4 Things That Went Wrong for the Twins in the Playoffs

[arby58]

4 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I was a little surprised that Jeffers didn’t get a game off (or partial one) just to give him a little breather, but on the other hand, Jeffers is young and should be able to bounce back quickly for playoff games. 

There were also several off days. 

[chpettit19]

I'm so confused about this concern about Jeffers playing every game. He played back to back games. Then had 2 days off. Played back to back games and had a day off. Then played back to back games and the season was over. He played 6 games in 9 days. That is not an unreasonable amount of playing time for a catcher. JT Realmuto caught 131 games this year. He's 32 years old. Jeffers is 26. Jeffers can catch 6 games in 9 days without his body falling apart.

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Jeffers over Vasquez all day, everyday.  A guy who has the potential to win a game for you verses a guy we know would go 2 for 25.  If there was a drastic difference in defensive skills.....I could change my mind.....but not seeing it.

According to most metrics there is a massive difference between the two in defensive value, with Vazquez having the advantage. FWIW.

[Woof Bronzer]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The top guys for the Twins would be hitting 5-9 on most playoff rosters. They need more 1-4 quality playoff bats no matter what position it is. 

I agree, and probably closer to 3 or 4 if we really want to be serious about October.  That said, do you emphasize this or a #2 starter?  I know the answer is "both" but I'm curious where fans are at on the priorities.  As someone who has been screeching for years about starting pitching I tend to lean that way but man, that Astros series was eye-opening on the hitting side.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, arby58 said:

I would also note that Houston has a pretty good pitching staff as well. If there is a single trade in recent years that I regret the most for the Twins, it was sending Ryan Pressly to Houston for Alcala and Celestino. That one is never going to balance out for the Twins.

Pressly was traded because the Twins were not going to resign him in the offseason.  It wasn't made to "improve" the team.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I agree, and probably closer to 3 or 4 if we really want to be serious about October.  That said, do you emphasize this or a #2 starter?  I know the answer is "both" but I'm curious where fans are at on the priorities.  As someone who has been screeching for years about starting pitching I tend to lean that way but man, that Astros series was eye-opening on the hitting side.  

For sure the answer is both, but its a tough question knowing that likely isn't realistic. I think the answer probably lies in what you think about the young guys already on the roster, or close to it. Do you think Ryan, Ober, and Varland (or whatever your list of young arms is) have a better chance of filling that #2 slot than Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Lee (or whatever your list of young bats is) have of filling multiple top bat slots?

I think the likely answer is they go after a #2 starter before they go after bats because they think they can platoon their way to enough offense. If it were me I think I'd also go after an arm, but I think they're going to continue to struggle in the postseason until they can answer the question with "both." If they can get a number 2 arm and lock them in for another 3 or 4 years I think you're in good shape on the pitching side and have to expect that they can fill the top 2 rotation spots in 3 or 4 years (hopefully with homegrown guys). I think getting the pitching set for multiple years would be my answer as that then frees you up to focus almost entirely on bats moving forward.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Platoon said:

Scoring mostly via the HR is boom or bust…..  and good opposing pitching often turns it to bust. The lack of respect for the RBI stat is misplaced. True, you need runners in front of you to drive in. That said you also need to do that driving in. Best way to retire the Twins this year? Walk the bases loaded, then let the next three guts screw themselves into the ground trying to hit a 5 run HR!

It is the opposite....good pitching makes it REALLY hard to string hits together. Fangraphs published an article on this....looking at playoff teams and how they should be built.

These series are TINY sample sizes, and conclusions shouldn't be drawn about future performance. We weren't lulled into forgetting the first three months, the roster was totally different in the 2nd half with Lewis, Polanco, and Wallner in there. Nick can accurately state what didn't work, but that doesn't imply anything about what should work in the future.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I agree, and probably closer to 3 or 4 if we really want to be serious about October.  That said, do you emphasize this or a #2 starter?  I know the answer is "both" but I'm curious where fans are at on the priorities.  As someone who has been screeching for years about starting pitching I tend to lean that way but man, that Astros series was eye-opening on the hitting side.  

Tiny sample size. I'm not giving up on Wallner or Jeffers based on 6 games. If I can only have one of the two things, I'm getting a number 1/2 pitcher. You need to get to the playoffs, and you need to pitch there. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

According to most metrics there is a massive difference between the two in defensive value, with Vazquez having the advantage. FWIW.

ALL of Vazquez worth this year was in his defense, and while I agree we can estimate it, I'm MORE confident that we know the value of hitting than we do of catcher defense. In 10% more plate appearances, Vazquez put up 0.5 less fWAR, and ALL OF THAT was in defense. 

I'll take Jeffers over Vazquez all day every day.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Tiny sample size. I'm not giving up on Wallner or Jeffers based on 6 games. If I can only have one of the two things, I'm getting a number 1/2 pitcher. You need to get to the playoffs, and you need to pitch there. 

Wallner and Jeffers are never going to be Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, or Tucker. I won't speak for Woof, but it wasn't just the performance in series by the Astros, it's the overall line of those 1-4 hitters. Where would Michael Brantley rank in the Twins lineup? I'd take him over almost everyone in our lineup and he hit 6th for the Stros. It's not about "giving up on" anyone, it's about being honest about the type of talent the Twins have on offense vs what most other playoff teams have.

There are very few playoff teams that wouldn't have the best 3 or 4 hitters in a series against the Twins, in my opinion. That's a problem. Maybe Julien and Lewis become guys that could hit in the top 4 of that Houston lineup, but we're going to need to see it for more than a partial year from them both. Kepler has no business hitting in the 3/4 hole of a playoff lineup. None. Correa is a solid 5 hole hitter on a playoff roster. Polanco is a 5 hole type guy as well. The Twins need to add some Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker types. And that's not just based on the tiny sample of that series. That's based on who those hitters have been for years.

[RpR]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

ALL of Vazquez worth this year was in his defense, and while I agree we can estimate it, I'm MORE confident that we know the value of hitting than we do of catcher defense. In 10% more plate appearances, Vazquez put up 0.5 less fWAR, and ALL OF THAT was in defense. 

I'll take Jeffers over Vazquez all day every day.

That is what the Twins did in the Post Season; Jeffers had 2 hits 19 AB with 2 BB and 8 SO.

Way below what he had been doing in Sept. but Baldelli rolled the dice and came up craps.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wallner and Jeffers are never going to be Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, or Tucker. I won't speak for Woof, but it wasn't just the performance in series by the Astros, it's the overall line of those 1-4 hitters. Where would Michael Brantley rank in the Twins lineup? I'd take him over almost everyone in our lineup and he hit 6th for the Stros. It's not about "giving up on" anyone, it's about being honest about the type of talent the Twins have on offense vs what most other playoff teams have.

There are very few playoff teams that wouldn't have the best 3 or 4 hitters in a series against the Twins, in my opinion. That's a problem. Maybe Julien and Lewis become guys that could hit in the top 4 of that Houston lineup, but we're going to need to see it for more than a partial year from them both. Kepler has no business hitting in the 3/4 hole of a playoff lineup. None. Correa is a solid 5 hole hitter on a playoff roster. Polanco is a 5 hole type guy as well. The Twins need to add some Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker types. And that's not just based on the tiny sample of that series. That's based on who those hitters have been for years.

Sure, but that has almost nothing to do with the comments in this thread I was replying to. The Astros have an elite team, they've been to the ALCS 7 straight years.....if that's the bar for success, good luck, as like 2 teams have done that recently.

[miller761]

Willing to live with strikeouts. The number of strikeouts looking has to fixed especially with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Wallner and Jeffers are never going to be Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, or Tucker. I won't speak for Woof, but it wasn't just the performance in series by the Astros, it's the overall line of those 1-4 hitters.

Yeah trying not to overreact to the Astros series, but it's not like we've never seen the lineup dry up like that before - that's who they were for half the season or more.  And I just can't see Wallner and Jeffers ever being elite.  I'd argue it's really difficult to be an "elite" hitter as an HR or bust guy.  Not impossible, but difficult.  I'd argue that we do have an elite hitter in Lewis though.  And Julien has earned the opportunity to see if can become one too.  I'd love to see him get some at bats against lefties next year.  

 

[MinnInPa]

strikeouts ..strikeouts ..strikeouts.....did i mention the nauseating consistent strikeouts??

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but that has almost nothing to do with the comments in this thread I was replying to. The Astros have an elite team, they've been to the ALCS 7 straight years.....if that's the bar for success, good luck, as like 2 teams have done that recently.

The ALCS 7 straight years isn't the bar for success, but improving our chances to make the ALCS once should be the goal, no? In order to do that the Twins need to add elite bats. Wallner and Jeffers are very unlikely to be those guys. In fact, there's really only 2 guys on the current roster with any sort of chance of being those guys, and Julien's Ks make him a bit of a stretch as an option, too. That Astros series should've been eye opening to fans (which was in the comment you replied to). Their top 4 is so much better than ours. And, yes, it's a reasonable goal to expect them to work to improve their top hitters and get closer to Houston.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Yeah trying not to overreact to the Astros series, but it's not like we've never seen the lineup dry up like that before - that's who they were for half the season or more.  And I just can't see Wallner and Jeffers ever being elite.  I'd argue it's really difficult to be an "elite" hitter as an HR or bust guy.  Not impossible, but difficult.  I'd argue that we do have an elite hitter in Lewis though.  And Julien has earned the opportunity to see if can become one too.  I'd love to see him get some at bats against lefties next year.  

 

Totally agree. I've been driving the Lewis bandwagon for years. I think he's definitely their best chance at an elite guy right now, but I wouldn't crown him one yet. He's going to have to make some adjustments. He has the skills, no doubt, but the league has film now, and he has another step to take to maintain things. Julien's Ks, and performance against lefties, may hold him back, but definitely want to see him get chances against lefties moving forward. 

I think my biggest frustration, and a very clear sign they have work to do offensively, is that they platooned guys at the top of their order. You're not WS ready on offense if you don't have 4-5 guys at least who you just set and forget at the top. Play for platoon advantages at the bottom, but the top of your order shouldn't need to be pinch hit for. Ever.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The ALCS 7 straight years isn't the bar for success, but improving our chances to make the ALCS once should be the goal, no? In order to do that the Twins need to add elite bats. Wallner and Jeffers are very unlikely to be those guys. In fact, there's really only 2 guys on the current roster with any sort of chance of being those guys, and Julien's Ks make him a bit of a stretch as an option, too. That Astros series should've been eye opening to fans (which was in the comment you replied to). Their top 4 is so much better than ours. And, yes, it's a reasonable goal to expect them to work to improve their top hitters and get closer to Houston.

You planning to find a better catcher? Jeffers put up 2.7 fWAR in 96 games, 77 as a catcher. Those are some elite numbers, 11th overall when playing C, and all but one of those had at least 15% more games as a catcher than him. If he'd caught as many games as Rautshcman at that pace, he'd outfWAR him by at least half a point, and be the 5th best catcher in the game. What are we expecting to be considered elite? 

Wallner is a rookie....who put up 1.9 fWAR in 79 games......is he elite? No. Is he possibly in the top 5-10 among LFers? Yes. He had 41 games as a LF and put up 1.5 fWAR while being a LFer....let's just multiply that by 3, so 123 games, and he's at 4.5 fWAR. That would make him the 2nd best LFer in the game.....I don't know if he can put that up, but maybe 3.5 fWAR...which is 3rd best among LF while playing LF. 

Now, you want to fix things? 1B, CF, and DH are your key positions for this team. RF if they let Kepler go, which they won't. 3B if Lewis isn't healthy.....but you shouldn't plan on that, IMO. 

[Woof Bronzer]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but that has almost nothing to do with the comments in this thread I was replying to. The Astros have an elite team, they've been to the ALCS 7 straight years.....if that's the bar for success, good luck, as like 2 teams have done that recently.

True.  We may as well give up, we'll never beat them.  Let's keep aiming for AL Central titles and call it a day!

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think it's about not having a "legit DH" as much is it's about just not having any elite hitters. Maybe Julien or Lewis turn into those guys, but they aren't there yet. There were only 6 players in all of baseball who DHed more than 100 games this year. Ohtani was elite, and Soler, Ozuna, and JD Martinez were "legit DHs" in performance. The concern isn't not having a DH, it's not having an elite bat, or 2.

The top guys for the Twins would be hitting 5-9 on most playoff rosters. They need more 1-4 quality playoff bats no matter what position it is. Hopefully Lewis and/or Julien can reach those heights. But Correa isn't that guy. Buxton's career looks closer to being over than him getting to that stature. Kirilloff just can't stay on the field. Wallner is a 6-8 hole slugger. Martin is most likely a 9 hole "second leadoff hitter" type. Maybe Lee can be elite, at least as a lefty? Maybe ERod figures it all out? Maybe Jenkins goes on a Holliday type tear next year and is our Alvarez starting in 2025? The Twins have a bunch of good bats, but lack great/elite ones. They don't need a DH, they just need a legit top 20 in baseball type bat.

I mean I'm pretty excited about what Lee has shown so far, but he's YOUNG at 22.  That's a lot of pressure to put on a guy his age.  But in general i do agree that they need 1-4 quality playoff bats as you said.  That's not going to be easy heading into the offseason.  I still think the Twins should gamble and bring Lee north next spring training, assuming he's still doing well.  Correa is the perfect mentor and he can also continue to work with Lewis who appears to potentially have an elite bat. 

I also like what Solano and Castro were able to do this season as well.  Julien was also a very pleasant surprise. We can only hope Kirilloff can stay healthy going forward, but so far it doesn't look good. I don't really have an opinion yet on Austin Martin, but based on his minor league stats and age (24) I don't think he's gonna be a big impact hitter, but again we'll see.     

I'd really hate to see this team squander the time they keep this starting rotation together.  It's probably the best collection they've had since the 2006 rotation of Santana, Radke, Liriano, Boof, Baker, and Silva.  

Lopez

Ryan

Paddack

Gray (maybe)

Ober / Varland

That's not bad.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

True.  We may as well give up, we'll never beat them.  Let's keep aiming for AL Central titles and call it a day!

that's so far from what this post said, it is like you didn't read it.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Pressly was traded because the Twins were not going to resign him in the offseason.  It wasn't made to "improve" the team.

This nonsense just keeps getting repeated. 

First, most imprtantly, Pressly had 1.5 years of control when traded. 

Second, why wouldn't the Twins sign him 1.5 years later?

As an aside, I'd sure HOPE the Twins FO isn't in the habit of making trades that don't have the goal of improving the team.

 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think it's about not having a "legit DH" as much is it's about just not having any elite hitters. Maybe Julien or Lewis turn into those guys, but they aren't there yet. There were only 6 players in all of baseball who DHed more than 100 games this year. Ohtani was elite, and Soler, Ozuna, and JD Martinez were "legit DHs" in performance. The concern isn't not having a DH, it's not having an elite bat, or 2.

For all the complaints about the Twins offense, they were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored this season - and that, not batting average, strike-outs or any other stat, is what matters when you are at bat.

Some of not having 'elite' stats is because they employed a platoon strategy at several positions, and some is injuries. Like it or not, the Twins had a lineup that got pretty equal contribution from 1-9 throughout the season. That didn't happen in the play-offs, but again - small sample size.

Relying on elite players is great - until they don't produce. Look at Atlanta: Acuna and Olson combined for 95 home runs and 245 RBIs (!) in the regular season. In their 4 post season games combined; 0 home runs and 0 RBIs.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

This nonsense just keeps getting repeated. 

First, most imprtantly, Pressly had 1.5 years of control when traded. 

Second, why wouldn't the Twins sign him 1.5 years later?

As an aside, I'd sure HOPE the Twins FO isn't in the habit of making trades that don't have the goal of improving the team.

 

Chief, you are right.  I stand corrected.  Chalk it up to old age...

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Chief, you are right.  I stand corrected.  Chalk it up to old age...

Haha.

I can relate.

 

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

For all the complaints about the Twins offense, they were 10th of 30 teams in runs scored this season - and that, not batting average, strike-outs or any other stat, is what matters when you are at bat.

Some of not having 'elite' stats is because they employed a platoon strategy at several positions, and some is injuries. Like it or not, the Twins had a lineup that got pretty equal contribution from 1-9 throughout the season. That didn't happen in the play-offs, but again - small sample size.

Relying on elite players is great - until they don't produce. Look at Atlanta: Acuna and Olson combined for 95 home runs and 245 RBIs (!) in the regular season. In their 4 post season games combined; 0 home runs and 0 RBIs.

What were their numbers for games scoring 2 runs or fewer? 3 runs or fewer? 4 runs or fewer? I'm not going to look them up right now cuz I'm just on my phone, but they were bad. Like really bad.

You deploy a platoon strategy because you don't have elite hitters. Getting equal contribution 1-9 proves my point. The Twins not getting better production from the top of their order than they got from Vazquez, MAT, Castro types at the bottom is a problem, not a positive.

Relying on less than elite players is not great-especially when they don't produce. The expectation isn't that the elite hitters perform 100% of the time. They still get out 7 of 10 times. But the pretty obvious answer is that it's better to be relying on Acuna and Olson than Kepler and Correa.

[USAFChief]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What were their numbers for games scoring 2 runs or fewer? 3 runs or fewer? 4 runs or fewer? I'm not going to look them up right now cuz I'm just on my phone, but they were bad. Like really bad.

You deploy a platoon strategy because you don't have elite hitters. Getting equal contribution 1-9 proves my point. The Twins not getting better production from the top of their order than they got from Vazquez, MAT, Castro types at the bottom is a problem, not a positive.

Relying on less than elite players is not great-especially when they don't produce. The expectation isn't that the elite hitters perform 100% of the time. They still get out 7 of 10 times. But the pretty obvious answer is that it's better to be relying on Acuna and Olson than Kepler and Correa.

Yes, I said it in April, July, and will repeat it again: the Twins lack a middle of the order. 

I have hopes that Julien can develop into a really good everyday leadoff hitter, OBP over .375 with BA and some pop. I don't think Royce Lewis will be the 3 hole hitter we need, but he's clearly a nice piece. A 5 hole guy. 

Juan Soto would fill a need. And Bellinger would make a nice 1st baseman. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Yes, I said it in April, July, and will repeat it again: the Twins lack a middle of the order. 

I have hopes that Julien can develop into a really good everyday leadoff hitter, OBP over .375 with BA and some pop. I don't think Royce Lewis will be the 3 hole hitter we need, but he's clearly a nice piece. A 5 hole guy. 

Juan Soto would fill a need. And Bellinger would make a nice 1st baseman. 

Bellinger has been pretty bad until this year recently, and he's the ONLY CF in FA. He'll get too much money to play CF for someone.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Yes, I said it in April, July, and will repeat it again: the Twins lack a middle of the order. 

I have hopes that Julien can develop into a really good everyday leadoff hitter, OBP over .375 with BA and some pop. I don't think Royce Lewis will be the 3 hole hitter we need, but he's clearly a nice piece. A 5 hole guy. 

Juan Soto would fill a need. And Bellinger would make a nice 1st baseman. 

I'm a big believer in Royce's talent, but am not willing to crown him a 2-4 hole hitter quite yet. Would love Soto. Not sold on Bellinger at all. But I've been with you since April. This team needs offense. Top of the order offense. Worthy of national attention offense.

[Swing Batter-Batter]

On 10/11/2023 at 9:50 PM, D.C Twins said:

On a positive note, watching Paddack pitch made me VERY excited to see him as a SP next year... if he can stay healthy.

He could slide in nicely behind Lopez in the rotation when Gray leaves (and leaves us a nice draft pick from our QO)

I agree 100%