What Can Twins Expect From Alex Kirilloff?

[Ted Schwerzler]

For the first time in 2023, Alex Kirilloff looks like he’ll take the field for the Minnesota Twins. He didn’t appear during spring training, and obviously that meant he wouldn’t break camp with the big league club either. Now on a rehab assignment, he appears to be trending towards a return. What can we expect?

 

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Rewind a few years and Alex Kirilloff was promoted as a highly-touted prospect that debuted during a playoff game and was supposed to soften the blow of a Josh Donaldson absence. In his first season as a major leaguer, he was able to play in just 59 games after dealing with wrist issues. Undergoing season-ending surgery, the hope was that 2022 would be better. 

Unfortunately, Kirilloff needed to shut things down last offseason before heading into spring training, and the wrist issues persisted. Playing in just 45 games last year prior to opting for surgery that literally included a breaking of his wrist, hope was renewed that 2023 would be where health and normalcy was regained.

Understandably, it seemed a bit less-than-promising seeing Kirilloff behind during spring training. He wasn’t playing in back field games early on, and swinging was largely limited to cage sessions as opposed to live at bats. We’re now roughly a month from when Minnesota broke camp down in Fort Myers, and the return appears imminent.

Across nine games split between Fort Myers and St. Paul, Kirilloff is 11-for-31 with a double and four home runs. He’s also seeing the ball well owning an impressive 5/6 K/BB. It was on Sunday, homering twice for the Saints in weather hovering around 40 degrees, that it finally seemed to click and appear this guy may be back.

Despite dealing with the frigid temperatures, Kirilloff split the locations of his homers for the Saints. His first shot, a two-run blast, went over the left centerfield fence. Showing opposite field power against the conditions was plenty impressive in and of itself. His three-run blast later in the game was pulled to right center, and again reflected hard hit results we haven’t seen when he has been hurt.

Over the past few years, it has been wildly evident when Kirilloff was dealing with his ailment. Despite short term fixes like cortisone shots, Kirilloff simply couldn’t hit anything for power as the wrist nagged him. The batted balls that left CHS Field for the Saints had exit velocities of 103 mph and 105.1 mph. That reflected similar exit velocities that he posted earlier in the week with St. Paul, as well.

Beyond just being able to hit, Kirilloff has also kept his positional flexibility during rehab work. Playing in both the outfield and first base, he will give manager Rocco Baldelli options alongside of players such as Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, and Donovan Solano. Initially penciled in as Minnesota’s Opening Day first baseman, he should see plenty of run on the dirt.

It would be unfair to expect a guy that has missed so much time to return and immediately rake. That said, even with the later timeline, there hasn’t been a point in the past two years in which Kirilloff has looked this physically ready. We have heard nothing of setbacks, and the results have indicated reason to be excited as well.

The Twins have been relatively punchless on offense thus far, and despite getting Gallo back, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have been slow out of the gate. Jose Miranda is still looking to get things going, and Larnach has cooled of late. Adding another bat with power potential to the lineup is a great opportunity, and following shortly behind the footsteps of Jorge Polanco would be nice to see.

Minnesota can’t rely on Kirilloff to be their saving grace in the early going, but for a 25-year-old that had plenty of prospect steam it would be great to see a fully healthy version of him let loose. The playoff game back in 2020 was an exciting opportunity to debut, but this might be the most important return yet.

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[Nine of twelve]

Nitpick: His surgery was not on his wrist. It was on one of the bones in his forearm.

[Doctor Gast]

Just like seeing Polanco excelling when he's 100%, so I'm also looking forward to Kiriloff mashing when he's called up. Which appears to be very soon. 

[blindeke]

Yes please. So long, Nick Gordon.

[farmerguychris]

Sounds like he's having a good rehab to get back to driving the ball.  Any word on how he's feeling?  Seems like he was pretty vocal last year about things not 'feeling right' - hopefully he's feeling ok now and hitting again. Would be good addition when Salano is our other 1B option and can have struggles.

[gman]

With Kirilloff only playing every other day, I wouldn't expect him back soon. I think he needs to play every day for a couple of weeks to see how he reacts physically. Which would kind of put it towards the middle of May. If the team is uncertain of him playing everyday, then there is no reason to rush him. I'd like him back in the lineup also but he is not ready to get pushed to an everyday then he simply not ready. His 2 position are first base or outfield and someone will have to get moved to get him in the lineup. They wouldn't bring him up to sit the bench.

[mikelink45]

I think Miranda has found his groove with the two homers and now a 240 BA.  

Now if Kiriloff can provide another bat (and just as important give us some defense at 1B) it will really be exciting.  

[stringer bell]

I looked at Kirilloff's minor league stats today and I can see why he achieved high prospect status. He's been a really good hitter wherever he's been, with sufficient power. My expectation for a healthy remainder of 2023 is establishing himself as a major league regular. Adding a solid hitter to the Twins' lineup will be important. 

I know that AK has played both first and corner outfield on his rehab, but it would seem to me that he would be playing first base almost exclusively given the composition of the Twins' active roster. I believe he is the best fielding option at first on the Twins 40-man roster.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I looked at Kirilloff's minor league stats today and I can see why he achieved high prospect status. He's been a really good hitter wherever he's been, with sufficient power. My expectation for a healthy remainder of 2023 is establishing himself as a major league regular. Adding a solid hitter to the Twins' lineup will be important. 

I know that AK has played both first and corner outfield on his rehab, but it would seem to me that he would be playing first base almost exclusively given the composition of the Twins' active roster. I believe he is the best fielding option at first on the Twins 40-man roster.

Long term yes but in the short term is he better than Gallo?  My memories are fuzzy.  Gallo is probably more valuable in the outfield with his arm but he might also be a gold glove at first.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Long term yes but in the short term is he better than Gallo?  My memories are fuzzy.  Gallo is probably more valuable in the outfield with his arm but he might also be a gold glove at first.

Gallo's been ok at first, especially compared to Solano, and he is a big target to throw to, but I don't think he's as good a first baseman as Kirilloff and I think Gallo is probably a better outfielder than AK. 

[Heiny]

12 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Long term yes but in the short term is he better than Gallo?  My memories are fuzzy.  Gallo is probably more valuable in the outfield with his arm but he might also be a gold glove at first.

And speaking of Gallo,  Is anybody eating crow yet?  LOL!!!!

[TCSquad]

Able to catch a few games of AK's at CHS Field. Even with their smaller spring crowds, hearing the ovations him and Jorge would get were always fun. And seeing him mash over the home run porch in right onto the roof is giving us visions of Jim Thome hitting the flagpole in right at Target Field!

[GKuehl]

Who cares if AK can't play everyday yet? Get this guy up to the big league club -- why waste bullets when he only might have a limited number of bullets left in the chamber? 

There isn't even a place for Kirilloff to play everyday with the Twins -- Gallo and Kirlloff can rotate at 1B with Gallo, Kepler, and Larnach rotating through the corner OF and DH spots when Buxton needs the day off. 

[GKuehl]

Plus, Kirilloff would be a much more valuable pinch hitter than Nick Gordon or Willi Castro. 

[Craig Arko]

When he is called up, I gotta believe it will be with the intention of being permanent and for playing mostly every day. This may also coincide with Buxton starting to play in the field some, opening the DH spot.

[jkcarew]

There’s the bat-to-ball skill, and there’s the power skill/tool.

I assume the first will be there sooner or later. I worry about the power (at the major league level and in major league parks). It will be there if he can cut loose on a daily basis. But that still seems like a big if. I certainly hope so. He’s been a really low BB% guy, which limits the OBP. He needs to provide SLG to be a needle-mover, IMO.

 

[AlGoreRythm]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I think Miranda has found his groove with the two homers and now a 240 BA.  

Now if Kiriloff can provide another bat (and just as important give us some defense at 1B) it will really be exciting.  

Gallo has been better at 1st than I expect Kirilloff to be.

That said, if Gallo moves back to the outfield (preferably taking over for Kepler in RF) it would be a bit of a step down defensively but probably a net positive for a team that needs to hit more consistently.

The problem here is that the Twins seem to view Kepler as much more valuable than his batting numbers suggest, and unless they get the right trade offer, are unlikely to part with Kepler or put him on the bench.

Personally, I'd like to see them trade Kepler for middle relief help, but I don't see that happening.

[Whitey333]

I hope AK comes up soon and adds some spark to an offense that needs it.  What we get who knows?  He hasn't played enough major league the last two years to determine if he is as good as all the hype.  I sure hope is .

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm hoping that they activate him and put him back in St. Paul for a few weeks.  This has been quite the long ordeal for him (for the fans too, but even more so for him) and it would be great if he can really get raking for a bit to get his confidence back and to get rid of any hesitations that he might have coming off of this process.  I'm actually very pro-Kiriloff, but I want him uber-healthy and ready before they throw him into the fire.  I think that's the best way to insure a successful situation in July or August, by sacrificing May to the minors.  Let him go down and hit .400 with a quadruple digit OPS for a while!

[Trov]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Nitpick: His surgery was not on his wrist. It was on one of the bones in his forearm.

I could be wrong, but it was technically a combo of cutting out some of his bone in his forearm, and taking out some cartilage in his wrist. All reports after it was completed is that it was a wrist surgery.  The ulna connects to wrist bones.  I do not know where the section of the bone was removed if closer to elbow, wrist, or mid-forearm.  That being said, I think the fact that even the team released the surgery was referred to as a wrist surgery, I think it is safe for reporters here to refer it as such. 

[CRF]

I just want to get AK up here and see what happens. Finally see what he can do. I hope he's healthy...or at least as healthy as he's been in a long time. I hope he plays regularly and shows all of us that he can be a very good hitter again. It'll be interesting who they move to open up a spot for him.  

[2wins87]

I want to see Kirilloff get a long healthy stretch in the majors.  The problem right now is who he could replace.

It would be easy to replace Gordon or Castro without missing their bats, but currently it seems that Gordon is basically the only backup CF, and Castro is the only backup SS (so he's probably up until Farmer is back regardless).  Now, they could have Kepler back up center or Polanco back up SS in a pinch, but it seems they have no desire to do that.  Castro could also probably back up both center and short reasonably well, so Gordon might be the more expendable one at the moment.  But without options left they have to be ready to probably say goodbye to Gordon for good, which is understandably not a decision to be made lightly with so much season left where they could miss him as depth at the very least later on in the season.

The other option that has been discussed is Larnach.  If Kirilloff is finally healthy, then I think probably he'll be a better hitter than Larnach long-term, but I think that's very much an open question.  I would think that Larnach would look every bit as dominant if he were currently in AAA.  We also haven't really seen a long enough healthy stretch from Kirilloff to see the adjustment/counter-adjustment period.  Larnach has definitely seen the league adjust to him (throwing him tons of breaking balls and changeups), and he seems to be making the adjustment back now with the HR on a changeup yesterday, and the highest OPS of his career so far this season.  We really don't have any idea yet how the league will attack a healthy Kirilloff and how well and quickly he'll be able to adjust.  It would also probably be a bad move to "reward" Larnach with a demotion when he seems to be putting things together nicely.

Probably they will option Kirilloff to St Paul for another few weeks.  If there hasn't been an injury and he's still forcing the issue, then maybe they'll need to find a way to get him in the lineup.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I could be wrong, but it was technically a combo of cutting out some of his bone in his forearm, and taking out some cartilage in his wrist. All reports after it was completed is that it was a wrist surgery.  The ulna connects to wrist bones.  I do not know where the section of the bone was removed if closer to elbow, wrist, or mid-forearm.  That being said, I think the fact that even the team released the surgery was referred to as a wrist surgery, I think it is safe for reporters here to refer it as such. 

I know the bone that was removed was from a forearm bone (I think the ulna but I don't remember). I didn't realize that there was cartilage removed from the wrist, so that means the surgery involved both the wrist and the forearm.

[SteveLV]

Regarding CF, obviously Michael Taylor is default.

Buxton CAN play CF if there was an in-game injury (might lose DH).

Kepler can play CF.

Gallo can play CF.

The latter 2 are serviceable, but downgrades from Taylor and Buxton.

The Twins FO emulating the Dodgers' flexible roster is paying dividends.

We also currently have Gordon, and Castro is much more likely to be sent down.

[DocBauer]

From HS, through the minors, to his all to brief ML time...when healthy...I don't think Kirilloff's bat has ever been in question. He has a real HIT tool and power to all fields. Defensively, I've seen enough of him in the OF to believe he's solid there. But he looks very natural at 1B and there have been a lot of opinions expressed that he could/should be excellent there.

There ARE potential roster crunch issues, but not just for AK. There are, and/or will be, regarding Farmer as well, and Julien at some point. And let's not forget Lewis at some point this summer. But it's an awfully good problem to have! Truth is, a lot of these things tend to work themselves out, witness Maeda vs Ober at the moment. But even still, at some point, the Twins ARE going to have to make a hard decision or two. But if you have someone not producing, and perhaps not part of the future, are such decisions really that hard? But again, a lot of these things tend to work themselves out. 

But to me, what remains most important for Kirilloff, and Lewis for that matter, is the long game. There is nothing so far that indicates AK is having any issues or setbacks. The fact that he's seldom played games back to back, to me, is just a cautious approach. The Twins offense appears to be heating up, with the exception of Correa so far, and Gordon very obviously. I'm not saying he should or shouldn't be optioned to St Paul once his rehab assignment is done, but I can understand the idea. It might allow him to continue to build confidence. Not in his ability, but in his belief in the strength and healing of his wrist on more of a daily basis. 

I am VERY HOPEFULL as to the early returns and results. And I can't wait to see him up with the Twins. But I'd be OK if he got a few more weeks to keep raking and prove to himself that he's all the way back and 100%.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Gallo's been ok at first, especially compared to Solano, and he is a big target to throw to, but I don't think he's as good a first baseman as Kirilloff and I think Gallo is probably a better outfielder than AK. 

No question at all, both of those are true.

[tony&rodney]

Kirilloff needs to play for St. Paul until he proves he is fully healthy and forces the Twins to make a decision through his play. AK needs to earn his call up to MLB. He hasn't really proven anything with the Twins. 

However, AK does have the sweetest swing in the organization and can totally mash. He is a fair outfielder but a good first baseman.

It would sure be nice to see Alex work on his selectivity at the plate and lay off the high stuff. Similar to Miranda, Kirilloff thinks he can hit any pitch and MLB pitchers will take advantage.

The best arrangement possible puts AK at 1B, Buxton in CF, Kepler in RF, Gallo in LF, and Larnach as the DH. These guys can also rotate as well. There are plenty of bats to go around.

[Karbo]

19 hours ago, blindeke said:

Yes please. So long, Nick Gordon.

Gordon or Castro. Not sure who should go down.

[blindeke]

41 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Gordon or Castro. Not sure who should go down.

Gordon currently has the only negative OPS+ I've ever seen

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Long term yes but in the short term is he better than Gallo?  My memories are fuzzy.  Gallo is probably more valuable in the outfield with his arm but he might also be a gold glove at first.

Joey playing great 1B to date……..Gold Glove outfielder…way bigger than his arm.

Farmer will displace Castro on 26 man sometime in May.

Gordon hit .289 - 27 doubles - 8 HR after May 1 in ‘22……..he’s not going anywhere with the ability to play LF - CF - 2B - SS. No options to send down.

Larnach is the Team leader in RBI & he projects to 110 RBI for the season - he currently has Kiriloff’s roster spot on the 26 man.

The only possibility, and the Team is going to be very reluctant to act on this, is to DFA Solano. We have Farmer play 3B about 30% of the time so Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching & to give Miranda a few days off.

Kiriloff is at 1B & Gallo rotates though CF - RF & rests Kiriloff as needed at 1B.

I’m sure they’ll drag their feet to act as long as possible if we keep winning - can maybe get to July & determine which piece (Gordon - Solano - Kepler) can be traded along with a prospect.

In a short recent window……Buxton - Miranda - Kepler all seem to be coming alive.

Correa & Gordon need to get rolling……they both had poor April’s last year.