Which Twins Left-Handed Outfielder Should Go?

[Cody Pirkl]

It’s time to make some personnel changes to try to shake up the lineup, and two obvious options exist to move on from. If the Twins finally decide to make some tangible changes, which left-handed corner outfielder should it be?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins have two corner outfielders in Triple-A with nothing to prove. Trevor Larnach currently has a 140 wRC+ for St. Paul, and despite his struggles at the MLB level, the clock is ticking on the former 1st round pick. Matt Wallner may have passed him up, as his 132 wRC+ comes with a reduced strikeout rate and a recent red-hot stretch with the Twins. 

The argument has been made for quite some time that these young bats deserve a look over struggling veterans Max Kepler and Joey Gallo. The opposing view is that they could wind up being even worse. As the Twins have surpassed the halfway point of the season and Kepler and Gallo have tanked so significantly, that argument should now be off the table. They have almost nothing to lose by turning a lineup spot over to a potential piece of the future. Which struggling veteran should be let go?

Joey Gallo

Gallo has been versatile and looked like a great acquisition to begin the season. Unfortunately, since May 1, Gallo owns a .167/.281/.368 slash line with a 43.7% strikeout rate. He's still taking his walks at 13.7%, but the whiffs have become untenable in a Twins lineup that's on pace to break the MLB strikeout record.

In addition, Gallo's days as a gold-glove-caliber defender are behind him at 29 years old. Being the massive athlete he is, age has led to a decline in sprint speed to below-average levels, and his cannon of an arm isn't put to use all that often in right field. In addition, he's had multiple soft tissue injuries leading to IL stints, making him unreliable to even remain on the field aside from his production when he is in the lineup. He looked fantastic defensively at first base at the beginning of the year, but Kirilloff's return has filled the left-handed first-base role, and first-base defense isn't a premium skill.

Gallo's immense struggles make parting ways with him a bit more complicated, as although the Dodgers traded a Double-A pitcher for him at last season's deadline, his struggles persisting through a second season suggests that he could be in a full-on decline. Even a Double-A pitcher seems like a longshot trade return on Joey Gallo.

Not being able to get a respectable return shouldn't keep him on the roster all season, but he is still capable of going on white-hot streaks of offensive damage, as we saw to begin the season. The Twins are likely considering that possibility as they ponder whether they want to gift him to another team for free. They could cut down on the strikeout problem by parting with Gallo, but do they want to risk missing out on the potential upside he showed to begin the season while likely paying the remainder of his $11m to not play for the Twins?

Max Kepler

Kepler was slashing .189/.261/.365 through June 18, when he went on a hot streak for four games, going 6-16 with three homers. He then went on an 0-11 stretch before heating up again, going 8-18 with two more homers. He finished the first half riding an 0-16 stretch into the break. Some say Kepler's two hot streaks may have saved his job, but that may give the Twins too much credit.

Since the beginning of 2021, Kepler has been slashing .216/.306/.387, good for an OPS around .50 points below a league-average right fielder offensively. His defense has been great (though he's had some questionable play lately), but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field and is now a glove-first corner outfield option on a team struggling offensively. 

All of this was just as true coming into the season when the Twins declined trade offers for Kepler and dedicated $8.5m in payroll with several top prospects on their way that were deserving of the opportunity. The fact that the Twins may have been on the precipice of parting with Kepler before his hot stretch is likely wishful thinking, as it seems at this point that no level of offensive struggles will keep the Twins from admitting they made the wrong decision this winter. 

In terms of keeping Kepler over Gallo, he has the defensive prowess he appears to have lost. His game also has less swing-and-miss, another potential tiebreaker for the Twins' whiff-happy lineup. He's also shown more offensively than Gallo recently, even though it came in tiny spurts surrounded by more of the same of what we've seen the last few years from Kepler. 

Kepler also has a team option for 2024 attached to him, which can be viewed as either positive or negative. On the one hand, $10m would be a bargain if he can hit even league-average levels with his typical defense. That adds value if anyone believes Kepler can hold up that end of the deal. Conversely, teams won't pay for a league-average bat with two years of control. Given how long his offense has trended down, the asking price, even from last winter, will have dropped even further. The Twins may continue to overvalue him and not only hold onto him at the deadline but run it back in 2024 regardless of his output in hopes that Kepler somehow rebounds from three years of below-average production at age 31. It's now a well-known fact that nobody values Max Kepler as highly as the team he's burned repeatedly.

It's almost always good to have options on a Major League roster. Unfortunately, the Twins have multiple options for which underperforming players can be jettisoned from the roster to try to create a spark. There's no shot it would happen, but there's an argument to be made that they should move on from both Gallo and Kepler.

Operating under the assumption that there's one move to make, it likely comes down to Gallo vs. Kepler. Is there a wrong answer regarding who the Twins should move on from? Should they ride it out with both? Let us know below.

 

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[Battle ur tail off]

Either if they could be traded, or both. Not very likely though that any team wants them, or at least wants to give up another player to get them.

If it must be a DFA, it would be Kepler for me. Gallo gets on base and has much more pop. Kepler is a better

defender, but mainly an out machine, even though he has been better lately. 

[Fatbat]

We aren't winning with Kepler and Gallo. Dump them both and bring up TL and Wallner

[Eris]

On Kepler. “but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field”

The statement can be read two ways. 1). Kepler was offered on opportunity to play CF, but declined. 
2). His defensive skills have declined to the point where he should not be in CF. 
 

From my perspective none of the current outfielders are playing well enough to make the Twins a playoff caliber team. Some of this is related to injuries, which has become a multi year reoccurring problem. I would certainly want to see what Wallner can do with every day playing time. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Trading either would be good. Trading both would be better. 

[pierre75275]

Honestly, I don't think that Kepler or Gallo are a big part of the problem. I would love to see what TL and MW could do with extended looks, but MW has 86 strikeouts in only 250 atbats in AAA. I doubt that improves at the big league level. And I am not entirely convinced TL is going to produce more than Kepler when you combine offense and defense but he has certainly earned the right to try at the major league level.

This offense doesn't get fixed unless Buxton and Correa start hitting. If they don't hit in the second half, it won't matter who gets traded in and out unless they sell the farm for a marquis player and I don't think they should do that.

[Parfigliano]

My 1st choice would be get rid of both Gallo and Kepler.  If only one goes make it Kepler and his sub .700 OPS since 2021. 

This isnt a down year for Kepler.  This is what Kepler is.

[danielp19653]

I'm not against moving one or both, they obviously aren't providing a ton of value that would need to get replaced. However Larnach like Gallo looked bad after the first month, Wallner looked like he had never played outfield in his life when called up and took horrendous routes to balls, and outside the last 2 games when he reached base 9 times in a row I don't think he reached base once before IIRC. Bringing up young players to replace declining veterans is rarely a bad choice but if you're expecting either of these guys to play better you're probably going to be disappointed. 

[Cody Pirkl]

22 minutes ago, Eris said:

On Kepler. “but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field”

The statement can be read two ways. 1). Kepler was offered on opportunity to play CF, but declined. 
2). His defensive skills have declined to the point where he should not be in CF. 
 

From my perspective none of the current outfielders are playing well enough to make the Twins a playoff caliber team. Some of this is related to injuries, which has become a multi year reoccurring problem. I would certainly want to see what Wallner can do with every day playing time. 

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

[Cody Pirkl]

9 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Honestly, I don't think that Kepler or Gallo are a big part of the problem. I would love to see what TL and MW could do with extended looks, but MW has 86 strikeouts in only 250 atbats in AAA. I doubt that improves at the big league level. And I am not entirely convinced TL is going to produce more than Kepler when you combine offense and defense but he has certainly earned the right to try at the major league level.

This offense doesn't get fixed unless Buxton and Correa start hitting. If they don't hit in the second half, it won't matter who gets traded in and out unless they sell the farm for a marquis player and I don't think they should do that.

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. 

They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Cody is right. Yes, improvement by Buxton and Correa is the most important thing to improve the lineup. That shouldn't stop the Twins from improving where they can, or at least trying to do so. You hsould never let the desire for the perfect solution stop you from making improvements. Are Larnach and Wallner better than Gallo and Kepler? I'd say it's probably a 55/45 proposition on the "yes" side, maybe 50/50 or 60/40.  To me, that's worth a shot. Moreover, there's very little downside . It would tough for them to be worse and if they are, throw Kirilloff and Castro out there every day, make Solano the full time 1B, and/or call up Andrew Stevenson and things still improve over what they are now. This is a no brainer. 

[CRF]

For me...Gallo and Kepler are 1A and 1B. They both need to go. The Gallo signing was a mistake...a risk that didn't work out. Kepler didn't develop the way that everyone hoped he would. It's time for him to move on and see if one of the young guys like Wallner can hold down RF. If there's any team that would be interested in either of them, please work out a deal. It almost doesn't even matter what the return is. If not, then DFA them. We easily can do just as well as we are, without them. 

[Nashvilletwin]

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future.  Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason.

If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo.  Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.
 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Of the two at this point I would vote Gallo goes first. Kepler at least provides defense, and IF he could play CF that would certainly help the team and cement his roster spot.

I'm not at all certain that either Wallner or Larnach are the answer. But Gallo and Kepler haven't been the answer up to this point either. Depending on what they do, it's always possible that Lewis or Julien or Kirilloff play some corner outfield as well right? Maybe not Julien, but it's at least worth considering the idea to keep his bat in the lineup.

I do hope they are flexible with roster changes, and I also hope that they add a bat in the next few weeks prior to the deadline. 

[Cody Pirkl]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future.  Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason.

If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo.  Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.
 

 

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter.

The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future.  Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason.

If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo.  Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.
 

 

Excellent point. The failure to call up Larnach in particular, and also Wallner, would say volumes about the FOs view of the two players. This is particularly true given the offensive futility of Gallo and Kepler not just this year but the last 3.5 years for Kepler and the last 1.5 years for Gallo. Maybe you could make the defensive argument when they were younger, but they're both over or pushing 30 and their defensive value is decreasing fast. The evidence shows that the idea that the we are going to get the 2019 Kepler or the 2020-2021 Gallo in the second half for more than an occasional hot streak is just a fantasy. 

This all really does make one wonder if the FO just doesn't believe that Larnach and/or Wallner can cut it at the MLB level. Larnach is 26, Wallner is 25. They are at least a basic version of what they are - Improvement now will most likely be incremental. If the FO doesn't think they can help the Twins, trade them now while they still have some value. Oakland or KC might be willing to give up a solid to better relief pitcher for one of them. Whatever you do, don't let these 2 guys just rot in AAA. Have these guys help us by playing at the MLB level or trading them for guys who can help us. 

[weitz41]

One or both would be good with me. I'll throw in T.C. Bear just in case he's a leftie. A $20 gift certificate to Pizza Ranch should cover it.

In all seriousness. They need to make a change. Give the young guys as long a runway as you can and if they don't look like the answer there should be an option or two in the FA market this winter.

[Cody Pirkl]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Of the two at this point I would vote Gallo goes first. Kepler at least provides defense, and IF he could play CF that would certainly help the team and cement his roster spot.

I'm not at all certain that either Wallner or Larnach are the answer. But Gallo and Kepler haven't been the answer up to this point either. Depending on what they do, it's always possible that Lewis or Julien or Kirilloff play some corner outfield as well right? Maybe not Julien, but it's at least worth considering the idea to keep his bat in the lineup.

I do hope they are flexible with roster changes, and I also hope that they add a bat in the next few weeks prior to the deadline. 

Larnach and Wallner may very well not be the answer, though it's an easy case to make that both could easily be better than Kepler and Gallo. For as much hate as Larnach gets, he has .3 fWAR to Kepler's .4 in 50 less PAs, and .3 to Gallo's .5 in about 60 less. I was an unabashed Larnach believer to start the year which has receded, but I feel like the perception on him is incredibly low when he probably paces out around the same as Kepler or Gallo through the same amount of PAs, and it comes with the potential payoff of him finding something and being a regular on the team for years to come.

Wallner is the reigning minor league hitter of the year and his main knocks are the strikeout rate and defense. He's lowered his K% significantly in Triple-A which is exactly what the Twins wanted him to do, and he'll almost certainly not strike out as much as Gallo. Gallo also hasn't been a good defender.

At the end of the day, Gallo and Kepler have lowered the bar so far that it doesn't take much confidence to take a leap on a prospect replacing one of them in my opinion. I've seen people say it could be a disaster if they give these guys a chance and they aren't up to the task. If that's what a disaster looks like, what have we been watching so far this year, ya know?

 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

If it must be a DFA, it would be Kepler for me. Gallo gets on base and has much more pop. Kepler is a better

defender, but mainly an out machine, even though he has been better lately. 

Gallo certainly has more pop, but he doesn't "get on base" more than Kepler.

2023 OBP

Kepler .300

Gallo .302

Gallo draws more walks, Kepler gets a few more hits. 

[SD happy]

I agree the first to go should be Gallo. However, I’m concerned about swapping out Wallner for Kepler in rf. Whatever increased offense we get from Wallner, I’ afraid we will lose on the defense side.  Kepler’s defense has been outstanding. The short time Wallner was up, his defense was not very good, almost brutal. 

[USAFChief]

I'd start by DFAing Gallo. I'd have done that a while ago. 

.167/.281/.368 since May 1. Yeesh.

Not to mention the damage to my blood pressure watching him K 3 times per evening. And I've already had to replace my TV twice (after a Corona bottle somehow "shattered" the screen at 80 MPH following a yet another failed RBI opportunity from a swing and a miss at a shoulder high FB.)

 

[Mike Sixel]

Both. Now. You can't win with this offense, try another one. 

[mnfireman]

I think the team can get at least the same production from Larnach and Wallner they are getting from Kepler and Gallo, though the defense may suffer a little. 

The time is now to see if they can make the adjustments to stay with the big club, not after Gallo (this year) and Kepler (next season) are gone, that just delays finding replacements if they can't adjust.

Time for the FO to admit their mistake and move on.

[Cody Pirkl]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd start by DFAing Gallo. I'd have done that a while ago. 

.167/.281/.368 since May 1. Yeesh.

Not to mention the damage to my blood pressure watching him K 3 times per evening. And I've already had to replace my TV twice (after a Corona bottle somehow passed through the screen at 80 MPH following a yet another failed RBI opportunity from a swing and a miss at a shoulder high FB.)

 

I'm the co president of the Max Kepler hater club and I agree, Gallo has probably put himself ahead. The tiebreaker for me is that it appears Gallo is no longer even an average defender.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

Shop both and trade the one who gets the better AA reliever in exchange.

[Brandon]

The front office is not holding on to Kepler or Gallo out of stubbornness or inability to admit being wrong.  They have made changes in the past.  I think the front office is giving the guys they are paying millions to every opportunity to succeed.  They do not have room in the budget to make moves maybe if there is salary moved to even out a trade but I think they are capped for this year based on comments about improvements have to come from what we already have.  I think a 2-3 week run after the all star break should be enough opportunity to either release, trade or DL someone to give Larnarch or Wallner a month to see if they can do better.  I also think the front office doesn’t want to make a move the can negatively affect the pitching staff.  Our OF defense has a high floor.  

[Cody Pirkl]

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The front office is not holding on to Kepler or Gallo out of stubbornness or inability to admit being wrong.  They have made changes in the past.  I think the front office is giving the guys they are paying millions to every opportunity to succeed.  They do not have room in the budget to make moves maybe if there is salary moved to even out a trade but I think they are capped for this year based on comments about improvements have to come from what we already have.  I think a 2-3 week run after the all star break should be enough opportunity to either release, trade or DL someone to give Larnarch or Wallner a month to see if they can do better.  I also think the front office doesn’t want to make a move the can negatively affect the pitching staff.  Our OF defense has a high floor.  

I think Kepler is the exception to the whole "not making moves out of stubbornness" thing. They've watched his value crater year after year after year while passing on opportunities to get value on him. They may not be legitimately thinking "we can't cut bait now because we'd look stupid", but they clearly have a blindspot to him. 

In regards to the money argument, we've reached a point where they just need to ask themselves whether they want to win or not. It's unfortunate that Gallo's $11m deal is looking worse and worse, but that's no reason to just ride out the storm for example.

We've also reached a point regarding defense, Wallner or Larnach could be worse, etc. arguments have to go out the window. The Twins have been one of the worst teams in baseball since May and they can't even hold a lead in a division that doesn't include a single team above .500. It can always get worse, but it's already quite bad.

[tony&rodney]

The post asks which outfielder (singular) goes, so in deference to defense and base running it is Gallo who goes.

[roger]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. 

They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.

I am shocked that the Twins are only 9% below league average in right field.  Shocked!  In most games it seems their right fielder contributes nothing.  Are other team's right fielders having an off year so we don't seem all that bad?

[TopGunn#22]

I'm strongly in favor of BOTH needing to go and I'll take back WHATEVER middling prospect I can get.  It's addition by subtraction regarding Kepler and Gallo.  

Nashville hit the nail on the head though regarding our FO's perception of Larnach & Wallner.  That's why I've consistently made clear my willingness to trade Larnach in the right deal.  Wallner has had the least amount of opportunity at the major league level so I'm giving him a little more rope.  At this point he's the LH Brent Rooker.