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Everything posted by prouster

  1. After sleeping on it, I like this pick even more. I was of course happy when they picked him, though part of me wanted Parada. I think the main thing is that I didn’t really research Lee at all, assuming there was no chance he’d fall out of the top five picks. Simply put, I love his offensive profile. In this brave new world of extreme K rates, I think it’s critical to load up on guys who don’t strike out. That’s Lee. I also think there’s a solid chance he has untapped power. His swing is already very sound from a mechanical standpoint. I think if he adds bulk, there’s 30 homer potential there. In my opinion, Lee is Falvine’s best first round pick to date. I guess it helps when the player falls into your lap.
  2. Wow. I’m not sure the draft could have gone any better than it did tonight. A couple of great picks.
  3. How old do you think most college guys are when they get drafted?
  4. I’ve got my personal preferences, but as always I hope whoever they take turns into a Hall of Famer.
  5. If Green is available and the Twins pass, I’m gonna have some feelings, lol.
  6. I know this is said partially in jest, but it seems to indicate that we’re looking at some pretty small sample sizes here.
  7. I’m hoping they take someone up the middle, preferably a catcher, shortstop, or pitcher. If Johnson or Collier are there at 8 (one of them might be, both won’t), then Falvey has to go running to the podium. If the top infielders and Parada are all gone, then I hope they take either Neto or one of the pitchers coming off injury. Cross would be a reasonable pick, but I think there’s more upside at some higher value positions that should still be there. With Berry, my concern is that the bat doesn’t develop as hoped and he becomes Seth Beer—a DH that can’t H.
  8. I see. That makes sense. I wonder if they’re pushing the high leverage guys a little more since the break is coming up soon.
  9. So now Rocco is using the good relievers too much? I don’t think anyone needs a buildup period to go from throwing one inning to throwing two. Seems like you’d want Jax to pitch longer when he can.
  10. Seems to me your argument is essentially that the age+level is irrelevant to how teams operate, which is not the case whatsoever. The linked article, as I mentioned, argues that age by itself doesn’t mean much, but that a younger player performing well at a higher MiLB level means more than an older one doing the same. So does a prospect being 18 mean anything? No, not in itself. But if that player is holding his own at AA hall, then that’s a pretty big deal. You distinctly said this is something people make up on fan boards, when MLB teams routinely factor it into their decision making. So you’re factually wrong.
  11. This is factually incorrect. Pro scouts and MLB front offices use age+level as a factor in their decision making all the time, whether it’s the draft, trades, or roster management. It’s not the only factor obviously, and it’s not as simple as “this guy is only 18 and is playing against 21 year olds, therefore he’s impressive.” If a prospect is younger than the competition and he’s performing well, then that means he has advanced skills and is therefore a real prospect. It’s also a factor because younger guys are more projectable. Especially at the lower levels, they usually aren’t done maturing. So if someone is hitting homers as a lanky 19 year old in A ball, it’s easy to imagine him mashing in the Majors. As far as guys in their early 20s in the high minors, that’s actually a sign that their organization views them highly. It’s also a sign that they are legit, because most guys their age are still in college. 21 year old pitcher in AAA vs 21 year old in the SEC? I know who I think has a better shot at impacting the MLB team. There’s a reason why people lose their minds when someone like Juan Soto cracks the big league roster. The filler guys in the high minors are never in their early 20s. That just doesn’t happen. Here’s an article that lays out some of this stuff. It’s kinda old at this point, but still interesting and informative. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-prospects-age-can-be-more-than-just-a-number/
  12. FWIW, my defense of Celestino is just that I think he’s a pretty good ball player who fills a need on the roster. He and Gordon have shown about the same offensively, but Celestino’s defense is pretty clearly better. Plus he’s three years younger . He’s never gonna be an elite player, but I think he does the job he’s asked to do quite well.
  13. Celestino has so far put up a 103 ops+. Not world beating by any means, but perfectly fine for a fourth outfielder who plays very good defense. I don’t understand why you send a guy like that to the minors.
  14. I don’t think this is true. They traded for Duran, Smeltzer, Alcala, and Ryan when they were still in the minors. They went out and got Gray (although I’m not sure how much credit they should get for “identifying” his talent, since any baseball fan could tell you he’s a good pitcher). They drafted Winder and Ober. The Rogers trade wasn’t exactly good, but I can see the logic of getting however many years of Paddack for a single season of Rogers. Pagan hasn’t done his part. Maybe they overestimated his abilities. At any rate, it sure does seem they were trying to follow the Rays model to an extent, but with a Twins spin on it. Gray, Ryan, Paddack, and Ober are guys who can give you 5-6 good innings most times out. Bundy and Archer seem like they were brought in to go through the order twice without blowing it. I’m wondering if the plan was for one or both of them to pitch more “bulk bridge” innings along with Winder as the season went. They fit the profile described in the article. Really, it has been injuries that have screwed things up. Other than Smeltzer, Bundy, and Archer, I think every pitcher I’ve named has spend time on the IL or Covid list.
  15. The bottom line is that they need to get at least two relievers via trade. The other bottom line is that the guys they have now need to throw strikes and get outs when they’re asked to pitch. They don’t need to be elite. They just need to not be unplayable.
  16. He already used Jax and Duran in the 7th, 8th, and 9th in a tied ballgame. Moran threw two innings in the nightcap the day before, so he wasn’t available for the tenth. The options were Pagan, Thielbar, Thornburg, Duffey, and Cotten. Thielbar has an ERA over 5.00 and pitched in the morning game the day before. Thornburg is not exactly a trusted commodity. Duffey has been as bad or worse than Pagan. Cotten of course gave up the winning homer after Pagan set the table. I’m not saying Baldelli is Connie Mack or even Tom Kelly, but when these are your options…there are no good options.
  17. You’ve yet to name the small town paper or Wordpress site where we can read your trove of analysis. Maybe that will help others understand where you’re coming from.
  18. Your weird partisanship about Baldelli is annoying. I’d guess most people who post here are Baldelli agnostic. There’s a few, like yourself, who hyperbolize his ineptitude and assume everyone who disagrees is “pro” Rocco. Let’s have an interesting discussion, not a Facebook thread.
  19. I agree with you on pretty much all of this. Berry’s bat is enticing, but they’ve drafted numerous guys like him over the past few years. Cross would be unexciting to me—basically another Larnach but taken 15 or so spots higher. I would be okay with Susac, but agree his bat is a concern. Joey Bart is apparently a comp some scouts like, which to me isn’t in his favor. If Collier or Parada are there at 8, they’ve gotta run to the podium and take one of them. Ultimately I think it will be Neto, and I think that would be a really nice pick. He has some stuff to clean up with his hitting mechanics, but the hit tool is there, he can run, and the glove is legit. He’s maybe a little like Nick Gordon in that none of his tools are elite, but he does everything well. Unlike Gordon, he seems like a decent bet to stick at short and develop some real game power. Honestly he strikes me as a player the Dodgers would take.
  20. I haven’t looked into this specifically, but a superficial glance at league-wide IP leaders the other day showed that only about 12 or so pitchers (give or take a few) in all of MLB are averaging 6.0 innings per start or higher. It stands to reason that starters are throwing fewer pitches as well, and that it’s not limited to one or even half the teams.
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