DFlow

The Twins need to commit to tanking this season. It is not enjoyable to say; however, the Twins had an extremely narrow path pre-Pablo injury to make a playoff run. Post Pablo injury- looking at trades for Joe Ryan and Trevor Larnach (from this article) are way too logical to ensure we build the next wave of talent. Feeling a roster squeeze for Austin Martin and Alan Roden seems ridiculous to trot out guys like Larnach and Waggaman who do not have long term futures with the organization. We have given Larnach substantial opportunity over four years to become a major league regular and that has not materialized. Further- he is unplayable in the field. The left handed bat is fine but it's such a narrow path for what has always been just an average to a tick above bat. Whether we like it or not- Martin has given this team juice multiple times in the past with his speed and on base ability. He provides complimentary baseball to our roster and there is value there. Roden has such limited MLB reps and his all around game could round out into a MLB regular with plus defense in the corner. Even James Outman has had high quality seasons in the past and deserves a look with his quality defense over Larnach(though he will have to fix that hole in his swing). To me the outfield should be: LF: Roden/Martin Platoon CF: Buxton/Outman RF: Wallner Minors: E-Rod & Jenkins will be ready this year With a young staff - I'd rather lean more reps for Wallner in the DH role than Larnach opening up more outfield defense for our young pitching staff. Let's see what we have for long term candidates versus guys who provide little value.

As we saw at the deadline outside of Duran - picking up quality bullpen arms is fairly manageable. I expect we will be turning some deals before the 40 man cut off to get at least one to two bullpen arms to shore up that front. As much as I like Mendez and Gonzalez- I see them as fairly similar prospects and it would make sense they could tag up in a deal (unless one of them magically adds 1B).

Bader is not going to pull back a hot prospect but could he pull in a quality reclamation project? I think of a guy like Kevin Parada who makes a lot of sense. Two years removed from the Twins almost drafting him and going 11th overall. Good change of scenary candidate and adds catching depth to the system.

Honestly I think the K rate is overblown. It's coming down a bit and you accept the good at the bad with Wallner/Buxton. These two already force the pitchers into uncomfortable positions and I think the at bats are fairly competitive even when they strikeout now. This was a bigger issue a year ago when the whole roster had inflated K rates, but outside of Castro the K rates are well down from a year ago. These hitters really put a lot of pressure on opposing pitchers which is exciting to see and I think adding a guy like Santana really helps offset your Buxton and Wallners in the lineup with his patient approach.

With a healthy Stewart I believe this team should be looking at postseason openers for most games. I think if Pablo shows more of what he’s done the past month we can say he’s back but overall the long ball is scary. I’d also feel better if Ryan/Ober were pitching Games 3&4 as they would matchup well there in a series. It’s a little unorthodox to have openers in the playoffs but we would have a deep enough bullpen with a healthy Stewart to justify a high leverage guy starting the game against your Gunnar Henderson, Aaron Judges, and Juan Soto’s of the world and allow starters to go deeper into games by only hitting the core guys twice. My opinion on having the offense bail you out just doesn’t really work in October. I can point to 15 years of Twins teams as examples with elite offenses that can’t overcome our mediocre starters. The Twins are going to have to get strategic to a whole new level if they are going to make a run.

This would be a classic Twins trade from the 2004-2017 eras where it’s a minor trade to help you in season, but not for the post season. That speaks volumes as to why the Twins didn’t win anything during that time frame in the postseason. Kikuchi is not a playoff starter. That’s pretty basic as his ERA and stuff are not good enough to pitch in October (as we saw last year against him). The only SP rental upgrades is Flaherty. A dream trade here would be Flaherty for Gonzalez & Raya (two fringe 100 guys). If the Twins will accept a guy with an extra year of term, Fedde, Eovaldi (w/vesting op), and Eflin are upgrades but I don’t see it happening with the state of the Twins finances. The reality is don’t settle for someone who can’t help you in October. You may as well just roll with Paddack or a young guy otherwise.

None. Kikuchi is not a playoff starting pitcher (backed by statcast and last years usage against us). Bassitt is a safe playoff #4 pitcher but we can’t do that salary next year. Gausmann would be way too much of a gamble for the Twins as his statcast is horrific and the contract is not realistic for the Twins. The Twins will only do expiring or a early/pre-arb guy based on next years cash crunch.

Look at some of the early returns from quality pitchers like Berrios & Gausman. You can even go back in time and look at Glavine & Clemens (no suggesting he is that good but for debuts). The reality is that pitching requires major adjustments coming from AAA to the Majors. Unless you have otherwordly stuff like Skenes, you have to make adjustments to your stuff to keep missing bats. He's going to go down and work on much of this as the straight fastball is already a known issue. Sacrificing a little velocity for more movement I would assume is the way here.

Honestly hoping for a Wallner + lottery ticket for Erik Fedde type deal. Win for both teams. Twins get a #3 Playoff starter with great peripherals that doubles as insurance in case of an injury.

I think it’s smart to note that deadline sellers overwhelmingly win the WAR game thanks to duration. The Twins could have a 10+ WAR swing in the Nelson Cruz trade for Joe Ryan when it’s all said and done, but the trade from the Rays side will always make sense when trying to win that year, The bigger question is does the asset brought in fulfill the role needed IMO. I think it’s also important to address that 40 man crunch candidates that we have offloaded in trades have resulted in some of the guys in the article being shipped out. The Falvey era has led to an infusion of major league quality players on the farm and that has made the 40 man discussions that much harder in recent years. Even looking at MLB Pipeline’s Top 30, that is a deep list of good players that we can’t possibly fit on a 40 man. Leveraging those tweeners from our depth helps a lot with these trades but also is a necessity of the prospect development improvement of the Falvey era.

To be clear- something is wrong with the hitting methodology deployed in 2023 and 2024. Veterans have had historically poor seasons now with a lot of evidence only to be saved by an unparalleled class of prospects last year. Now two of those same players have been in the MLB level hitting program and Julien/Wallner both aren’t quite themselves this year. This comes down to two things for me: 1) Lack of situational hitting: this team is horrific when it comes to understanding scenarios. Moving runners, putting the ball in play with no outs and a runner on third, etc. two often we see a Buck strikeout here putting double plays or a final out in play. This has to be buttoned up moving forward. 2)Lack of a Strength Based Approach: Every hitter is different and this team needs to put there success profile at the forefront. This hitting model is perfect for Jeffers, but obviously isn’t for Kiriloff/Correa/Julien. These guys are great at going the other way with the baseball and we want to ensure we aren’t screwing with their methodology that makes them successful. Going up and trying to pull homers everytime hasn’t really worked since the juiced ball. It’s time to manufacture runs based on everyone’s strengths.

I think the challenging part would be the opt outs as we still have five years of control here. Paying 3-4x as much as going the traditional route for an opt out in Year 7 makes no sense IMO. I think the Twins have all the leverage here with these five years of control and Royce’s health issues. If they can get them to be team options instead then I would be 100% on board (a bumped up version of the Polanco deal). Otherwise- I think you let this play out. He’s had so little experience in the league too that I’m curious how pitchers adapt to him this year anyways. Year 8/9/10 team options for 25/27.5/30 feels like we could get it done.

If the Brewers are in sell mode, I’d trade Brooks Lee, Joe Ryan, and David Festa for Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta.

Alonso is a fun player and one who fits the Twins……just not on a one year deal for Rodriguez. A top 50 prospect can net a frontline starter (as evidenced by your Scherzer and Verlander points) which is more sorely needed for this roster. If you could net Alonso for Kiriloff or another upside prospect I’d be interested but right now I think we need to focus on shoring up the playoff quality pitching with our limited funds and prospect capital.

Depth is great but it doesn’t win in October pitching wise. The Twins for the first time in 17 years came in with a frontline starter into the playoffs who can matchup against other teams starters (they had two). Shocker- they won playoff games. The Twins will need to acquire or buy another frontline starter this offseason with Gray departing at minimum. Depth is great for finances and winning in the regular season. Constantly being able to churn out competent back of the rotation starters is very valuable for winning consistently because you can invest your money on frontline pitching. Guys like Ryan, Ober, and Varland make life a lot easier on minimum deals so you can drop 20+ on Pablo and another 20+ on another top guy. If we can magically learn how to churn out one homegrown frontline starter, we will be major contenders.