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Ryan_K

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  1. I say get Niko Goodrum for SS and if Royce ends up being ready, then we got a good utility guy with speed.
  2. I think it shouldn't be viewed as two lost year. Rather two years spent differently. One of the biggest issues was his swing, instead of meaningless minor league games he got an entire season of coaching and training by the staff to sort it out without distractions. The ACL hurt, but that doesn't mean he didn't chat with Simmons about how he preps, maybe he learned Spanish to help communicate, and there is VR to help with pitch recognition out of the hand. What I am trying to say is, the kid didn't spend the last two years playing X Box, he had the opportunity to train in ways other players simply don't have the time for and that can make him a long term impact player. Good luck Royce
  3. I'm a big fan of him, but his own words about how rare of an injury this is for baseball players makes me concerned. Teams can build models for TJ given the large sample size, but with this there are a lack of comparables.
  4. Sign all three plus Joe Kelly. I think trying to do what the Royals had with HDH during their World Series years is a good approach.
  5. he's intriguing. more so for his post playing career. I remember an article saying after he is done playing he would like to be a GM, so he could be an hier to Thad
  6. I agree a rebuild is a waste of talented players. Are we WS contenders no, but with a reset and an eye towards 2023 WS contenders I could see us making a bid for a WC spot this year with health and some luck
  7. I agree that we need pitching, but if the FO didn't pursue relatively affordable FA SP I have a hard time seeing them trading a young core member. Besides Buxton, Luis is the most entertaining player IMO. I honestly don't think even trading for a SP would make the Twins competitive, there is too much uncertainty. Now we could trade for multiple pitchers, but that won't let us see what the minor league guys have and the pitching pipeline is probably the key deliverable the Pohlads will judge the FO success. I'd possible I'd trade Miranda if the return could be similar
  8. I disagree. Baseball is a business and the objective isn't to win games, but to keep the fan base engaged for the whole of 162. A disengaged fan base will hurt potential streaming and other advertising ventures. I like prospects too, but what are the odds they can replicate his BA and OBP. As for defense, I think he has been good since he doesn't get to focus on one position. I'd keep him unless somehow you could get a Julio Urias for him.
  9. I'd keep him. If he got good marks in CF, then we might have our own Alex Gordon for the next half decade by putting him in LF. That's a good return for 8 months of Jose.
  10. The thought process I wanted to take a second chance at building an offseason blue print now that the 40 man roster has been set, and a number of previously desired FA option are now longer available. I could see two different paths that I will discuss below. The first option makes us a World Series Contender, while the second is more of building a sustainable contender with needing some luck. The main fork in the road hinges on where the Twins believe Royce Lewis is on recovery and his trajectory. I will defer to their judgement on if he can be an average or better MLB starting SS on a playoff team. If they think his injury could cause him to loose a step not be as agile, then option #1 is the one to go with. However, if they think he can be the Twins Jeter for many seasons, than that will open the flexibility provided by option two. I will discuss option two in a subsequent post as I don't want this to be too long winded. Option #1 "2019-2020 Offseason Strategy 2.0" - strikeout on top tier pitchers and pivot to an offensive juggernaut Option #2 "Spread the wealth" Option #1 Run to Correa For option #1, this centers on signing Carlos Correa. To use my Spanish, Corre a Correa = Run to Correa. I would think he would need a 10 year $350 mm deal to sign here. My thought is you can't waste Buxton's prime and what better way to capitalize than having the first two picks of the 2012 draft together. In addition, I think there is a need for some quality pitching to make use of this potential lineup--dream on it for a second. LF Arraez 2B Polanco CF Byron Buxton SS Carlos Correa 3B Donaldson C Garver 1B Kirilloff DH Sano RF Kepler There is no reprieve for the opposing team. If Kirilloff, Sano, and Kepler are the worst hitters on your team, good things will happen. Supplement the core with strong SPs The pitching additions would be on the trade front. Using MLB Trade Values, I composed a swap of Chris Bassitt in exchange for Dobnak, Duran, and Rodriguez + $1.2mm to buy out Dobnak's options. The A's get a borderline top 100 arm depending on the prospect site, Dobnak is a steal as a #4 SP when healthy and his contract makes him appealing, while Rodriguez is a good upside lottery ticket. Bassitt is going to be 33, so his next contract would be starting in his age 34 season limiting the potential number of years should the twins want an extension, plus we will get draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere and our pick would be higher than the A's since we are recipients of revenue sharing. The second trade is with the Reds getting Sonny Gray for Larnach, Strotman, Steer, and De Andrade. Gray is 32 for all of next year and has an option for 2023. The Reds get back two lottery tickets, a former top prospect, and a SP who may have interesting stuff. With both these teams, getting rid of salary is a big factor. A's let Melvin go, and the Red's didn't get much for Iglesias. Proposal & Business Case To accomplish option one, the sacrifice is using rookies for the bench and bullpen, and needing a $10mm payroll increase. However, it gets a legendary lineup, two TOR SP, and leaves room for our prospects this year and going into next with players who likely won't command long term deals. The other big reason for the added star power is according to an old Pioneer Press report from 2016, the Twins current deal expires in 2023. The Twins should want to be at the negotiating table with the leverage of having a great product and to help increase their $40mm in TV revenue to that of other mid sized markets This approach I feels strongly resembles the 2019-2020 offseason where we didn't land a single big name pitcher and moved to strengthen a strength. This does that as well as upgrades the defense for the long term with the only top prospects surrendered being Duran and Larnach. Celestino showed well in AAA after being sent down and could play all three spots. Imagine a late inning defense of Celestino, Buxton, and Kepler--we are transported back to the days of nothing falls but raindrop days. Miranda would get time at 2B, 3B, and LF and a similar approach would be used for Arraez. I think Correa is the only FA worth spending on as he is only 27 and plays elite defense. Story is more average defense and good bat, Castellanos & Bryant are great hitters, but we don't need more corner types. Bassitt could return or leave depending on how the Twins SP prospects develop, and if one starts dominating like an 06 Liriano then Bundy, Ober, or Ryan could move to the pen. Gray provides that second top of the rotation arm critical in playoff series, and I think they would be great role models for the young pitchers coming up. I would encourage people to look at the Baseball Savant profiles of both Gray and Bassitt, they seem much more desirable than traditional big names and MLB Trade Values doesn't have them costing a lot Wrap up I say this is my favorite of my two options, because of the lineup this gives, keeps most of the tier 1 prospects, the potential drawing power in TV/Subscription negotiations, and still allows the young SP pipeline to be active if they show they are ready, while still giving the fans a chance at a World Series, if we can approve an additional $13mm dollars. I would welcome feedback and thoughts as I work on finalizing Part 2. I will say it is less exciting on a brand name basis, but I think the moves may be interesting It raises the floor, but without as much ceiling as this option. My previous entry was here https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/53986-offseason-blueprint-reinvest-restructure-retry/#comment-1084460, and with hindsight $13mm extra plus a few good prospects gets a world a difference. Thank you and enjoy
  11. I think this would be great. Plus we can QO both Rodon and Bassitt after the season. I just hope we don't give up pitching prospects and do a bulk prospects like how San Diego has done. It is also a good point there are only so many year with BB having speed with the power.
  12. I'm working on a revised blueprint and will post once non tenders and the CBA is resolved. But I have the idea of packaging Elvis Andrus with one of the Oak SP to reduce cost.
  13. My main reason for not adding multiple controllable SP is I didn't want to block the prospects from being a factor in 2023 I'm figuring two out of group: SWR, Balzy, Duran, Winder, Caterino, Varland can be factors. I think a 1 in three yield is reasonable. Manea doesn't have a great baseball savant profile, and the hypothetical prices on Sonny Gray let alone Castillo, Alcantara, or German from the Rockies figured to be three top players I.e. Royce, Martin, and SWR to me that is too high for only two years. The Central has good teams now Tigers, Royals, WS. I think this gives us a 20 percent chance this year, but has payroll and roster flexibility for 2023 thru 2025. If the guys SP prospects don't step up this year in the minors, with Segura and Sano off the books next year that is 25mm for a SP like Jose Berrios or a similar top arm. I do agree this team is not a sure fire contender. If the payroll can be bumped up, I would look at a 1 year deal for a former star Kluber, Paxton, Verlander. Heck Rodon on a 1 year, would be ideal but the upper end on his pillow contract was 20 mm. He would be the target if ownership would greenlight the extra 20mm. Thank you for the feedback, this is making me think a bit.
  14. Good call-out, I would actually let Winder and Balzy duke it out in spring training, so ERod, Ryan, Ober, Pineda, rookie. I don't know if this team will win, but think it is an easy 500 record, and if the team is hanging close we can acquire pieces at the deadline. I'd replace Cotton with Bednar, but think Bednar would be a set-up type arm.
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