The Twins Won’t Exercise Max Kepler’s Option…Will They?

[LA Vikes Fan]

16 hours ago, Hashim said:

Do you we need to bring him back though? We have so many good young outfielders in the minors raring to go. Martin, Williams (Kirilloff to OF), Larnach, Stevenson, Prato, Kiersey, and Camargo are all ready to go or almost ready. We can trade him and get some good value now. 

Really?! I would be shocked if there is even 1 solid MLB starter for 2024 in that group and if there is, it's probably Larnach or maybe Prato. We're talking about a 1 year option for Kepler so the real question is which of those guys will be a solid starter in 2024, not beyond. Stevenson is almost 30 and previously failed with the Nats, Kiersey is 26 and just got to AAA (where he isn't hitting), Williams is now hitting at age 26 but has an over 33% SO rate in AAA, and Camargo is a catcher with an over 33% SO rate in AAA.  Laranch has been spotty in previous tries and regularly injured, and Prato just got to AAA. If the question is do we keep Kepler in 2025, maybe one of these guys can be the replacement if they show well in 2024 during the inevitable call ups for injuries like Julien has or as a bench OF. For 2024, no way would I put trust in the idea that one of them will be a starting caliber MLB OF for a full season. And if they aren't, much as it pains me to write this, you gotta keep Kepler if the goal is to contend. 

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, saviking said:

I agree. 40 game streak is a small sample size. Let's see where he ends up, but if Kepler stays hot, maybe we can get something for him this off-season; along with Polanco I'm ready for a full-on youth movement. You've got a guy like Severino that I'm assuming we will lose unless he stays on the 40-man roster. And then there is Prato and potentially Lee a Martin ready next year. Going with the youngsters will also help to offset the 40 million sunk in Buxton and Correa so we have money to spend.

Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23.

Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money!

‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.

[joefish]

This would be easier for me if Kepler's first half more closely resembled the start of this second half. 

I was ready to part ways with him.  Now we are seeing him hit the ball again. And we need that, along with his defense. 

[saviking]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23.

Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money!

‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.

Good analysis. I agree with Maeda if we can sign him for 11 mill. I think he's still got gas in the tank. Kepler I'm fifty/fifty on. I agree his salary is reasonable. I just don't see how we can keep Salano and have enough room for our young infielders. Especially come mid-season

I sincerely think these young guys are good enough, and have the character to thrive without many veterans. They can feed off each other as many have grown up in the farm system together. Correa's best asset is his leadership, so I think he can carry the load along with Buxton. Our I don't think we have ever had this many quality rookies since the very early 1990s. And I think their plate discipline is superior to the current longer-term major leaguers we have now. 

But yes, it sounds like we both expect the changing or the guard is upon us and it's great for salary cap relief.

[IndianaTwin]

1. Ignore Polanco and Kepler for now and go with me here.
2. Solano, Taylor and Gallo are free agents. In theory, they can be brought back, but I don't think any are likely, particularly not before decisions are made on Kepler and Polanco. If Solano only got $2M this year as a 35-year-old, he's going to be hard-pressed to get an MLB deal. I'd gladly take him on a minor league deal. Taylor may be a step above that.
3. Vazquez and Jeffers occupy two roster spots and are the catcher.
4. Correa is the starting SS.
5. Buxton has a big contract and a no-trade contract. If he was guaranteed to be healthy, I'd list him in No. 4 with Correa.
6. With their flexibility and manageable expectations, Farmer and Castro will be tendered contracts. That is six roster spots filled. Gordon has played so little this year that he's clearly a non-tender candidate, so I'm going to put him in the list below.

So that's six "veterans" on the team -- Vazquez, Jeffers, Correa, Buxton, Farmer and Castro, though I think they would hope that Farmer and Castro are not playing every day. It's really three "starters" -- the catcher, Correa and Buxton (hopefully). 

Now look at this list of remaining names -- Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda, Larnach and any prospect you would like to name (notably Martin and Lee). What do they have in common? At least two things.

1. Talent.
2. Less than a year of proven MLB experience. 

No way do the Twins start the season with only six veterans (only three as "full-time" starters, and one of those injury-prone) and that much inexperience.

With any semblance of productivity the rest of the way, Kepler is back. Similarly, I think there's a good likelihood on Polanco, at least in part because he also has an affordable option for 2025 that could be exercised if he's productive next year. The alternative is to get a couple of free agents, but it's their approach to go with the devil you know over the one you don't.  

[Hashim]

On 8/8/2023 at 7:18 PM, RpR said:

Right, why not then ,just dump the whole current Twins team and replace them with the current Saints, Good Grief.

Straw man, nobody said what you’re saying. 

[Hashim]

9 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Really?! I would be shocked if there is even 1 solid MLB starter for 2024 in that group and if there is, it's probably Larnach or maybe Prato. We're talking about a 1 year option for Kepler so the real question is which of those guys will be a solid starter in 2024, not beyond. Stevenson is almost 30 and previously failed with the Nats, Kiersey is 26 and just got to AAA (where he isn't hitting), Williams is now hitting at age 26 but has an over 33% SO rate in AAA, and Camargo is a catcher with an over 33% SO rate in AAA.  Laranch has been spotty in previous tries and regularly injured, and Prato just got to AAA. If the question is do we keep Kepler in 2025, maybe one of these guys can be the replacement if they show well in 2024 during the inevitable call ups for injuries like Julien has or as a bench OF. For 2024, no way would I put trust in the idea that one of them will be a starting caliber MLB OF for a full season. And if they aren't, much as it pains me to write this, you gotta keep Kepler if the goal is to contend. 

You make some good points. You don’t know what you have with Larnach and others if you don’t give them a chance. I would save the $10 million and use that money towards a bonafide ace or all-star hitter. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Hashim said:

Straw man, nobody said what you’re saying. 

No kidding, really!👺

[SwainZag]

8 hours ago, joefish said:

This would be easier for me if Kepler's first half more closely resembled the start of this second half. 

I was ready to part ways with him.  Now we are seeing him hit the ball again. And we need that, along with his defense. 

Well obviously.  His OPS since the the 2nd half started is .958, if he hit like that all year long it would be 3rd in the AL only behind Ohtani and Seager.

We will see how he finishes out the season, but his swing does look shorter, and he is hitting the ball hard.  His barrell %, exit velocity, and XSLG are all career highs right now.....and that includes the awful first half of games he played this season.

1st 46 games, 165 PA: .189/.261/.365  .626 OPS

Last 41 games, 151 PA: .290/.344/.573  .917 OPS

A full season of the recent Kepler makes him a top 10 corner OF in baseball.  Now is Max that good?  Probably not, but he does look like he could give you a .800 OPS+ year, which is a for sure yes on picking up that option.