Which Twins Left-Handed Outfielder Should Go?

22 minutes ago, Eris said:

On Kepler. “but he's declined to be part of the solution in center field”

The statement can be read two ways. 1). Kepler was offered on opportunity to play CF, but declined. 
2). His defensive skills have declined to the point where he should not be in CF. 
 

From my perspective none of the current outfielders are playing well enough to make the Twins a playoff caliber team. Some of this is related to injuries, which has become a multi year reoccurring problem. I would certainly want to see what Wallner can do with every day playing time. 

It's been reported that Kepler has made it known to the Twins that his preference is not to play centerfield FWIW. If it were more of a question of whether he's still capable, I think it would be reported that way. I also can't imagine a scenario where the Twins just think his defense wouldn't be up to snuff there. Nick Gordon played there plenty before getting injured and Willi Castro still starts games there. I'd bet on both of those players being decidedly worse defensively than Max Kepler.

9 minutes ago, pierre75275 said:

Honestly, I don't think that Kepler or Gallo are a big part of the problem. I would love to see what TL and MW could do with extended looks, but MW has 86 strikeouts in only 250 atbats in AAA. I doubt that improves at the big league level. And I am not entirely convinced TL is going to produce more than Kepler when you combine offense and defense but he has certainly earned the right to try at the major league level.

This offense doesn't get fixed unless Buxton and Correa start hitting. If they don't hit in the second half, it won't matter who gets traded in and out unless they sell the farm for a marquis player and I don't think they should do that.

I agree that Buxton and Correa are the main issues but that doesn't give everyone else a pass. Twins offensive production in left field is 23% below league average and in right field is 9% below league average. Unlike center, those are offensive premium positions, and elite defense alone doesn't make a meaningful difference to make up for it. Taylor has been exactly what the Twins wanted and wouldn't be an issue if the players manning offense-first positions did their jobs. 

They can't get rid of Buxton or Correa, but they can get rid of a corner OF. Hell, there are eager replacements that could be around 5+ years after Gallo and Kepler are off the team. It's an easy lever to pull with little downside at this point.

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future.  Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason.

If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo.  Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.
 

 

They probably do believe that Larnach and Wallner aren't MLB worthy because at this point the only other explanation is that they don't want to admit they were wrong. The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong. I'd say we've reached a point in the season where the risk of these guys coming up and being worse are so low that it doesn't even matter.

The Twins have one of the worst records in baseball dating back to May and two corner outfielders have been very bad while two top prospects rot in Triple-A. The absolute worst case scenario is they come up, perform a little worse than the incumbents, and the bad baseball team gets a little more bad while young players get experience for the future.

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Of the two at this point I would vote Gallo goes first. Kepler at least provides defense, and IF he could play CF that would certainly help the team and cement his roster spot.

I'm not at all certain that either Wallner or Larnach are the answer. But Gallo and Kepler haven't been the answer up to this point either. Depending on what they do, it's always possible that Lewis or Julien or Kirilloff play some corner outfield as well right? Maybe not Julien, but it's at least worth considering the idea to keep his bat in the lineup.

I do hope they are flexible with roster changes, and I also hope that they add a bat in the next few weeks prior to the deadline. 

Larnach and Wallner may very well not be the answer, though it's an easy case to make that both could easily be better than Kepler and Gallo. For as much hate as Larnach gets, he has .3 fWAR to Kepler's .4 in 50 less PAs, and .3 to Gallo's .5 in about 60 less. I was an unabashed Larnach believer to start the year which has receded, but I feel like the perception on him is incredibly low when he probably paces out around the same as Kepler or Gallo through the same amount of PAs, and it comes with the potential payoff of him finding something and being a regular on the team for years to come.

Wallner is the reigning minor league hitter of the year and his main knocks are the strikeout rate and defense. He's lowered his K% significantly in Triple-A which is exactly what the Twins wanted him to do, and he'll almost certainly not strike out as much as Gallo. Gallo also hasn't been a good defender.

At the end of the day, Gallo and Kepler have lowered the bar so far that it doesn't take much confidence to take a leap on a prospect replacing one of them in my opinion. I've seen people say it could be a disaster if they give these guys a chance and they aren't up to the task. If that's what a disaster looks like, what have we been watching so far this year, ya know?

1 hour ago, Battle ur tail off said:

If it must be a DFA, it would be Kepler for me. Gallo gets on base and has much more pop. Kepler is a better

defender, but mainly an out machine, even though he has been better lately. 

Gallo certainly has more pop, but he doesn't "get on base" more than Kepler.

2023 OBP

Kepler .300

Gallo .302

Gallo draws more walks, Kepler gets a few more hits. 

I'd start by DFAing Gallo. I'd have done that a while ago. 

.167/.281/.368 since May 1. Yeesh.

Not to mention the damage to my blood pressure watching him K 3 times per evening. And I've already had to replace my TV twice (after a Corona bottle somehow "shattered" the screen at 80 MPH following a yet another failed RBI opportunity from a swing and a miss at a shoulder high FB.)

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd start by DFAing Gallo. I'd have done that a while ago. 

.167/.281/.368 since May 1. Yeesh.

Not to mention the damage to my blood pressure watching him K 3 times per evening. And I've already had to replace my TV twice (after a Corona bottle somehow passed through the screen at 80 MPH following a yet another failed RBI opportunity from a swing and a miss at a shoulder high FB.)

 

I'm the co president of the Max Kepler hater club and I agree, Gallo has probably put himself ahead. The tiebreaker for me is that it appears Gallo is no longer even an average defender.

5 minutes ago, Brandon said:

The front office is not holding on to Kepler or Gallo out of stubbornness or inability to admit being wrong.  They have made changes in the past.  I think the front office is giving the guys they are paying millions to every opportunity to succeed.  They do not have room in the budget to make moves maybe if there is salary moved to even out a trade but I think they are capped for this year based on comments about improvements have to come from what we already have.  I think a 2-3 week run after the all star break should be enough opportunity to either release, trade or DL someone to give Larnarch or Wallner a month to see if they can do better.  I also think the front office doesn’t want to make a move the can negatively affect the pitching staff.  Our OF defense has a high floor.  

I think Kepler is the exception to the whole "not making moves out of stubbornness" thing. They've watched his value crater year after year after year while passing on opportunities to get value on him. They may not be legitimately thinking "we can't cut bait now because we'd look stupid", but they clearly have a blindspot to him. 

In regards to the money argument, we've reached a point where they just need to ask themselves whether they want to win or not. It's unfortunate that Gallo's $11m deal is looking worse and worse, but that's no reason to just ride out the storm for example.

We've also reached a point regarding defense, Wallner or Larnach could be worse, etc. arguments have to go out the window. The Twins have been one of the worst teams in baseball since May and they can't even hold a lead in a division that doesn't include a single team above .500. It can always get worse, but it's already quite bad.