Elite Benchwarmer

I'm excited to see GG play this weekend! I caught a couple games in Wichita last year and GG was a line drive hitting machine. I think he had 3 doubles and 5 hits over the two games. Call up the prospects! (My motivating mantra for this season.)

The parallel isn't perfect, but get these young prospects some big league time = 1981. Next year they can be season-long starters = 1982.

I've fully come around to understand that it's time to bring up all of the top prospects over the next 2-3 months. The current Twinspocalypse has Tristan Gray, Ryan Kreidler, Orlando Arcia, Alex Jackson and James Outman. (Remember when one of Gray/Kreidler/Arcia was the choice for 26th man to start the season?) At least two of these players will start every game. I'm all in on a repeat of 1981!

Arcia has looked the best at the plate during the Spring. At least during this Spring, he's showing as a dead pull hitter. If the Twins are OK with Arcia defense at SS, I think he's the guy. Neither Kreidler and Gray have shown anything at the plate this spring in Fort Myers. I don't think Kreidler can hit enough to justify his defense, although he's the best among this trio.

Spring hope is eternal (for a Twins fan). I'm excited and ready to go with my spring season tickets! My first spring in SW FL since Hurricane Ian.

Quality SP have tremendous value, especially with multiple years of control. I believe the odds of the Twins trading Lopez or Ryan by Aug 3 is around 100%. If they stay healthy and performance is similar to their recent track record, the return should increase over time. Injuries and post-season needs will drive the value higher. I hope the Twins demand young major-league ready talent. (Not expecting that, however.)

A key negative for Wallner vs early Schwarber/Ortiz is K/BB - higher K rate and lower walk rate. This is partly a trade-off for higher slugging. The 2-year age difference is also important to note. I don't think Wallner will be Schwarber or Ortiz, but I believe it's still too early to know where his career lands. Kyle Matt David Schwarber Wallner Ortiz PAs 1274 901 1227 K 369 294 252 K% 29.0% 32.6% 20.5% BB 174 95 143 BB% 13.7% 10.5% 11.7% 2B 36 44 76 HR 72 49 38 AVG 0.228 0.238 0.263 OBP 0.341 0.35 0.354 SLG 0.472 0.501 0.457 OPS 0.813 0.851 0.811 OPS+ 108 133 105

I'm a fan of Wallner, and I hope/expect that he will be a valuable asset for the Twins over the next few years. I believe most players need 1200+ PAs to prove out their MLB talent. Wally is at 900 PAs, so he's still climbing that early career wall. This got me thinking about early stats and career trajectory for a couple other talented lefty sluggers who aren't great defenders. The chart below shows the first 4 years for three players. Wallner is Player B. Player A is active. A & C have both won world series rings. Player C is a former Twin. Wallner certainly compares favorably, but one caveat is that he is 2 years older than Player A & C at the career stage shown by the stats below. Bottom line, my view is that it is still early in Wally's career and has ample room for improvement. Player A Player B Player C PAs 1274 901 1227 K 369 294 252 K% 29.0% 32.6% 20.5% BB 174 95 143 BB% 13.7% 10.5% 11.7% 2B 36 44 76 HR 72 49 38 AVG 0.228 0.238 0.263 OBP 0.341 0.35 0.354 SLG 0.472 0.501 0.457 OPS 0.813 0.851 0.811 OPS+ 108 133 105 Obviously, I had some free time today. (Being retired will do that for you.) I'll share names for Player A & C later today. Any guesses?

At a minimum, the Twins need to sign/trade for 2 BP arms. One RH & one LH. One of these needs to be closer capable. And I don't expect either to be on the level of Duran/Jax. However, an upgrade vs Sands/Topa/Tonkin is essential. The lineup, as proposed, is missing a RH 1st basemen/bench bat. (Wouldn't it be nice if Miranda could find himself. He could fill that missing piece.)

This is my view on the reliever trades. I believe the Twins took advantage of the high prices being paid for bullpen arms. However, the current question is what is the plan for next year? The Twins have a long way to go to put together an average bullpen for 2026. Maybe trading a SP for some bullpen help in the off-season?

Fedko was locked in last night. This photo is just before his RBI single. His uniform is still clean given homers in his first 2 ABs.

Today from Eric Longenhagen @ FanGraphs: Ben Ross, Utilityman, Minnesota Twins (Salt River Rafters) I know his numbers aren’t good, but superutilityman Ben Ross looks good, playing defense all over the field and showing surprising power for a hitter as lithe and skinny as he is. Ross “broke out” in 2023 with 19 bombs at High-A Cedar Rapids, but he struck out in roughly 30% of his 2024 plate appearances and posted a mere 78 wRC+ at Double-A Wichita. Ross struggles with secondary pitch recognition, but he’s very dangerous in the middle-up portions of the zone and his swing is surprisingly short considering how much power he has. He will probably always strike out too much to be an everyday player at a single position, but Ross’ ability to play a competent shortstop and center field (the latter is less certain, but regular season tape from Ross’ time there suggests it’s plausible) could soon make him a better, more impactful role-playing option than Austin Martin has been. Hopefully, with a bit of adjustment/improvement/maturation with his bat, Ross can be a valuable utility player for the Twins!

AK and EJ will probably be in the game by the 7th inning. The Twins are like a mediocre Little League Team - everyone gets to play!

Terrific writing. The league needs to identify and implement the most accurate ball/strike system that doesn't significantly delay the game. Hopefully, the options being tested over the past 3-4 years have provided sufficient data to get this implemented ASAP (meaning 2025).

I hope they keep Max to start the season. If he can deliver anything close to his 2023 2nd half, he will either help lead the Twins to winning the division or his value will be higher in July than it is in February. I also hope to see a Wallner, Buxton, Kepler outfield for a 100 games or so.