Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects: #1 Walker Jenkins, OF

[Nick Nelson]

By virtue of a randomized draft lottery, the Twins lucked their way into Walker Jenkins with the No. 5 overall pick last year. In doing so they added a prized prospect to the top of their system and, perhaps, a new franchise centerpiece.

Age: 18 (DOB: 2/19/2005)
2023 Stats (Rk/A): 115 PA, .362/.417/.571, 3 HR, 22 RBI
ETA: 2026
2023 Ranking: NR

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: 13 | MLB: 10 | ATH: 15 | BP: 16

What's To Like
At this point? Everything. Walker Jenkins was considered a "1-1" player in the draft (worthy of taking first overall) because he, like four others with that billing from the loaded 2023 class, excels at everything and projects achievable superstar potential. Aaron Gleeman aptly describes Jenkins as looking "like he was built in a lab to play baseball, with a physical, athletic 6-foot-3 frame and a smooth left-handed swing that already produces big-time power."

That swing and power earned Jenkins rave reviews as a prep star in Southport, North Carolina. In glancing through some highlights from his days at South Brunswick High School, it's not hard to see why Bryce Harper comparisons took root for the lefty-swinging outfielder, who's also drawn parallels to fellow North Carolina prep standout Josh Hamilton and Hall of Famer Larry Walker. 

 

The Twins were thrilled to get Jenkins with the fifth pick, going slightly over-slot to sign him for $7.14 million soon after. The 18-year-old sealed his rep as one of the truly elite prospects in the game by dominating his pro debut, posting a .989 OPS in 26 games between the rookie-level Florida Complex League and Single-A Florida State League. His huge power was on display with three homers, four triples and five doubles in 116 plate appearances, but at the same time Jenkins struck out out only 12% of the time in his first exposure to pro pitching. His compact swing helps him get to the ball with lightning quickness and catch up to high velocity.

A combination of contact and power skills puts Jenkins in rarefied air, and he rounds out his hitting prowess with a true five-tool skill set. He can run, he can track down the ball in the outfield, and he's got a big arm. His baseball IQ, makeup and leadership receive tremendously high marks. Jenkins is the full package.

 

What's Left To Work On
As great as everything looks right now, Jenkins has a long way to go. He has proven his superiority over players in high school and the lowest levels of the minors but there are many upshifts in competition ahead, and many more hurdles for Jenkins to overcome. 

First and foremost, he needs to stay healthy. That has been a challenge for many of the club's highest-drafted and highest-ranked prospects in years past, ranging from Royce Lewis to Alex Kirilloff to Byron Buxton. Jenkins has already endured some injury issues in his high school career – he underwent surgery for a hip impingement as a freshman, and suffered a broken hamate bone during his senior year – but he was obviously healthy after signing last year. There's nothing about his build or approach that would suggest durability is going to be a concern.

From there, it's just a matter of handling more advanced pitching at each level, but Jenkins is well suited for the task with a plate approach that's going to be exceedingly tough to solve. Right now the outlook for his bat is less in question than the outlook for his glove. Jenkins played center field in high school and made all of his defensive starts there in the minors last year, but will he stick?

The Twins seem somewhat bullish on that idea, and Jenkins is fast enough that you can't rule it out, but most scouts feel he will outgrow the position and end up in an outfielder corner. That's not necessarily a big deal, because his bat projects to be a big asset anywhere, but obviously it's fun to dream on Jenkins putting up huge offensive numbers as a center fielder a la Mike Trout. 

For the time being, he figures to keep getting most if not all of his starts in center field, where his defense is currently a strength.

What's Next
Presumably Jenkins will pick up where he left off last year, playing in the Florida State League for at least the first few months. If he keeps performing the way he did during a 12-game stint last year, the outfielder could earn himself a promotion to Cedar Rapids once the weather gets warmer. Arriving at Double-A by year's end is not totally out of the question; such an ascent would likely place Jenkins among the game's very elite prospects. 

The baseball world is watching Jenkins with awe and anticipating big things in 2024. MLB.com's top prospect experts Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo both predicted he'll be the best hitter in the minors this year.

"I feel like, in general, fans maybe underappreciate him a little bit because he was only the fifth pick in the Draft last year," said Callis. "He’d clearly be the number one pick in a lot of drafts. ... I mean, there’s not much this guy can’t do."

Twins Daily 2024 Top Prospects Countdown

20. Zebby Matthews, RHP
19. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
18. Ricardo Olivar, OF
17. Connor Prielipp, LHP
16. Matt Canterino, RHP
15. Yunior Severino, 1B
14. Danny De Andrade, SS
13. C.J. Culpepper, RHP
12. Kala'i Rosario, OF
11. Luke Keaschall, 2B
10. Tanner Schobel, 2B
9. Brandon Winokur, OF
8. Charlee Soto, RHP
7. Cory Lewis, RHP
5. David Festa, RHP
4. Marco Raya, RHP
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
2. Brooks Lee, SS
1. Walker Jenkins, OF

Let's hear your thoughts on No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins! You can check back tomorrow for a full recap of the list plus key takeaways as we head into the 2024 season.

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[olerud]

It's all about staying healthy the sky is the limit for this kid!

[Jocko87]

Whew, the suspense was killing me!

[Mike Sixel]

Second favorite player last year, so I was thrilled he was there at five. I really do believe he could be in the majors in 25.... But I won't be disappointed if it's the following year

[Cory Engelhardt]

Timelines for high-end guys on when to move up a level or not are just so hard to guess. He certainly could start at the FSL/low A and be there for 2 whole months to start the year, but I could see high A cedar rapids even faster if things go well. AA by the end of the year feels fast, but that's only because there aren't that many ELITE level prospects to compare him to. 

It will be fascinating to see how this year goes for him. Wishing for good health. 

[strumdatjag]

Is it looking like he starts the season st Cedar Rapids?   If so, I may plan a trip to see him play. 

[tony&rodney]

The hype is huge but Jenkins would benefit from a week in MLB camp to see that the road ahead is hard work. He just needs to keep healthy and play. 

[Nashvilletwin]

Here’s my advice Roy, I mean, Walker: avoid creepy attractive women on trains. Everything else will take care of itself. 

[jimbo92107]

Like a gunshot. That's the sound his bat made in the first video clip when it met the baseball. Like a nice, simple 12 gauge shotgun shell. Walker Jenkins does have a hit tool. 

[arby58]

On 2/13/2024 at 11:20 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Timelines for high-end guys on when to move up a level or not are just so hard to guess. He certainly could start at the FSL/low A and be there for 2 whole months to start the year, but I could see high A cedar rapids even faster if things go well. AA by the end of the year feels fast, but that's only because there aren't that many ELITE level prospects to compare him to. 

It will be fascinating to see how this year goes for him. Wishing for good health. 

The two logical comparisons are Mike Trout and Bryce Harper. 

Trout was 17 his first year, where he had 207 plate appearances between Rookie and Low A ball with an OPS of .905. Harper didn't play Rookie league ball, at 18 he started at low A and in 305 plate appearances put up an OPS of .977 - they then promoted him to AA, where it's not surprising that in 147 plate appearances the OPS dropped to .724.

For comparison purposes, Jenkins, at age 18, had 115 plate appearances between Rookie and low A league ball and put up an OPS of .989. 

Next year will be interesting for comparison. Jenkins will be in his age 19 and first full season. 

At 19, Harper went to AAA and in 84 plate appearances had an OPS of .690 - nothing to write home about. The Nationals either saw something they like or promoted him out of necessity, and in 597 plate appearances he had an OPS of .817, with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases.

Trout's age 18 progression was a bit more normal, as he started in low A, and in 368 plate appearances put up an OPS of .979 - more than enough to be promoted to high A, where in 232 plate appearances he put up an OPS of .821. My guess is this is sort of the path Jenkins follows for this year.  Then, in his third (age 19 season), he started at AA, got a late-year call up to MLB.  He started the next year at AAA for 93 plate appearances,  had an OPS OF 1.091, was called up to MLB, and was rookie of the year with 30 HRs, 83 RBIs, 49 stolen bases, and an OPS of .963. I'd be perfectly fine with Jenkins following the Trout progression, which would mean the majors at age 21 versus Trout's 20. It would also mean a late season call-up in 2025 and then hitting the ball hard in MLB in 2026.

[roger]

My question, Nick, will he play for the Twins before the end of this season?

Mickey Mantle broke into the show as a 19 year old.  Someday there will be another Mantle.  I ask, why can't it be Jenkins?  Sure would be nice seeing him in a Twins uni and playing left field come September.

[nicksaviking]

12% strikeout rate, from a HS kid, in pro ball. Insane.

When guys are delayed in the system, it's usually due to a number somewhere near 3x that rate. If he reaches AA before August, I hope they have one of those fancy new big money extensions waiting for him in his locker.

 

[HerbieFan]

Just look at the picture.....geez, the kid is only 18 and already LOOKS the part!!  Then watch video of the swing.  IMO Walker Jenkins is untouchable in trade talks.

[Karbo]

I'd love to see them be aggressive this year and try to get him a taste of AAA. Debut for the Twins in '25?

[DJL44]

I saw another evaluator before the draft use Kyle Tucker as a comp. I think Jenkins is producing better than Tucker at the same age.

[Fatbat]

What if Mantle is his comp? These kids are doing special things lately. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

24 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

If he reaches AA before August, I hope they have one of those fancy new big money extensions waiting for him in his locker.

Still a Boras guy, which makes me doubt he'd accept that. Maybe he agrees to a Bobby Witt-style contract that has a bunch of opt outs after a couple of FA years? 

[jmlease1]

people keep using guys like Larry Walker, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper to describe Walker Jenkins. That's really exciting. I hope at the end of the season we're still thinking the same way.

It'll be interesting to see how he does now that teams are going to start getting tape on him and him might start facing more advanced pitchers. I suspect he won't be long for low-A.

What does he have to work on? Uhh...baserunning, maybe? Only 66% success rate stealing bases. Slacker. We'll know more about whether he has things he really needs work on after this season. Will he have any splits? Can they get him to chase sliders out of the zone? can he stay healthy and impactful in the grind of a full professional season?

I mean, right now he's passed every test, and he looks like freakin' Captain America out there. He could have been the #1 overall pick in most drafts. We're trained a bit to have things go sideways with our best prospects...but maybe he's the guy that has the extra bit, the faerie dust that keeps him healthy and rolling and he doesn't get derailed by injuries or suddenly has an exploitable hole in his swing. Maybe he's just one of those guys.

I think the Twins will push him exactly as hard as he's ready. He'll get a month or 2 in Ft Myers and then roll up to cedar rapids when it's not so cold. And if Wichita is pushing for the playoffs and Cedar Rapids ain't...maybe he finishes the year in AA. I don't think it's crazy at all for him to end the year in AA if he stays healthy.

Could he be a Twin in his age 21 season, like Joe Mauer?

I love the Larry Walker comp, and while I know people associate him with injuries...Larry Walker played in 130+ games 10 seasons (and it wasn't his fault he only got 103 in 1994; blame the owners for that!). Give me Larry Walker Jenkins, please!

[blairpaul715]

Can we sign him to a 15 year, $200M contract already!!!!!

[DocBauer]

What's to like? Everything so far.

What's not to like? No crystal ball to see when he arrives and just how good he might be. The anticipation is almost painful.

But he's still a 19yo kid with a couple dozen professional games so far. He still needs experience and at least a little polish here and there.

He makes it to the Twins in 2026 as a 21yo it's absolutely huge!

But it's hard to be patient when he looks this exciting. 

[bjorks]

Such a loaded class. Hard to think between Langford, Crews, and maybe Clark, any of them were/are consolation prizes and it would be an interesting if the FO would've been disappointed in any of them or even if Skenes fell to 5. With Lewis and Jenkins taking the Twins into the 2030's, is it too early to think of what to call them? 

[jkcarew]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I saw another evaluator before the draft use Kyle Tucker as a comp. I think Jenkins is producing better than Tucker at the same age.

Yeah…I like that. Leading bWAR player on the team that beat us in the playoffs last year.

I’d rather not be talking about Mantle, Trout, Harper. If Jenkins is the most gifted kid to come in the past decade, we would still have a 95% chance of disappointment if that’s our current bar for him.

Does he have a higher ceiling than Tucker? Seems like it at this early stage. But I’d take the Kyle Tucker comp and no major injuries…in a heartbeat.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would be disappointed if he isn't a call up to the ML team in September of 2025. At the least.

[jkcarew]

25 minutes ago, bjorks said:

Such a loaded class. Hard to think between Langford, Crews, and maybe Clark, any of them were/are consolation prizes and it would be an interesting if the FO would've been disappointed in any of them or even if Skenes fell to 5. With Lewis and Jenkins taking the Twins into the 2030's, is it too early to think of what to call them? 

Weird to think that Lewis is SIX YEARS OLDER than Jenkins.

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, bjorks said:

Such a loaded class. Hard to think between Langford, Crews, and maybe Clark, any of them were/are consolation prizes and it would be an interesting if the FO would've been disappointed in any of them or even if Skenes fell to 5. With Lewis and Jenkins taking the Twins into the 2030's, is it too early to think of what to call them? 

I can't imagine any of them are regretting their picks either.

Well, maybe the stupid Tigers. Wrong high schooler suckers!

Nope, not worried about that being a jinx, Jenkins' talents are superior to my sorcery.

[kroll]

I looked at Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, Fernando Tatis, Corbin Carroll, and Gunnar  Henderson and from what I saw they all debut In MLB 3 years after being signed/drafted.

I looked because I thought maybe the younger MLB players were starting to make an impact much sooner than in the past (influenced by the NFL I suspect).

Wishful thinking and little patience. Oh well, I taught myself something I guess.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[weitz41]

Exciting player and prospect.

I'll wait till after this season to order the bronze statues for target field. Don't get me wrong, Buxton and Maurer comps apply no doubt. Let's let the kid (young man) play. Prospect ranking are fun and pump me up about Twins prospects but overzealous expectations can easily crush a player's confidence. I'm sure I'll get some down votes..of hands..but as I said.

Let's let the kid (young man) play.

[nclahammer]

I look forward to catching him in Cedar Rapids this summer.

[Trov]

I see the team keeping him FL out of spring mainly to have the bigger facility and warmer weather to keep working on things.  Then, unless injury or poor performance, he will move to to high A end of May.  If he crushes there I could see him get to AA by end of July.  The hype on the kid is crazy, and I hope he can make it there. 

[HrbieFan]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Second favorite player last year, so I was thrilled he was there at five. I really do believe he could be in the majors in 25.... But I won't be disappointed if it's the following year

This is one prospect that I hope the Twins do challenge and be aggressive with his promotions. He has proven he can mash the FSL league, why start him there? No reason he isn't at AA in August if he produces.