Which Twins Left-Handed Outfielder Should Go?

[gman]

I think you put them both on the market, if they aren't already. If they wanted to hang unto one, let the market dictate that. They would wind up hang unto whichever one the market thinks is the worse. Neither Wallner nor Larnach may drive the team to the promised land, but neither Gallo nor Kepler are currently and they are both gone in less than three months. Trade them, pay the balance of their salaries and see what 5mil each can buy you on the market. Meantime see if you have something you can count on for next year. Stevenson is also having a good year at 3A.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll say this again....if they don't believe in the options at AAA, trade them.....

[DocBauer]

With respect to the OP, Gallo goes first as he's performed even worse than Kepler...which is almost mond boggling...and is the poorer defender. 

But the truth remains the same truth we've  even on proverbial soap boxes for weeks now: both must go.

I've commented previously that "nothing will change unless something changes". And I stand by that. No meeting or "go get 'em" attitude is going to turn this around over night. But Gallo at .160 AVG and barely over .300 OB without even getting power production. It just didn't work. Admit it didn't work, and move on. Kepler has been hitting between .180-.190, I believe, since mid 2022. His OPS has been on the decline now for 3 straight years. What's going to suddenly change?

Offensively at least, how bad would Larnach and Wallner have to be to actually be worse? Last time I checked, Larnach had a better AVG, similar or better OB% than either, and comparable OPS. And he's younger and offers at least SOME upside, depending on how much you like him.

Forget destroying opponents' pitching at AAA, Wallner has almost exactly half a season of ML sevice time between last year and this year. SSS to be sure. But in that half season his numbers just destroy what we've been getting from Gallo and Kepler both, and couple "hot" games notwithstanding. 

The numbers for both aren't hard to look up.

I don't believe the FO dislikes either Larnach or Wallner. My goodness, they drafted and developed and promoted them. But they absolutely seem to have blinders at times on certain players. They almost give the appearance at times of being afraid of change I'm case they somehow get something wrong. At other times, they are very aggressive with change.

Heck, while we're on the topic, Kirilloff can also play the OF. Maybe we should be talking about Williams as a late blooming 26yo 1B/DH destroying AAA. Maybe he fits in this discussion somewhere, instead of it being all about the OF.

And while there needs to be additional changes made in the offseason in regard to approach, maybe staff, I stand by my original statement that nothing will change unless something changes. 

It's time for change.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Cody Pirkl said:

The problem for me personally with that is that they believed Kepler and Gallo would be the answers heading into the season and were clearly wrong.

This FO will never admit they're wrong, they'll double down instead. My vote is for Gallo to go 1st. Almost always he hits HRs when we don't need them and strikes out when we do. Kepler sometimes gets hits when we need them & no one plays Target's RF better them him.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

This FO will never admit they're wrong, they'll double down instead. My vote is for Gallo to go 1st. Almost always he hits HRs when we don't need them and strikes out when we do. Kepler sometimes gets hits when we need them & no one plays Target's RF better them him.

Their WPA is a rounding error off (around -.7) ......so I'm not sure that narrative is correct. That said, I would also send Gallo out first, as he's not been even in sight of good for months now.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Heck, while we're on the topic, Kirilloff can also play the OF. Maybe we should be talking about Williams as a late blooming 26yo 1B/DH destroying AAA. Maybe he fits in this discussion somewhere, instead of it being all about the OF.

Thanks for bringing this up. There is nothing you get from Gallo that you can't get from Kirilloff. What they need to do is drop one (or two) of their lefthanded bats and find a righthanded bat. They don't need Gallo AND Kepler AND Larnach AND Kirilloff AND Wallner on this roster (and I'm ignoring Julien and Nick Gordon). That was obvious when they added Gallo.

[Cody Pirkl]

1 hour ago, roger said:

I am shocked that the Twins are only 9% below league average in right field.  Shocked!  In most games it seems their right fielder contributes nothing.  Are other team's right fielders having an off year so we don't seem all that bad?

Trevor Larnach is slashing .244/..327/.578 in games where he played right field. Really makes you think!

[ashbury]

There is an aspect I didn't see mentioned, in regard to why the FO has stuck with the status quo until now.  Namely, MLB's roster rules, which prevent sending either Gallo or Kepler to AAA, in preference to Larnach or Wallner who do have minor league options.  If (and that's a big assumption) the FO viewed all 4 as approximately equally likely to produce wins for the team, then in order to hedge against injury or other events, you make the moves that can be undone later (minor league assignments) and defer the moves you can't undo (trade away or otherwise dispose).

The time for this careful approach to managing a long season is over, of course.  It's July.  But if the FO does part ways with Gallo and/or Kepler, it won't necessarily be that they suddenly saw the light.

I prioritize Gallo before Kepler, but I'm ready to see both depart.  Bring up Larnach and Wallner to replace them, and if either gets injured then probably I add Chris Williams to the 40-man (his bat is starting to look legit) and shift Kirilloff to replace the injured outfielder.

And as a minor detail, if I'm the FO then I eat salary for either player I trade, if it helps brings a decent prospect in return.  Sunk cost, and all that - when I cut either one outright then I'm on the hook for the salary anyway.  I'll be extremely disappointed if either one is traded for what looks like pure salary relief; you're a major league team, embrace a major league payroll, and use the money to always be improving the talent pool.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

There is an aspect I didn't see mentioned, in regard to why the FO has stuck with the status quo until now.  Namely, MLB's roster rules, which prevent sending either Gallo or Kepler to AAA, in preference to Larnach or Wallner who do have minor league options.  If (and that's a big assumption) the FO viewed all 4 as approximately equally likely to produce wins for the team, then in order to hedge against injury or other events, you make the moves that can be undone later (minor league assignments) and defer the moves you can't undo (trade away or otherwise dispose).

The time for this careful approach to managing a long season is over, of course.  It's July.  But if the FO does part ways with Gallo and/or Kepler, it won't necessarily be that they suddenly saw the light.

I prioritize Gallo before Kepler, but I'm ready to see both depart.  Bring up Larnach and Wallner to replace them, and if either gets injured then probably I add Chris Williams to the 40-man (his bat is starting to look legit) and shift Kirilloff to replace the injured outfielder.

And as a minor detail, if I'm the FO then I eat salary for either player I trade, if it brings a decent prospect in return.  Sunk cost, and all that - when I cut either one outright then I'm on the hook for the salary anyway.

I'm ok, not happy, with starting the season this way, but we now have data on the hitting and pitching.....at this point, it should be obvious that depth that includes bad starters isn't really depth....

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future.  Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason.

If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo.  Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.
 

 

If traded, 2 years from now they will both be raking in the allstar game. 

[ashbury]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm ok, not happy, with starting the season this way, but we now have data on the hitting and pitching.....at this point, it should be obvious that depth that includes bad starters isn't really depth....

I prefer not to assume our FO are idiots, and that the players in question have failed to achieve what was forecast.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, ashbury said:

There is an aspect I didn't see mentioned, in regard to why the FO has stuck with the status quo until now.  Namely, MLB's roster rules, which prevent sending either Gallo or Kepler to AAA, in preference to Larnach or Wallner who do have minor league options.  If (and that's a big assumption) the FO viewed all 4 as approximately equally likely to produce wins for the team, then in order to hedge against injury or other events, you make the moves that can be undone later (minor league assignments) and defer the moves you can't undo (trade away or otherwise dispose).

The time for this careful approach to managing a long season is over, of course.  It's July.  But if the FO does part ways with Gallo and/or Kepler, it won't necessarily be that they suddenly saw the light.

I prioritize Gallo before Kepler, but I'm ready to see both depart.  Bring up Larnach and Wallner to replace them, and if either gets injured then probably I add Chris Williams to the 40-man (his bat is starting to look legit) and shift Kirilloff to replace the injured outfielder.

And as a minor detail, if I'm the FO then I eat salary for either player I trade, if it helps brings a decent prospect in return.  Sunk cost, and all that - when I cut either one outright then I'm on the hook for the salary anyway.  I'll be extremely disappointed if either one is traded for what looks like pure salary relief; you're a major league team, embrace a major league payroll, and use the money to always be improving the talent pool.

Great points...except...

I don't think you're getting anything for Gallo or Kepler even IF you pay their salaries 

 

I mean, if they can't help THIS offense, which contender has a need for them?

[USAFChief]

27 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I prefer not to assume our FO are idiots, and that the players in question have failed to achieve what was forecast.

I'm pretty reluctant to cut the FO any slack regarding Kepler and Gallo. 

I think they're achieving pretty much exactly what SHOULD HAVE been forecast. 

Maybe even a little more than an honest forecast in Gallo's case, considering his tank jobs in NY and LA.

Kepler actually has a slightly higher OPS than last year, as well. He's been an above average hitter in 2019 and 2020s 60 game season. That's it.

Nobody in the FO should be surprised.  Disappointed, ok. But these outcomes should have been smack dab in the middle of any forecast range.

 

[RJA]

I think sticking with both players for so long this season when Wallner, and Larnach to a bit of a lesser degree, have performed at a high level at AAA is inexcusable.  Gallo I believe is simply unable to do better at this stage of his career.  It is not unusual for a one dimensional power hitter to do well early in the year when pitchers are not quite in their groove, and then tail off as pitchers start hitting their spots and refining their stuff in the summer months.  Such is the case with Gallo IMHO.  Kepler on the other hand appears to be stubborn with a horizontal learning curve.  I don't see any interest in his part on trying to change his approach which has failed him for nearly the past three years.  And, catering to his wishes and not putting him in CF is simply nuts.  He has not earned the right to veto decisions about where he plays.  I would see what I could get in trades for both, and if there is no interest, DFA both.  There is no way Wallner and Larnach could be any worse, and we might as well see what they can do now, and if they can't perform adequately, it is best to know that going into the offseason.  The FO has really messed things up the past year and a half.

[adorduan]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'd start by DFAing Gallo. I'd have done that a while ago. 

.167/.281/.368 since May 1. Yeesh.

Not to mention the damage to my blood pressure watching him K 3 times per evening. And I've already had to replace my TV twice (after a Corona bottle somehow "shattered" the screen at 80 MPH following a yet another failed RBI opportunity from a swing and a miss at a shoulder high FB.)

 

80mph? Nice arm you got there, old man!😆

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, adorduan said:

80mph? Nice arm you got there, old man!😆

Those were both from Mrs Chief. 

[Craig Arko]

I suppose whichever one you get the best return offer for.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Kepler has to have some inkling that he's on thin ice right?  Or at least unlikely to have his option picked up for next year.  You'd think he'd be willing to log some CF time just to try and improve his standing on the roster this year and give teams a CF look to try and increase his opportunities/earning potential if/when he hits the market in the offseason.  I'd be curious if any of the 'clubhouse leaders' (whoever they are) have broached the subject with Max.

Seems the best we can hope for is one of these guys has an injury that keeps them out to given Wallner and/or Larnach a bit of an extended run to evaluate without having to go full DFA to find the at-bats.   

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

I suppose whichever one you get the best return offer for.

I don't give a rat's butt about return. I want them gone. Now. DFA. Just. Do. It.

[Major League Ready]

Both.  We need the roster spots to audition talent.  We need to find some help to actually give us a shot in a playoff series as well as finding some long-term solutions.  Start by bringing up Larnach and sending Kirilloff to the OF.  Then, give Williams a shot at 1B.  Larnach over Wallner because their offensive numbers are very similar and Larnach is clearly the better defender.  Bring Wallner up if there is an injury or Buxton is able to play the OF.    I would also at some point give Stevenson a shot.   

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Both.  We need the roster spots to audition talent.  We need to find some help to actually give us a shot in a playoff series as well as finding some long-term solutions.  Start by bringing up Larnach and sending Kirilloff to the OF.  Then, give Williams a shot at 1B.  Larnach over Wallner because their offensive numbers are very similar and Larnach is clearly the better defender.  Bring Wallner up if there is an injury or Buxton is able to play the OF.    I would also at some point give Stevenson a shot.   

Other than Stevenson, I'm good with that plan. 

I really do think they should consider putting Buxton on the IL, and putting Polanco at third when he's healthy.

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Other than Stevenson, I'm good with that plan. 

I really do think they should consider putting Buxton on the IL, and putting Polanco at third when he's healthy.

I know Stevenson is a stretch but jeez the guy has earned a shot, especially if this level of play continues.  From the little I have seen he seems like a good defender.  Can be an above average defender?  I have not seen enough to comment.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Major League Ready said:

I know Stevenson is a stretch but jeez the guy has earned a shot, especially if this level of play continues.  From the little I have seen he seems like a good defender.  Can be an above average defender?  I have not seen enough to comment.

I just don't think they are moving on from MAT......nor am I sure they should. It wouldn't kill me....but I think if you add Polanco at third and Larnach in left, then Lewis at third and Polanco at 2B and Julien at DH (bench Buxton, he's not as good a hitter as Julien), that they could score a run a game more than they are right now w/o fixing CF .... assuming CC returns to near CC level as a hitter and Jeffers plays 60% of the time.

Would I like more, like Kepler also gone and Williams at first and AK in Right? Yes.

With all that, if they still can't hit, we have a lot of info on next year and beyond, and haven't really lost anything this year (since you can't win playoff games scoring less than 3 runs a game 40% of the time anyway).

[stringer bell]

The corollary to this discussion would be “which corner outfielder gets promoted?”  
 

I think that question is equally interesting. In a very small sample size, Wallner did well with the Twins, Larnach’s numbers are poor (much larger SS). However Larnach has the higher AAA OPS and is the better and more versatile outfielder. Both hit lefty and neither will help with the Twins’ K problem. 

[MMMordabito]

[ValleySpringsFan]

Now I can't find the article, but I read recently that Texas was looking to trade for left-handed outfield help. We could offer Texas a twofer, take one or take both, same money. For whatever reason, Gallo and Kepler (and Pagan, too) are floundering with the Twins. Time to move on.

[chpettit19]

I'm with @ashbury on this, I think a big part of the reason they haven't made moves is their fear of another season tanking because of injuries. They're protecting against that, to some degree. But I've been saying for years that there really isn't any log jams, or extreme depth anywhere. When you refuse to move on from league average, at best, performers you create a false sense of depth that isn't actually there. True log jams, or depth, are from an abundance of talent, not an abundance of easily replaceable guys.

The other big part of the reason is their over-reliance on analytics, and what they think "should" happen. I thought, and still think, the Gallo move was smart. His shown ceiling, just 2 years ago, is an all star gold glover. He's 29. That's a good gamble. Cody Bellinger had been as bad for longer, and he got 17.5 mil from the Cubs. He's had a great turnaround this year. You take risks on shown talent. But when the bounce back doesn't come you have to flush it and move on. You can't lose an entire season to a guy you hoped would figure it out. You thought Kepler's batted ball data would get better results with the lack of shifting? You were wrong (and predictably wrong, so I hope that isn't truly what they expected). You can't lose an entire season to a guy you hoped would figure it out.

My biggest complaint with this FO is their absolute inability to make timely in-season adjustments. And they're at it again here. It didn't work. You took reasonable risks, but you got bit. Don't just stand their and let them keep biting you over and over. Even if the folks reaching out offering to help end up biting you, too, at least you took the chance at improvement instead continuing to get bit by the same guys over and over.  Move on, and take a new reasonable risk.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I know Stevenson is a stretch but jeez the guy has earned a shot, especially if this level of play continues.  From the little I have seen he seems like a good defender.  Can be an above average defender?  I have not seen enough to comment.

If you like the thought of Michael A Taylor minus the defensive chops, particularly the arm, then I suppose he should be given another shot.  Oakland and KC seem like good places for that opportunity.  I'm not particularly persuaded by one partial AAA season of .900 OPS at his age and track record with the bat.

But we do need one or two break-glass-in-emergency players stashed at AAA, if we divest both Gallo and Kepler, so I don't advocate trading him for a bag of balls either.

[terrydactyls]

I'm reading a lot of prognosticating about Wallner's and Larnach's abilities as major leaguers - both positive and negative.  But right now, I don't believe anyone can speculate.  It's time (actually long past time) to bring them and let them play themselves into a permanent spot on the roster or fail and be sent back to AAA next spring.  And I would add Williams and Stevenson to the list also.

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm pretty reluctant to cut the FO any slack regarding Kepler and Gallo. 

I think they're achieving pretty much exactly what SHOULD HAVE been forecast.

I guess I was focusing on their in-season decision making.  Like you, I didn't understand their reasoning for signing Gallo, and would have liked moving on from Kepler, back in the off-season.  I would especially like to be privvy to the analysis that said Gallo was the perfect fit for this roster.