Waiting for Mistakes Is Not a Viable Offensive Strategy

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins are leaving their offensive fate in the hands of opponents, and it's not working.

Maybe Royce Lewis has the right idea.

Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball is a complex and deeply interwoven game, especially at its highest level. Nothing in major-league baseball is as straightforward as it seems. So when I say that Minnesota's offensive strategy under hitting coach David Popkins seems largely predicated on hunting for mistake pitches from opposing hurlers and crushing them, I recognize that it's a vast oversimplification.

Still, for anyone who's watched the team much this year, it does feel like a very apt description of their approach. Right? The eye test matches the results: Twins hitters are generally swinging out of their shoes, racking up strikeouts at an historic rate while generating an outsized proportion of their scoring on home runs. 

Plate appearances tend to have a recurring pattern: combinations of passivity and guesswork leading to many short and fruitless at-bats. A noticeable urge to pull the ball with authority has hitters rolling over grounders and popping lazy flies with regularity between all the whiffs.

A commenter here at TD put it astutely the other week: it's like the Twins are playing home run derby, while the other team is playing baseball, and winning.

Again, these are only the musings of outsiders. I don't proclaim to be an expert on major-league hitting. But it was revealing the other day to hear the same "waiting for mistakes" verbiage come from a player on the team itself: Royce Lewis, who's been one of the few exceptions to the lineup's general all-or-nothing tendency.

“It’s just me being able to put the bat on the ball and make contact and make people do things," Lewis said on Sunday after going 3-for-4 with a walk. "You’ve just got to play the game and when you strike out, no one is doing anything except for the pitcher. Honestly, I get frustrated after a while and I just go back to being like — what I said to (hitting coach David Popkins) is, ‘I’m going to turn into (Luis) Arraez today, just touch the ball. There’s a lot of grass out there.' "

Lewis is batting .322 with an .865 OPS through 125 MLB plate appearances, despite a developmental path that was thrown completely askew by injuries and COVID. His spray chart in a limited big-league sample is reflective of the mentality he preaches, showing a willingness to take the ball the other way and swing for contact on his pull side.

"I looked at where some of our plans were going and how the pitchers were pitching us," Lewis continued, "and they weren’t attacking us with our plan of getting a mistake. I was like, ‘Why don’t I just start being aggressive, putting the ball in play? I know I can at least touch it and go to right field.’ "

Again: it's an oversimplification of how Twins hitters are being primed and prepared for games. We all know that. But the words "our plan of getting a mistake" will elicit an inevitable cringe from fans who feel the remark corroborates what they've been seeing, and what's been plaguing this remarkably frustrating offensive unit. If they don't get the pitch they're looking for, then the at-bat isn't going to yield anything.

Lewis wasn't in the lineup on Monday night for a 4-1 loss against Atlanta in which Minnesota failed to produce any offense outside of a single solo home run. Par for the course. Granted, the Twins were facing a hell of a starter in Spencer Strider, but that sort of gets to the point: you're not going to succeed with any consistency against high-caliber arms – or pitchers buckling down, say, with the bases loaded – when you're counting on them making a mistake. This is the freaking big leagues.

 

Let's not act like a nominal change in instruction is going to be some magical elixir. Every hitter has his own mechanics and mindset. It's not realistic to expect some sweeping profound transformation across the lineup as the result of a change in messaging, or even personnel on the coaching staff.

Even Lewis walks a precarious tightrope. It's easy to advocate for a more contact-focused approach when the hits are falling as they have; Royce has enjoyed a .418 BABIP in his limited sample this year. We've seen how it can go when he slumps. We also saw how it went when the young hitter he replaced – Jose Miranda – suffered the downsides of such an approach. 

Miranda's eagerness to put bat on ball, and his resulting tendency to swing at unfavorable pitches, led to low-quality contact and an absence of power. That trend sadly continues in Triple-A, where he has a sub-100 ISO.

Miranda has unarguably been the single biggest disappointment among a sea of disappointing Twins hitters this year, so admittedly, there is a "be careful what you wish for" caveat in play with the inclination to heed Lewis' advice and embrace an offensive philosophy less geared toward selling out for power.

That said ... it really couldn't hurt at this point. We're halfway through the season, and the Twins continue to struggle with scoring runs in a way that threatens to sabotage their wide-open path to the postseason, with one of the best pitching staffs we've seen. 

The current method is not working. It would be nice to hear someone other than the 24-year-old rookie acknowledge it, and take action on it.

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[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

As a person that is blocked by Reusse on Twitter for calling out one of his BS takes, why include his tweet? Lewis is allowed to have days off after two ACL surgeries. I get that it mentions the Twins' hitting philosophy, but it's also clearly intended to rile up the fanbase with no proof that it's actually true. 

[jkcarew]

I mean…he’s K’ing right about at the team rate…above league average.

However, if my hopeful eyes aren’t deceiving me, he does seem willing and able to adapt approach to some AB based on game situation and/or what the pitcher is trying to do with him. 
 

Health. Health. Health. He strikes me as one for whom the ability to think the game might be his biggest asset.

[Nick Nelson]

16 minutes ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

As a person that is blocked by Reusse on Twitter for calling out one of his BS takes, why include his tweet? Lewis is allowed to have days off after two ACL surgeries. I get that it mentions the Twins' hitting philosophy, but it's also clearly intended to rile up the fanbase with no proof that it's actually true. 

I took it as an amusing tongue-in-cheek remark based on the source. Seems like anyone getting riled up about it is taking it way too seriously.

[Jocko87]

On 5/24/2023 at 10:45 PM, Jocko87 said:

But the manager can make a huge difference. We are reasonably assuming that Rocco has many of the decision powers pulled away in favor of the computer but we don’t know his mandate in detail. It would make sense based on what we see but it wouldn’t explain most of the issues we have with this team. 

The data may lead them to swing hard all the time but it certainly doesn’t say take horrific at bats and swing at bad pitches. A manager should fix that. 

The data may say Griffen Jax has the best stuff+ in the league but it doesn’t tell him to be predictable or tip his pitches. A manager should fix that. 

The data will say that not bunting leads to more runs but it’s not saying in the bottom of 10, tie game one run wins let’s swing as hard as possible 9 times just in case. A manager should fix that.

The data will tell Correa that his approach is great, exit velo, xwoba all great, good things coming but it won’t tell him he pressing, swinging at bad pitches and letting the pitcher dictate the at bat. A manager should fix that. 

The manager is certainly limited in what they can do but what I’m seeing is a lot of failing in the areas that he absolutely can affect. Most of the lineup or bullpen calls don’t actually directly affect the outcome of a game. We wonder wtf he was thinking pinch hitting for the clean up hitter but was it the reason the game was lost? No.  

The problems I’m seeing are preparation, approach, in game strategy, in game adjustments, self scouting and leadership. All things the manager has direct control of. Coaches need to coach constantly. I hear him getting more frustrated and we don’t know what he’s actually doing but we see the lack of results. 

It would be fairly easy to put together a manager wins above expectation.  Actual wins against the Vegas composite over/under is pretty straightforward.  The front office has assembled a ton of talent. What’s it lacking?

I got some flack for this post from the FO admitting mistakes post in May but the part about letting pitchers dictating at bats really stuck with me.   It’s basically what Lewis is saying here, that approach can work in situations but by definition you are letting the pitcher have control.  Good strategy against a nibbler but horrible if that nibbler is dotting corners.  

On the Gleeman and the Geek show today Aaron said Rocco isn’t even in most of the hitter meetings.  It was presented like, no reason for him to be there.  I would agree, unless it’s the thing holding the organization back, then get your butt in that meeting and help fix it. I would give some grace if it was a pitcher meeting but I’d still expect him involved if it was this big of an issue. 

Yes, you have people assigned to do this stuff but they work for you and you work for them. If they are struggling you are struggling and as a leader it’s ultimately on you to fix it. 

[D.C Twins]

Pssst...Royce...don't listen to ANY hitting advice from the Twins 'hitting coaches'  

You keep doing you.

Good chat

[D.C Twins]

 

'Miranda has unarguably been the single biggest disappointment among a sea of disappointing Twins hitters this year'

Gallo responded... hold my beer....

[wabene]

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I took it as an amusing tongue-in-cheek remark based on the source. Seems like anyone getting riled up about it is taking it way too seriously.

Reusse doles out one BS take after another with the sole intent of riling up the fan base. Lacking in substance that's all he's got. As an astute observer of baseball, how many times do you actually agree with anything that comes out of his mouth? As a comedian and local character I guess he has a place in a sports market where the other media members are playing it straight, but that's about it. 

Edit: I'll add that he is at least partially responsible for the mess that is the Strib sports comments. 

[jkcarew]

31 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

 

'Miranda has unarguably been the single biggest disappointment among a sea of disappointing Twins hitters this year'

Gallo responded... hold my beer....

Joey Gallo?

One of these guys OPS’d 621 (in Yankee Stadium, no less) last year, and is OPS’ing 767 this year.

The other OPS’d 751 last year and is OPS’ing in the 600’s in AAA this year.

Gallo was beyond horrible last year, and this year he’s merely not good. We all knew whatever we’d get from him…even if he hit 50 HR…would come with a ton of strikeouts and low BA.

And if it’s performance vs contract…wouldn’t Correa or Buxton be the better candidates on that basis?

 

[DFlow]

I’ve been posting this same line on Twitter for months. We regularly have nine guys swinging for the fences rather each guy playing to their own individual games. The reality is this FO team is stuck in 2019 and needs to recalibrate to catch up to todays offensive MLB. Manufacturing runs is an art and the modern Twins have to accept that a home run may not be coming later in the game.

The other offensive bugaboo this team has is a lot of roster dead weight in the lineup. Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor are not hitting at a major league level right now and are pure dead weight in the lineup. We all accept a team having one defensive specialist, but three non-factors is a major issue.  There’s going to need to be a correction or else we can’t give up more than two runs per game. 

[William K Johnson]

Well at least this explains the "Gallo experiment" and why he continues to get at bats in this lineup.   Also, explains why we lead the league in strikeouts and are near the bottom in batting average.    A recent loss at Detroit shows exactly why this "only swing at mistakes" approach is flawed, as the Twins hit one home run, Detroit scores on three doinks to the outfield and wins 3-1.   Another flaw in that strategy is that most home runs hit in that approach are solo shots which can easily be overcome with the contact approach to hitting. And if the reason that Lewis sat last night was due to his inability to follow this philosophy, both the hitting coaches and Baldelli should be gone today.

[William K Johnson]

5 hours ago, DFlow said:

I’ve been posting this same line on Twitter for months. We regularly have nine guys swinging for the fences rather each guy playing to their own individual games. The reality is this FO team is stuck in 2019 and needs to recalibrate to catch up to todays offensive MLB. Manufacturing runs is an art and the modern Twins have to accept that a home run may not be coming later in the game.

The other offensive bugaboo this team has is a lot of roster dead weight in the lineup. Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor are not hitting at a major league level right now and are pure dead weight in the lineup. We all accept a team having one defensive specialist, but three non-factors is a major issue.  There’s going to need to be a correction or else we can’t give up more than two runs per game. 

You can add Corea and Buxton to that dead weight list.

[awmonahan]

Everyone can't be out hunting mistakes. I think a team is not set up well if most are hunting mistakes. Likewise, it's an issue if all the batters have the same approach. I'd think a variety of approaches would force the pitcher to think and adjust and keep them less comfortable. But, what do I know. 

[Eris]

Most home runs are from “mistake” pitches. A team scores most of their runs from HR will meet this criteria of hunting for mistakes. 
 

I would be very interested in understanding why this team is on pace to break the single season MLB strikeout record. Is it poor preparation. A swing for the fences mentality. Or a collection of players who are past their prime. 

[Parfigliano]

7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Pssst...Royce...don't listen to ANY hitting advice from the Twins 'hitting coaches'  

You keep doing you.

Good chat

Stay far far away from the Twins "hitting coaches".

[Linus]

Another aspect of this could be too much information. The hitting coaches might be setting up plans that are too rigid. It seems like our hitters are locked into looking for certain pitches in certain counts. If they get a different pitch than what the game plan predicted they are screwed which is why we see so many strikeouts looking. Essentially we’ve got an entire team of guess hitters. 

[Trov]

Personally, I feel the approach of the team is not the best, or most fun to watch, but they are in the middle of league in runs scored, 18th, but only 10 runs separate 18 and 14.  We lead our division in runs scored, but the team gets attacked when other teams strike out less and gets runs across without the HR.  The point of the game is to score runs, and they are not the best in the league, but they are the best in the division.  Is it sustainable?  Maybe not.  I sure wish they would change things up a bit, if nothing else for entertainment. 

The scarier thing is it seems they are missing pitches in the zone at a huge clip is means they are even missing the mistake pitches middle middle too much as well.  

[MABB1959]

7 hours ago, wabene said:

Reusse doles out one BS take after another with the sole intent of riling up the fan base. Lacking in substance that's all he's got. As an astute observer of baseball, how many times do you actually agree with anything that comes out of his mouth? As a comedian and local character I guess he has a place in a sports market where the other media members are playing it straight, but that's about it. 

Edit: I'll add that he is at least partially responsible for the mess that is the Strib sports comments. 

He is the only writer looking at the flaws in this team.  While he can come off like an ass, he isn't that far off.

[Ex-Iowegian]

I think the “guess hitting” theory is what I see also. When Buxton came back after a stint on the IL, or came back from AAA a few years back, he proclaimed that he was just going to do things his own way, and stop listening to all of the advice he was getting from too many sources. He went on an absolute rampage, until he got hurt again.
While this may be a different scenario, I think it is evident that there are far too many times that the “guess” is wrong, and there is a weak swing or no swing at all. And because it isn’t just one guy, there has to be something that is being communicated to everyone somehow.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I took it as an amusing tongue-in-cheek remark based on the source. Seems like anyone getting riled up about it is taking it way too seriously.

 

11 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

He is the only writer looking at the flaws in this team.  While he can come off like an ass, he isn't that far off.

Humor is a slippery slope. 

[tony&rodney]

Grip and rip only works if the pitcher throws the ball in your swing path. A batting practice pitcher or the machines deliver predictable locations ideal for high quality contact. Unfortunately for the Twins, MLB pitchers are not providing enough "grooved" pitches to accommodate the team philosophy on hitting.

The Twins will begin to win series when they put the ball in play more often. Until that time, the pitching staff is all that keeps the team from plummeting in the standings. Baseball provides multiple avenues to win games and limiting the options just reduces the odds of gaining wins. The apparent narrow focus on analytics only results in positive expected win totals as opposed to actual victories. 

In the meantime perhaps the Twins organization might be concerned about attendance in August and September, but then again maybe not. It looks like the team is chasing a .500 record.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I'm holding my replies on this subject until I see a mistake in these comments. Unfortunately, this article and most of the replies appear to be correct. "Strike Three. You're OUT !"

[DJL44]

Royce has also commented publicly that he's getting his pitch far more often than he expected. He probably shouldn't have said that out loud but I'm fine with him swinging while he's getting his pitch. Sooner or later the opposition will adjust and he'll have to work harder and take more walks.

[Coach Wheels]

It goes without saying that the philosophy of hitting with the Twins right now is the wrong approach. With the shift pretty much eliminated from the game, putting the ball in play needs to be emphasized again. Buxton, Gallo, Miranda, and Correa have been less than inspiring and that was the middle of the lineup on April 1st. This series shouldn't count because Atlanta is miles ahead of the Twins on talent and execution, but putting the ball in play can become a focus of our offense any day now.

[silverslugger]

And let's not think that this philosophy lends itself to the three-run homer, aka, the Baltimore Orioles of the 1970's.  In order to hit a three-run homer, two men have to have gotten on base already.  As we've seen way too often this year, this philosophy lends itself to the one-run homer.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Joey Gallo?

One of these guys OPS’d 621 (in Yankee Stadium, no less) last year, and is OPS’ing 767 this year.

The other OPS’d 751 last year and is OPS’ing in the 600’s in AAA this year.

Gallo was beyond horrible last year, and this year he’s merely not good. We all knew whatever we’d get from him…even if he hit 50 HR…would come with a ton of strikeouts and low BA.

And if it’s performance vs contract…wouldn’t Correa or Buxton be the better candidates on that basis?

 

Jose Miranda:

[wavedog]

I was checking some advanced hitting stats a week or two ago and if memory serves me this club is near the bottom at both chase rate - swinging and missing at pitches out of the strike zone and swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone.   So basically a lot of swings and misses - so we have some combination of lesser talented hitters, we are hunting mistakes and swinging for the fences,  poor pitch recognition and/or lack of preparation.    I do see some hitters trying to take the ball the other way at times and there is a room for a mix of hitting approaches in the lineup but I think we are too heavily loaded on the swing hard approach.    I am just thinking if we have a heavy detectable approach rather than mixing it up - it becomes easier to develop a pitching plan against our hitters - and then when facing a better class of pitchers in playoff games where mistakes are fewer that leads to a very limited offense.            

[Swing Batter-Batter]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Well at least this explains the "Gallo experiment" and why he continues to get at bats in this lineup.   Also, explains why we lead the league in strikeouts and are near the bottom in batting average.    A recent loss at Detroit shows exactly why this "only swing at mistakes" approach is flawed, as the Twins hit one home run, Detroit scores on three doinks to the outfield and wins 3-1.   Another flaw in that strategy is that most home runs hit in that approach are solo shots which can easily be overcome with the contact approach to hitting. And if the reason that Lewis sat last night was due to his inability to follow this philosophy, both the hitting coaches and Baldelli should be gone today.

I agree. Not only are the Twins leading all of MLB in strikeouts, the percentage appears to be drifting up, as the season goes along. The last few series, the percentage has run between 40% and 45% of at bats ending in strikeouts. The aprroach has to change. 

[PDX Twin]

14 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

The approach has to change. 

Well, it doesn't have to change. But it has to change if I'm going to start watching games again.

[In My La Z boy]

21 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

I agree. Not only are the Twins leading all of MLB in strikeouts, the percentage appears to be drifting up, as the season goes along. The last few series, the percentage has run between 40% and 45% of at bats ending in strikeouts. The aprroach has to change. 

"The approach" is exactly what Falvey wants, it's what he drafts, it's what he develops and it's what he trades for. The Twins are a top down organization. We are witnessing the execution of Falvey's strategy. Remember his calling card coming out of Cleveland was Pitching Pitching and Pitching, and they had Francona pulling the on-field strings. I don't get the feeling Francona is anyone's puppet. Rocco isn't in the hitting meetings because Rocco is a Falvey puppet. That's what Falvey wants. All this is what Falvey built for us. Saddened watching Rosario last night. He had fire in the belly, like Luis. I miss them both.