One Move Could Solve Multiple Offseason Problems for the Twins

[Nick Nelson]

And it doesn't even involve adding a player from the outside.

What if Max Kepler agreed to give it a go in center field once again, for the good of the team (and his own impending free agency)?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

While finding a playoff-caliber starting pitcher to fill Sonny Gray's void is pretty clearly Priority Number One for the Twins this offseason, it's no secret that center field is also a key focus with the looming uncertainty around Byron Buxton and the departure of Michael A. Taylor via free agency.

Many ideas and avenues have been shared for supplementing center field: signing a free agent (one down), making another trade, or simply relying on internal options like Austin Martin, Willi Castro and Nick Gordon. However, another option might be sitting right in front of the Twins, and it's arguably more appealing than all of the above.

It's been a while since he's given it a go out there, but Max Kepler has proven in the past to be a very capable center fielder. He has logged more than 1,000 MLB innings in center, albeit with a bulk of them coming in 2018 and 2019 when he was the primary fill-in for an injured Buxton. 

Kepler made 97 starts in center field between those two seasons, but has made only 21 since then, including zero since 2021. He's ceased to be anything more than an emergency option out there.

"The Twins have shied away from using Kepler in center field the past few seasons," according to The Athletic's Aaron Gleeman, "believing he wears down physically if asked to play there regularly and knowing that he prefers to stay in right field if possible."

Okay, but, what if he changed his mind? At least just for one year, given how massively it would benefit the Twins as a team? There are reasons to think Kepler might be amenable to altering his stance here, but first, let's talk about how it would impact offseason planning.

Right now, the Twins are known to be actively shopping Kepler, who has one year remaining under contract. They have depth behind him – namely breakout rookie Matt Wallner, who was clearly born to play right field – and also, shedding Kepler's $10 million salary could create flexibility to address other needs. Like ... center field.

Well, you're going to be hard-pressed to find a better fit for what the Twins need better than Kepler at remotely that cost – if he's up for the task. With the club feeling tempered optimism around Buxton's recovery, the best-case scenario would have Kepler splitting time between right and center to regularly spell Buck, who'd may be ticketed for 80 defensive starts. Not a bad little platoon! If things don't work out as hoped with Buxton, Kepler likely gets leaned on more in center, but untested or lesser players like Martin, Gordon and Castro are counted on less, representing an improvement over the current scenario.

Meanwhile, Kepler's time spent in center would open up right field for Wallner and his cannon arm, in turn creating opportunities in left for Larnach, Gordon, and maybe some wild cards. 

It's obviously a short-term solution, with Kepler under team control for only one more year. But that's all the Twins are really looking for at the moment. In so many ways, Kepler the center fielder for one year would be a godsend for the Twins.

So then the question becomes twofold: Can he do it? Would he do it?

Let's start with the first part because there is certainly an argument to be made that Kepler is simply not viable in center field anymore. It's a difficult one to disprove. His defensive metrics in center were more decent than great, which is about what you'd expect from an excellent right fielder sliding over, and he's a few years older than last time he played out there.

At the same time, Kepler remains a really good, rangy right fielder, ranking in the 86th percentile for Outs Above Average in 2023. He's lost some speed but still has quick reactions and tight routes to hunt down balls all over the outfield. Even if he wouldn't be a standout in center field, it seems likely Max could still hold his own.

 

Thus we arrive at our final and largest hurdle: would Max do it? Plenty of evidence suggests no. As Gleeman alluded, Kepler's preference to not play center field is no secret, and it's an area where management has clearly been willing to defer to the veteran. But for the impending free agent, there would be some clear upside in accepting this assignment.

First of all, there's the whole narrative thing: Kepler set aside his preferences and did what his team needed, at a time where they were attempting to make a breakthrough push. What a teammate! What a competitor!

More concretely, though, if Kepler can convince major-league front offices next year that center field is actually a valid tool in his repertoire – one that he's willing to use – his market figures to skyrocket. There's a huge difference between a right fielder who can post a 121 OPS+ versus a center fielder who can do so.

Maybe Kepler's aversion to playing center field is strong enough to outweigh monetary gain. Maybe the Twins truly don't believe he's a quality option in center field anymore. But given how brilliantly this one simple move would solve a variety of problems facing the Twins this offseason, I think it's an option that merits discussion.

What do you think?

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[Parfigliano]

Buxton playing 80 games defensively in CF is optimistic.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Having him as an option would be awesome. 

[Doctor Gast]

I admire versatility, but I admire honesty more. I know Kepler is a great RFer & maybe is a better LFer & that many have criticized Kepler for being proud & honest about his preference not to play CF. CF is much different from the cOF positions, He felt uncomfortable & not able to command that position. I admire his response & prefer his response over Jake Cave's response of ok I can do it (when he couldn't) & prevent us from getting someone who could. IMO when Kepler played CF his production went down, so at this point where he has found his groove, I wouldn't risk him to lose it. I wish Polanco was more honest to say when he's hurt - "I'm hurt" & not keep playing hurt, plus other things.

[nicholas Anderson]

I am not worried about CF. Between Martin and Keirsey you have two good defensive CFers.  Last year Taylor was 1.9 War and 94 OPS+.  He was making what, $10,000,000. I don't see that much of a drop off for a min. salaried player. 

[Major League Ready]

Lewis to CF would be even better.

[Brandon]

I think as a team player he should be open to some CF.  Not 80 games maybe 10-20.   I think we have plenty of in-house players for CF but for those must win games where we want maximum offense he could play CF and let Larnarch and Wallner start.  But I think Larnarch needs to show he can hit consistently before asking Kepler to move over.  
 

I was wondering if Lee could handle CF and play that and some IF in a call up to see what he can do.  

[Jocko87]

I've been beating this drum a bit for all these reasons but I never really made it clear that I only view it as part of the solution, say maybe 40 games. Understood that he probably is on the back side of his best centerfield days but he will still certainly be solid.

They also can't really talk about it in public just yet, this will be one of those things where the lineup posts and there he is.

[Fatbat]

17 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think as a team player he should be open to some CF.  Not 80 games maybe 10-20.   I think we have plenty of in-house players for CF but for those must win games where we want maximum offense he could play CF and let Larnarch and Wallner start.  But I think Larnarch needs to show he can hit consistently before asking Kepler to move over.  
 

I was wondering if Lee could handle CF and play that and some IF in a call up to see what he can do.  

I don’t think Lee has played OF. I could be wrong tho….

[Fatbat]

I doubt Kep would be willing and I would hope that we can find a better fill in when buck isnt out there. 
I actually believe buck will play alot of CF in 24’ so its an issue we wont need to deal with until we do and at that point, we have plenty of in house options. 

[Major League Ready]

I don't see much of a gain because we don't have corner OF depth.  Wallner can play right but a lesser player fills a corner OF spot if Kepler plays center.  The result is mediocre defense in CF and a mediocre corner OF bat taking Kepler's spot.  There has to be a better solution.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I was wondering if Lee could handle CF and play that and some IF in a call up to see what he can do.  

Brooks Lee is not known for his sprint speed. Willi Castro IS known for his sprint speed and was pretty good defensively in the outfield, probably better than I would expect from Kepler. Putting Kepler in CF would only make sense to get an extra bat into the lineup and unless you move Kirilloff back to LF and play someone else at 1B there isn't a configuration where Kepler in CF makes sense.

[Eris]

Do we actually know why Kepler has refused to play CF. He has had hamstring issues the past couple of years he might be an increased injury risk. The other possibility is quality of play at each position where he is much better in RF. 

[mikelink45]

I think he has already expressed his thoughts and this seems like an essay written because we have nothing else to talk about.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I.  But I think Larnarch needs to show he can hit consistently before asking Kepler to move over.  
 

 

The above is an important 3rd question that the Twins do not have an answer for. By moving Kep to CF, and playing an unproven Larnarch in LF, the Twins may be lessening all 3 OF positions defensively and offensively. 

[IndianaTwin]

18 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I think he has already expressed his thoughts and this seems like an essay written because we have nothing else to talk about.

Both Louie Varland and the front office have talked about him preparing as a starter and preferring that, but it hasn’t kept us from being inundated with discussion about whether he’ll start the season in the rotation or bullpen, so at least this one may have prevented another one of those…

[tony&rodney]

Kiermaier seemed like a possibility for a second or two but BB + KK = $26 million. I'm fine with Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin backing up Byron in CF. I might be more interested in the Twins adding a year to Kepler's contract than moving him off of RF. Hopefully in two years the Twins can bring up a prospect or two in the outfield.

I don't see any of Lee, Lewis, or Julien as outfielders and Kirilloff is best left at first base. One thing is becoming clear - the Twins have some guys who can provide offense and the team will need an improved run total this coming year. 

Depending on what happens with the media discussions, perhaps the Twins can add Rhys Hoskins as a 1B/DH bat. I know many people have suggested this and there is a maybe still out there. I think it is a possibility that may sign a one year deal in order to prove himself healthy and get back on the market next season. The Twins would be a good choice for him. For now, the Twins have stayed away from free agents due to cost, just never say never. I have been one person who has doubted a RH signing but I'm keeping all things possible.

[Karbo]

I'm still thinking Castro as the backup, at least for the 1st couple months. I also expect Martin to get some time out there.

[darin617]

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Buxton playing 80 games defensively in CF is optimistic.  

80 innings in center is optimistic,

[High heat]

We have been beating this horse for 2 years. asking for him to just spell Buxton in CF.  Don’t know if it’s just Kepler ( we know he opening says he prefers RF) or the organization as well.  Either way I think this option is completely off the table.

 

i going to guess they are going to be overly optimistic on Buxton and turn it over to him and Gordon and when Buxton goes down and Gordon struggles they turn to some combo of Kersey Martin.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think as a team player he should be open to some CF.  Not 80 games maybe 10-20.   I think we have plenty of in-house players for CF but for those must win games where we want maximum offense he could play CF and let Larnarch and Wallner start.  But I think Larnarch needs to show he can hit consistently before asking Kepler to move over.  
 

I was wondering if Lee could handle CF and play that and some IF in a call up to see what he can do.  

I don't know if Kep has always been a "team player",

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I'm still thinking Castro as the backup, at least for the 1st couple months. I also expect Martin to get some time out there.

Of all the in house choices, I like Castro best. I don't think he has hit his peak.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, nicholas Anderson said:

I am not worried about CF. Between Martin and Keirsey you have two good defensive CFers.  Last year Taylor was 1.9 War and 94 OPS+.  He was making what, $10,000,000. I don't see that much of a drop off for a min. salaried player. 

Taylor made $4.5M I believe, in ‘23.

Castro - Buxton - Gordon - Martin have CF covered, at least until the trade deadline, at a minimum.

I get defensive WAR and the need to not have a butcher in CF but it’s not like hiring a rocket scientist. We have capable guys under contract.

No need to create 2 issues by moving Kepler from RF to CF. He’s a proven, effective RF - leave him there. One of 3 guys in the game that hit .300 & have over 30 XBH after the break in ‘23!!

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I I were Kep's agent, I would argue that he should not take a chance on changing his position during the last year of his contract. It that experiment didn't work out, Kep may have cost himself millions of dollars as a free agent. He has repeatedly graded out extremely well as a defensive right fielder, and while CF is a more valuable position, I don't see Kep being as good defensively in CF as he is in RF. Plus it may be difficult for Kep to adjust to a new position, which he has said he did not want to play, which may affect his hitting, causing him to have to take a midseason, ALL-Star week vacation in the European alps again to forget baseball for a while.

[DocBauer]

Nick, it's an interesting idea, and it has merit, but I don't think it's an answer. I have little doubt Kepler can still play a solid, decent CF. He's not exactly old! But I feel it should be more of a "look, we know you can do it, and we just want to know you're OK and comfortable doing it for 20 games or so, especially early, giving us options there until some of the younger guys might be ready to help out".

I can absolutely see Martin ready to contribute mid season. Maybe Kiersey as a good defender and #9 hitter as well at some point? Even part time? Until proven otherwise, I'm still of the opinion the non-rostered Helman might surprise as another Castro-like super utility player who does a little of everything, can play everywhere, including CF. 

Castro, IMO, didn't look bad there, and seemed to get better. Gordon wasn't great there, but he also didn't look bad and seemed to improve. But in all honesty, I'm not sure Gordon makes the team, sorry to say as I've rooted for the kid for some time. But a half season of good ball, a horrendous begining to 2023, and coming off a broken leg and so much missed time, I'm not convinced he's part of the equation at all.

I think we should all remember that part of Kepler sticking only to RF is not only his preference...which is honest...but the feeling from the Twins was also a weaking of defense in RF as well. There was no net gain, and often a defensive negative. Now, I agree that Wallner is a true RF. I was very impressed with his improvements defensively while playing LF last year. And RF is smaller in Target Field for sure. But there are quirks in the stadium when playing RF that he will need time to figure out. 

But in the long run, other than a few games, especially early to let the younger players in AAA to grow, and Wallner time to learn RF nuances better, I just don't see the upside here. Castro gets more comfortable out in CF, Martin looks really good at St Paul, Keirsey might be able to help later on, Helman might be an option, etc, the biggest benefit I see is not Kepler as a full season backup CF option, but rather, someone who can give Buck a day off, buy time for development for the younger CF options, and let Wallner learn RF nuances for what will surely be his future position.

That's how I'd pitch it to Kepler. A little help early, but we're not going to ask you to play a lot there, wear down, be uncomfortable, etc, just give us a hand here and there.

BTW, I'm not sure having Taylor back for 2024 is the ideal solution. LOVE his defense! I think he'd steal more bases with a healthier back. Not sure if he could maintain the power he showed or not. I could live without the K's. But the Kiermaier signing seemed under slot based on a lot of projections. That might indicate Taylor being more affordable on a re-sign once the SP trade takes place.

I'm just not a fan of Bader, despite speed and defense. He has little power and doesn't hit or get OB enough. I'd be really interested in Tommy Edman from the Cardinals...if they're still open to trades...as a solid bat, overall performer who can play almost everywhere, including CF. But do the Twins already have the same player in Castro, Martin, and possibly Helman and Gordon?

The trade for Taylor last year was not only smart, but out of the blue. And I know Rocco...and I think the FO...wants a strong defender in CF. I do as well. But other than bringing Taylor back, I'm not sure there is an easy ADD to be betterthan what's on hand. 

And I just don't feel Kepler as the semi-regular in CF actually helps. He is solid there, but somewhat uncomfortable. He tends to wear down playing there extensively. Well hell, after he made a MAJOR adjustment last season...possibly a career changing adjustment...to just live with some more K's and JUST HIT THE DAMN BALL HARD, he suddenly looked like the player/hitter we've all been dreaming about for most of 8 plus years!

I'm concerned about CF, as we all are. I'm looking for help there, and the future. And I believe the Twins approach should be. "We need a CF for 2024" and bank on Buxton's health as gravy. I just don't believe Kepler is any sort of "easy answer" at all. In fact, I think he might be in a category all by himself. 

If he has ACTUALLY, FINALLY, figured out that he is so damn talented he can just adjust his previous approach, AGAIN, to live with more K's and hit the ball hard, I'm more worried about the Twins extending him, and not about messing with him playing an abundant amount of CF.

SORRY to be so long winded here. But there is a TON to unpack when we talk about CF and Buxton. And now Kepler is being brought in to the discussion as well. And talent vs 2 and 1/2 years of poor play vs potential and finally figuring it out is part of the discussion as well. 

I'm thinking the Twins might add a CF option after they add a SP. And it's still early enough that it might be Taylor, or they might make a trade, or they might just trust the talent on hand. But I don't believe it's Kepler on a regular basis for everything I've rambled about here.

 

[Brandon]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Brooks Lee is not known for his sprint speed. Willi Castro IS known for his sprint speed and was pretty good defensively in the outfield, probably better than I would expect from Kepler. Putting Kepler in CF would only make sense to get an extra bat into the lineup and unless you move Kirilloff back to LF and play someone else at 1B there isn't a configuration where Kepler in CF makes sense.

This is what I dont get, if Castro is good enough defensively at CF, why do we need another CF backup.  Castro had a .750 OPS and stole 33 bases.  Gordon then Kepler on the bench/ backup should be more then enough.

[h2oface]

If I'm getting paid around $10 million, I do what I am told by my boss. I don't think the boss wants him in center.

That said, I hope he just isn't traded. And they sign Snell.

[miller761]

2 years older than when he last played any significant time in CF. His offensive numbers will suffer. It will cost him money in free agency to play CF.

[Doctor Wu]

The post proclaimed that Wallner was "clearly born to play right field", but I've also read other posts that maintain the Twins keeping him left field is the best option. I'm not arguing about either one, because I'm honestly not sure which position suits him best. But I'm wondering why he might be better suited in right field. As for Kepler, I don't know if he'd be comfortable with that switch or not, but seeing as how we have Castro, Gordon and maybe Martin as CF options next season, I don't see a big need for Kepler to move over there too. 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

This is what I dont get, if Castro is good enough defensively at CF, why do we need another CF backup.  Castro had a .750 OPS and stole 33 bases.  Gordon then Kepler on the bench/ backup should be more then enough.

You don't if you are confident he can repeat that .750.  What if it's more like the two previous years?  (.624 & .651).   This strategy would be betting Castro hits at 2023 levels.  That would be great but I would not rely on this assumption.  Martin could be called up if Castro reverts to career norms so at least there would be a potential fall-back position.