Reinforcements Are Coming, Who Loses Out?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

If it takes him "the majority of the season" to get his wrist right there's no way they can count on it staying right and have him be a large part of their plan going into next season. He's in AAA and has been playing back to back days, albeit only 7 innings I believe (side note: does an extra 2 innings in the field really matter that much? 7 is a weird number of innings to me). From what I've seen (I've watched about half his ABs) he's swinging just fine and hitting the ball well. If he's still there 4+ months from now because his wrist still isn't right he moves fully to "hey, it'd be great if he surprises and takes a spot, but we're bringing in someone else to take 1B fulltime."

I am not a doctor and therefore not able to make medical determinations based on observations.  Many, many factors can weigh into his ability to play.  Timing, strength, confidence, setbacks.  It is not unreasonable to think they will give him a lot of time in AAA, especially if it takes him longer to get back to his "normal" self.  Either way, to make the leap that if he spent extended time in AAA this season he would no longer be in their plans is a very large leap to make with a high end prospect.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Assuming no injuries, I think the order is easy for a couple of spots and then becomes tough...

(1) Gallo for Julien. Nice prospect but presently overmatched at the MLB level. 

(2) Polanco for Castro. Nice 27th or 28th man, perfect to have him with an option year left. 

(3) Kirilloff for … Battle to the death between Garlick, Larnach, and Gordon. I think Garlick's lack of defense and inability to hit RH pitching makes him go first. Having said that, Larnach and Gordon better start hitting soon or it could be them. Probably Larnach first since he still has options. Kirilloff will come up immediately if he hits at AAA. We are hurting for bats. Frankly, anyone that hits at AAA has a chance to move up. 

This all shows how desperately we need the 2019-2022 Polanco to reappear and hit in the top 4 in the order. We also need at least 2 bats from the Gallo, Kirilloff , Larnach. Miranda, and Gordon group to emerge and hit - and I'm talking just a .750-.800 OPS, not at an All Star level.  Somebody who can competently handle the 5 or 6 spot in the order. I didn't list Kepler because we already know from experience that he isn't that guy with the bat.  

[KirbyDome89]

3 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

  Either way, to make the leap that if he spent extended time in AAA this season he would no longer be in their plans is a very large leap to make with a high end prospect.

In your scenario Kirilloff will have lost 3 straight major league season's to the same wrist aliment. How do you justify holding 1B open for him again heading into next year if that's the case? 

[RpR]

With 3 strike outs and a walk last night, Polanco would fit right in the the current Twins team.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not a doctor and therefore not able to make medical determinations based on observations.  Many, many factors can weigh into his ability to play.  Timing, strength, confidence, setbacks.  It is not unreasonable to think they will give him a lot of time in AAA, especially if it takes him longer to get back to his "normal" self.  Either way, to make the leap that if he spent extended time in AAA this season he would no longer be in their plans is a very large leap to make with a high end prospect.

The problem with this  is he is 25 years old (and 167 days) and if he spends the majority of the season in AAA he isn't much of a prospect anymore or somebody that should be counted on anything more than depth. (Regardless if it is his injury or lack of hitting keeping him down). The problem like I said elsewhere is this FO doesn't develop prospects, so we all end up talking about 25,26,and 27 (28 in Ober's case) year olds like they are going to figure it out and be above average players, when in reality unless said player is a catcher or relief pitcher they generally are who they are at that age or instead of getting better they are on the downside.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not a doctor and therefore not able to make medical determinations based on observations.  Many, many factors can weigh into his ability to play.  Timing, strength, confidence, setbacks.  It is not unreasonable to think they will give him a lot of time in AAA, especially if it takes him longer to get back to his "normal" self.  Either way, to make the leap that if he spent extended time in AAA this season he would no longer be in their plans is a very large leap to make with a high end prospect.

The Twins, and Alex, have all said the Drs have fully cleared him. There's nothing "wrong" with his wrist anymore from a surgery sense. Of course there's timing, strength, etc. things to be considered. But you said "majority of the season." If it takes him until July to get his timing down he's not a high end prospect anymore. Shoot, he's not a prospect of any kind if it takes him the majority of the season to get his timing down. If his strength is a question why is he playing back to back days now? If it takes him until July to get his confidence back he's not a high end prospect anymore. Setbacks means his wrist isn't right, and you can't count on him if his wrist still isn't right.

He's 25 and coming off 2 straight season ending surgeries to his wrist. They've all said this was the last resort surgery. If this doesn't fix it his wrist likely ends his career, or at least ends any chance he's a high end major leaguer. If there's setbacks after he's been given the all clear (which he has) he's no longer a high end prospect. 3 straight years of his wrist not allowing him to perform ends any talk of him being a high end prospect. Him spending most of the season in AAA for any of these reasons means he's no longer to be counted on as a top end prospect.

[LA Vikes Fan]

If Kirilloff hits in his rehab starts and the wrist isn't a big issue, I think he will come up. This is a team desperate for hitting. So far, so good, 5-16, 1 HR, 2RBI, .313/.421/.500 (.921) - ultimate small sample size.  If he hits over he next 2-3 weeks, I would expect to see him at the MLB level. 

[Rosterman]

Kirilloff, Winder, Polanco join Gallo in St. Paul. That's four guys who could replace what four on the major league roster? (Garlick, Julien, Moran perhaps, and...Castro)

[stringer bell]

Without adding a first baseman while subtracting two guys (Sano and Arraez) who played there a lot in past seasons, I think the Twins were expressing confidence in Kirilloff being healthy for a majority of the 2023 season and for him to be able to put up representative numbers. The Twins brass knows more about Kirilloff's wrist than any of us do. Also in this thought process, there must be belief that AK can and will hit if not impeded by the wrist. 

Again, being patient while Kirilloff gets ready indicates belief that Kirilloff is worth waiting for. Count me as a believer as well. No one really knows if the wrist will hold up, of course. I firmly believe that Kirilloff will be an outstanding hitter if it (the wrist) does hold up. He isn't entitled to say "I'm ready" and be inserted into the lineup, but if he shows by his at-bats and performance in batting practice etc. that he is healthy, I doubt he'll be in St. Paul long. There is a real need to lengthen the lineup and include more threats in the middle. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins, and Alex, have all said the Drs have fully cleared him. There's nothing "wrong" with his wrist anymore from a surgery sense. Of course there's timing, strength, etc. things to be considered. But you said "majority of the season." If it takes him until July to get his timing down he's not a high end prospect anymore Shoot, he's not a prospect of any kind if it takes him the majority of the season to get his timing down. If his strength is a question why is he playing back to back days now? If it takes him until July to get his confidence back he's not a high end prospect anymore. Setbacks means his wrist isn't right, and you can't count on him if his wrist still isn't right.

He's 25 and coming off 2 straight season ending surgeries to his wrist. They've all said this was the last resort surgery. If this doesn't fix it his wrist likely ends his career, or at least ends any chance he's a high end major leaguer. If there's setbacks after he's been given the all clear (which he has) he's no longer a high end prospect. 3 straight years of his wrist not allowing him to perform ends any talk of him being a high end prospect. Him spending most of the season in AAA for any of these reasons means he's no longer to be counted on as a top end prospect.

That is not the narrative I am referring to.  Age is somewhat irrelevant for this discussion.  You have a high ceiling guy that has shown (pre injury) that he could be a potential big league player.  He has missed extensive time due to injury, had a very uncommon surgery to fix it, and now you are saying that if he doesn't show the goods in the next few weeks he will be jettisoned from the plans?  I find that extremely unlikely.  He may not be the first choice to be a starting player, but they will not immediately write him off either.

This isn't black or white.  There are many viable reasons for the Twins to keep him in AAA that do not mean he is out of their plans.

[stringer bell]

This is speculation that will likely be answered in a few hours, but I do believe the Twins will send down Julien before they send out Castro. The reasons for such a move revolve around Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon and Joey Gallo. Gallo is returning today unless something pops up and someone will need to go. Gallo played a decent first base so that is where he will likely play when he returns. If the Twins want to keep one of their few productive hitters in the lineup, they'll have to move Solano, and second base has been his primary position (he got plenty of work there in Spring Training as well). This squeezes playing time away from Julien, and as a top prospect, I'm sure the Twins want him playing, not sitting.

The other side of this is preferred subs. Willi Castro is the preferred backup to both shortstop and third base. Castro hasn't hit much, but he's performed acceptably at four different positions--third, short, second and left field. Nick Gordon is off to a rough start and is not the preferred backup to either Correa or Miranda. Until Kyle Farmer returns from injury, I think the Twins keep Castro around as the 26th man.

[FlyingFinn]

34 minutes ago, RpR said:

With 3 strike outs and a walk last night, Polanco would fit right in the the current Twins team.

You don't like Polanco. You don't like Kirilloff. Do you just want the current Twins to play all year with their current lack of hitting? What's your solution?

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

That is not the narrative I am referring to.  Age is somewhat irrelevant for this discussion.  You have a high ceiling guy that has shown (pre injury) that he could be a potential big league player.  He has missed extensive time due to injury, had a very uncommon surgery to fix it, and now you are saying that if he doesn't show the goods in the next few weeks he will be jettisoned from the plans?  I find that extremely unlikely.  He may not be the first choice to be a starting player, but they will not immediately write him off either.

This isn't black or white.  There are many viable reasons for the Twins to keep him in AAA that do not mean he is out of their plans.

I didn't say "the next few weeks." You said "the majority of the season." The season is 6+ months long. If he's in the minors for over 3 months for any reason he's no longer a top end prospect, and they'd move beyond him in their plans. Nobody said they'd cut him, but he wouldn't be part of their future plans in terms of having a spot on the 26-man roster locked up for 2024. If he's 26 and doesn't have a spot on the 26-man locked up he's just another guy in the system. Like Garlick for example. Or Cave before him. They didn't just completely get rid of Garlick, but he isn't part of their team building plans beyond being a depth piece.

This is 100% a make or break year for Kirilloff. If he can't establish himself as a legit major leaguer this year he's just a depth piece and they won't have him as part of their future plans. Him spending "the majority of the season" in AAA would be an absolute disaster for him. Whether it's because of his wrist or his performance. Doesn't matter. Same with Larnach, Gordon, etc. If they don't establish themselves this year they're done as possible pieces of the future core when it comes to team planning. If any of these guys are spending most of the season in AAA it's a sign they aren't who they expected them to be and it's time to move them down the pecking order and look for upgrades.

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

You don't like Polanco. You don't like Kirilloff. Do you just want the current Twins to play all year with their current lack of hitting? What's your solution?

Where did I say I did not like Polanco.

Kirilloff has not shown he is any better than those here now, so all the  -- I cannot wait till x, y or h comes up is wishful thinking is just  wishing with out reason.

I very much hope when Polanco comes back he is pretty much what he was before, but I do not believe in wishful thinking miracles as is broadcast here often.

[I wish the twins were good]

46 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I am not a doctor and therefore not able to make medical determinations based on observations.  Many, many factors can weigh into his ability to play.  Timing, strength, confidence, setbacks.  It is not unreasonable to think they will give him a lot of time in AAA, especially if it takes him longer to get back to his "normal" self.  Either way, to make the leap that if he spent extended time in AAA this season he would no longer be in their plans is a very large leap to make with a high end prospect.

We may just be watching a prospect in the process of not panning out. I think they can work around it. Doesn't need to be a disaster unless they try and force a non-performing player onto the roster (cough cough... Kepler). He's a 1st basemen with a promising bat. Always a half dozen guys out there that can play passable 1b and hit enough to be worth a spot. It's painful to miss out on another first rounder, and they can ill afford to keep doing that, but it's a sunk cost. If he was an up the middle player or someone they were banking on fronting a rotation, this would be harder to swallow. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say "the next few weeks." You said "the majority of the season." The season is 6+ months long. If he's in the minors for over 3 months for any reason he's no longer a top end prospect, and they'd move beyond him in their plans. Nobody said they'd cut him, but he wouldn't be part of their future plans in terms of having a spot on the 26-man roster locked up for 2024. If he's 26 and doesn't have a spot on the 26-man locked up he's just another guy in the system. Like Garlick for example. Or Cave before him. They didn't just completely get rid of Garlick, but he isn't part of their team building plans beyond being a depth piece.

This is 100% a make or break year for Kirilloff. If he can't establish himself as a legit major leaguer this year he's just a depth piece and they won't have him as part of their future plans. Him spending "the majority of the season" in AAA would be an absolute disaster for him. Whether it's because of his wrist or his performance. Doesn't matter. Same with Larnach, Gordon, etc. If they don't establish themselves this year they're done as possible pieces of the future core when it comes to team planning. If any of these guys are spending most of the season in AAA it's a sign they aren't who they expected them to be and it's time to move them down the pecking order and look for upgrades.

You said if he is in the minors in July he is basically out.  I disagree with that premise.  I don't believe a strong decision will be made on him until the end of the year.   That includes giving him a wide berth in AAA this season if needed.

This could all be moot it he smashes, but the Twins have never been a club to churn through prospects.

We may just have to disagree here.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

5 minutes ago, I wish the twins were good said:

We may just be watching a prospect in the process of not panning out. I think they can work around it. Doesn't need to be a disaster unless they try and force a non-performing player onto the roster (cough cough... Kepler). He's a 1st basemen with a promising bat. Always a half dozen guys out there that can play passable 1b and hit enough to be worth a spot. It's painful to miss out on another first rounder, and they can ill afford to keep doing that, but it's a sunk cost. If he was an up the middle player or someone they were banking on fronting a rotation, this would be harder to swallow. 

I agree, this may be the case.  The point I am have been trying to make is I think the proverbial leash on him is longer than other posters in this thread would give him.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

You said if he is in the minors in July he is basically out.  I disagree with that premise.  I don't believe a strong decision will be made on him until the end of the year.   That includes giving him a wide berth in AAA this season if needed.

This could all be moot it he smashes, but the Twins have never been a club to churn through prospects.

We may just have to disagree here.

Yes, because if his wrist is still a problem in July there's no reason to think it'll ever not be a problem. He got the all clear. His wrist is physically as good as it's going to get in terms of surgery recovery (according to what him and the team have said). There's no reason he should need another 3+ months for his wrist.

If he can't perform well enough between now and July to earn a spot in this awful offense there's no reason to think he'll be able to. Again, I've never said a "strong decision" like cutting him would be made in July. They aren't just going to cut him. But if it's the middle of June and he isn't hitting well enough to be in the majors he simply isn't the player we all want(ed) him to be. A player of that caliber simply doesn't need months and months of games to get his hitting down.

He's already debuted. He's not 20 year old ERod still trying to earn promotions. The question with Kirilloff is whether or not he can get back to who he was. If it takes until July for him to earn a promotion he'll have been passed over. A 25 year old, already debuted, top end prospect doesn't take until July to get up to speed. He's no longer a high end prospect if he needs 3+ months to show he's a good player at this point of his career.

[mickster]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I would expect the cuts in this order:

1. Julien
2. Gordon
3. Castro
4. Larnach (I would love to see him start to produce, but...)
5. Kepler (I think they just can't let him go and no one else wants to trade for him.

If they reinstate Gallo, then I think you see Garlick head down.   I would love to cut ties with the overrated Gordon, but right now someone would claim him.    Gallo will then see time in LF as well as 1b, with Larnach going RF/LF.    When Polanco comes up then we will see who survives between Gordon and Castro.   Hopefully we can trade Gordon for a low level prospect as by mid season we have see both Lewis and Lee and then Castro is gone as well.   Donny bats needs to stay.

[umterp23]

Gallo Activated and Garlick back to Saints.  

 

[GNess]

Kirilloff has hit decently in his two albeit brief, wrist injury plagued seasons in MLB. He has at times absolutely raked in the minors, including AAA.

If the wrist holds up - he will be back on the Twins soon imho. He has the look of a hitter too...

[jmlease1]

Julien probably goes back down first, he's got an option and need to play every day.

Castro goes down when Polanco comes back.

Garlick is probably the next to be dropped; with his contract he will likely slide through and can come off the 40-man again, and I don't see him sticking unless Larnach is still slumping.

With no options, Gordon gets more rope, same with Kepler. Twins fans need to get right with the idea that teams simply won't toss away an asset for nothing unless they have no other choice.

Looking forward to having Kirilloff back on the squad, I'm a huge fan of his ability at the plate. Any time his wrist has been ok he's stung the ball, and hopefully his Kirk Gibson operation has fixed it for him.

[I wish the twins were good]

54 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I agree, this may be the case.  The point I am have been trying to make is I think the proverbial leash on him is longer than other posters in this thread would give him.  

This lineup isn't the only thing striking out at an incredible rate. 16 first round picks between 2010-2020 and they completely whiffed on all but Buxton, Berrios, and Gordon(?). Jury still out on a few others (Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach). That's a big problem.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 minute ago, I wish the twins were good said:

This lineup isn't the only thing striking out at an incredible rate. 16 first round picks between 2010-2020 and they completely whiffed on all but Buxton, Berrios, and Gordon(?). Jury still out on a few others (Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach). That's a big problem.

Agreed, but I think some context is warranted.

Kirilloff and Lewis need to be viewed a little differently due to injuries.

I know there are studies out there somewhere, but it would be interesting to see an updated report on how the Twins match up against all of baseball on recent draft success.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

The opponents lose out, i hope.

[Doctor Gast]

Gallo-> Garlic

Polanco-> Julien

Farmer-> Castro

Kiriloff-> Larnach because he still has an option & has been slumping

Lewis-> ?

Gordon didn't have a future playing playing INF coming up. They switched him to the OF & he blossomed both def. & off. Now they want to return him to the INF which he returned to his old self. They should keep him in the OF & see if he can shake it off. I'd keep him as long as possible for OF sake.

Kepler nobody wanted to give anything for him this off season. He had a good ST, I was hoping he'd continue it into the season (he did not). I still hope he can turn it around so we can get someone worth something. He'll be gone one way or another, sooner or later.

Gallo he could hit a bunch of HRs & RBIs and has shown his flexibilty at the corners, plus he still has some hype. But can he get a hit when we need it? or will he SO? Despite any of this, he's not going anywhere because  Levine & Tingler are in love with him.

Farmer & Solano are steady, flexible and are needed in some kind of role. 

IMO Lewis, Polanco or Kiriloff shouldn't be rushed up until they are tearing up AAA. Plus any injury would delay these decisions.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, I wish the twins were good said:

This lineup isn't the only thing striking out at an incredible rate. 16 first round picks between 2010-2020 and they completely whiffed on all but Buxton, Berrios, and Gordon(?). Jury still out on a few others (Kirilloff, Lewis, Larnach). That's a big problem.

That's a long list of the previous FO picks.......

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Agreed, but I think some context is warranted.

Kirilloff and Lewis need to be viewed a little differently due to injuries.

I know there are studies out there somewhere, but it would be interesting to see an updated report on how the Twins match up against all of baseball on recent draft success.

In terms of simply developing MLB players this FO is above average. In terms of developing stars they have room for improvement. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but only 66% of 1st round picks even make the majors, let alone succeed there. This FO has had well above average number players reach the majors (Brent Rooker for example), but haven't been able to produce stars (health being an obvious concern for at least 2 of their best posibilities).

It's why they need Correa and Buxton to be the stars they expect them to be. They can fill the periphery of their roster with homegrown guys, but until Kirilloff, Miranda, Lewis, whoever can establish themselves as a cheap, homegrown star they're going to have a "compete for the central" ceiling on this club.

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

The opponents lose out, i hope.

Probably the most sensible post in the thread.

[Major League Ready]

The good news is that only in a relatively best case scenario will these decisions be difficult, and we cut ties with some good players.  Most likely case scenario it sorts itself out.  Would love to see Larnach / Lewis / Julien and maybe even Martin force Gallo / Solano / Taylor and even Farmer out.  That's a problem I would love to have.