What Could a Royce Lewis Extension With Twins Look Like?

[Cody Pirkl]

Bobby Witt Jr.’s recent extension guarantees him $288.7 million and could keep him in Kansas City for 11 years, assuming he doesn’t exercise his opt-outs. What might a similar move look like to keep Royce Lewis in Minnesota for the long run?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Royce Lewis and Bobby Witt Jr. have their similarities. Both are freak athletes who can contribute in any way imaginable on the field. Any team employing them is exceptionally fortunate, as both high first-round picks seem destined for greatness. There are also, however, several relevant differences when comparing a potential Lewis extension to the one Witt Jr. signed.

Lewis will turn 25 this June, while the Royals star will turn 24, a surprising reality considering Witt Jr. has an advantage of over 1,000 MLB plate appearances. That extra year in age may not sound like much, but Lewis has an extra year of team control and could already be beyond his prime when he is set to become a free agent--especially given his health history.

That past knee trouble is the other consideration, and it’s a huge one. Lewis’s injury history is no secret. Two torn ACL tears are certainly a factor in the process of finding an agreeable price for a long-term team investment. So are the oblique and hamstring injuries he suffered in 2023. Players rarely get healthier as they age, and an extension for Lewis would be an even bigger bet on his health than Byron Buxton's team-friendly deal was on him. As electric a player Lewis is, the Twins have to be smart in considering whether the injuries could draw away from his performance or keep him off the field altogether. 

That being said, it’s easy to argue that Lewis is the type of player worth gambling on. So what might a deal look like that both sides agree to? It’s hard to say for sure with the creativity allowed in many of these deals these days (to wit, Kansas City offering several consecutive opt-outs). It’s hard to say that Lewis should be directly on par with Witt Jr.'s extension, but it’s a good benchmark.

Something in the ballpark of 10 years and $210 million may be in the sweet spot. Instead of consecutive opt-outs at the end of the deal, perhaps he has one in year seven or eight, when he would still be young enough to pursue another contract if he feels he can beat the remainder of the deal.

This is still a deal that considers Lewis’s sky-high ceiling, though the lesser number in years and average annual value reflects his extra year of age, injury concerns, and shorter track record of big-league dominance. The first question is whether it makes sense for Lewis, a Scott Boras client, who could earn much more with a healthy season resembling his production thus far in his career. The second question is whether it makes sense for the Twins, who aren’t at risk of losing Lewis soon.

With the opt-outs in this particular scenario, Lewis may still be able to leave a year or two after he’s already set to hit free agency, limiting the payoff of the extension if he becomes the generational player he’s capable of being. While his salary will ramp up with each year of arbitration, those numbers are based partially on his performance. The Twins certainly wouldn’t mind giving Lewis healthy pay increases if he’s producing.

The tricky thing about such a vast extension is that it has to work for both sides when weighing risk and reward. The Royals and Wit were able to match up and keep him in town for what could well be his entire MLB career. It’s hard to imagine the Twins and Royce Lewis won’t at least try to do the same.

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Does the proposed deal seem realistic to secure Royce Lewis for years to come? Should the Twins or Royce Lewis himself be wary of signing an extension with the lack of consistent track record in his career so far? Let us know below!

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[Doctor Gast]

When we ever get some money that's where I'd want to invest it, in Royce Lewis long term.

[DJL44]

What does his arbitration schedule look like without an extension? That's essentially a team option every season for the next 5 years.

The best 3B make $30M a season but those are free agent prices. Austin Riley is a better comp than Witt and he's getting 10 years $212M. He signed that deal closer to free agency than Royce and with better health and production in the seasons leading up to the deal.

10 years $180M would be my offer. That accounts for the extra season of pre-arbitration control the Twins have compared to Riley and the injury history.

[TwinsDr2021]

If I running the Twins, there is zero chance I am extending him for 10 years and 200 plus million. The Twins have control of him for the next 4 season and up until (edit: though) age 29 season. So they are buying ages 30 - 35, nope. I love me some Lewis but you don't give that kind of money to a player that has played 118 in the last last 4 seasons combined. (Comparison Witt has played 432 games)

I would probably look at like a 6 year deal to buy out his first two years of FA and give him the same numbers as Witt, 2, 7, 13, 19, 30, 35 which is 106 million. 

[rv78]

Every contract, especially long-term ones, should be loaded with incentives based on games played and performance. I'm sick of watching players getting paid like superstars and performing like average joes or worse. 

[CRF]

Let's see what happens this season. Hopefully, he stays healthy, off the IL, and has a very successful year. Then, look at extending him. It's gonna cost buku bucks no matter what. Plenty of time to go down that road.

[roger]

Don't have a clue, or an opinion, of when or how the Twins should extend Lewis.  I do have an opinion about this young man, however.  And that is that I want to see him play his entire career with the Twins. 

As for a comparison with Witt.  Hate seeing Witt come up with runners in scoring position in a close game.  But I truly expect Lewis to be the better player over the remainder of their careers.

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Let him develop for a few years to see if he continues to be injury-prone.  At that point they can do a contract based on his performance and injury history.  If he continues to be injured, possibly a contract similar to what Buxton got where the player and team are protected would be in order.

IMO, a few years = 3 at a minimum……seems Twins lose leverage each year. I could see an escalating payment schedule but it doesn’t make sense for him to accept less if he has to bare the career risks “the next few years”

Maybe 10 years for $200 with payments of:

$4M - $10M - $16M - $24.25M for 7 more years. Big commitment overlapping ($24M) Correa for 2 years or more. Could give him option to get out each year after year 7.

Discounted to the Twins due to his health concerns and the escalating pay approach. Lewis eliminates risk to him……..flexibility at age 32. Something like this may be reasonable but it’s hard to pull the trigger without at least 3-4 months of steady play/health in ‘24.

[bjorks]

Estimated future payroll commitments per Sportrac  

As much as RL is the current/future face (along with Jenkins) we all want, until the TV deal and streaming package is settled, it may be difficult to estimate future payroll limits. We're committed to $105.5M in 2025 already with (potentially) DeSclafani, Kepler, Santana, Thielbar, and Staumont UFAs and Castro, Jeffers, Kiriloff, Topa, Okert, Stewart, Ryan, Ober, Larnach, Jax, and Duran all arbitration eligible. 

The Twins are in great position with only 3 total guaranteed deals in 2026 and 2027 and 2 in 2028 (Lopez will be 32 at the end of his deal in '28). There's no rush IMHO. RL needs to prove he can stay healthy as much as we have a number of guys who need to prove they're long term building blocks and I argue we have quite a few guys who need to prove it. Jenkins is potentially the guy the buyout and that's 3-4 years away. There's no rush to do anything unless Boras and RL are pushing for it, which I doubt. RL is worth substantially more than $20M/year if averages 135+ games a year through '28. If he's got franchise type numbers he's probably worth double that at the peak of his prime.

Obviously if you're the Twins you start having talkings after NEXT season if that's the precedent you want to set, but unless there are health concerns from the RL camp we don't know about, I'd bet on myself. Buying guys out is a risky proposition. I wish I had the decision of $200M now or $350M later! lol  

 

 

 

[mickster]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

When we ever get some money that's where I'd want to invest it, in Royce Lewis long term.

Not disagreeing completely, but what if he turns into an injury prone clone of Buxton...........................................................

[farmerguychris]

Would love it  but his agent Boras would never let it happen.

[Mike Sixel]

So much risk, so much potential reward. Frankly, glad I don't need to make this decision.

[Riverbrian]

I'd assume it would be like the Byron Buxton extension. 

Escalators based on AB's. MVP Bonuses. 

I think Royce is a superstar but he has had major injury issues since 2019 that should make any front office pause on the extension talk until you have a couple of years of 500 plus AB's.   

 

[Twins33]

I’d wait at least one year for him to prove his health. I love the guy, but it’s too early for me. I realize that may mean the price goes up. It’s worth the risk to wait. 
 

If it were my money, I’d offer him something like 9/120 right now. He would very likely turn that down and I wouldn’t blame him for betting on himself. 

[Doctor Gast]

18 minutes ago, mickster said:

Not disagreeing completely, but what if he turns into an injury prone clone of Buxton...........................................................

Understand where you're coming from. I'm willing to invest in Lewis because I know what kind of person he is. Each time he gets struck down he gets up that much stronger & better both physically & characterwise. His past injuries are leverage & will be considered in the contract.

[miracleb]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What does his arbitration schedule look like without an extension? That's essentially a team option every season for the next 5 years.

The best 3B make $30M a season but those are free agent prices. Austin Riley is a better comp than Witt and he's getting 10 years $212M. He signed that deal closer to free agency than Royce and with better health and production in the seasons leading up to the deal.

10 years $180M would be my offer. That accounts for the extra season of pre-arbitration control the Twins have compared to Riley and the injury history.

Wow......Austin Riley is actually a very good comp....but doubtful Lewis has a chance to be Austin Riley!

[Nashvilletwin]

Unless the Pohlads are looking to build a new stadium and need a sales tax hike to help pay for it, an extension now is premature.  Let’s see how season progresses and revisit in the somewhat near future.

[DFlow]

I think the challenging part would be the opt outs as we still have five years of control here. Paying 3-4x as much as going the traditional route for an opt out in Year 7 makes no sense IMO. 
 

I think the Twins have all the leverage here with these five years of control and Royce’s health issues. If they can get them to be team options instead then I would be 100% on board (a bumped up version of the Polanco deal). Otherwise- I think you let this play out. He’s had so little experience in the league too that I’m curious how pitchers adapt to him this year anyways. Year 8/9/10 team options for 25/27.5/30 feels like we could get it done. 

[Jocko87]

From a relationship standpoint I would certainly reach out and make sure Boras and Royce know they were interested in doing something.  They may not come to a deal now but this is one where first mover has an advantage.  The window is now and Boras will do deals like this but there won't be a discount.  He just did one with Altuve.  Speaking of Astros, Id like to try and emulate a little bit of Alex Bregman with Lewis.

I like a deal to try to buy out two years of free agency, he gets to hit the market at 31 again and the Twins get some cost certainty.  I'd think that could be done for around $100m.  2m/4m/8m/16m/22m/26m/28m option for 30m or something like that.  Throw some MVP bonuses on it.  7/106m and a option, sign me up.

I, and probably the Twins, aren't interested in 11 or 14 year type career deals for anyone.

He only has 70 big league games, a full healthy season sends the price through the roof.

[Shaitan]

Lots of team-friendly proposals here. Explain to me why Lewis would want that?

Anyway, I wouldn't even think of it until he's played a full season.

Besides the health risk of one player on a long-term contract, that would lock up Buxton, Correa, and Lewis for the foreseeable future. That's a lot of combined money and injury risk.

[Fatbat]

Well they sold Carousel Motor group for north of $700M so does it really matter if they drop $250M on one guy? and for anyone protecting the Pohlads pocket change…. They are worth north of $9B so they will be able to keep the lights on at target 🎯 field. 

[Craig Arko]

I suppose it looks like 2026.

[jkcarew]

Even the desperate and destitute Royals waited until Witt had played 308 games.

It’s a question that doesn’t yet need to be asked. One, two, years from now…doesn’t matter…Lewis and his advisors should have plenty incentive to extend at moderate terms (relative to performance) given his injury history.

[Trov]

I do not expect a long term extension similar to Witt at this point.  One, Lewis is coming off a good season but still just his first someone what full season at MLB level, but still only 217 at bats.  In that short time he was on a tear and if you stretch that out to full season, assuming he plays the same over 162 he would be MVP level with a nearly 8 to 9 WAR depending on his defense.  Of course you want that locked up long term. 

However, it is still only 58 games.  There is much adjustments pitchers to make and he needs to show he can adjust to that.  Additionally, he is one year older that Witt and one less year of service time.  Not 100% on this but believe he will be up for arbitration through age 29 season, meaning he does not become FA until age 30 season.  Either way, that is later than Witt who would have been FA going into age 28 season.  

Unless we buy out 1 or 2 years of FA there is little reason to take on risk right now, so the opt out year would need to be year 6 or 7, when Lewis is 31 or 32.  But then it only makes sense for him if there are 3 plus years of option after.  The big question for the Twins would be are you willing to risk having 3 years of big money overpay, only way he does not opt out generally is being big overpay, to get cost control and 1 to 2 years of FA years?  Personally, I think they would be willing to risk losing him after 5 more years, than risking getting stuck with aging guy that is overpaid.  Keep in mind Lewis has injury history.  

These long term deals for pre-arb guys are so hard to gage.  I think more players are willing to take them because it is life changing money at only a small risk of losing out on a little life changing money.  Some though want the ability to be courted in first chance at FA.  Soto turned down crazy long contract for tons of money.  Teams only willing to do it if they get at least a year or two of the free agent years though.  Without that it is all risk no reward for team. 

When you look at Witts deal, they set it that team gets 3 years of FA.  Also, the years leading up are similar to pre free agent years.  They buy out 3 years of FA at 30 mil, 35mil and 35 mil.  Then Witt can opt out if he thinks he can earn more. Can he get more than a 4 year 150 mil at 31, how he is doing will tell.  If he could not, then most likely he will be getting way overpaid and Royals will be stuck.  That is some risk. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

From a relationship standpoint I would certainly reach out and make sure Boras and Royce know they were interested in doing something.  They may not come to a deal now but this is one where first mover has an advantage.  The window is now and Boras will do deals like this but there won't be a discount.  He just did one with Altuve.  Speaking of Astros, Id like to try and emulate a little bit of Alex Bregman with Lewis.

I like a deal to try to buy out two years of free agency, he gets to hit the market at 31 again and the Twins get some cost certainty.  I'd think that could be done for around $100m.  2m/4m/8m/16m/22m/26m/28m option for 30m or something like that.  Throw some MVP bonuses on it.  7/106m and a option, sign me up.

I, and probably the Twins, aren't interested in 11 or 14 year type career deals for anyone.

He only has 70 big league games, a full healthy season sends the price through the roof.

I'm not sure Boras's willingness to do an extension on a nearly 34-year-old player with 13 years of experience is a helpful comparative indicator. 

[gman]

Not just Lewis, but I hope 6-8 or more of the current crop of prospects they want to hang unto long term. 8, 10,12 years or even more.

[Reptevia]

Royce Lewis is no Bobby Witt. Not even close. 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would probably look at like a 6 year deal to buy out his first two years of FA and give him the same numbers as Witt, 2, 7, 13, 19, 30, 35 which is 106 million. 

If I was Royce Lewis I would actually prefer a 6 year deal to a 10 year deal. Hit free agency at age 30 and get my next big contract. The Twins would be able to give him a QO and recoup a draft pick at that age too.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'm not sure Boras's willingness to do an extension on a nearly 34-year-old player with 13 years of experience is a helpful comparative indicator. 

OK, here's some others. Probably not an all inclusive list. Altuve is instructive in doing it twice. The player obviously wanted to be in that place. It can be done. No discounts likely though. 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/history-of-scott-boras-contract-extensions-with-walk-years-looming-for-juan-soto-jose-altuve-more/

[Blyleven2011]

Spring training there are always talks about extentions ...

Is it the right thing to do , i would like the FO to at least explore it but not necessarily  , go through the process and feel it out with lewis this year  ...

then next year if he has 500 ats bats by staying healthy and is a game changer  , then jump back in a work on a deal that has incentives  due to possible injures ...

And remember insurance is taken out on these big contract  , what percentage  I think it's about 80 percent and it is costly , but in the long run it helps the team , it doesn't cut salary but it helps get some money back for budget  ...

I'd take the risk for Lewis after this season  , please stay healthy  royce ...