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Ryan_K

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Everything posted by Ryan_K

  1. Sign all three plus Joe Kelly. I think trying to do what the Royals had with HDH during their World Series years is a good approach.
  2. he's intriguing. more so for his post playing career. I remember an article saying after he is done playing he would like to be a GM, so he could be an hier to Thad
  3. I agree a rebuild is a waste of talented players. Are we WS contenders no, but with a reset and an eye towards 2023 WS contenders I could see us making a bid for a WC spot this year with health and some luck
  4. I agree that we need pitching, but if the FO didn't pursue relatively affordable FA SP I have a hard time seeing them trading a young core member. Besides Buxton, Luis is the most entertaining player IMO. I honestly don't think even trading for a SP would make the Twins competitive, there is too much uncertainty. Now we could trade for multiple pitchers, but that won't let us see what the minor league guys have and the pitching pipeline is probably the key deliverable the Pohlads will judge the FO success. I'd possible I'd trade Miranda if the return could be similar
  5. I disagree. Baseball is a business and the objective isn't to win games, but to keep the fan base engaged for the whole of 162. A disengaged fan base will hurt potential streaming and other advertising ventures. I like prospects too, but what are the odds they can replicate his BA and OBP. As for defense, I think he has been good since he doesn't get to focus on one position. I'd keep him unless somehow you could get a Julio Urias for him.
  6. I'd keep him. If he got good marks in CF, then we might have our own Alex Gordon for the next half decade by putting him in LF. That's a good return for 8 months of Jose.
  7. The thought process I wanted to take a second chance at building an offseason blue print now that the 40 man roster has been set, and a number of previously desired FA option are now longer available. I could see two different paths that I will discuss below. The first option makes us a World Series Contender, while the second is more of building a sustainable contender with needing some luck. The main fork in the road hinges on where the Twins believe Royce Lewis is on recovery and his trajectory. I will defer to their judgement on if he can be an average or better MLB starting SS on a playoff team. If they think his injury could cause him to loose a step not be as agile, then option #1 is the one to go with. However, if they think he can be the Twins Jeter for many seasons, than that will open the flexibility provided by option two. I will discuss option two in a subsequent post as I don't want this to be too long winded. Option #1 "2019-2020 Offseason Strategy 2.0" - strikeout on top tier pitchers and pivot to an offensive juggernaut Option #2 "Spread the wealth" Option #1 Run to Correa For option #1, this centers on signing Carlos Correa. To use my Spanish, Corre a Correa = Run to Correa. I would think he would need a 10 year $350 mm deal to sign here. My thought is you can't waste Buxton's prime and what better way to capitalize than having the first two picks of the 2012 draft together. In addition, I think there is a need for some quality pitching to make use of this potential lineup--dream on it for a second. LF Arraez 2B Polanco CF Byron Buxton SS Carlos Correa 3B Donaldson C Garver 1B Kirilloff DH Sano RF Kepler There is no reprieve for the opposing team. If Kirilloff, Sano, and Kepler are the worst hitters on your team, good things will happen. Supplement the core with strong SPs The pitching additions would be on the trade front. Using MLB Trade Values, I composed a swap of Chris Bassitt in exchange for Dobnak, Duran, and Rodriguez + $1.2mm to buy out Dobnak's options. The A's get a borderline top 100 arm depending on the prospect site, Dobnak is a steal as a #4 SP when healthy and his contract makes him appealing, while Rodriguez is a good upside lottery ticket. Bassitt is going to be 33, so his next contract would be starting in his age 34 season limiting the potential number of years should the twins want an extension, plus we will get draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere and our pick would be higher than the A's since we are recipients of revenue sharing. The second trade is with the Reds getting Sonny Gray for Larnach, Strotman, Steer, and De Andrade. Gray is 32 for all of next year and has an option for 2023. The Reds get back two lottery tickets, a former top prospect, and a SP who may have interesting stuff. With both these teams, getting rid of salary is a big factor. A's let Melvin go, and the Red's didn't get much for Iglesias. Proposal & Business Case To accomplish option one, the sacrifice is using rookies for the bench and bullpen, and needing a $10mm payroll increase. However, it gets a legendary lineup, two TOR SP, and leaves room for our prospects this year and going into next with players who likely won't command long term deals. The other big reason for the added star power is according to an old Pioneer Press report from 2016, the Twins current deal expires in 2023. The Twins should want to be at the negotiating table with the leverage of having a great product and to help increase their $40mm in TV revenue to that of other mid sized markets This approach I feels strongly resembles the 2019-2020 offseason where we didn't land a single big name pitcher and moved to strengthen a strength. This does that as well as upgrades the defense for the long term with the only top prospects surrendered being Duran and Larnach. Celestino showed well in AAA after being sent down and could play all three spots. Imagine a late inning defense of Celestino, Buxton, and Kepler--we are transported back to the days of nothing falls but raindrop days. Miranda would get time at 2B, 3B, and LF and a similar approach would be used for Arraez. I think Correa is the only FA worth spending on as he is only 27 and plays elite defense. Story is more average defense and good bat, Castellanos & Bryant are great hitters, but we don't need more corner types. Bassitt could return or leave depending on how the Twins SP prospects develop, and if one starts dominating like an 06 Liriano then Bundy, Ober, or Ryan could move to the pen. Gray provides that second top of the rotation arm critical in playoff series, and I think they would be great role models for the young pitchers coming up. I would encourage people to look at the Baseball Savant profiles of both Gray and Bassitt, they seem much more desirable than traditional big names and MLB Trade Values doesn't have them costing a lot Wrap up I say this is my favorite of my two options, because of the lineup this gives, keeps most of the tier 1 prospects, the potential drawing power in TV/Subscription negotiations, and still allows the young SP pipeline to be active if they show they are ready, while still giving the fans a chance at a World Series, if we can approve an additional $13mm dollars. I would welcome feedback and thoughts as I work on finalizing Part 2. I will say it is less exciting on a brand name basis, but I think the moves may be interesting It raises the floor, but without as much ceiling as this option. My previous entry was here https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/53986-offseason-blueprint-reinvest-restructure-retry/#comment-1084460, and with hindsight $13mm extra plus a few good prospects gets a world a difference. Thank you and enjoy
  8. I think this would be great. Plus we can QO both Rodon and Bassitt after the season. I just hope we don't give up pitching prospects and do a bulk prospects like how San Diego has done. It is also a good point there are only so many year with BB having speed with the power.
  9. I'm working on a revised blueprint and will post once non tenders and the CBA is resolved. But I have the idea of packaging Elvis Andrus with one of the Oak SP to reduce cost.
  10. My main reason for not adding multiple controllable SP is I didn't want to block the prospects from being a factor in 2023 I'm figuring two out of group: SWR, Balzy, Duran, Winder, Caterino, Varland can be factors. I think a 1 in three yield is reasonable. Manea doesn't have a great baseball savant profile, and the hypothetical prices on Sonny Gray let alone Castillo, Alcantara, or German from the Rockies figured to be three top players I.e. Royce, Martin, and SWR to me that is too high for only two years. The Central has good teams now Tigers, Royals, WS. I think this gives us a 20 percent chance this year, but has payroll and roster flexibility for 2023 thru 2025. If the guys SP prospects don't step up this year in the minors, with Segura and Sano off the books next year that is 25mm for a SP like Jose Berrios or a similar top arm. I do agree this team is not a sure fire contender. If the payroll can be bumped up, I would look at a 1 year deal for a former star Kluber, Paxton, Verlander. Heck Rodon on a 1 year, would be ideal but the upper end on his pillow contract was 20 mm. He would be the target if ownership would greenlight the extra 20mm. Thank you for the feedback, this is making me think a bit.
  11. Good call-out, I would actually let Winder and Balzy duke it out in spring training, so ERod, Ryan, Ober, Pineda, rookie. I don't know if this team will win, but think it is an easy 500 record, and if the team is hanging close we can acquire pieces at the deadline. I'd replace Cotton with Bednar, but think Bednar would be a set-up type arm.
  12. Long time fan first time poster. In making this offseason blueprint, I sourced ideas from TwinsDaily offseason handbook, MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball Savant, Fangraphs, a number of previous offseason blueprints, and leveraged MLB Trade Values for some inspiration. My strategy focuses on reinvest, restructure, and retry. For the reinvest, it means putting the cash to use with the belief that the team can be a contender like it was in 2019 & 2020. But this is not just an eye on 2022, but over the next 5 year window which aligns where we still have core pieces being joined by top prospects. One note is, that the trade price for any top SP was very high, and with the chance that we may not be good next year, i didn't think it was a good use of prospects to get a 1 year rental or even a 2 year option just because of how many pieces we would have to give up. My first step in the reinvest is to extend Buxton. It was previously reported that there was a framework of $80mm over 7 years. In my plan, I recommend a base salary of $12mm with a range of incentives. I modeled it giving Byron an additional $8mm for playing in 120 games, or a yearly rate of $20mm. I think there could be further incentives that could scale to paying another $8mm should he play in 150 games. While this would exceed the "remain even" payroll scenario I have planned, the Twins would generate enough of an on and off the field impact to pay that much. The second part in the reinvest is to bring in a controllable pitcher. One thing stood out to me when looking at our prospects - there is no LH SP. To compound this issue, the 2022-2023 FA class also lacks this element, so I felt it was critical to solve it this offseason. To solve this I identified three solutions, one who was recently taken Andrew Heaney, ERod, and Alex Wood. ERod and Wood have good swing and miss stuff, but the upside of ERod and his Stat cast number makes me think he is the right investment. He throws decently hard for a LH SP, limits hard contact, and has quality swing and miss type stuff. The community had a wide opinion on his contract, so I went with the high end and signed him for 5 years at $16mm per ($80mm.) To me, he is like Jose a borderline #1 but more #2 type guy; plus he has had to face the Yankees and the rest of the AL East so he is battle tested. To round out the reinvest part, I resigned Michael Pineda for $9.5mm - he is a solid middle or back of the rotation arm that could be had for a 1 year deal and is well liked, so if a prospect is doing well, he would move to the Pen. I also signed Mchugh for 2 years $6mm. Looking through Fangraphs on k-bb% he is among the leaders. Transitioning to the restructure part of the offseason, this is focused on the infield, bullpen, and 40 man roster maintenance. For the infield, I borrowed the idea of acquiring Jean Segura; however, I get him in a three team trade with the Phillies and Blue Jays. This trade actually solves needs for all teams involved. The Blue Jays had poor production from third last year and would love Josh back. They get rid of Grichuk who doesn't cleanly fit in with his contract, but he would be a big help to Philly as they were near dead last in production from both CF and LF. Using MLB Trade Values as a model each team gets what it needs: Twins SS (yes he hasn't played there in a year, but he played it well before; Blue Jays get a good player back. From a salary perspective Grichuk is making $10mm while Josh is $23mm, but the $7mm from the twins can be used for the 2024 buyout. I actually modeled it as $2mm would be for this year. The Phillies unload Segura who is making $14.85mm + $1mm and pick up Grichuk and his $10mm, and would receive $8mm from the Twins this year, meaning $13.85mm is freed up for them to pursue their SS mega signing. This move frees up future payroll space for the twins beyond the 2022 season meaning if there is another season of injuries to our SP prospects we can supplement in the winter of 2022 i.e. Berrios. I move Sano to DH, put Alex at first, and bring up Miranda to compete with Luis for the every day 3rd base, but both will play around the diamond. The restructured bullpen also comes with the 40 man roster considerations. The immediate locks are Rogers, Duffy, Alcala, Thielbar, McHugh, and Coulombe (surprisingly he is on the first two pages for RP who pitched more than 30 innings and had a good k-bb%, and a decent stat case too. The next bit is a trade Padres style giving up bulk, but not premium for a great controllable reliever, who I am willing to bet most haven't heard of David Bednar + Sam Howard (who also has good stuff, but a slight control issue.) Why it makes snese for the other teams. Reds need cost controlled talent at SP which they get with Barnes, Maciel is a good OF prospect, and Rooker would be fun in that ballpark. Pirates get a number of prospects, and an affordable rotation hometown kid in Dobnak (the cash is for Dobnak's buyout) David is controllable through the 2026 season and is elite. He provides good insurance if Duff and Rogers leave next year. The following would be the Twins. Of note, 2 spots in the pen would be kept for the prospects to cycle through, so that there is always fresh arms. In addition to the FA and trades (Sam Howard has 2 option years left), I would add Vallimont, as I think a team would take him and use him in the pen+ Lewis, Miranda, Enlow, Winder, and Sands; and the 60 IL which brings us to 45 people for 40 spots. For those 5 spots, I would cut Garlick, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Garza Jr,, Minaya, The other member of the 40 man not listed above include: Celestino, Baly, Rortvedt, Cotton, Duran, Jax, Strotman, Stashak. Please let me know your thoughts on the approach. I truly think one of Winder or Balzy could contribute out of the gate towards the rear of the rotation, and believe Lewis will be ready so that Segura's money is off the books in 1 year. I hope this makes us competitive, but keeps the top shelf prospects to fill out the future years of the window. Thank you Twins Daily for providing such a cool platform, and the best content and analysis that there is on the MN Twins.
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