REPORT: Twins Working to Acquire Padres RHP Chris Paddack

[Nick Nelson]

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins are on the verge of acquiring San Diego Padres starter Chris Paddack.

The 26-year-old would bring a controllable arm with upside to the needy Minnesota rotation. 

Although Derek Falvey had suggested that the team was ready to roll with its existing group of starters, fans know better than to take such remarks at face value. On the eve of (postponed) Opening Day, the Twins look to be adding an intriguing asset in Paddack, who was a top prospect turned outstanding big-league starter not so long ago.

Details are scant at this point, but Rosenthal reports that the Twins are "working to acquire" the right-hander, who was known to be available after the Padres traded for A's starter Sean Manaea (thought to be another Twins target) last weekend. 

That language does not suggest any finality, but Rosenthal is not the type to report something like this on a whim. It's likely a deal is about to materialize.

Of note: Trevor Larnach was pulled from the St. Paul Saints lineup just ahead of game time tonight.

Paddack was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of 2019, and arrived in the majors that year with a bang, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.4 fWAR over 26 starts (140 innings) for the Padres. 

He struggled a bit in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts, and last year was rough – at least according to his 5.07 ERA. But his 3.78 FIP and 3.87 xFIP suggest a good amount of bad luck was at play. He kept the homers in check, kept his velocity steady (averaging 95 MPH with the fastball), and maintained his excellent control.

With a few tweaks, the Twins could get Paddack back on track as a strong #2/3 type starter, and he's under team control for three more seasons. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year – which new Minnesota bench coach Jayce Tingler saw play out first-hand as Padres manager. This would be a big get.

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[howeda7]

Skimming his baseball reference #'s, it's not that inspiring though he had a huge ERA/FIP gap last year. Is there something more there?

Also, who exits the rotation or do we go 6 starters until someone pitches their way out of it?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Got to see all the details before I can say "Wow".

[gunnarthor]

Larnich for Paddack + something else makes some sense. Paddack was a good prospect but has been iffy in the majors. Not sure I like a pitcher who struggled in SD coming to TF but ...

He's a bit hitable but his walks and k rate are good.

[Muppet]

He has pretty good numbers until 2021. But I’m not convinced he can get his old form back on a team that is notable for making newly acquired decent pitchers perform poorly. It’s also the same team where poor performing pitchers, once departed, suddenly perform exceptionally well on their new teams.

[Azviking101]

Paddack was a massive prospect with some of the best minor league numbers I've seen from a young pitcher.

Padres have had how many coaching changes the last few years? Dude needs a reset. Love it, as long as the haul isn't massive. It can't be, right?

Also had a 3.78 FIP last year

[lecroy24fan]

Just now, Azviking101 said:

Paddack was a massive prospect with some of the best minor league numbers I've seen from a young pitcher.

Padres have had how many coaching changes the last few years? Dude needs a reset. Love it, as long as the haul isn't massive. It can't be, right?

His manager last year happens to be the Twins bench coach.

[Azviking101]

1 minute ago, lecroy24fan said:

His manager last year happens to be the Twins bench coach.

I forgot about that also. Larnach was removed from the lineup today so assuming he's going. Might be other players involved on both sides though

[tony&rodney]

Oh dear.

[Otto von Ballpark]

13 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Larnich for Paddack + something else makes some sense. Paddack was a good prospect but has been iffy in the majors. Not sure I like a pitcher who struggled in SD coming to TF but ...

He's a bit hitable but his walks and k rate are good.

Paddack would be a bit of a project for sure, but talent is there. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Padres failed to maximize that talent.

Edit: actually Paddack's K rates haven't been that impressive.

His K% has decline from 26.9 to 23.7 to 21.6 the last 3 years.

League K% has gone 23.0 to 23.4 to 23.2 those same years.

[cHawk]

Paddack had a good rookie season in 2019 but a rough 2020-2021.

I like the trade, though. He’s young as you said and I could see him improving in MN.

[prouster]

12 minutes ago, Muppet said:

He has pretty good numbers until 2021. But I’m not convinced he can get his old form back on a team that is notable for making newly acquired decent pitchers perform poorly. It’s also the same team where poor performing pitchers, once departed, suddenly perform exceptionally well on their new teams.

Well, I disagree that the twins have a (recent) history of causing new pitchers to under-perform. Odorizzi is the obvious counterexample. Joe Ryan is looking like one, too. 
 

On its face, a trade for Paddack seems like a solid move. He’s still young and has a few years of control, and there’s still plenty of upside. It’ll depend on what they give up.

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, prouster said:

Well, I disagree that the twins have a (recent) history of causing new pitchers to under-perform. Odorizzi is the obvious counterexample. Joe Ryan is looking like one, too. 
 

On its face, a trade for Paddock seems like a solid move. He’s still young and has a few years of control, and there’s still plenty of upside. It’ll depend on what they give up.

Berrios was pretty good here, as was Pineda....

[twinkiesfan11]

[Brandon]

he doesn't walk much.  close to 1k per inning.  last year had HR's in check vs the other 2 years.  ut he is giving up more hits.  Still it looks like he gave up runs in bunches looking at his whip and with pitching back to the mean his era should drop.  if we just give up Larnarch for him that works for me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Padres beat writer mentions interest in Taylor Rogers, so who knows what may develop here (if anything):

 

 

[Nashvilletwin]

What about all this pitching depth we are supposed to have? What about all the prospects knocking on the door?

We have less outfield depth than we all might think - BB gets hurt and Max is about average (below average hitter). At the moment we are hurting in LF given Kiriloff should be a 1B.

Hopefully they send us a catcher. Maybe we can throw in Sanchez. 

[PseudoSABR]

5 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Padres beat writer mentions interest in Taylor Rogers, so who knows what may develop here (if anything):

 

 

They can be interested all they want but they can't have Rodgers.  That would seriously hamper the bullpen, with only making the starting pitching marginally better.  That said, it is three years of control verse one.

[baul0010]

I'd be leary about giving up Larnach.  I have a feeling he's going to be a very good hitter.  You have to give up talent to get it.  if Celestino develops, he'll need an outfield home too.  That could soften the blow of losing Larnach.

[garn from vancouver]

i don't know much but i do know i like larnach. and i like rogers...

[Squirrel]

8 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Padres beat writer mentions interest in Taylor Rogers, so who knows what may develop here (if anything):

 

 

That's a one big ... oh HECK no!

[Azviking101]

Now what's going on? Twins have to know trading Rodgers for Paddock would be very very bad. I get the Padres want major league talent but Rogers is the glue on an otherwise sad looking bullpen

[twins_89]

Trading Rogers would be a tough move. The Twins are already really thin on left handed relievers and guys you would be comfortable pitching in the 8th-9th inning. 

[wsnydes]

1 minute ago, baul0010 said:

I'd be leary about giving up Larnach.  I have a feeling he's going to be a very good hitter.  You have to give up talent to get it.  if Celestino develops, he'll need an outfield home too.  That could soften the blow of losing Larnach.

They have plenty of options to fill in for Larnach.  And they could even get someone in return to fill that somewhat immediate need.

[Ryan_K]

I am thinking a Paddack and Gore for Larnach, Rogers may be in play.

[howeda7]

Trading Rogers while claiming you're trying to make the play-offs is a joke. This bullpen is marginal as it is.

[Vanimal46]

I was on board with this until Rogers got involved in negotiations. That will make the bullpen a big weakness. I’m not sure Alcala is ready to be a closer. 

[ashbury]

Paddack missed time last year because of an elbow injury, according to MLBTR.  I hope the Twins FO and medical staff are diligently exercising all due due-diligence that is due.

[PseudoSABR]

4 minutes ago, Ryan_K said:

I am thinking a Paddack and Gore for Larnach, Rogers may be in play.

If they get Gore in addition, I'm on board.