Minnesota Could Save a Blue Jays Starter

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins ultimately begin to make moves prior to the 2024 Major League Baseball trade deadline, it should be assumed pitching will be the focus. If it’s a starter, then one from the Toronto Blue Jays could make sense.

 

Chris Paddack just returned from a trip to the injured list. Needing a reset as he builds back up from a season missed due to Tommy John surgery, that wasn’t a surprising situation. His absence allowed top pitching prospect David Festa to take a couple of turns at the big league level. It didn’t go well.

Simeon Woods Richardson has been nothing short of a godsend for the Twins this season. His stability at the back of the rotation has single-handedly shored up depth concerns. He is positioning himself well for rookie of the year consideration, and has mitigated what has been a tough year for Louie Varland.

The Twins aren’t bringing Jose Berrios back, and Alek Manoah underwent elbow surgery. There are three other names that could work though:

Yusei Kikuchi
Making $10 million in the final year of a $36 million deal for Toronto, Kikuchi has been better than his 4.12 ERA would suggest. His strikeout rates are some of the highest he has experienced over the course of his career, and he has never walked less batters. Kikuchi owns a 3.62 FIP, and he did experience postseason pitching last year against Minnesota during the wild card round.

His cost would likely be relatively modest given the numbers and salary. Minnesota could eat more of the remaining considerations of the deal in order to lessen the prospect return. He isn’t going to be a top option in Rocco Baldelli’s rotation, but he could slot in behind Bailey Ober.

Chris Bassitt
For a team seemingly unwilling to spend, Bassitt presents a bit more difficult situation when it comes to his contract. He is under team control through 2025 and is set to make $22 million next year. That isn’t an outrageous amount for a quality starter, and he has received Cy Young votes in three of the past four seasons.

Bassitt has been incredibly consistent. Owning a 3.43 ERA through 18 starts this year, he has backed it with a 3.76 FIP. He’s basically a lock to throw near 200 innings, average around a strikeout per inning, and keep you constantly in a position to win games. Like Kikuchi, he isn’t a top-of-the-rotation arm, but he’s someone you would feel comfortable working in a playoff series behind Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan.

Kevin Gausman
The biggest name of the trio, and a former Cy Young winner, Gausman is owed $23 million each of the next two seasons. That is a number Toronto would likely be inclined to buy down in exchange for better prospect capital. The Twins haven’t swung a deal for a starter of this magnitude since acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cincinnati Reds.

Gausman has not been the same pitcher this season, but his 3.86 FIP is much better than the 4.64 ERA suggests. He is allowing more hits and home runs, but the strikeouts and command are all still part of his game. At just 33 years old, there’s reason to believe the Twins could get him back on track, and not paying a premium for the peak version, may allow them to extract extra value out of the performance.

It would seem likely that the easiest match for Minnesota and Toronto involves Kikuchi. The greatest possible difference maker though, is Gausman, and he’s the type of arm they have been seeking since Gray signed with the Cardinals this offseason.

Which arm would you be most interested in, and what price would you pay to land them?

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[FlyingFinn]

Kikuchi is the only ones the Twins would consider because of payroll and they won't offer the most for him.

[Coach Wheels]

I'm more interested in tje bullpen than starting pitching. Theilbar and Okert make me uncomfortable. LH pitching from the bullpen could use an upgrade, in my opinion.

[dxpavelka]

I agree that Wood-Richardson has been a godsend but can we STOP with the ROY steam?  Not gonna happen.  Would be extremely unlikely to finish top 10 much less top 5 or higher.  Lanford, Cowser, Miller Horwitz, among others all going to finish ahead of him and by the end of the year he might even be looking up at Brooks Lee.  I know we want to support OUR guy but let's not do it at the expense of looking ridiculous doing so.  Feel free to copy / paste this comment and shove it back at me if I'm wrong.  I won't be.

[thelanges5]

Kikuchi is a lefty and would give us a different look in the rotation. Shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg either. 

[tony&rodney]

Sometimes it may be worth thinking about who Falvey (Twins) is willing to trade. If all players in the organization without 'no trade' clauses are in a discussion, the possibilities for adding a strong player increase by quite a bit.

It seems unlikely that the team would add a large contract in any event, which does reduce the choices. Thus, Kikuchi is the only potential add from this post. Is he better than what we already roster? Who goes the other way? I guess we get into that after the All Star Game break.

[JD-TWINS]

Why not bring Berrios back?

He’s affordable, IMO, through ‘28. He can opt out after ‘26, so at least 2 more years of control. $18.7M per year…….he goes up in ‘27 & ‘28 but everyone will cost more then…..could potentially move him after ‘25 if others need $$ or develop from the system?

He has matured and you know what you’re going to get for the most part, going forward. Again, IMO, he can be a mirror image of a good Pablo Lopez when on his game. He can be up & down somewhat as well but most pitchers are - right? He’s a potential playoff weapon.

Julien & Festa & Headrick……somebody from A or AA as well?

 

[MinnInPa]

Twins will get hosed ..as usual.. there's not much high octane fuel in the Minors..i say dont give up any more top prospects.. they may only need 3-4 starters in playoffs anyway. Just go w what we got.. hard to admit..but, we dont have the team to beat O's or Yanks anyway..we cant even beat the Guardians

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why not bring Berrios back?

He’s affordable, IMO, through ‘28. He can opt out after ‘26, so at least 2 more years of control. $18.7M per year…….he goes up in ‘27 & ‘28 but everyone will cost more then…..could potentially move him after ‘25 if others need $$ or develop from the system?

He has matured and you know what you’re going to get for the most part, going forward. Again, IMO, he can be a mirror image of a good Pablo Lopez when on his game. He can be up & down somewhat as well but most pitchers are - right? He’s a potential playoff weapon.

Julien & Festa & Headrick……somebody from A or AA as well?

 

I’d feel better with the opportunity the Team would have with Berrios from age 30-33 at an average of $20M than with Gray from age 33-36 at an average of $25M.

I’m sure many will disagree - OK.

[SAL]

Gausman didn't win the Cy Young, he came in third behind Sonny Gray last year. But it was Robbie Ray who won it in Toronto, not Gausman

[Dman]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Why not bring Berrios back?

He’s affordable, IMO, through ‘28. He can opt out after ‘26, so at least 2 more years of control. $18.7M per year…….he goes up in ‘27 & ‘28 but everyone will cost more then…..could potentially move him after ‘25 if others need $$ or develop from the system?

He has matured and you know what you’re going to get for the most part, going forward. Again, IMO, he can be a mirror image of a good Pablo Lopez when on his game. He can be up & down somewhat as well but most pitchers are - right? He’s a potential playoff weapon.

Julien & Festa & Headrick……somebody from A or AA as well?

 

There is 20M reasons they won't bring Berrios back as they spent that money on Lopez  Add in the length of the contract that was one of the reason they didn't extend him in the first place and I highly doubt they go after Jose.

[Doctor Gast]

Kikuchi is a good SP but IMO if we are going for a SP he needs to be top tier otherwise bring up Varland to help support the pitching in long relief/ spot start. Varland still hasn't established his secondary pitches but he still has great stuff to fit in this role. Varland would be a lifesaver to keep the BP & rotation fresh. Especially Festa, Paddack & sometimes SWR, Thielbar has shown some improvement but I still wouldn't trust any of our LHRPs in a high-leverage situation where picking up a better LHRP would be prudent.

[Trov]

I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts.  I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed. Not sure what the ask would be. It really is a sellers market right now. In the NL only 2 teams are fully out of playoff chance.  There are several teams that are not likely to be buyers, depending on what happens next couple of weeks but may not be full fire sale either. In AL there are 3 teams fully out of it, 2 teams that are pretty much out, Toronto being one of them, and 4 teams within 5.5 games of a playoff spot. Texas is one of them and I bet they look to buy to give a push because they have a roster that can win in playoffs if they get there.  Top end pitching if healthy and can be a strong offense. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

I agree that Wood-Richardson has been a godsend but can we STOP with the ROY steam?  

We'll stop as soon as Woods-Richardson stops pitching well, which I hope is never. The key to a ROY season is putting it together for a whole season. We'll see if all the players you mentioned can sustain their success.

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Twins will get hosed ..as usual.. there's not much high octane fuel in the Minors..i say dont give up any more top prospects..

If there aren't any good prospects left in the minors then the Twins shouldn't care a whole lot if they trade them away.

[DJL44]

I like that Kikuchi gives them a different look for playoff matchups. This roster is weak for lefthanded pitching talent. 

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

Twins will get hosed ..as usual.. there's not much high octane fuel in the Minors..i say dont give up any more top prospects.. they may only need 3-4 starters in playoffs anyway. Just go w what we got.. hard to admit..but, we dont have the team to beat O's or Yanks anyway..we cant even beat the Guardians

That is my  thought too.  They really don't want to give up the future this year.

[LambchoP]

I think a solid lefty in the rotation could help in a number of ways. Same for a high leverage lefty reliever. I don't see the Twins spending or taking on any big contracts, but if we could get a decent starter and move Paddack to the bullpen I'd feel good about our pitching staff.

[GNess]

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

Twins will get hosed ..as usual.. there's not much high octane fuel in the Minors..i say dont give up any more top prospects.. they may only need 3-4 starters in playoffs anyway. Just go w what we got.. hard to admit..but, we dont have the team to beat O's or Yanks anyway..we cant even beat the Guardians

Yes, the Twins weeks/months ago got swept by the Orioles, Yankees and Guardians. But that is not necessarily predictive of future results. The Twins have added Lewis, Lee, a recharged Wallner and Correa and Buxton are performing. to their talent, If the Twins add some pitching of course they could beat any of those teams in the postseason. Teams are dynamic - they evolve over the course of a long season. 

[Western SD Fan]

The SP that the Twins really need to look for is a sage veteran pitcher that can help out the young guys in a pennant chase. That does not seem to be Pablo at this point. Is it possible that Pablo is putting too much stress on himself being the anointed ace of the staff, the Pable Day promotion, and all the hype that goes with it? Last year, Pablo had Sonny Gray to take the pressure off of him. With that being said, I don't think that is any of these pitchers from the Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt is the closest, but he will cost too much in money and prospects. Zach Greinke is going to be in the HOF, but he was always the Robin to someone's Batman when it came to being the superstar. In KC, the team was never good enough for expectations. In LA, Arizona, and Houston, there were always other starters who had the spotlight so Greinke could just pitch and not have that pressure.

This could have probably been its own thread.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I find it unlikely they go after Bassitt or Gausman because of the contracts.  I can see them asking about Kikuchi for depth and possible 4th starter in playoffs if needed

I actually think Kikuchi might be the best of the three. He has the best K% and BB%, the two things I think are the biggest contributors to shutting down good offenses, which is what you'll see in the post season. The counting stats may keep his price down, meanwhile FIP says he's the one to target regardless of cost.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I imagine Gausman would love to come to the Twins so that they could finally reveal what the tell they have on him is.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Unless a major injury occurs between now and the deadline, I just don't really understand what the Twins would get out of trading for a #3-5 starter. None of the Toronto pitchers (or basically anyone that will be on the market besides Crochet) are good enough to slot above Pablo/Ryan/Ober in the postseason rotation - although Gausman is intriguing with his history of being an ace, he's really lost it this year, his expected ERA from the contact he's given up is 5.27 which is 10th percentile league-wide.

After a quick glance at his stats, it looks like the splitter has lost a bit over half a mph and an inch of drop which has resulted in a nearly 10% drop in the whiff rate against that pitch. To compensate, he's throwing pitches in the zone more often than last year while also giving up more contact on pitches out of the strike zone. His barrel rate has been steadily climbing since 2021, so if he can't get strikeouts because of a loss of stuff on his best pitch unfortunately he might already be on the wrong side of the cliff. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Lopez / Ryan / Ober / SWR

Health allowing, the Twins have the makings of a good rotation again in 2025 so I don't necessarily think they'd give up a ton of prospect capital to acquire a controllable starter. The better play is either bullpen arms or a starter on an expiring deal that slots as either a #3 or #4, and lets the Twins shift Paddack to the pen for the post-season.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I agree that Wood-Richardson has been a godsend but can we STOP with the ROY steam?  Not gonna happen.  Would be extremely unlikely to finish top 10 much less top 5 or higher.  Lanford, Cowser, Miller Horwitz, among others all going to finish ahead of him and by the end of the year he might even be looking up at Brooks Lee.  I know we want to support OUR guy but let's not do it at the expense of looking ridiculous doing so.  Feel free to copy / paste this comment and shove it back at me if I'm wrong.  I won't be.

Colton Cowser is hitting 0.221.  He had an INSANE April, but has been AWFUL since then.  0.580 OPS in May, 0.679 in June and 0.490 in July.  If he turns it around and finishes the year strong, he'll be a candidate.  If he continues his 2 month trend, he won't get votes.

Wyatt Langford is having a great year and improving.  Probably the leading candidate.

Spencer Horwitz is having a great year and if he keeps it up will be in the running.

Luis Gil is probably ahead of SWR right now, but its close.  He's actually the #2 favorite on one betting site, likely due to him playing for the Yankees.

I don't think SWR will win, but if he keeps this up all year, he'll be in the conversation.

 

 

 

 

[2wins87]

Seems like a rental would make the most sense this year. 

In theory they already have a full rotation for next year (of course in practice it might not work out that way), and right or wrong, money is tight this year and will be again next year.  Getting a playoff caliber starter and moving Paddack to the pen down the stretch would bolster both the rotation and pen while keeping Paddack's innings in control.  Doing so while keeping the current and near-future core in tact would be ideal.

Gleeman and Sarris's list of "front-line" starters in the Athletic was: Crochet, Kikuchi, Flaherty, Scherzer, Verlander, Snell, Severino, Eovaldi, and Montas.

The reasonable rentals (based on salary, talent, and performance) seem to be Kikuchi, Flaherty, and Eovaldi (though his option for 2025 might vest unless the acquiring team does some shady inning manipulation).

So anyway, I think Kikuchi would make sense. He's not exactly a slam dunk, but I think it'd probably be worth betting on him to have a strong finish, in which case he could be an important playoff piece.

[LA Vikes Fan]

No on those 3. Gausman and Bassitt would be great but I just don't see the Twins paying the prospect price AND taking on a $20m plus contract. Kikuchi is interesting but uninspiring and is only a rental. 

I have a 2 word answer on what SP the Twins should target- Tyler Anderson of the Angels. Classic crafty LH that needs a good D behind him, pitching very well this year. Good in 2022 in front of a strong Dodger defense, not so great in 2023 in front of a bad Angels defense that is better this year since they found a SS. $13m a year contract through 2025. Angels need OF bats in the worst way, might take a package centered around Larnach and a decent but not top 20 minor league prospect or a better hitting prospect (10-20) plus Keirsey. I like Larnach but he and Wallner are a little redundant and we are going to need an OF spot for Castro when Lewis returns since Lee will probably move to 2B, so we should at least think about trading one of them. I think Wallner has the higher ceiling (and lower floor).    

While we're at it, we should be talking to the Angels about Carlos Estevez and at least kicking the tires on Luis Rengifo, Both are available and neither should cost a top 10 prospect. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

That is my  thought too.  They really don't want to give up the future this year.

When is a good time to make a trade then? If not now, when? Serious question.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

Twins will get hosed ..as usual.. there's not much high octane fuel in the Minors..i say dont give up any more top prospects.. they may only need 3-4 starters in playoffs anyway. Just go w what we got.. hard to admit..but, we dont have the team to beat O's or Yanks anyway..we cant even beat the Guardians

Twins are one of two teams with five top 100 prospects. They have one of the top third systems in the game, and have four top 100 picks in this year's draft. I didn't think the industry agrees with you in the condition of the farm. 

The major league team is easily one of the 8 best teams in all of baseball, with Lewis mostly hurt and Lopez struggling. It needs a really good LH reliever and elite starter. If you aren't trading for them last year or this year, you aren't ever doing so. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

The SP that the Twins really need to look for is a sage veteran pitcher that can help out the young guys in a pennant chase. That does not seem to be Pablo at this point. Is it possible that Pablo is putting too much stress on himself being the anointed ace of the staff, the Pable Day promotion, and all the hype that goes with it? Last year, Pablo had Sonny Gray to take the pressure off of him. With that being said, I don't think that is any of these pitchers from the Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt is the closest, but he will cost too much in money and prospects. Zach Greinke is going to be in the HOF, but he was always the Robin to someone's Batman when it came to being the superstar. In KC, the team was never good enough for expectations. In LA, Arizona, and Houston, there were always other starters who had the spotlight so Greinke could just pitch and not have that pressure.

This could have probably been its own thread.

What young guys? SWR is the only guy without at least three years of pitching. The others were all in the playoffs last year. The bullpen has one young guy.