Reinforcements Are Coming, Who Loses Out?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have a group of players on their way back from injury and a handful of healthy players struggling. If we’re lucky, the Twins may have a roster crunch on the horizon. Which current players could be affected?

Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports

The Twins are cautiously optimistic that a few injured players continue to grow closer to returning to action. Beginning with Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff have to return in the next couple of weeks according to the 20-day limit on minor-league rehab assignments for hitters. Royce Lewis should also be arriving in the first half of the season. The Twins' offense is in need of a shakeup in the early going. Who could lose out as some of these bats return?

Donovan Solano
The Twins likely didn’t have “everyday first baseman” in mind when they inked Solano to a modest $2m deal late this spring. He’s done a fine job on both sides of the ball, and his play doesn’t warrant a demotion.

Still, Solano is a fantastic player to have as a matchups play. His OPS over .800 to begin the season has been much appreciated, but his best bet to maintain his early production is for the Twins to match him up against left-handed pitching as much as possible. With how many left-handed bats are returning, the Twins' offense would likely be better off reverting Solano to a platoon role despite his hot start.

Nick Gordon
Gordon is off to a confusing start. Whiffs have been a big part of his career, but he’s only struck out once so far. It would be a good sign, but he also only has four hits in 40 at-bats, and his ability to impact the ball as we saw last season, especially against right-handed pitching, has yet to show up in 2023.

Gordon’s utility remains his best skill and should continue to get him playing time as a left-handed platoon around the diamond. We’ve already seen the Twins pull back on his playing time at second when Edouard Julien got the call. This will continue with Polanco’s return, as he’ll soak up all of the playing time at second against right-handed pitching. 2022 looked like something of a breakout for Gordon. He could lose playing time or even his roster spot if things continue to go poorly. He’ll have to start hitting very soon if an encore is in order for 2023.

Max Kepler
There’s not much of an indicator that the Twins are willing to treat Kepler in a way that reflects his performance. Despite being a below-league-average hitter since the juiced ball 2019 season, the Twins reportedly declined offers to trade Kepler this offseason and opened the year leading him off yet again. He has not rewarded their faith in him.

Joey Gallo’s brief power flash to begin 2023 should automatically afford him playing time over Kepler, whose offense hasn’t matched the defense in years. Taking things a step further, not only could Kirilloff taking over first base push Gallo to right field, but he’s been starting in the outfield himself on his rehab assignment. That’s bad news for any corner outfielder that’s struggling if Kirilloff can make it through his assignment healthy. 

Kepler has a team option for $10.5m for 2024 remaining on his contract, and it’s difficult to imagine him raising his game to the level of justifying that number. If the slow start continues and declining that option becomes a certainty, there’s no reason for Kepler to serve as more than a bench player/defensive replacement. Right-field defense is too replaceable, especially in Target Field, and it’s time to stop accepting below-average offense at an offensive premium position after all of these years.

It seems like whenever debates begin regarding a roster crunch, these things work themselves out. With 3+ possible regulars on the horizon, it’s worth exploring who could lose out. Are there any other Twins in line for reduced playing time or even a lost roster spot? Let us know below!

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Kepler is the obvious answer here, barring health. 

[Blyleven2011]

My thoughts exactly  is Kepler  ...

Time to move on and trade him or release  ...

[mk]

Buxton hasn’t been the same after his collision on the base paths. Maybe a stint on the IL is in order until he’s healthy enough to play in the outfield. Right now he’s not (nor is anyone else) hitting enough to be a full time DH.

 

 

[MinnInPa]

this team is so nauseating to watch flailing away at the plate... K Kings again with double digit K's nightly. Hopefully the future brings guys that can put the bat on the ball

[IndianaTwin]

Did you not mention Julien and his OPS+ of 11 because you were already assuming he'd lose out by being optioned when Polanco is activated? He seems like an obvious candidate for losing playing time. It's hard to imagine Larnach also not being affected. 

And a nitpick is that Kirilloff doesn't have to be rushed, in that he has the ability to be optioned. 

[LewFordLives]

7 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

 

And a nitpick is that Kirilloff doesn't have to be rushed, in that he has the ability to be optioned. 

Agreed on Kirilloff. I would add that he really hasn't done anything in his short career thus far to justify an automatic spot on the MLB roster. Make him force the issue. (Although with this lineup that shouldn't be difficult.)

[HrbieFan]

Kepler has played in 7 games. In his last 4 he is hitting .250 with 2HR. Since coming back from the IL he is hitting .333. Stats can be skewed, just let him get on a roll. 

[David Maro]

This is becoming hard to watch. Starting pitching has done its job. What I see is a lineup of strike out artists. Just look at last night 16 strike outs is not going to get you many wins. Michael A and Salono are the only bats in the lineup. Maybe the hitting coach needs to answer some questions. Bringing back Gallo isn't going to change anything,only add to the strike outs. Kirilloff hasn't shown he can stay on the field,which is sad,but may be time to move on. 

 

[Trov]

On the current 26 man, Julien will be sent down when either Gallo or Polanco are back.  After that, when AK or the other are back will lead to some crunching.  Castro and Garlick are most likely to be sent back down.  Castro is out of options but he would likely pass through waivers, if not, so be it we can fill his roll with others not worried about that.  When Lewis and Farmer are ready to come back that is when things will get really squeezed.  It will really depend on if they look for trades, willing to let a guy go completely, or will option guys that still can.  Much of that will depend on performance at the time a move needs to be made. 

Larnach started off hot, but cooled off quickly and could be optioned down.  Not as likely, but Miranda still has options, but he would really need to be struggling in my opinion to go that route.  Gordon would have to pass through waivers, and I doubt he would, so if they are looking to send him down, they need to look into a trade first in my opinion, but that is not likely to happen either.  

Solano has show decent enough bat, but if that goes really cold over next few weeks they could look to cut him if needed, the contract is small enough to eat.  Most likely though someone will be hurt and the moves will take care of themselves. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Trov said:

On the current 26 man, Julien will be sent down when either Gallo or Polanco are back.  After that, when AK or the other are back will lead to some crunching.  Castro and Garlick are most likely to be sent back down.  Castro is out of options but he would likely pass through waivers, if not, so be it we can fill his roll with others not worried about that.  When Lewis and Farmer are ready to come back that is when things will get really squeezed.  It will really depend on if they look for trades, willing to let a guy go completely, or will option guys that still can.  Much of that will depend on performance at the time a move needs to be made. 

Larnach started off hot, but cooled off quickly and could be optioned down.  Not as likely, but Miranda still has options, but he would really need to be struggling in my opinion to go that route.  Gordon would have to pass through waivers, and I doubt he would, so if they are looking to send him down, they need to look into a trade first in my opinion, but that is not likely to happen either.  

Solano has show decent enough bat, but if that goes really cold over next few weeks they could look to cut him if needed, the contract is small enough to eat.  Most likely though someone will be hurt and the moves will take care of themselves. 

FYI, Castro does have 1 option left.

[HoskenPowell]

Castro goes back down , AK can be brought back very ,  very slowly in the minors and Garlick goes back down.   That takes care of 2 spots and with the never ending injuries I don't think they will have to worry about 3 at a time.  If it honestly does then Julien goes back down.

[chpettit19]

Will be interesting to see what they do today to open Gallo's spot. Wouldn't be surprised to see it be Julien and have them shift Solano over to 2B, but wouldn't be surprised if it's Castro either. My bet would be Julien, but I don't feel strongly about it. They just wouldn't have him sitting on the bench like they would with Castro. But if they're willing to give Julien more chances to find his footing everyday vs righties, and feel comfortable with Gordon as the backup at SS it could be Castro.

I don't think Kepler loses ABs to Gallo yet. Gallo is going to slot back in vs righties at 1B, I'd guess. Kepler, Gordon, and Larnach are fighting each other for ABs now. One of them needs to figure it out. I'm a Larnach believer, but he needs to get more aggressive and swing at some of these "get me over" breaking balls they lob him for early strikes.

My guess: 
4/19 Gallo is reinstated off IL and Julien heads to St Paul. Gallo takes over as fulltime 1B. Gordon/Solano platoon at 2B.
4/25 (I believe he can stay on rehab til then) Polanco reinstated off IL and Castro heads to St Paul. Polanco fulltime 2B. Gallo/Solano platoon at 1B. Kepler/Gallo platoon in RF.
3/1 (I believe it's the day he has to be taken off rehab) Kirilloff reinstated off IL and this is where a real decision has to be made. Gordon/Larnach/Garlick fighting for their 26-man spot over the next week and a half. Gordon having a leg up with having no options, and being the most versatile defensively. Garlick having next best shot because he's a righty. Larnach being sent down if he continues to struggle as he has options, and is one of many lefty bats. Larnach coming back to life makes the decision far harder for 26-man spot decision.

[mikelink45]

I would expect the cuts in this order:

1. Julien
2. Gordon
3. Castro
4. Larnach (I would love to see him start to produce, but...)
5. Kepler (I think they just can't let him go and no one else wants to trade for him.

[Riverbrian]

Everyday playing time goes to players who produce at a level that deserves every day playing time.  It is senseless to play Max Kepler like he is Mike Trout. He isn't.  

At this point, early in the season, with K's off the charts, nobody on this roster has produced at a level that they NEED TO BE in the lineup EVERY DAY. 

Jose Miranda - Current OPS .503 is that every day playing time deserving? 

Max Kepler - .545 is that every day playing time deserving? 

Kyle Farmer - .641

Larnach - .672

It's early in the season so the numbers are volatile and a hot streak can turn those numbers around quickly but until someone starts playing like being out of the lineup could hurt the team... nobody deserves every day playing time.

Who on this roster deserves every day playing time so far in the season? 

If nobody deserves every day playing time... they can all yield playing time for those coming off the disabled list and spread the "losing out" around. The "losing out" doesn't have to absorbed by one player.   

 

[roger]

Interesting conversation.  There are four players who will be added over the coming few weeks, Gallo, Polo, AK and Farmer.  There are three obvious assignments to St. Paul, Julien, Garlick and Castro (does Garlick have waivers?  or will he need to be DFA'd).

The fourth player I see losing his spot is Gordon.  Could last year be a flash in the pan?  The problem is he doesn't have options.  So I see some roster engineering to get them to the All-Star break.  Then see Gordon being moved as part of a trade.

The other reason Gordon has less value is the fact that they have four fantastic prospects on the horizon, Lewis, Lee, Julien and Martin.  And the combination of the four can play all the positions Gordon does.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

Agreed on Kirilloff. I would add that he really hasn't done anything in his short career thus far to justify an automatic spot on the MLB roster. Make him force the issue. (Although with this lineup that shouldn't be difficult.)

How many hitters on the roster have earned the “every day hitter, roster lock” tag? This team cant find runs with both hands and a map.

Kiriloff healthy = immediate lineup insertion

[farmerguychris]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would expect the cuts in this order:

1. Julien
2. Gordon
3. Castro
4. Larnach (I would love to see him start to produce, but...)
5. Kepler (I think they just can't let him go and no one else wants to trade for him.

I think it will be Castro before Gordon as Gordon doesn't have any options left while Castro does.

[Whitey333]

In three years Kirilloff hasn't shown that he is a competent major league hitter. Nhe should not be considered an automatic spot on the team.  There's lots of hitting issues on this team.  What about our two highly paid studs?  What a waste of money they have been so far.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

This is becoming hard to watch. Starting pitching has done its job. What I see is a lineup of strike out artists. 

Just like every other lineup in major league baseball. The Twins are just slightly below average at striking out. The Washington Nationals are a league best 110 Ks but they also don't hit any home runs.

[GNess]

It's April 19 for goodness sake - no definitive trends have emerged yet other than Twins in general have struggled to produce runs in some games. They have faced some stiff competition as well. It is however, good news more potential help for the offensive side of things is close to arriving.

[Twins GFP]

Kiriloff will not be immediately thrown onto the mlb roster.  I would not be surprised to see him spend the majority of the year in AAA

Like it or not, Kepler's leash will be extremely long, like post trade deadline long.

Julien will probably be up and down through the year unless he REALLY produces offensively.

IMO Gordon is the one at risk.  He is the the most replaceable and his play last year is looking more and more like a blip.

[BsuNemo]

For all of us wishing we had a better option than Kep in right field... We don't at this point. There's almost zero chance we just let him go. It would have to be a trade. Rocco isn't going to just cut him. Julien looks like he's trying to hard. A down and back up would do him well to reset. Buck doesn't look right. The strikeouts are out of control, but that's normal for this team with this manager. Solano reminds me a bit of Eduardo Escobar, not so much in the power department but in his ability to get hits. It's unlike the other players on this team. I just really hope we find a way to have an offense. Our pitching is too good to waste... 

Side note; any idea why Rocco gets pagan up in the tenth last night? There appears to be no situation in which he was coming in?? 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Kiriloff will not be immediately thrown onto the mlb roster.  I would not be surprised to see him spend the majority of the year in AAA

Like it or not, Kepler's leash will be extremely long, like post trade deadline long.

Julien will probably be up and down through the year unless he REALLY produces offensively.

IMO Gordon is the one at risk.  He is the the most replaceable and his play last year is looking more and more like a blip.

If Kirilloff spends the majority of the year in AAA it'd mean he's no longer a part of their future plans. It'd be an absolute disaster if he spends most of the year in AAA.

[TiberTwins]

46 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

We cannot afford to lose a bunch of games while waiting for somebody to rediscover themselves.

This

[MGX]

For roster moves this would be my guess

Gallo - Julien

Polanco - Castro

Kiriloff - St. Paul until he forces his way onto the roster (hopefully this happens quickly)

Farmer - Garlick

 

Playing time should go to those are producing the most. Give all 13 a chance to work their way into more playing time, but the bulk of it needs to go to whomever is producing. 

[Mike Sixel]

go get another catcher and give Jeffers a 1B glove......:) just to add to the crunch.

Julien for Gallo

Castro for Polanco

Kepler (or Larnach) (I wish) for Kiriloff (assuming AK is hitting, and Kepler is what he has been for nearly 1000 ABs now)

Garlick for Farmer

Lewis for Gordon or Miranda (if Miranda isn't hitting, him for sure)

Winder for whomever at the backend of the pen 

[TwinsDr2021]

The problem for this team and the front office is their complete lack at developing any prospects besides relief pitchers. It would be nice to have 1 OF prospect ready to step up and put pressure on Gordon, Miranda and Larnach to deliver.

It is early and time for Larnach to get better (His time in the majors doesn't really show he is much better than what he is doing now, but there is always hope)

It isn't a huge surprise that Miranda is struggling this year and should be given sometime to get back to being good, but again there is basically nothing in the minors to send him down for a couple of weeks to get his confidence back.

Gordon fooled quite a few people last year (weren't some calling for him to be a starter?), he is 27 and is nothing more than a utility player simple as that.

Ultimately if  Buxton and Correa hit like the stars they are, the rest probably won't really matter..

[Twins GFP]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Kirilloff spends the majority of the year in AAA it'd mean he's no longer a part of their future plans. It'd be an absolute disaster if he spends most of the year in AAA.

I don't agree with that premise.  It may take him a considerable amount of time to get his wrist right, that will be done at the AAA level.  That doesn't mean he is out of their plans.  

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I don't agree with that premise.  It may take him a considerable amount of time to get his wrist right, that will be done at the AAA level.  That doesn't mean he is out of their plans.  

If it takes him "the majority of the season" to get his wrist right there's no way they can count on it staying right and have him be a large part of their plan going into next season. He's in AAA and has been playing back to back days, albeit only 7 innings I believe (side note: does an extra 2 innings in the field really matter that much? 7 is a weird number of innings to me). From what I've seen (I've watched about half his ABs) he's swinging just fine and hitting the ball well. If he's still there 4+ months from now because his wrist still isn't right he moves fully to "hey, it'd be great if he surprises and takes a spot, but we're bringing in someone else to take 1B fulltime."