The Twins Would Be Wise to Trade Kyle Farmer

[Cody Christie]

Kyle Farmer provided critical depth for the Twins during the 2023 season. Looking ahead to next season, the Twins would be wise to put Farmer on the trading block.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Last winter, the Twins didn’t have a clear option at shortstop. Carlos Correa tested the free-agent waters for the second straight season, and Royce Lewis was recovering from his second ACL surgery. Minnesota needed someone to man one of baseball’s most important positions, so the club traded for Kyle Farmer.

Farmer had spent the previous two seasons as a regular with the Cincinnati Reds, where he offered some defensive flexibility and occasional pop with his bat. Minnesota felt like Farmer could be a bridge player to keep shortstop warm until Lewis was ready to return. Correa’s free agency saga took many twists and turns before ending up back in Minnesota. His signing changed Farmer’s role for the 2023 campaign, but he continued to provide value.

Entering the season, Farmer had an 86 OPS+ for his career, finishing the season with a career-high 97 OPS+. He missed time during the season after taking a pitch to the face that required multiple surgeries. Farmer added depth across the diamond, including playing over 200 innings at shortstop, third base, and second base. The Twins were able to use him in Baldelli's platoon system, to fill in for injured players, and he more than held his own. Overall, it was a solid 2023 season, and the Twins might have more than one reason to trade Farmer this winter.

Farmer is in his final year of arbitration, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $6.6 million. To some, that might be a high salary for a bench player who doesn’t project to be in the lineup daily. For some perspective, FanGraphs has valued Famer at $11.9 million or more in each of the last three seasons, including $12.6 in 2023. Other teams will also understand his value, which might make him a hot trade commodity. 

There have been outstanding classes of free-agent shortstops in the last two winters. Fans might feel this is the norm, but that is far from the truth. There won’t be any names like Correa, Trea Turner, or Corey Seager on the market this winter. So, teams might look for alternative shortstop options similar to what the Twins did last winter. Farmer is under team control for a cheap one-year deal and can handle shortstop while a club waits for a younger player to take his place. 

The Twins also don’t need to rush into any trade involving Farmer. Last winter, the club traded Gio Urshela, and the trade return was underwhelming. Minnesota also shopped some of their corner outfield options but didn’t like the value they were getting from other clubs. It would be in the Twins’ best interest to hope for a bidding war, especially with the lackluster free-agent market. 

Minnesota’s infield depth chart looks relatively complete, even without Farmer. Correa should play nearly every day at shortstop, and Lewis will be next to him at the hot corner. Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien will both see time at second base, with Julien also figuring into the first base equation. Top prospect Brooks Lee finished the season at Triple-A and should be ready for a call-up by mid-season. 

Farmer provided a veteran leadership to the 2023 Minnesota Twins that shouldn’t be forgotten. His time with the team would have looked very different if Correa hadn’t returned to Minnesota. Instead, the Twins might be able to cash in on his final year of team control and help the club fill a different need for next season. 

Should the Twins trade Farmer? What is a suitable return? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[High heat]

I think it depends on the budget.  If we are cutting salary by 15 to 20 million Farmer is a guy who can be moved to save $ and is replaceable.
 

I would not move Farmer just to move him and I’m guessing there won’t be any teams willing to give up a bunch for him.  

[PatPfund]

Well, they need to trade or waive some players given the coming 40-man crunch. Farmer (as well as Polanco, Gordon, Larnach, Winder, Sands, etc) could be the piece or part of a package that brings back the most. You make a good argument, and Nick Nelson’s high upside pitcher would be a worthy target.

[old nurse]

The team probably has a plethora of fill in players. There is always budget issues. I could see them moving on from Farmer  Trading him is an option. The best you could hope for is a low minor league player that the Twins like and the other team doesn’t covet. The return would be something like a relief pitcher that throws in the low 90s  and a secondary pitch that needs work. There is no point to trading him for that.  Do Farmer a favor and let him be a free agent.

[Muppet]

Not just Farmer. Almost all position players not named Buxton, Correa, Lewis, and Julien should be considered trade bait. The Twins were a pretty good team. The only way they'll be a better team is if the upgrade their current roster. They have the chance to sell high on a lot of the guys. 

[jorgenswest]

What is the demand? The supply is low as starting shortstops are not hitting free agency. Doesn’t that mean the demand will be low?

The Marlins are looking for an upgrade but they are trying to upgrade from Berti who is the same age which slightly above average defensive metrics and an OPS+ of 103. Farmer would be a downtown grade. For comparison Berti’s BtV value is 11.4 and Farmer’s is 1.6. Rosario is 9.8. I think only Mondesi in your tweet is lower. 

In the top 30 MLB pipeline there are 12 shortstops including 5 of the first 11. Ten of those have an ETA of 2024 or played at the end of last season. The Giants may move on from Crawford but they have one of those top SS prospects. The White Sox may move on from Anderson but they have one too. The Dodgers need a SS but they aim for the World Series. I think they will set their sites higher. I don’t see the demand and it may have been easier to trade Farmer last year when several teams lost a good starter and the demand was high.

Farmer’s value at BTV value just below Balazovic, Headrick and Sabato. It might be a toss up whether to tender him and DFA someone else. They can trade him at the expense of someone like Balazovic but there is no gain. They will end up getting back in trade about what they lost.

I think it is reasonable to expect a return similar to what they received for Urshela or traded for Farmer.

[minman1982]

19 minutes ago, Muppet said:

Not just Farmer. Almost all position players not named Buxton, Correa, Lewis, and Julien should be considered trade bait. The Twins were a pretty good team. The only way they'll be a better team is if the upgrade their current roster. They have the chance to sell high on a lot of the guys. 

I agree. They should be open to almost any deal that will make this team better. I would even consider a high-end starting pitcher for Buxton (this will never happen because of Buxton's injury history and contract).

[sun]

Farmer deserves more PT & not re-signing Solano could lead to needing him to play more making him valuable to the Twins. Lewis seems to be somewhat injury prone & until he proves to be more durable it's a good idea to keep Farmer. I suppose if the trade were good enough then Farmer is as expendable as anyone. But if the Twins end up buying out Polanco then Farmer should be kept on the roster. Farmer could also be platooned at 1B.

[EGFTShaw]

I suspect the Twins are open to trading just about anyone if its the right deal.

No one should be considered un-tradable.

That said, there are several players, GS Lewis for example, that we need to have our socks knocked off.

I think we are past the time where we, The Twins, unloaded players just to save salary or before they become a FA.

Now we can move people, like we did with Arraez last year, to make our team better.

I like our depth, but we have depth behind our depth at the moment, that can allow us to move some pieces to improve out club.

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

The team probably has a plethora of fill in players. There is always budget issues. I could see them moving on from Farmer  Trading him is an option. The best you could hope for is a low minor league player that the Twins like and the other team doesn’t covet. The return would be something like a relief pitcher that throws in the low 90s  and a secondary pitch that needs work. There is no point to trading him for that.  Do Farmer a favor and let him be a free agent.

Normally I would agree with you on the return.  But teams like the Dodgers and Miami really need a SS.  So I think they can do better.  I would guess a 6-10 organization prospect or something close to that range of a prospect or he could be packaged with a prospect or two for something more.  It’s good to have a surplus when the industry has a shortage of options.  

[Brandon]

41 minutes ago, sun said:

Farmer deserves more PT & not re-signing Solano could lead to needing him to play more making him valuable to the Twins. Lewis seems to be somewhat injury prone & until he proves to be more durable it's a good idea to keep Farmer. I suppose if the trade were good enough then Farmer is as expendable as anyone. But if the Twins end up buying out Polanco then Farmer should be kept on the roster. Farmer could also be platooned at 1B.

They will not buy out Polanco as he too would be leaps and bounds ahead of the free agent class of 2B.  He could be traded instead of Farmer.  But with the build up of ready players, I suspect someone gets moved.

[Brett]

I would bet the Twins offer arbitration to Farmer and sign Polanco both. Maybe by spring training, there will be an injury somewhere that opens up the trade option. 

Lee and Martin will certainly be in St Paul to start the year, then we’ll see if one of their performances merits a change.

[Mike h]

I can't say for sure, and I don't exactly know why I feel this way, but I suspect that Farmer's presence on the team helped make the other players better.  Something about his leadership, professionalism, character, and the way he went about his business of preparing for games, makes me wonder if his absence might result in some regression next year.  Hate to mess with good chemistry. I'd keep him, just in case AK 's shoulder is not ready, or someone inexplicably fails like Miranda did this year. He is proven, dependable, flexible, and likable. To me, that's low risk, and that's hard to find. If next June or July someone at AAA can't be ignored, then make the inevitable decision.

[tony&rodney]

Farmer is an easy decision for me. The Twins keep him unless there is a really good offer which clearly improves the team.

As far as value is concerned, this is determined by each team. You might like Anderson, Berti, or another shortstop better than Farmer but we just don't know. 

The Twins get a ton of value from Farmer and they are in a win-win situation, either he stays and helps the team or is traded for a player who helps them even more.

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, Mike h said:

I can't say for sure, and I don't exactly know why I feel this way, but I suspect that Farmer's presence on the team helped make the other players better.  Something about his leadership, professionalism, character, and the way he went about his business of preparing for games, makes me wonder if his absence might result in some regression next year.  Hate to mess with good chemistry. I'd keep him, just in case AK 's shoulder is not ready, or someone inexplicably fails like Miranda did this year. He is proven, dependable, flexible, and likable. To me, that's low risk, and that's hard to find. If next June or July someone at AAA can't be ignored, then make the inevitable decision.

Weren't the same things said about Gio last fall? They are similar, but not identical players. Farmer is certainly more versatile, (although Urshela played short and first for the Angels) and has more power and more pronounced platoon splits. 

Farmer is 33. He can't afford to lose a step and continue to be an adequate middle infielder IMHO and he may lose that step. The Twins no longer really need him as a backup shortstop with Lewis and soon Lee on the major league roster. His value is enhanced due to the slim pickings in free agency. If the Twins can get appreciable value for him, they should trade him.

[yeahyabetcha]

I would not trade Farmer.  If they did, what are the chances that the return would help the team this coming year?

Also, who would replace his role on the roster?

Lewis? He already has a position.

Lee? Not even on the 40 man and likely won’t be when they break camp.

Gordon? No thanks.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, sun said:

Farmer could also be platooned at 1B.

This would be a waste of Farmer's value, which is mainly on defense. Trading him for a 1B bat (like Josh Bell of the Marlins) would be a better move.

[ashbury]

We acquired Farmer for a run of the mill relief prospect, Casey Legumina.  Kyle has been a good Twin but didn't do much this year to raise his stock.  I can't imagine getting much more than we gave up, if we trade him now.  Sure, move him if he's redundant, but the difference between trading him and simply releasing him will be slight; he won't be a key part of a trade for high-end pitching, say, any more than Legumina would have been.

[Dave Borton]

First, my '22 favorite, Arraez, gets a ticket out of the tundra. Now @Cody Christiewants to trade away my '23 fave. 

<Tears>...

 

[miracleb]

11 hours ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I would not trade Farmer.  If they did, what are the chances that the return would help the team this coming year?

Also, who would replace his role on the roster?

Lewis? He already has a position.

Lee? Not even on the 40 man and likely won’t be when they break camp.

Gordon? No thanks.

I agree they probably would not get help for the upcoming year....but an added bonus of trading him for a prospect is that it opens up another spot on the 40-man roster.

[IaBeanCounter]

38 minutes ago, miracleb said:

I agree they probably would not get help for the upcoming year....but an added bonus of trading him for a prospect is that it opens up another spot on the 40-man roster.

To me the added bonus is probably worth more than the trade piece.  If the Twins trade Farmer before 11/15 (?).  It opens a 40 man slot for a player they believe would be taken in the rule 5 draft.  It would be like getting 2 players for Farmer.

If a trade can't be done by 11/15, i wouldn't trade him unless someone is overpaying. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Farmer is probably the top of the list of "expendable" players for the Twins.  They really needed him last off-season with no depth or help on that side of the infield.  Then came the Correa signing, Lewis showed he can handle 3B, Polanco is serviceable at 3B, Castro... while they would lose their true backup SS, the depth is there.

I would be happy to have him back, but I think he could be part of a package that would bring in an upgrade at another position.

[nicksaviking]

I suspect any supply/demand issues regarding the shortstop market are only going to lead to minimal increase in return. I mean the Twins got him for a guy who wasn't even in their top 30 prospects. Even if the Twins now got some team's top 20-30 prospect, or a no-name reliever, would anyone care?

I'm all for trading him, but in the offseason, I'd guess they wouldn't get anything of value for him unless he's part of a package. Add Farmer to a higher profile trade to bump up the return. That's the avenue I'd explore. 

Or wait until next year when Lee or Martin are ready to take his spot on the roster and see if a team is desperate due to injuries. 

Also, I do NOT want Michael Taylor back next year. Hanging on to Farmer seems like a way to free up Castro for part time CF duty which would make it more likely Taylor won't be back.

[TopGunn#22]

First, it's only a matter of time before Lee is added to the 40-man roster.  That's a lock.  Farmer at 33 is expendable with what is coming through the pipeline.  With the Balley Sports situation, we're probably looking at a reduction in payroll until something emerges than can replace the $55 million the Twins are losing in revenue.  To even maintain our salary level is going to be very difficult.

That's why I think you will see guys like Lee and Martin sooner rather than later.  Farmer is a decent option for many teams needing a SS but the Dodgers won't be one of them.  They let Seager and then Turner walk because Gavin Lux was always their SS of the future.  He will be back and healthy in spring training.  They may hold on to Rosario as insurance, but unless they plan on continuing to play Mookie Betts at 2B I can see a Lux and Rosario SS/2B combo in L.A.

Because of the payroll crunch, I don't see Sonny Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer and maybe even Christian Vasquez back.  Kepler and Polanco will have their 2024 options picked up, but one or both are probably heading out as part of a trade package.  We finally won a playoff game, but there are still a lot of changes to come with the Twins roster.  

 

[Minny505]

Unless it's a payroll crunch, or the Twins get obvious excess value in a trade, keep him. His fit is so perfect on this team.

He's a top-shelf reserve IFer, who can platoon with Kirillof and Julien. He hit LHP really well last season and for his career (both better than Solano in every triple slash).

[dex8425]

I see one of Castro, Polanco, and Farmer needing to go. Out of those three, only two can play shortstop. Polanco isn't really an asset defensively anywhere and has the best bat of the three but also hasn't stayed healthy in years.  

Farmer and Castro are much cheaper than Polanco. I'd probably keep Farmer and trade Polo TBH because the return would be greater.

[dex8425]

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

First, it's only a matter of time before Lee is added to the 40-man roster.  That's a lock.  Farmer at 33 is expendable with what is coming through the pipeline.  With the Balley Sports situation, we're probably looking at a reduction in payroll until something emerges than can replace the $55 million the Twins are losing in revenue.  To even maintain our salary level is going to be very difficult.

That's why I think you will see guys like Lee and Martin sooner rather than later.  Farmer is a decent option for many teams needing a SS but the Dodgers won't be one of them.  They let Seager and then Turner walk because Gavin Lux was always their SS of the future.  He will be back and healthy in spring training.  They may hold on to Rosario as insurance, but unless they plan on continuing to play Mookie Betts at 2B I can see a Lux and Rosario SS/2B combo in L.A.

Because of the payroll crunch, I don't see Sonny Gray, Maeda, Solano, Farmer and maybe even Christian Vasquez back.  Kepler and Polanco will have their 2024 options picked up, but one or both are probably heading out as part of a trade package.  We finally won a playoff game, but there are still a lot of changes to come with the Twins roster.  

 

Vasquez signed a 3/30 deal last year so he will be back. Maeda and Gray are free agents but Farmer is not. 

[twinstalker]

So the Twins traded Casy Legumina  for a cheaper Farmer coming off a good year.  What do you expect to get for a slightly higher paid Farmer coming off a bad year?

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

So the Twins traded Casy Legumina  for a cheaper Farmer coming off a good year.  What do you expect to get for a slightly higher paid Farmer coming off a bad year?

I think both years were very similar. The slash stats favor 2023. Underneath those numbers is his ratio of at bats against left handed hitters. In 2022 when he was a regular he had a higher ratio of plate appearances against right handed batters which drove down his overall numbers. His fWAR in both years was virtually the same and both a drop from 2021.

I think teams would probably project some decline with the glove and bat and would not view him as a starter at SS but rather a useful veteran addition to the bench. The return should be similar.

 

 

[Rosterman]

Nams like Farmer and Gordon and Larnach could be on the bubble, packaged with some pitching names like Sands or Balazovic or Winder and another prospect to bring us something abck in trade, as well as open up a roster spot for an additional free agent signee.

Which also means names like Kepler and Polanco should have option pickups. Both have increased their value over a season ago, and if not worth more in the off-season, could be a trade piece in spring training, if the Twins retain roster flexibility.

You start moving assets that have some value, but that you have possible ready replacements in the pipeline.