cut payroll next year and they cant fit him in.

Mahle - Maeda - Gray - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano………That’s near $70 million gone from $153 in ‘23.

Castro is cheap - Farmer is signed. Vazquez - CC - Buxton all sunk money, can’t change.

Kepler’s gotta perform but he sure does seem to have found something. He’s hitting the ball hard on fly outs. Had been popping up to SS & hitting rollers to the right side for most of 3 months! Seems to have a purpose to punish the ball……that was lacking.

I think they sign him or Polanco. Polanco can’t stay healthy and he’s not tearing it up. Whoever plays well through the playoffs will have a great chance of getting re-upped

They almost have to re-sign Maeda & Solano - that’s maybe $15M & then Kepler for $10M…..    that still leaves $45M to spread to pitchers (early sign Ober)……..Ryan needs to rebound when healthy to consider him. Duran & Jax deserve offers and it gets them security and keeps price down for Twins.