Which of Twins’ 10 Arbitration-Eligible Players Will They Non-Tender This Offseason?

[Eric Blonigen]

Image courtesy of © Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

At some point in late November each year, teams need to decide whether to tender contracts to their arbitration-eligible players, or whether they will allow them to become free agents immediately. Heading into 2026, the Minnesota Twins will have decisions to make on no fewer than 10 players.

I will look at each of these 10 players, and speculate on which of them will—or at least should—be tendered. Before I do that, let's run through a quick primer on the process.

By tendering a contract, teams begin a process whereby they agree to financial terms on a one-year deal with each of these players—or buy time for negotiations on a multi-year pact. If they are unable to reach terms, the two sides head to an arbitration hearing. Typically speaking, good players are tendered contracts in each of their three arbitration-eligible seasons. Middling players typically get deals for their first year or two of arbitration, before they get expensive because of the guaranteed raises built into the system and are cast off a year early. Players who have struggled to find consistency or look overmatched at the big-league level are often non-tendered before their first or second arbitration-eligible season. Sometimes, if a player no longer fits into a team’s plans but has value, they can be tendered and then traded. Then, the new team is responsible for agreeing to terms.

From a salary standpoint, for an average-ish player, they will typically receive $2-3 million in their first turn through arbitration; perhaps $4-5 million their second time; and $8-10 million their third and final time. Better players earn more, and lesser players earn less.

So, without further ado, let’s look at the players by group.

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The No-Brainers
This group will almost certainly be in the Twins' plans next year—or at the very least, traded, if the front office tears the team down fully. It would make no sense to non-tender them.

• Ryan Jeffers - Arb-3, 2.0 fWAR, 112 wRC+, .747 OPS, -5 catching runs

Hey, he’s the only catcher (who’s a clear major leaguer) on their roster. Someone needs to catch 162 games next season. He’s been an above-average hitter at an offensively weak position. Plus, he certainly has decent trade value and may even be an extension candidate. Plus, he’s been preparing for the advent of the ABS challenge system all season. This is $8 million or so well spent.

• Joe Ryan - Arb-2, 3.0 fWAR, 3.47 ERA, 27.7 K%, 5.7% BB%

Despite yet another late-season fade, Ryan is a great starting pitcher controlled for two more seasons, and he has tremendous trade value. Perhaps more than any other player, Ryan is likely to be tendered and then traded this offseason. If, somehow, the front office decides not to trade him, he’s a clear rotational building block. This one is written in pen.

• Cole Sands - Arb-1, 0.7 fWAR, 3.64 FIP, 94th percentile off-speed run value

The Twins, after trading their five high-leverage relievers in the deadline fire sale, have a ton of spots to fill in the bullpen next season. Sands is the likeliest option currently on the roster to be the closer and will be in his first season of arbitration eligibility. While his results regressed mightily in 2025, he has looked better of late. He's rediscovered some velocity, and it’s entirely possible the Twins can get him back to his 2024 ways.

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The Likely-To-Be-Tendered
These guys still have a great chance to take a step forward, will be relatively cheap, and if it were me, would absolutely be tendered contracts. Famously, though, the Twins are run by not-me.

• Bailey Ober - Arb-2, 0.9 fWAR, 3.74 FIP from 2022-2024

Ober is the tiniest bit tricky to peg. On one hand, he had been great each of the past three seasons—a playoff-caliber starter with obvious trade value. On the other hand, he’s been bad this season. Most (if not all) of that can be traced to a mechanical issue, perhaps stemming from lingering hip soreness. If the Twins feel that an offseason of rest will get him right again, he is certain to be tendered. If the Twins move Ryan and Pablo López in the offseason, they will need a veteran who can eat innings with at least average results.

• Royce Lewis - Arb-2 (Super-2 player), 1.2 fWAR, 90 wRC+, 12 SB, struggling against the fastball

Lewis has had an enigmatic start to his professional career. Between the injuries, the endless grand slams, the slumps (even though he doesn’t do the whole slump thing), the emergent proclivity to run, and the snarky comments about those around him, he’s tough to figure out. He has all the upside in the world, as a former No. 1 overall pick, and he's shown that he can carry the offense for stretches. He’s also been ice-cold for (longer) stretches, and one could argue that his saltiness could be counterproductive to club dynamics. He could be the sort of guy who would benefit from a different mentor, or a different club entirely. I can’t envision the Twins being ready to cut bait with him, though.

• Kody Clemens - Arb-1, 1.4 fWAR, 99 wRC+, positional flexibility, good power

Clemens is one of those guys who is likely to earn less than the $2 million arb-1 estimate I gave earlier, based on lack of playing time, age, and previously sluggish performance. He has shown some positional versatility, logging innings at first, second, left field, and right field. He has 25-homer power, but is very streaky. Depending on which prospects (if any) the Twins are planning on bringing north out of spring training in 2026, he seems like a guy worth paying for at least one season.

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On The Bubble
This is a tougher group to peg. They may not have proven themselves yet, could be Quad-A guys, or may be on the downswing.

• Anthony Misiewicz - Arb-1, -0.1 fWAR, 8.92 FIP (4 1/3 innings), lefty reliever

Despite throwing just a few innings this season and being (generally speaking) a replacement-level arm, he does have one thing going for him: he’s a lefty. Depending on how the Twins feel about Kody Funderburk, they may choose to tender Misiewicz under the assumption they can unlock at least a little more out of him for a likely salary near the league minimum. After suffering a pectoral strain that has sidelined him for months, Misiewicz is finishing the season by getting back on a mound and facing some hitters. That's a good sign as he enters the offseason.

• Michael Tonkin - Arb-3, -0.1 fWAR, 4.97 FIP, rubber-armed veteran

Tonkin is entering his final year of arbitration in his age-36 season. He agreed to terms at just $1 million in 2025, but will probably be due at least a small raise. He has been replacement-level, but has a rubber arm, and that holds at least a small amount of value. The Twins can probably do better at a similar price point. The only thing that could go in his favor is his veteran status.

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Likely To Be Non-Tendered
This group has negative value compared to their expected salary; may clog up the pipeline; and would not net much of anything in trade.

• Trevor Larnach - Arb-2, 0.2 fWAR, 102 wRC+, best as DH but doesn’t hit well enough for it

Trevor Larnach has been a roughly replacement-level player this season. He's an average-ish hitter who offers no defensive value. He hasn’t been one of the many players adding speed on the base paths to their game down the stretch, and ultimately, he will be in the way of top prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez—not to mention Luke Keaschall, should he need to be moved to the outfield. The Twins supposedly attempted to trade Larnach at the deadline and couldn’t find takers. Now that he will he more expensive, there doesn’t seem to be a path for him to remain with the team, especially more than $4 million.

• Thomas Hatch - Arb-1, -0.3 fWAR, 6.03 FIP, walks too many and doesn’t strike enough out

Nothing against Hatch: he has eaten some innings as a long reliever down the stretch, seems cerebral and data-driven, and has been clear that he strives to grow as a pitcher. However, he has been replacement-level for his Twins tenure. There are plenty of pitchers in the organization who can throw a couple innings at a time when the game is already out of hand, and they all would make the league minimum. In a different organization, he might get tendered, but I don’t see the Twins wanting to spend an extra (say) $500,000 that they don’t need to.

So there you have it: 10 players, and what I think will happen with each. What do you think? Anyone you disagree with?

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[Vanimal46]

My No Brainers are Jeffers, Ryan, Sands, and Lewis. We're not going to give up on Lewis at this stage in his career. 

On the bubble: Ober - Completely dependent on if they think a procedure or simply rest will help him gain back the 2-3 MPH in velocity he lost this year. If he can't get back to 92-93 MPH then he's not worth $6-7 million. 

Non-tenders: Hatch, Tonkin, Misiewicz, Larnach 

[Ricky Vaughn]

I Think Jeffers will be traded. Its his last year before free agency and considering who his agent is I don't see the Twins being able to extend him. Larnach may be able to be traded to someone for a reliever or a middling prospect. Sad return for a first round pick.

[DJL44]

I think someone will take Larnach at that arb price and return a potential bullpen arm.

[old nurse]

Given the state of pitching Hatch Tonkin and Misiewicz will all get offered a contract that might be a slight raise or not. It is better than a minor league contract with an invite. Ober does not have a replacement. The only way he is non tendered is if he asks for a contract that doesn’t include last year’s performance. Larnach would be wise to sign a contract that includes a small raise. The arb value on a replacement level player should not be 5 million.  They may view Rodriquez as a replacement but they did not call him up once the season in St Paul ended.  If there were more sure replacements he would be a non tender candidate. Injuries wrecked a team full of question marks, does 2 million break the bank?

[old nurse]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think someone will take Larnach at that arb price and return a potential bullpen arm.

A league average bat is bottom third for a league starting OF/DH.  You are correct that it would only be a potential and not an actual BP arm

[Cory Engelhardt]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think someone will take Larnach at that arb price and return a potential bullpen arm.

2nd'd. If they got a reliever for Nick Gordon, they'll be able to get a better one for Larnach.

[Doctor Gast]

All on the bubble & likely nontendered are gone. IMO, Larnach should get something back in trade. Because of a lack of BP, there's a good chance that Tonkin comes back. There might be some that wanted to be traded, mainly Ryan. I don't think Lewis likes the direction of the team, but he'll stay. Jeffers is in his last year, so usually, Falvey likes to trade those players (many I'd like them to extend). Falvey has banked on Jeffers & I'm all in on extending Jeffers to a team-friendly extension, but Boras as his agent kinda defeats that purpose. I'm against signing him to an exorbitant extension & being so dependent on him. It'll be interesting how that ends up (I think?)

[jimmiexx]

Just get rid of Clemens before he absolutely bombs.

[Mike Sixel]

It's hard to see why Larnach would be back....not just the money, but he's literally replacement level. Take a chance on someone else. He might be dealt, and if he is, I hope they go for a young guy with high risk upside over a mediocre RP.

I can't see Ober being non-tendered....he'll be back or traded. 

Lewis on the bubble? Is that just to get comments (damn, it worked)?

Both questionable RPs should be non-tendered. You can find those guys from other teams (or bring them back for the minimum after no one signs them).

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

My No Brainers are Jeffers, Ryan, Sands, and Lewis. We're not going to give up on Lewis at this stage in his career. 

On the bubble: Ober - Completely dependent on if they think a procedure or simply rest will help him gain back the 2-3 MPH in velocity he lost this year. If he can't get back to 92-93 MPH then he's not worth $6-7 million. 

Non-tenders: Hatch, Tonkin, Misiewicz, Larnach 

I think they bring Larnach back, and I believe they should do so

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, mickster said:

I think they bring Larnach back, and I believe they should do so

Why? He's worth zero war, and he will cost five million dollars. I can't see any reason to bring him back, with 4 legit OF prospects in AAA, and the ability to sign a random OF for less money that does as much or more than him. 

[High heat]

Ober,Lewis, Jeffers, Sands, Ryan  will be offered arb, 

Jeffers and Ryan might be traded before the Twins pay them a dime.

Larnach will be non tendered. 

I can’t tell on the organizational view of Kody Clemens, if he is viewed as a utility player who can play some OF and 2B he could be a useful bench piece.  If he is viewed as just a 1B and our best option at 1B in 26 you know what happens this offseason.  
Im guessing he is a guy they offer a MLB contract to prior to Arb.  If they aren’t close on salary he gets non tendered.
 

The relievers they might offer 1 yr contracts to prior to arb offers and if they don’t accept they will likely be non tendered.  

[Mai.K]

We've all forgotten Miranda

[Nashvilletwin]

Lewis will be tendered - 100%.

The question is should he be traded.

If Rocco stays, then if I’m Lewis, I think I get my agent to look for some different scenery.  He desperately needs a new approach to save what should be a solid MLB career.  So trade him. 

If Rocco goes, then we should not trade Lewis.  Let’s see what some other leadership can do for him.

Giving Lewis another chance here under a different mentor/coaching regime is reason enough to fire Rocco. Lewis’ option value alone is way greater than the differentiated value Rocco brings to the table for another year (including the comp we’d save by keeping Rocco). 

Sadly, Ryan is too far gone to be enticed to stay by a Rocco firing - he clearly wants out.

[BSLinPA]

24 minutes ago, Mai.K said:

We've all forgotten Miranda

You have the right to remain silent, anything you say can be used against you..........

[jmlease1]

I'm very surprised to see any consideration of non-tendering Ober. He hasn't had a particularly good season, but while he'll get a raise in arbitration he still won't be all that expensive for a starting pitcher, and we have multiple seasons of quality performance in 2023 and 2024 to show he can be an effective rotation piece.

I guess all it takes is one down season some people will throw him on the scrap heap. But there's zero chance the Twins will toss him aside.

Larnach seems like a fairly easy arbitration decision: He's getting more expensive, he's a platoon-only player who doesn't even punish RHP that effectively, he adds no defensive value or real positional flexibility (he might be able to learn 1B, but will he be better than even Clemens there?), isn't an impactful baserunner, and seems unlikely to improve next season at 29. It's not like he hasn't gotten opportunities: even with the injuries he's gotten in 1500 ABs or so. Someone might pick him up to be a bench bat who can play corner OF/DH, but they're paying $1-2M, not $4. Twins need to be looking higher.

Anthony Misiewicz & Michael Tonkin should also be non-tendered, IMHO. Sorry, but these guys are waiver wire type claims at this point like Hatch.

Jeffers, Ryan, Ober, Lewis, and Sands really shouldn't be hard choices right now if it comes down to tender or release.

Clemens is the only somewhat challenging decision. You'd like the floor to be higher than him as a hitter, but with an ability to play corner OF, 2B, 1B, and in a pinch 3B...he wouldn't be the worst 26th man the Twins have had by a long shot. As a starting 1B, you need to do better. If he still had an option left, it'd be fairly easy to tender him. He seems to be well-liked, works hard, and is a bit of a glue guy. I wouldn't be terribly outraged either way on this one. 

[T.O.]

1 hour ago, Mai.K said:

We've all forgotten Miranda

Apparently. No one every talks about him. I'm surprised they didn't give him another chance after the purge. Why keep giving Julien playing time and not look at Miranda again.
He's still on the 40.
Not hitting well in STP this year but maybe a new start?
Didn't he play a lot of 1st base in 22?

[T.O.]

1 hour ago, BSLinPA said:

You have the right to remain silent, anything you say can be used against you..........

Every time I've heard his name the past 4 years I've said "Silently" that Jose has more rights than anyone on the team.

[T.O.]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Lewis will be tendered - 100%.

The question is should he be traded.

If Rocco stays, then if I’m Lewis, I think I get my agent to look for some different scenery.  He desperately needs a new approach to save what should be a solid MLB career.  So trade him. 

If Rocco goes, then we should not trade Lewis.  Let’s see what some other leadership can do for him.

Giving Lewis another chance here under a different mentor/coaching regime is reason enough to fire Rocco. Lewis’ option value alone is way greater than the differentiated value Rocco brings to the table for another year (including the comp we’d save by keeping Rocco). 

Sadly, Ryan is too far gone to be enticed to stay by a Rocco firing - he clearly wants out.

All of that makes a lot of sense. The Ryan part seems clear to a lot of people but the Lewis part I've never heard expressed that way. His flashes of brilliance were too long to be a fluke but he sucks for extended periods. I don't think he is thriving under the current regime. Actually I think that's the teams problem as well.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Please no more of Tonkin. Please.

[jmlease1]

50 minutes ago, T.O. said:

Apparently. No one every talks about him. I'm surprised they didn't give him another chance after the purge. Why keep giving Julien playing time and not look at Miranda again.
He's still on the 40.
Not hitting well in STP this year but maybe a new start?
Didn't he play a lot of 1st base in 22?

Julien went back down to AAA and started hitting again. Miranda went down to AAA and has been dreadful. Why would you reward Miranda with more MLB time when he can't touch AAA pitching?

but what to do with Miranda is a tough one: he's been brutally bad this season. But showed promise in 2024, including real defensive improvement.

[lukeduke1980]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Please no more of Tonkin. Please.

Why it's not like we had to give up on a promising young arm get him back

[Brandon27]

I think 5 out 10 or all going to be traded

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

All on the bubble & likely nontendered are gone. IMO, Larnach should get something back in trade. Because of a lack of BP, there's a good chance that Tonkin comes back. There might be some that wanted to be traded, mainly Ryan. I don't think Lewis likes the direction of the team, but he'll stay. Jeffers is in his last year, so usually, Falvey likes to trade those players (many I'd like them to extend). Falvey has banked on Jeffers & I'm all in on extending Jeffers to a team-friendly extension, but Boras as his agent kinda defeats that purpose. I'm against signing him to an exorbitant extension & being so dependent on him. It'll be interesting how that ends up (I think?)

The article  started out as the front office has their work cut out for them ....

I wish it was a different FO  , manager and owner , but I never get what I ask for at Christmas but it doesn't hurt to start asking early ...

[jorgenswest]

Sometimes they get moved…

• They tendered Gio Urshela in 2022 and received Alejandro Hidalgo. He pitched in AA with a 6.42 ERA this year.
• They tendered Gordon and picked up a reliever in Okert who had been tendered by the Marlins in 2024. Neither made it to 2025 and performed poorly on 2024.

Sometimes they don’t…

• They tendered Kyle Farmer and couldn’t move him. He remained on the roster performing poorly all season.

How much different was Okert than someone they could have added as a free agent or minor league free agent? Is it worth the risk of not finding a trade for Larnach and retaining him on the roster?

 

[USAFChief]

I have to agree with others...Zero chance Lewis and Ober get non-tendered. Zero.

[IndianaTwin]

21 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I have to agree with others...Zero chance Lewis and Ober get non-tendered. Zero.

Concur. Both would sign for more as non-tendered free agents than they will get through the arbitration process. If I’m another team interested in either, I call the FO and say, “If you are even thinking of non-tendering Lewis/Ober, don’t. Instead, tender him and trade him to us. We will give you Player X.”

[Twins33]

I know the arb numbers aren’t the same, but if the Twins can get a living, breathing human for Nick Gordon than I believe they absolutely can get one for Larnach who is at least two times the player Gordon is/was. 

[jorgenswest]

17 minutes ago, Twins33 said:

I know the arb numbers aren’t the same, but if the Twins can get a living, breathing human for Nick Gordon than I believe they absolutely can get one for Larnach who is at least two times the player Gordon is/was. 

Didn’t they get the Marlins version of Gordon? Okert had not pitched well in 2023 but the Marlins took him to arbitration hoping to trade him for a living breathing human. They found Gordon. Neither performed well and both remained on the roster for nearly all of the season. Both teams lost this deal and would have been better served with a player from their organization or a minor league signing in the roster. If anything the Marlins won the deal because Gordon’s arb salary was less than Okert’s arb salary.