What the Heck Is Going On with Zebby Matthews?

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

Feels pretty simple, get velo back & he's fine, velo doesn't return & he's cooked

5 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

His contact rate going up in AAA does not bode well for his future as a starter.

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

On 4/16/2026 at 11:41 AM, FlyingFinn said:

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

In 25 he threw his change/curve/sinker 21% of the time in MLB and 12% in AAA.  It is currently at 35% at AAA.  His change is now called a splitter so it may be a different pitch, and it is currently getting 3 inches more armside movement then his change was.  Curveball is 4mph slower and is moved to being more of a horizontal pitch, while last year it was mostly vertical movement.  The curve is missing more bats, while the splitter seems about the same

Not all good news though, the fastball whiff rate went from 24% in AAA to 10%, slider from 40% to 32%.  Really needs to get the velo back to where it was.

Its a speed bump in his career. He will be fine. Might be due to a nagging injury or disappointment of not making the MLB ODR. He has plenty of good baseball in him.

Here is the thing: Zebby hasn’t been good in the big leagues so this idea that he had a straightforward path to the Twins rotation is silly. I hope he figures it out and can contribute to the the Twins in the rotation or the pen but that is clearly no sure thing. I think this is a classic example of hopes getting way ahead of actual performance. The hardest jump is the last one from AAA to the bigs. 

Have said day one he needs to be in bullpen. His stuff isn't built for being a starter. He's shown that over and over. 

Simple... he's just not that good

17 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

Which would not be an awful outcome. 

36 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He was already throwing 6 pitches coming into the year………adding another pitch?

Improving another pitch, not adding to pitches he's capable of throwing. He really doesn't use 6 pitches when in the majors, at least not all in any kind of frequency that I recall. Zebby needs to add to his quality pitches that he can throw in the majors. If not, he is surely heading to the bullpen. As @Bangkok Twins Fan said above, not terrible if he turns into Louie Varland.

8 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He wasn’t “fine” when he had his previous velocity. Pitch mix & LOCATION is what he and every other pitcher needs to master. He doesn’t need to average 96-97 to be effective. His “margin for error” may get a touch bigger with more velocity?

His FIP was a 3.79 last year even if the ERA was looking ugly. now that the velo is gone, his FIP is in the 8's in AAA

This is just a baffling mystery.  I agree with the idea that he doesn't need MORE pitches.  He needs better command of his pitches, and that usually comes down to working on fewer pitches to improve his command of 3 or 4 offerings.

Dasan Hill is lurking.  Moving Zebby to the BP now doesn't need to be permanent.  But it may be needed to narrow his array of pitches into refining 2-3 that he can actually command.  

You're telling me, that this organization notorious for not developing their own starters, has yet again transformed a "once promising" starter into a middle reliever? I for one am shocked!

On 4/16/2026 at 11:35 AM, nicksaviking said:

I had high hopes for Matthews as a starter, but at some point you need to make the switch, and that point is clearly now. 

I disagree that starting pitching depth is needed if this is what the depth looks like. If you're in a pinch and you need a guy in the rotation, Matthews hasn't shown that he can do any better than the guys floating around on the waiver wire.

Relief work is valuable too, and the bullpen needs velocity. He might struggle with the switch right away, but hopefully by next year, he's the next Jax/Duran/Varland.

I would disagree with making a switch now. He has struggled but he's only had 3 starts so far. Pulling the plug on him now would be a mistake. If he's moved to the bullpen in St Paul he will not be throwing enough to hopefully snap himself out of his current funk. 

I would think part of his struggles are a mental thing right now. He was in the majors last year and didn't make the team this year. That could have him doubting his stuff. He should keep working on it in St Paul and if he continues to struggle into June then you either move him to the pen or send him down to AA. It could mentally ruin him or be the motivation he needs to turn it around.

On 4/16/2026 at 12:24 PM, DarrenPS said:

Feels pretty simple, get velo back & he's fine, velo doesn't return & he's cooked

A pitcher doesn't need to throw in the upper 90's to succeed. Hitters can time a pitch, it's more about the location and changing speeds. Just look at Aroldis Chapman in the Boston series. Hitters were looking for the upper 90's to 100 and made them look foolish with an 86 mph slider. 

23 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Really feels like he's on the Louie Varland route at the moment.

I can agree with that, but pulling the plug after 3 starts is foolish. 

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

A pitcher doesn't need to throw in the upper 90's to succeed. Hitters can time a pitch, it's more about the location and changing speeds. Just look at Aroldis Chapman in the Boston series. Hitters were looking for the upper 90's to 100 and made them look foolish with an 86 mph slider. 

Every pitcher is different. Some have wacky arm slots, some how extension to be deceptive, etc. If you are Zebby and you don't have that velo you clearly arn't fooling anyone anymore is his issue. Velo is not end all be all, but for Zebby it seems to be the difference between being quad A or being a major leaguer. I'm not cheering against him, this is just what his performances have shown 

Based on draft position it would be a huge accomplishment if Matthews makes it even as a middle reliever. Lots of wacky comments in this thread like the Twins are botching some great talent, it's silly.