Tough Decisions Are On Deck for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins front office understandably planned around a variety of injury scenarios during the offseason, building in multiple layers of depth across the roster. 

Dealing with potential overcrowding if people mostly stayed healthy was filed under the 'nice problem to have' label. However, coming up on one month into the season ... we might already be reaching that territory.

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

One of the less-discussed pleasant surprises in this young 2023 Twins season (perhaps because no one wants to jinx anything) is that the team has enjoyed pretty good health so far. With the exception of Kyle Farmer's scary HBP incident, the team has mostly avoided any serious injuries. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff have been trekking along the comeback trail at a pace ahead of expectations.

Polanco's already back and Kirilloff is making a case for his readiness at Triple-A. Farmer himself doesn't figure to be sidelined for too terribly long. It's interesting to envision a Twins roster with all three of these players on it, because you then have to consider who gets pushed off to make room.

Willi Castro is the one clearly expendable piece on the bench at present. We can view him as a pretty clean one-for-one swap with Farmer, offering the same ability to play around the infield and hit from the right side. But how does Kirilloff fit in? 

Like it or not, the Twins aren't bailing on Max Kepler this early. Joey Gallo is locked in and looks great. That leaves Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach as the players whose roster spots are at risk.

Neither is off to a particularly good start, but Gordon has been far worse. In 49 plate appearances, he has produced three singles, two doubles, one walk, and ... that's it. Among 301 players to accrue 40 or more plate appearances through Sunday, Gordon's .120 wOBA ranked dead last. This despite being shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitchers, whom he's only faced three times total.

Larnach hasn't been great, but he's been a lot better than Gordon and is also a much clearer fixture in the Twins' future. Even if the production hasn't been there for Larnach since the first week, he's still taking good at-bats and making a lot of good contact. Not so much for Gordon.

All other things being equal, sending Gordon down would be an easy call. He's barely playing as it is, with just one start in the team's past nine games. But all other things are not equal. Gordon is out of options, meaning that if the Twins want to take him off the roster, they'll need to expose him to waivers and likely lose him. 

I might argue that's ... not the worst thing? Obviously Gordon is not as bad as he's looked so far, but even at his best he's sort of an odd fit on this roster – not the 1A starter at any position and maybe not even the top backup anywhere. The Twins could have made a semi-firm commitment to him in the offseason by trading Kepler and opening a corner spot, but instead they went the opposite direction by signing Gallo and further clogging up the lefty logjam. 

Less than one month into the season, there are already experiencing the fallout of that decision. Gordon's time with the Twins is likely short. And Kepler could very well be next in the crosshairs, as his maddeningly underwhelming play continues and Matt Wallner carries a 1.000 OPS at Triple-A.

Sometimes tough decisions are necessary, and ultimately for the best, even if they hurt at the time. The Twins are going to need to bear down and make some difficult calls, and circumstances are dictating that they'll need to do so sooner rather than later.

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[walkstar89]

I don't want to continue to take losses with a listless offense. We need to prioritize putting our best lineup on the field every day. If that means cutting someone like Gordon or Kepler I'm all for that

[bighat]

Gordon is out of options - Larnach isn't. Trevor should go down.

No way the Twins can afford to lose Gordon, he's super versatile and he carried the team for the 2nd half of the season last year.  You don't give up on him because he's had 3 bad weeks in April. 

Larnach has never blown the doors off, even when given long chances. Injury prone and flashes potential here and there, he strikes me as a Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, or Chris Parmalee clone - he'll find work for a few years but he just doesn't seem to be dynamic enough to become a pillar of any team's offense. 

Guys like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Best thing to do would be to trade Larnach while he still has some value. Unfortunately sending him down to St. Paul is only going to hurt that trade value.....argh! Like I said - it's just a no-win situation with him as long as he's on the team. 

 

[sorney]

Gordon and Kepler can move on.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Nick Gordon is a 4A player at best.  Very replaceable.  That being said, I do not think he has reached the end of his rope.  But I do think he will go before Kepler.

We are starting to get far enough into the season where performance decisions start being made.  It will be interesting to see how long they stay the course before making some internal moves...

[tony&rodney]

Alex Kirilloff should be called up soon, if not today. There haven't been any reports on his wrist, but the line drives and at bats should mean something. Kyle Farmer may need another week or three before he returns. And then there is Royce Lewis, who should be ready by June. Yes Nick, the Twins will need to prioritize some players above others. Activate AK now.

[roger]

Interesting dilemma, Nick.

And one that is arriving a bit sooner than expected.  I have more faith in Larnach than bighat and probably others.  With that said, I do believe he could use more time at AAA.  And that will likely be the move when AK gets activated next Monday.  Like Larnach, AK can play both corner outfield spots as well as first base.  Will be interesting to see whether he plays mostly at first with Gallo in left, or Gallo will stay at first with AK in left?

They really don't have a good backup at both short and third until Farmer returns.  That's why I expect Castro will hang around until his return, then be optioned to the Saints. 

Does Gordon eventually move on, yes.  But I see that being delayed until summer when Lewis returns.  Will give Nick time to improve his hitting so the Twins will get something in return.

 

[mickster]

Keeping Kepler was a huge mistake, and made even bigger with the signing of Gallo.    Gordon teased with the 2nd half last year, but that looks to be his ceiling.   We need Kiriloff and Farmer more over those two and Castro is next in line, but we can't have Wallner just sitting on the bench not playing,  Then you have Julien, Lee, Lewis knocking on the door with Martin hoping to rebound and more tough decisions.    They may need to package some young talent with Kepler at some point  Maeda needs to go to the pen and Ober needs to stick in rotation.    

[Muppet]

I hope Gordon gets DFAd and picked up by a team that can use him every day (if there are any). He is obviously struggling now, but he'll come out of it eventually. He's had a career of bad luck and he'll never get the playing time he needs with this team to get better and show what he can do. Flay away little birdie. Be free. 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Have you looked up what Baddoo has done since 2021?  Wade has been moderately successful because the Giants have used him in a platoon role, almost exclusively against righties.

I would have hoped to see Larnach break out more than he has, but neither of those guys have even outperformed him as is.

Neither were let go specifically for Larnach anyway, with Kirilloff right at the door at the same time.  And Baddoo in particular was a pretty shocking rule 5 pick given his situation at the time.  No one was saying he was a must protect at the time so I don't think it's even fair to say the "let him go".

Anyway, like others I think it's too soon to give up on Gordon, so in the near term the question will likely be Kirilloff vs Larnach.  I think Kirilloff probably will be better if healthy, which he seems to be, but it's no sure thing either.  I'd say give Kirilloff a shot at Larnach's expense, and give Gordon a chance to get right. 

Come midseason, I think they have to be willing to risk losing a few veterans if they aren't helping the team though.

[farmerguychris]

38 minutes ago, bighat said:

Gordon is out of options - Larnach isn't. Trevor should go down.

No way the Twins can afford to lose Gordon, he's super versatile and he carried the team for the 2nd half of the season last year.  You don't give up on him because he's had 3 bad weeks in April. 

Larnach has never blown the doors off, even when given long chances. Injury prone and flashes potential here and there, he strikes me as a Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, or Chris Parmalee clone - he'll find work for a few years but he just doesn't seem to be dynamic enough to become a pillar of any team's offense. 

Guys like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Best thing to do would be to trade Larnach while he still has some value. Unfortunately sending him down to St. Paul is only going to hurt that trade value.....argh! Like I said - it's just a no-win situation with him as long as he's on the team. 

 

I agree partly with your comments - it is a no brainer that Trevor should go down, but only because he does have options left and Gordon can play a bigger variety of positions.  I feel pretty strongly that if we didn't have a ton of left handed bats in the system - Larnach is going to have a better long term career than Gordon.  But you're right, for the time being need to keep Gordon's ability to play multiple positions and hope he hits his way out of this slump.  Its only a matter of time before Larnach is back due to a different injury.

[USAFChief]

We're worried Gordon would be claimed if waived? Why?

 

This isnt a tough call. I have trouble understanding how anyone would prefer Nick Gordon to Trevor Larnach. Nick Gordon wasn't, isn't and never will be someone who holds down a MLB position. He doesn't hit well enough.

Larnach has a chance to be an impact bat.

 

[stringer bell]

I might argue that's ... not the worst thing? Obviously Gordon is not as bad as he's looked so far, but even at his best he's sort of an odd fit on this roster – not the 1A starter at any position and maybe not even the top backup anywhere. 

To me this is the key quote. Nick Gordon isn't really the next man up anywhere. I'd make the case that as a utility player, Willi Castro is superior. Castro is younger, faster and more versatile, especially because he's a switch hitter. Willi probably is what he is as a hitter--substandard with very few free passes--but he plays an acceptable second, short and third as well as all the outfield positions. Nick Gordon as a platoon player on a fair to poor team is about right. 

I'm not ready to give up on Trevor Larnach, but certainly his leash is getting shorter. He started well for the first week and I thought that maybe he was on the road to establishing himself as a major league regular, then came about two weeks of low productivity. 

[Craig Arko]

Kiriloff at 1st, Gallo in LF, Buxton at DH. Where does Larnach play?

If/when Buxton returns to CF then Larnach has a spot.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

We're worried Gordon would be claimed if waived? 

 

This isnt a tough call. I have trouble understanding how anyone would prefer Nick Gordon to Trevor Larnach. 

Pretty much agree, but Nick did an OK job defensively at second base for the first week of the season for what that is worth and he can play an acceptable center field. That amount of positional versatility might be why Gordon would be preferred to Larnach. 

[Riverbrian]

I predict that somebody will go on the injured list before both Kirilloff AND Farmer arrive. 

If that doesn't happen.

Gordon? Personally, I wouldn't be hasty with him. I'd give him some playing time to see if the bat warms up. Gordon was decent last year and we are way too early into this year too be hasty. 

However... and this is a big However...

Gordon is currently in a long stretch of barely playing. If Rocco can't find playing time for him. He isn't worth worrying about. Think about it... We are playing players who are not playing well enough to keep anybody OUT of the LINEUP but Gordon is being kept out of the lineup anyway.

If this is the case and right now it is the case. Gordon is nobody that you worry about losing.    

Castro? Has one option... Can be stashed in AAA. 

Larnach? Has two options... Can be stashed in AAA.

Kirilloff? Has one option... Can be stashed in AAA.

[Doctor Gast]

I believe the talk about delaying Kiriloff's could be a little linked somewhat to this situation (although it shouldn't be). If AK is ready (which he seems to be now) that takes priority. Larnach has an option & he's been slumping so I think he has to be the one. Gordon wasn't MLB material as an INFer before he came up. When he was converted to OFer he started to take off. Now that he's been used primarily as an INFer again his #s have tanked. I still like to keep Gordon around as a LH bat CF especially because IMO Kepler, Gallo & maybe Taylor are gone next season. IMO Gordon could turn it around if he's focused in the OF, but with Gallo, Kepler and Larnach with Wallner in the wings, he won't get the opportunity. As of right now we can't get anyone for either Kepler or Gordon in trade.

They may want to keep Lewis in AAA as long as possible also but IMO he'll tear up there & it'll be hard to keep him there coming June. That'll make this decision more difficult down the road if there isn't any serious injuries.

[Mike Sixel]

Kepler hasn't hit since 2019... He should go but won't.

I have no great need to keep Gordon, and I've been one of his biggest supporters. Farmer and likely Lewis do what he does, better. 

I'd prefer AK at first, Gallo in right or left, and Larnach in the other corner. 

I'd be looking to deal Kepler and one of Maeda or Mahle to someone like the Mets..... At some point you need to take the chance on Ober and Varland and AK and Larnach. We know what Kepler is....

[tarheeltwinsfan]

21 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Kiriloff at 1st, Gallo in LF, Buxton at DH. Where does Larnach play?

If/when Buxton returns to CF then Larnach has a spot.

To answer your question of where does Larnach play, after carefully considering all the options spelled out in this worrisome, intelligent, well written article and the comments which followed,  I vote for St Paul. 

[mickster]

25 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Kiriloff at 1st, Gallo in LF, Buxton at DH. Where does Larnach play?

If/when Buxton returns to CF then Larnach has a spot.

Gallo in RF

[Hunter McCall]

I've been thinking this exact thing for the last couple weeks. Gordon has been atrocious so far and is getting outplayed by everyone. Originally, I assumed the Twins would DFA Donovan Solano once everyone was healthy, but you can't do that.

On top of Gordon's poor performance so far, the Twins also have reinforcements coming. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Eduoard Julien, and Austin Martin all could fill very similar roles in the future that Nick Gordon has filled in the past, and likely be much better at them. This softens any potential blow of losing Gordon.

It will be an interesting decision for the team to make if/when they call up AK and Kyle Farmer returns from the IL. Good article!

[Parfigliano]

Toss Gordon keep Castro.  Kepler hasnt hit since 2019 but provides defense.  Unfortunately this team sorely needs offense so he has to be next man up to be next man gone.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bighat said:

Gordon is out of options - Larnach isn't. Trevor should go down.

No way the Twins can afford to lose Gordon, he's super versatile and he carried the team for the 2nd half of the season last year.  You don't give up on him because he's had 3 bad weeks in April. 

Larnach has never blown the doors off, even when given long chances. Injury prone and flashes potential here and there, he strikes me as a Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, or Chris Parmalee clone - he'll find work for a few years but he just doesn't seem to be dynamic enough to become a pillar of any team's offense. 

Guys like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Best thing to do would be to trade Larnach while he still has some value. Unfortunately sending him down to St. Paul is only going to hurt that trade value.....argh! Like I said - it's just a no-win situation with him as long as he's on the team. 

 

I agree 100%. Except I think you got the names backwards. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, bighat said:

Gordon is out of options - Larnach isn't. Trevor should go down.

No way the Twins can afford to lose Gordon, he's super versatile and he carried the team for the 2nd half of the season last year.  You don't give up on him because he's had 3 bad weeks in April. 

Larnach has never blown the doors off, even when given long chances. Injury prone and flashes potential here and there, he strikes me as a Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, or Chris Parmalee clone - he'll find work for a few years but he just doesn't seem to be dynamic enough to become a pillar of any team's offense. 

Guys like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Best thing to do would be to trade Larnach while he still has some value. Unfortunately sending him down to St. Paul is only going to hurt that trade value.....argh! Like I said - it's just a no-win situation with him as long as he's on the team. 

 

I don't understand the Baddoo example.  He is terrible.  His wRC+ last year was 65 and so for this year it's 63.  How is it bad that the twins lost him?  Wade jr. is also hardly a difference maker.  He is off to a good start this year but he has a career WAR of 2.1 after 816 career PAs and Larnach has produce 1.9 in 566 PAs.  The league has many examples of guys that were mediocre and then took off after a couple partial seasons.  Let's not write off Larnach just yet.

[Major League Ready]

Could we get a halfway decent A ball prospect for Gordon or a 17-18 year old DSL player?  That would be a more dignified option than cutting him.

[terrydactyls]

55 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I agree partly with your comments - it is a no brainer that Trevor should go down, but only because he does have options left and Gordon can play a bigger variety of positions.  I feel pretty strongly that if we didn't have a ton of left handed bats in the system - Larnach is going to have a better long term career than Gordon.  But you're right, for the time being need to keep Gordon's ability to play multiple positions and hope he hits his way out of this slump.  Its only a matter of time before Larnach is back due to a different injury.

"I feel pretty strongly that if we didn't have a ton of left handed bats in the system - Larnach is going to have a better long term career than Gordon."  Please clarify.

[I wish the twins were good]

2 hours ago, bighat said:

Gordon is out of options - Larnach isn't. Trevor should go down.

No way the Twins can afford to lose Gordon, he's super versatile and he carried the team for the 2nd half of the season last year.  You don't give up on him because he's had 3 bad weeks in April. 

Larnach has never blown the doors off, even when given long chances. Injury prone and flashes potential here and there, he strikes me as a Tyler Austin, Luke Raley, or Chris Parmalee clone - he'll find work for a few years but he just doesn't seem to be dynamic enough to become a pillar of any team's offense. 

Guys like Larnach are actually long-term detrimental to a team. Because the Twins will end up trying millions of ways to fit this guy into the heart of their offense, but he's just not "that guy". The Twins have let go Akil Baddoo for free and trade LaMonte Wade Jr. for a bag of balls - both because Larnach was seen as the better player. And now Gordon too? 

Best thing to do would be to trade Larnach while he still has some value. Unfortunately sending him down to St. Paul is only going to hurt that trade value.....argh! Like I said - it's just a no-win situation with him as long as he's on the team. 

 

It's a story as old as time - guy brakes into the majors on the strength of his ability to crush a fastball, fizzles out because he can't figure out a major league breaking ball. 

[Jocko87]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Could get a halfway decent A ball prospect for Gordon or a 17-18 year old DSL player?  That would be a more dignified option than cutting him.

I was wondering if they could get someone with a similar skill set that bats right handed and has options.  Probably have to throw a prospect in to get the options but they could kill two birds with one stone here.  It would cost quite a bit more than just Gordon but the Red's store has a Nick Senzel with three options possibly available.  Former top 2 pick, plays all over, hits right handed and has not been good.  Great comp for Gordon now that I think about it.

I expect Castro to be on an Uber platinum subscription plan between Target and CHS field all year.  That's the role he signed up for.  I think his first trip will come when AK forces his way up.  It would make sense to me that they can absorb a short term left handed overload rather than make that tough call on Gordon for at least a few weeks.  After Cortes on Tuesday its another long stretch of righties.  They might be able to make this dance work with Larnach and AK for a few weeks after Farmer comes back but once Lewis and Julian start beating the door down something significant will have to happen. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Interesting dilemma, Nick.

And one that is arriving a bit sooner than expected.  I have more faith in Larnach than bighat and probably others.  With that said, I do believe he could use more time at AAA. 

 

He is 26 and needs more time in AAA?Really?  I would love to see examples of guys that age 24 and 25 were league average at best then were sent down and later became something more than league average?

 

[TwinsDr2021]

31 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't understand the Baddoo example.  He is terrible.  His wRC+ last tear was 65 and so for this year it's 63.  How is it bad that the twins lost him?  Wade jr. is also hardly a difference maker.  He is off to a good start this year but he has a career WAR of 2.1 after 816 career PAs and Larnach has produce 1.9 in 566 PAs.  The league has many examples of guys that were mediocre and then took off after a couple partial seasons.  Let's not write off Larnach just yet.

I didn't take it that Baddo or Wade have been great or even good, just that they were let go because of what the Twins thought of Larnach, and as of today that hasn't been great.