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Most 18-year-olds are pretty useless. I mean, @Matt Braun, at 18, was entering his Freshman year of college, and he didn't end up doing much that year outside of playing Mario Kart with his buddies on the weekend. Stone sober, of course. Classes? Don't need them; I was feeling tired anyway. That's your average 18-year-old: draining society with their laziness.
Walker Jenkins is not average. After taking the Twins down to the wire in contract negotiations, he suited up for the FCL team and hit .333/.390/.537, leading to Minnesota's decision-makers declaring that they've seen enough. Jenkins was sent to Fort Myers when short-season ball ended, and he has since slashed an even better .447/.488/.684, with one strikeout. One. Hey, at least I was a menace on Rainbow Road.
His performance so far has been impressive—probably even beyond what the wildest optimist could conceive—so let's look at the numbers and see if we can find some historical comparisons for the terror out of North Carolina.
40 plate appearances is a putrid sample size, but going back to 2006 (the extent of Fangraphs' minor league data), no one tops Jenkins' 1.112 OPS as an 18-year-old at A-ball. Some of his close contemporaries are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto... Domingo Santana... and Giancarlo Stanton. Some players around him never became stars—that happens when you look at small samples in the lower minors—but there are also some undeniable superheroes, easy Hall of Famers, who shaped the game's landscape.
But stretching 40-plate appearances that thin, especially when some of these guys are sitting at 500+, is a dangerous game. Expanding the sample to all 18-year-olds with at least 100 plate appearances in a minor league season (conveniently, the number Jenkins has split between Rookie and A-Ball) gives us some interesting results.
The greatest 18-and-under batter in recent MiLB history was Malcom Nuñez, who hit for a Bondsian 238 wRC+ in Rookie Ball in 2018. He's now a fringe prospect with the Pirates.
So it goes. You'll still find guys like Joey Gallo and Nolan Gorman populating the leaderboard, but most young batters bashing in the low minors hit a wall somewhere in their future development, finding the older competition more challenging to dominate as all the boys mixed in with the men get filtered out eventually.
Still, Jenkins is 44th on the list by OPS, tied with Austin Riley as one of the best youngsters to eviscerate his peers thoroughly.
Most impressively, though, is that strikeout rate: most 18-year-olds only have a sporadic relationship with contact, finding the ball reclusive and tricky. Not Jenkins. Only one non-DSL hitter—William Bergolla of the Phillies—has a lower K-rate than him amongst 18-year-olds with at least 100 minor league plate appearances. Most are slugging at or around .400; Jenkins is at .579.
Honestly, I don't think his numbers can tell us much of anything at this point; you can strangle stats until they tell you what you want to see, but the reality is, plenty of 18-year-olds have appeared to be an unstoppable comet, streaking through the sky, seemingly unable to be stopped until some force (pitchers that aren't literal teenagers) kills their momentum. It happens. It can happen here.
So, be excited about Jenkins' tremendous start—lord knows I am—but practicing at least a little discipline may also be wise. Minor league stats can be informal, but they also often lie, leading to unrealistic expectations and dramatic levels of hype that can swallow you whole without you even realizing it. Jermaine Palacios once looked like an unstoppable force, after all.
Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
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- ToddlerHarmon, MN_ExPat, arby58 and 5 others
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