4 Things That Went Wrong for the Twins in the Playoffs

[Nick Nelson]

Regression hitting like a load of bricks, key players failing to step up in favorable matchups, and regular-season warning signs coming to roost: These were the defining letdowns that led to Minnesota's postseason exit.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

I want to start by saying that, at long last, a lot went RIGHT for the Twins in these playoffs. They snapped a 19-year losing streak, they triumphantly swept the Blue Jays at home, and they made the defending champs sweat in the ALDS. You're not going to catch me calling this year a failure.

But at the end of the day, the Twins did come up short. And they did so in rather painful fashion, after Sunday night's victory set them up in very favorable position to come home and take control against the Astros. 

So here in this postmortem, we'll dissect four key things that went wrong for the Twins and led to their exit in the second round of the playoffs.

1. Legitimate fears came to fruition.

This is the banner headline that encapsulates several different subplots. The frustrating thing about Minnesota's most fatal flaws in the postseason is that, in many cases, they weren't that hard to see coming. These were concerns that long loomed in our minds, and caused apprehension as we looked ahead to the high stakes of October.

In particular, these are three striking examples of how our fears turned into reality.

The offense goes back into its shell: Performances like Tuesday and Wednesday were the team's calling card in the first half, as they compiled strikeouts at a historic rate and frequently no-showed in the runs column. Even with all the improvement in the second half, those kinds of games were still mixed in -- the byproduct of a lineup prone to striking out in bunches, and shriveling up in damage spots. 

Regression slaps Sonny Gray in the face: There were clear signs of unsustainability in the 33-year-old's phenomenal regular season numbers. Namely: Gray's penchant for wriggling out of jams and limiting home runs to an extreme degree. All that regression pretty much came to a head on one devastating pitch to Jose Abreu with two runners on in Game 3.

Alex Kirilloff playing hurt: The oft-injured first baseman missed all of August with a shoulder issue that seemed pretty serious, but made it back to play 19 games in September. His numbers were fine (.766 OPS) but Kirilloff hardly looked like he was at his best, and the team noticeably took it easy with his usage. Fears that his shoulder might still be bothering him were confirmed when AK exited Game 3 and was removed from the roster afterward.

2. Ryan Jeffers failed to live up to the team's hopes.

The Twins really put their eggs in the Jeffers basket, and understandably so. He had a tremendous season, ranking second among MLB catchers in wOBA and second among all Twins position players in fWAR. Rocco Baldelli figured he had a big advantage in being able to run out that kind of bat behind the plate, so he did so in all six games.

Unfortunately, Jeffers did not deliver, managing just two singles and two walks in 25 plate appearances. 

The decision to use Jeffers exclusively meant, in turn, that Christian Vazquez saw zero action in the entire postseason. Again, it's justifiable given how bad his bat was all season, but Vazquez was signed in large part for his seasoning on the big stages of Boston and Houston. He's battle-tested, but never got tested in this losing battle.

3. The lefty bats couldn't capitalize or cash in.

One of the biggest reasons for optimism around the Twins in these playoffs was how well their lefty-powered lineup was set up for success based on match-ups. Minnesota's ALWC opponent, the Blue Jays, threw two right-handed starters. The Astros brought a bullpen devoid of lefty arms into the ALDS. 

Players like Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were in a position to shine after hammering right-handed pitching all year long. With the exception of Julien, none did.

Kirilloff went 0-for-9 while playing hurt. Wallner was 0-for-8. Kepler went 5-for-23 (.217) with 10 strikeouts, one walk, one run scored, and zero batted in. He struck out looking at strike three to end the Twins' season on Wednesday, exploding into frustration as his lifetime playoff average dropped to .146.

4. Caleb Thielbar's biggest weakness came to bite him.

Thielbar has been a spectacular performer and awesome story in the Twins bullpen. Returning from pseudo-retirement in his mid-30s, he's put together one of the better multi-year stretches for a reliever in Twins history, posting a 3.21 ERA since 2020. 

He was really good once again this year, despite missing time with an oblique injury, but one issue haunted the left-hander: home runs. He gave up seven this year in just 30 ⅔ innings, with his fastball victimized most frequently.

Here, in contrast to Sonny Gray, you'd hope for a little positive regression; home runs had never really been a big problem for Thielbar in the past, and 30 innings is a small sample size. But the long ball was most definitely a problem for Thielbar in this ALDS.

In Game 1 he gave up a homer to Yordan Alvarez, extending Houston's lead from one to two in the seventh inning. That one hurt, coming immediately after Minnesota's offense narrowed the deficit in the top half. But it didn't hurt as much as the next one.

On Wednesday, Jose Abreu got hold of a 1-0 pitch from Thielbar -- a fastball -- and drove it over the fence in right for a tie-breaking (ultimately game-winning) home run. According to Baseball Reference it was the single most pivotal play of the series.

Mistakes and missed opportunities are magnified on the big stage in October. These are the ones that will have an outsized impression in my mind as I look back at this run and what could've been.

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[mike8791]

While I don't particularly like playing the blame game with individual performances, especially Gray and Jeffers, your #1 point really nailed it: :  this lineup could not produce runs.  Like the first half of the season, the playoffs saw a return to the all-or-nothing pattern.  With the exception of Correa and Julien, their lineup could not produce runs outside of HRs.

The big questions for the off season is: how do we get more professional hitters into the lineup and how do we change our offense philosophy?  While notable offensive improvement in the 2nd half was sparked by newcomers Julien, Lewis and Wallner and Kepler's surprising rebound, this lineup had too many weaknesses, especially in the pressure-packed playoffs.  Any offseason activity has to start with adding a cleanup hitter with proven ability to drive in runs.  Guys like Bellinger, Soto, or Goldschmidt would fit the bill.  And replacement of the hitting coach should be equally important.  If we rely on the rooks to continue to improve and hope for a Buxton/Kirillof/ Correa rebound,  I believe 2024 will be no better than this year.

There is a lot to look forward to, as many have said: Strong rotation(though one more solid#2/3 starter is essential), a stronger pen(again, some reliable closer-type to share w/Duran would be desirable) and one or two from AAA making a significant contribution gives us reason for optimism.  But this is all for naught if the offense is not fixed.  This should be at the very top of Falvine's list. 

[Streif Lightning]

You forgot the shadows, I blame the shadows!!!! Who constructed this place?!

[miracleb]

Jeffers over Vasquez all day, everyday.  A guy who has the potential to win a game for you verses a guy we know would go 2 for 25.  If there was a drastic difference in defensive skills.....I could change my mind.....but not seeing it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If I were Vazquez, I would feel embarrassed and disrespected.  I disagreed with not alternating him with Jeffers during the playoffs. That had proven to be successful for both catchers and the pitchers during the regular season. Rocco needs to have a long talk with Vazquez and frankly, admit that he (Rocco) had made a mistake in not allowing Vazquez to play, particularly against his former team, Houston. I know this is not Little League, but I'm afraid Rocco has created a problem for the next two years, if Vazquez is not traded to another team. 

[Coach Wheels]

The line up, the line up, the line up. The success of July and September probably made us forget the 1st 3 months of the season. Changes need to be made, certain veterans should move on. I think a bullpen of Jax, Stewart, and Duran is very exciting to think about but becoming "professional" hitters is essential to taking the next step. You cannot win important games striking out 14 times as a team. We gotta get better there.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

16 minutes ago, Streif Lightning said:

You forgot the shadows, I blame the shadows!!!! Who constructed this place?!

Shadows and cold weather and rain and snow would not have been a problem if the stadium had been built with a retractable roof. Just open the roof during the beautiful Minnesota summer days and close it during the uncomfortable for baseball, cold and wet Minnesota days. 

[David Maro]

The team's philosophy has to change or the future will be the same. And MLB has become a game of homerun. Watching the season and the playoffs showed teams with hats,jackets and vests. What happened to a pat on the back. The fan is as much to blame for the state of the game as well. They stare at their phones in the stands until a homerun is hit. Everyone has to realize if you get 500 AB's a season you can't and won't hit 100-125 homeruns.

[FlyingFinn]

When you play great teams/players, some things that improved against mostly weaker teams in the 2nd half of the season return to being a problem. We want less strikeouts by our hitters but many of our new hitters aren't exactly great at this (Lewis, Julien and Wallner) though they aren't any worse at striking out than most players on the team. The players who really strike out less that are actually possibilities of playing are Austin Martin and Jose Miranda. Very interesting off-season to see if trades are made to tackle this strikeout issue.

[Linus]

7 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

When you play great teams/players, some things that improved against mostly weaker teams in the 2nd half of the season return to being a problem. We want less strikeouts by our hitters but many of our new hitters aren't exactly great at this (Lewis, Julien and Wallner) though they aren't any worse at striking out than most players on the team. The players who really strike out less that are actually possibilities of playing are Austin Martin and Jose Miranda. Very interesting off-season to see if trades are made to tackle this strikeout issue.

I think you make a good point here. We were kind of lulled into thinking that our hitting process worked in the second half - regression to the mean. The most obvious answer was we were simply playing bad teams with bad pitching. The playoffs gave us a harsh reminder of what our offense looks like against good pitching. 

[arby58]

I appreciate your noting the accomplishments of this team - there were plenty, and the team has a young core that has the potential to play October baseball for many years.

ESPN has a column that explores reactions/over-reactions based on game results. I think some of the criticism is hand-wringing over a few games - small sample size is my first reaction.  Meanwhile, if you want to talk about a team that under-performed, how about the Atlanta Braves? They had what some were describing as the best offense ever in baseball, and they scored 8 runs in 4 games against the Phillies!

I would also note that Houston has a pretty good pitching staff as well. If there is a single trade in recent years that I regret the most for the Twins, it was sending Ryan Pressly to Houston for Alcala and Celestino. That one is never going to balance out for the Twins.

[hitterscount]

This team has a nice core of young players and a couple of productive/valuable veterans . The starting pitching should be very good again next year, especially if Paddock can stay healthy. The BP has a quality closer.

That said, they need a 1st baseman, three outfielders and one middle reliever. You cannot count on Kirloff and need to move on. Wallner maybe… but realistically Buxton is done and Kepler cannot be trusted in playoff games. So three outfielders are needed unless they believe Taylor is a starter. That’s a lot of pieces to add.
 

Also, still not sold on the manager, but winning a terrible central division and breaking the playoff losing streak keeps his job safe. Other than the last game I had no issues in his handling of any of the playoff games. Back to the last game… what was the plan if we tied or even managed a couple of hits and took the lead, the best arms were gone. Just didn’t understand pulling Ryan at the time and gopher throwing Theilbar backed that up immediately. 
 

The strikeouts are frustrating, but home runs seem to be the winning recipe in playoff baseball. It is hard to string multiple hits together against the quality pitching you generally face. Maybe a different approach with two strikes or when there are runners on base. Regardless, I do believe the future is bright if the front office makes some solid moves this offseason.

[umterp23]

Somewhat surprised that Jeffers did play every inning of every game in playoffs.  Rotational aspect of catching position was utilized this year and Jeffers was really good compared to years past.  Hard to ignore the .276, 14 HR, 43 rbi and so Rocco rolled the dice so to speak.  He did have some really hard hit balls for outs which would of, could of change the narrative.  I like the future with Jeffers.  Before the season if we had said .250+ avg, 10+ HR's and 30+ rbi's, the answer to the question would have been Vazquez by almost anyone you asked.  

Next year will be interesting, but $10MM per year overpay for Vazquez does hurt the wallet.  Looking forward to seeing how this plays out.  

[Platoon]

Scoring mostly via the HR is boom or bust…..  and good opposing pitching often turns it to bust. The lack of respect for the RBI stat is misplaced. True, you need runners in front of you to drive in. That said you also need to do that driving in. Best way to retire the Twins this year? Walk the bases loaded, then let the next three guts screw themselves into the ground trying to hit a 5 run HR!

[rv78]

You list 4 things but in all reality the only one that matters is the Twins couldn't get hits much less score when they needed to and that was due to their biggest flaw this season. Strikeouts. A couple of bad pitches wouldn't be impossible to over-come if the hitters could put the bat on the ball, get a hit, and score some runs. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If I were Vazquez, I would feel embarrassed and disrespected.  I disagreed with not alternating him with Jeffers during the playoffs. That had proven to be successful for both catchers and the pitchers during the regular season. Rocco needs to have a long talk with Vazquez and frankly, admit that he (Rocco) had made a mistake in not allowing Vazquez to play, particularly against his former team, Houston. I know this is not Little League, but I'm afraid Rocco has created a problem for the next two years, if Vazquez is not traded to another team. 

He’s a professional baseball player. There’s no apology needed. He’s getting paid better than he ever has. He was the back-up in Houston last year during playoffs.

He got every opportunity for 6 months to earn some amount of playing time in the post-season. Jeffers beat him out with a very nice offensive season. Just because Jeffers didn’t flourish in post-season doesn’t mean Vazquez should be apologized to for no playing time.

I like Vazquez. Thought it was a good signing!! He’s a terrific clubhouse/team guy and played really nice defense this year.

Potential to trade him is zero with his $10M per year deal. Jeffers is still very affordable, so Vazquez contract, combined with Jeffers is an OK number for 2 very capable catchers!

[PDX Twin]

17 minutes ago, Platoon said:

Scoring mostly via the HR is boom or bust…..  and good opposing pitching often turns it to bust. The lack of respect for the RBI stat is misplaced. True, you need runners in front of you to drive in. That said you also need to do that driving in. Best way to retire the Twins this year? Walk the bases loaded, then let the next three guts screw themselves into the ground trying to hit a 5 run HR!

Yes. Not a single single on Wednesday! Atrocious!

[JD-TWINS]

Thielbar is nearing the end - decent stats but his health is sketchy. Only 30 plus innings this year. High leverage capability is lessening.

Funderburk is solid - needs seasoning but should be the principal lefty in the Pen. Am hoping Moran can get his command under control as he can also be an effective guy during season.

Alcala, with health, will be a nice addition to next year’s Pen.

Pen out of Spring Training:

Alcala - Jax - Stewart - Funderburk - re-sign Pagan - Moran - Thielbar - Duran………maybe Winder instead of Moran?

[jccracraft]

24 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Somewhat surprised that Jeffers did play every inning of every game in playoffs.  Rotational aspect of catching position was utilized this year and Jeffers was really good compared to years past.  Hard to ignore the .276, 14 HR, 43 rbi and so Rocco rolled the dice so to speak.  He did have some really hard hit balls for outs which would of, could of change the narrative.  I like the future with Jeffers.  Before the season if we had said .250+ avg, 10+ HR's and 30+ rbi's, the answer to the question would have been Vazquez by almost anyone you asked.  

Next year will be interesting, but $10MM per year overpay for Vazquez does hurt the wallet.  Looking forward to seeing how this plays out.  

They need to lose Vazquez somehow.

 

[terrydactyls]

19 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

That said, they need a 1st baseman, three outfielders and one middle reliever. You cannot count on Kirloff and need to move on. Wallner maybe… but realistically Buxton is done and Kepler cannot be trusted in playoff games. So three outfielders are needed unless they believe Taylor is a starter. That’s a lot of pieces to add.

How about saving a lot of money by teaching Julien how to play 1B, and having Lewis, Martin, and Kiersey Jr. in the outfield?  Lee, Correa, Polanco, and Julien are the infield.  Use saved money for two things:  a couple bullpen arms and one or two hitters that don't swing for the fences.

[FlyingFinn]

26 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

Somewhat surprised that Jeffers did play every inning of every game in playoffs.  Rotational aspect of catching position was utilized this year and Jeffers was really good compared to years past.

I contend that Jeffers was very good this year Because they rotated catchers. I certainly see why they played Jeffers every inning but I wouldn't have had him starting in the 2nd game when they played on consecutive days.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If I were Vazquez, I would feel embarrassed and disrespected.  I disagreed with not alternating him with Jeffers during the playoffs. That had proven to be successful for both catchers and the pitchers during the regular season. Rocco needs to have a long talk with Vazquez and frankly, admit that he (Rocco) had made a mistake in not allowing Vazquez to play, particularly against his former team, Houston. I know this is not Little League, but I'm afraid Rocco has created a problem for the next two years, if Vazquez is not traded to another team. 

These are professional athletes, they don't need to be apologized to for not playing when the other option was clearly the better player all season. Who cares if Houston was his former team? Why would that have any impact on Rocco's decision? 

In what world should any manager look at the numbers below and feel like they should play Vazquez?

[jccracraft]

27 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

This team has a nice core of young players and a couple of productive/valuable veterans . The starting pitching should be very good again next year, especially if Paddock can stay healthy. The BP has a quality closer.

That said, they need a 1st baseman, three outfielders and one middle reliever. You cannot count on Kirloff and need to move on. Wallner maybe… but realistically Buxton is done and Kepler cannot be trusted in playoff games. So three outfielders are needed unless they believe Taylor is a starter. That’s a lot of pieces to add.
 

Also, still not sold on the manager, but winning a terrible central division and breaking the playoff losing streak keeps his job safe. Other than the last game I had no issues in his handling of any of the playoff games. Back to the last game… what was the plan if we tied or even managed a couple of hits and took the lead, the best arms were gone. Just didn’t understand pulling Ryan at the time and gopher throwing Theilbar backed that up immediately. 
 

The strikeouts are frustrating, but home runs seem to be the winning recipe in playoff baseball. It is hard to string multiple hits together against the quality pitching you generally face. Maybe a different approach with two strikes or when there are runners on base. Regardless, I do believe the future is bright if the front office makes some solid moves this offseason.

I still think Kiriloff has upside. I'm fine with running him back. Wallner to me should be a starter until proven otherwise. I'd like to flip out Kepler, selling high, and give Larchnach another try. The biggest need is a CF, one who can hit, maybe for less power, but gets on base and strikes out less. Regarding Rocco, I kind of agree. He over manages too much IMO.

[laloesch]

I don't disagree.  Taylor plays his heart out in CF but his bat is iffy at best.  Twins really need three outfielders and a 1st baseman and I would also add "a competent DH" that can actually hit.  No offense to Buxton, but i think he's just about finished. I suppose the Twins will let him hang around until his contract gets closer to expiration, but he's a sunk cost at this point.  You gotta feel bad for Buck too because the guy loves to play his heart out, just can't stay healthy.  Kepler salvaged his season towards the end, but I've not been impressed with him the last few years either.  

 

All that said the Twins need offense, offense, offense.

#1 priority - offensive hitting outfielders

#2 priority - 1st baseman

#3 DH (I don't know if fans really realize how much having no legit DH hurt the team offensively).

[JD-TWINS]

3 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Yes. Not a single single on Wednesday! Atrocious!

I agree. Bat to ball skills, particularly in tight situations, is what wins games! Need base runners - need to drive guys in when in scoring position.

We tied for league lead in HRs……don’t see a need for some big power hitter/RBI guy like Alonso! He hit 46 HR & his average was .217 - not the answer.

Wallner needs to get better or get moved next year. Need to make room for switch hitting Lee in the infield by mid-year next year. Lewis in OF may help strengthen line-up as a whole?Kirilloff needs to be healthy and he’s that RBI - bat to ball guy in middle of line-up. A guy like Lee hitting 6th would really lengthen our line-up.

I think we take the Gallo - Maeda - Mahle - Gray - Polanco $ available after this year & re-invest in pitching - STARTER……maybe Gray? $50-$52 million available between those salaries from this year’s total.

I really like and appreciate Donovan Solano but if we keep, as expected, Castro - Farmer - Taylor……..we may want our other guy to have more “potential pop” & additional speed off the bench. Donny was solid & there’s no perfect roster so resigning him and replacing him mid-season with youth may be a good move. Never can assume health - need capable depth!!

 

[JD-TWINS]

16 minutes ago, jccracraft said:

They need to lose Vazquez somehow.

 

He has a contract & they are on the hook for 2 more years. He’s a good defender - good guy - not statistically as good as he once was at the plate but a good 2nd option.

Nobody will trade for his offense & pay him $10M unless a first string guy gets hurt and they are desperate - very doubtful.

He can start 35-40% of our games the next couple years - somebody has to spell Jeffers. He’s a great bench/clubhouse guy and he handles pitchers well. He’s not a big part of our problems!

World Series winner with experience & a great attitude. Would like to see him get in better shape and it may help his play?

[BH67]

This is a spurious point statistically, but I'll state it anyway: the Twins won three times as many 2023 playoff games as the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Brewers did combined.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, laloesch said:

I don't disagree.  Taylor plays his heart out in CF but his bat is iffy at best.  Twins really need three outfielders and a 1st baseman and I would also add "a competent DH" that can actually hit.  No offense to Buxton, but i think he's just about finished. I suppose the Twins will let him hang around until his contract gets closer to expiration, but he's a sunk cost at this point.  You gotta feel bad for Buck too because the guy loves to play his heart out, just can't stay healthy.  Kepler salvaged his season towards the end, but I've not been impressed with him the last few years either.  

 

All that said the Twins need offense, offense, offense.

#1 priority - offensive hitting outfielders

#2 priority - 1st baseman

#3 DH (I don't know if fans really realize how much having no legit DH hurt the team offensively).

I don't think it's about not having a "legit DH" as much is it's about just not having any elite hitters. Maybe Julien or Lewis turn into those guys, but they aren't there yet. There were only 6 players in all of baseball who DHed more than 100 games this year. Ohtani was elite, and Soler, Ozuna, and JD Martinez were "legit DHs" in performance. The concern isn't not having a DH, it's not having an elite bat, or 2.

The top guys for the Twins would be hitting 5-9 on most playoff rosters. They need more 1-4 quality playoff bats no matter what position it is. Hopefully Lewis and/or Julien can reach those heights. But Correa isn't that guy. Buxton's career looks closer to being over than him getting to that stature. Kirilloff just can't stay on the field. Wallner is a 6-8 hole slugger. Martin is most likely a 9 hole "second leadoff hitter" type. Maybe Lee can be elite, at least as a lefty? Maybe ERod figures it all out? Maybe Jenkins goes on a Holliday type tear next year and is our Alvarez starting in 2025? The Twins have a bunch of good bats, but lack great/elite ones. They don't need a DH, they just need a legit top 20 in baseball type bat.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

39 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Potential to trade him is zero with his $10M per year deal. Jeffers is still very affordable, so Vazquez contract, combined with Jeffers is an OK number for 2 very capable catchers!

This.  Exactly this.  The total cost outlay for the position is completely fine.  Vazquez is more than fine for a backup catcher.  It doesn’t matter who the $$ go to if it works.  I’m sure it matters to their moms, but not so much to the Twins.

I was a little surprised that Jeffers didn’t get a game off (or partial one) just to give him a little breather, but on the other hand, Jeffers is young and should be able to bounce back quickly for playoff games. 

[arby58]

31 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

How about saving a lot of money by teaching Julien how to play 1B, and having Lewis, Martin, and Kiersey Jr. in the outfield?  Lee, Correa, Polanco, and Julien are the infield.  Use saved money for two things:  a couple bullpen arms and one or two hitters that don't swing for the fences.

I agree that moving Lewis to the outfield makes sense. I'm not ready to give up on Kirilloff - he was very effective when healthy and is still only 25 years old.  Julien may be able to be a serviceable second baseman - or DH.