JYTwinsFan

I like the idea of adding Eflin or Eovaldi due to their general consistency & experience and they are the most realistic targets discussed. And those of us who watch Ober know he's not a shutdown guy. But are we not giving him enough credit? Help me understand why Eflin and Eovaldi surpass the Ober threshold ("better than Bailey Ober" per the article)? ERA / FIP / Kper9 / WHIP Ober: 4.14 / 3.94 / 9.5 / 1.08 Eflin: 3.99 / 3.96 / 7.1 / 1.11 Eovaldi: 3.10 / 3.74 / 8.8. / 1.03 I see these guys as significantly helping the playoff run and attempt to push past the Guardians. But once we're in the playoffs they seem like tossups with Ober for who gets a playoff start based mostly on matchups and who is hot. I raise this because they Twins should not overpay for these two based on the idea it will improve playoff odds for a Game 3 at an individual pitcher level. Overall they'd provide depth during the lead up and potential options going into playoffs, which has value and can increase odds overall, I suppose. Am I missing something?

Reading a lot of the comments on this trade, I'm a little surprised by the reaction. A lot of people are overthinking this and reading too much into it. 1) The Twins just signed a right handed 4th outfielder for $4mm. That was gonna happen one way or the other. None of the signings were going to be exciting, All of the options were gonna be in that range if the Twins were to get them. The upside here is that he can play center, which not all of the options out there could, he is controllable in 2025 if they want him, and zero cost if they don't, and he's 29, significantly younger most of the other options. So...plus. 2) They traded a mid 20s ranked prospect for a different kind of mid 20s ranked prospect. Both are young enough and unproven enough that anything could happen. The upside here is that he fits the organizational need better and he's younger so his rep is less set in stone whereas Miller's is starting to develop (all glove, no bat). So...plus. Ready to move on and play ball.

I get the initial reactions to this trade, but it's pretty clear now that DeSclafani is essentially the throw in piece of the deal, not anywhere close to their target in the trade. The Twins are getting a depth starter for free basically (2mil according to MLB Trade Rumors) and overall they save some money which can then be reapplied to an actual starting pitch target or other hole to fill. So it's basically: Mariners are gonna pay Polanco essentially his $10mil + DeScalfani's $4mil - fair cost for Polanco's value Twins are gonna pay $2mil on top of the cost of whoever they get with the savings + a throw in depth starting pitcher as a flier, but let's assume he gets traded or cut + a good reliever + a top 100 prospect + a low A pitcher wild card. Once you get past the fact that DeScalfani's a throw in, kinda hard to argue with this trade. Though it will be best evaluated when we know how they deploy the savings.

I've been fascinated by the Severino story over the last couple years cause his stats were on the rise, but he was nowhere to be found on prospect lists despite being highly rated as a teenager and still being under 25yrs old. He's always reminded me of Edwin Encarnacion. Similar body type, defensive profile, whip-like swing that generates a lot of power from his hips, kinda labored gait around the bases on his home run trot. One can hope Severino could turn into as productive a player as Encarnacion was. Big difference I suppose is EE had good plate discipline.

Yea I debated that justification as well. What I came to, and perhaps flawed, was that I had a hard time wanting to give $25mil to any of the free agents as they felt like overpays based on a thin market, whereas, Castillo felt appropriate if not exciting. I would imagine on the open market he would now be worth $30mil+. But to your point...to trade value and take on $25mil in salary is a heavy price. So it only works if you really believe in Castillo's longevity over the next few years, and you believe he is essentially a better than Gray or even Lopez Ace during that time.

Appreciate that!

• Big trade with the Mariners sending Polanco, Thielbar, Winder, and Larnach to the M's in return for Emerson Hancock, Prelander Berroa, and Tyler Locklear (Baseball Trade Values says this is a slight overpay by the Twins, but basically even). Mariners dealing SP and RP from depth while giving up a good prospect in return for 4 MLB ready players three of which are controllable for multiple years. Solves their second base and OF gaps. Hoping the core of it works, but perhaps some adjustments on the margins? • Non-tendering Farmer or trading him. Essentially his 6mil goes to Pagan (or similar) relief pitcher at $6mil. • I'm feeling good about Alcala, Canterino, Berroa and Funderburk as BP arms right out of the gate all with wipe out stuff, but I know I have less exciting depth options to cycle in as well (Moran, Headrick, Henriquez, etc.). • Hancock is my Gray replacement, at league minimum and controllable for multiple years. That's 4 controllable arms in the rotation over the next 3- 5 years. Varland starts in AAA but is the first man up in the rotation if needed. If he's stalling out as a SP in AAA, I'm converting him a reliever and he's immediately in the Twins bullpen. Festa isn't far behind, and then I've got SWR Festa, and Headrick to spot start if needed. Lewis and Raya in AA pushing with good seasons would be a nice problem to have. • I've signed Hoskins to play DH and platoon with Kiriloff as needed at 1B. Big right handed power in the middle of the lineup for a couple years. Buxton is in CF or DH, but I've also signed Kiermaier. So we've got optimal mixing and matching with a right and left hander at both spots if everyone is healthy. And waiting in the wings is Miranda in AAA who is proving he's back to normal and pushing for a callup at first sign of injury at 1B / DH. • I'm giving a utility spots to Castro and Martin. Tons of position flexibility with both as well as speed. If Martin proves to be an on base machine we start finding ways to get him in the lineup every day. First sign of infield injury to Julien, Correa, or Lewis, then Brooks Lee gets the callup. • I like the catcher duo and don't mess with it. We'll have an injury at some point and Camargo is up and we don't skip a beat. • We come in right at 135mil. At the July trade deadline if no one has emerged as a #2 playoff starter, we seek one out and pull the trigger with some of our prospect or controllable MLB depth. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($.77M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Rhys Hoskins ($18M) Utility: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Austin Martin ($.77M) 4th OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($11M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Emerson Hancock ($0.77M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Prelander Berroa ($.77M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.77M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($6M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 1.99% under budget

I've been wondering if Luis Castillo might actually be an available and worthwhile target. Given Seattle's young pitching depth and reported interest in Ohtani, would they value a Castillo trade that could free up salary and plug some other holes on the field? I don't know much about the dynamic in Seattle, nor Castillo's prospects for continued success into his mid 30s, so maybe not realistic, but crossed my mind.

I haven't read every comment here yet, so forgive me if this sentiment has been stated already. Like most I'm not thrilled to see payroll go down, they have a real chance to build a knockout punch with even modest additions. But I'm also not seeing it as dire for the same reason. The real problem as I see it, is that the FO has constructed a world class spine to this team of superstars at at least four (or five) of the most valuable/critical positions: Buxton in Center, Correa at Short, Lopez an ace on the mound, Jeffers emergence as a top tier catcher, and Duran as a shut down closer...but the most established superstars of that group who need to play most regularly are not contributing like superstars. If they were, we'd be talking about how the Twins can best overpay this offseason for some high octane reliever or other nice-to-haves. We'd be less worried about replacing Gray w/ Giolito or even Maeda because our offense would be top shelf. On paper they have exactly what they need and no free agent or trade candidate necessarily represents any added guarantee of performance better than what Correa or Buxton are capable of. This year's FA class in particular is weak or risky beyond Ohtani. But their plan for 2024 seems to be echoing their plan for the second half of 2023. We have the pieces, we have the superstars, we have balance, we have flexibility, we have long term control, we have MLB ready prospect depth, and we can deploy our strategy in game...but the players have to be on the field and execute. So our focus is on that. They do need to replace Gray in some form and should have the payroll options to do that to an acceptable degree. And I'm reasonably confident they have enough trade bait to improve the roster in some key spots without mortgaging the future, but neither of those offseason boxes to check will alleviate the fact that they seem to be stuck with (or stubbornly sticking to) relying on their superstars to make good on the investment they made. It's hard to argue with that. It's also painful to watch when it doesn't work.

Curious to hear Twins Daily's POV or anyone from the general forum on the best tool for assessing trade values. Want to make sure as I play around, I use the methodology with the most consensus, or at least caveat where I need to if I'm using values that carry some risk of accuracy in the real world.

This was a great show. Perfect setup for the content and he's a fantastic guest who communicates very thoroughly and plainly. Make this a regular thing!

Yea I'm assuming they will pitch their best available starter. So hopefully it does come down to the last two days and they blow through their top starters and bullpens. Good news is that all 4 teams in the final weekend series could all be playing for something significant: Texas vs Seattle & Houston vs. Arizona.

An interesting thing to watch will be if the AL West comes down to the last game or two, will any of the teams feel compelled to throw their best starter at it just to get into the playoffs, and thus taking them out of starting game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Twins. For example, Houston has Verlander and Seattle has Castillo lined up to pitch Monday and Saturday, so they'd be out for Tuesday. Houston also has Valdez lined up to pitch Wednesday and then Tuesday (Game 1) but if it's win or go home on their final game Sunday, would they pitch Valdez on 4 days rest (and take him out for Game 1 of Wild Card series).

Ted, since you set up that his issue was launch angle, it would be great to understand how Kepler has achieved this success since June. It seems the key factor in whether to pick up the option is not the stats, but whether the changes he's made are sustainable. It seems to me that if there's a hint of it being sustainable, it is worth picking up the option: a) you're just not going to find much better out there for that price, b) you can always trade Kepler after picking up the option, c) a motivated Kepler to repeat this success in 2024 given it will be another "contract year" at a prime 31 years old, is probably a worthwhile bet, d) trading a controllable and younger w/ potential Larnach probably has a lot more value to convert into a longer term piece elsewhere on the diamond. On another note...I felt this since spring training, but Kepler looks physically bigger to me. Has there been any reporting on him putting on weight/muscle?

I agree. If he's hurt, then this is really bad managing because his output doesn't justify him being out there hurt. Secondly, he just looks absolutely lost. It's nearing a repeat of Sano-level lost. Chases everything. Can't hit fastballs down the middle. Constantly pitch guessing (incorrectly) on third strikes instead of reacting. He has some of the fastest hands in baseball. He should be able to react at an above average rate. I feel for him. I love him as a player and a human. I want him to figure it out for his benefit and ours. I won't stop rooting for him. But batting him 2-4 consistently and occupying the DH spot is inane at this stage in the season and given what is at stake. On the flip side I do NOT think he should play center (unless that does magically unlock his hitting ability). Save him for the playoff run, then stick him in center for Oct. But make adjustments to the lineup now to get to the playoff run...obviously :)