Waiting for Mistakes Is Not a Viable Offensive Strategy

As a person that is blocked by Reusse on Twitter for calling out one of his BS takes, why include his tweet? Lewis is allowed to have days off after two ACL surgeries. I get that it mentions the Twins' hitting philosophy, but it's also clearly intended to rile up the fanbase with no proof that it's actually true. 

I mean…he’s K’ing right about at the team rate…above league average.

However, if my hopeful eyes aren’t deceiving me, he does seem willing and able to adapt approach to some AB based on game situation and/or what the pitcher is trying to do with him. 
 

Health. Health. Health. He strikes me as one for whom the ability to think the game might be his biggest asset.

Pssst...Royce...don't listen to ANY hitting advice from the Twins 'hitting coaches'  

You keep doing you.

Good chat

'Miranda has unarguably been the single biggest disappointment among a sea of disappointing Twins hitters this year'

Gallo responded... hold my beer....

5 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

I took it as an amusing tongue-in-cheek remark based on the source. Seems like anyone getting riled up about it is taking it way too seriously.

Reusse doles out one BS take after another with the sole intent of riling up the fan base. Lacking in substance that's all he's got. As an astute observer of baseball, how many times do you actually agree with anything that comes out of his mouth? As a comedian and local character I guess he has a place in a sports market where the other media members are playing it straight, but that's about it. 

Edit: I'll add that he is at least partially responsible for the mess that is the Strib sports comments. 

31 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

 

'Miranda has unarguably been the single biggest disappointment among a sea of disappointing Twins hitters this year'

Gallo responded... hold my beer....

Joey Gallo?

One of these guys OPS’d 621 (in Yankee Stadium, no less) last year, and is OPS’ing 767 this year.

The other OPS’d 751 last year and is OPS’ing in the 600’s in AAA this year.

Gallo was beyond horrible last year, and this year he’s merely not good. We all knew whatever we’d get from him…even if he hit 50 HR…would come with a ton of strikeouts and low BA.

And if it’s performance vs contract…wouldn’t Correa or Buxton be the better candidates on that basis?

I’ve been posting this same line on Twitter for months. We regularly have nine guys swinging for the fences rather each guy playing to their own individual games. The reality is this FO team is stuck in 2019 and needs to recalibrate to catch up to todays offensive MLB. Manufacturing runs is an art and the modern Twins have to accept that a home run may not be coming later in the game.

The other offensive bugaboo this team has is a lot of roster dead weight in the lineup. Vazquez, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor are not hitting at a major league level right now and are pure dead weight in the lineup. We all accept a team having one defensive specialist, but three non-factors is a major issue.  There’s going to need to be a correction or else we can’t give up more than two runs per game. 

Everyone can't be out hunting mistakes. I think a team is not set up well if most are hunting mistakes. Likewise, it's an issue if all the batters have the same approach. I'd think a variety of approaches would force the pitcher to think and adjust and keep them less comfortable. But, what do I know. 

Another aspect of this could be too much information. The hitting coaches might be setting up plans that are too rigid. It seems like our hitters are locked into looking for certain pitches in certain counts. If they get a different pitch than what the game plan predicted they are screwed which is why we see so many strikeouts looking. Essentially we’ve got an entire team of guess hitters. 

Personally, I feel the approach of the team is not the best, or most fun to watch, but they are in the middle of league in runs scored, 18th, but only 10 runs separate 18 and 14.  We lead our division in runs scored, but the team gets attacked when other teams strike out less and gets runs across without the HR.  The point of the game is to score runs, and they are not the best in the league, but they are the best in the division.  Is it sustainable?  Maybe not.  I sure wish they would change things up a bit, if nothing else for entertainment. 

The scarier thing is it seems they are missing pitches in the zone at a huge clip is means they are even missing the mistake pitches middle middle too much as well.  

7 hours ago, wabene said:

Reusse doles out one BS take after another with the sole intent of riling up the fan base. Lacking in substance that's all he's got. As an astute observer of baseball, how many times do you actually agree with anything that comes out of his mouth? As a comedian and local character I guess he has a place in a sports market where the other media members are playing it straight, but that's about it. 

Edit: I'll add that he is at least partially responsible for the mess that is the Strib sports comments. 

He is the only writer looking at the flaws in this team.  While he can come off like an ass, he isn't that far off.

I think the “guess hitting” theory is what I see also. When Buxton came back after a stint on the IL, or came back from AAA a few years back, he proclaimed that he was just going to do things his own way, and stop listening to all of the advice he was getting from too many sources. He went on an absolute rampage, until he got hurt again.
While this may be a different scenario, I think it is evident that there are far too many times that the “guess” is wrong, and there is a weak swing or no swing at all. And because it isn’t just one guy, there has to be something that is being communicated to everyone somehow.

Grip and rip only works if the pitcher throws the ball in your swing path. A batting practice pitcher or the machines deliver predictable locations ideal for high quality contact. Unfortunately for the Twins, MLB pitchers are not providing enough "grooved" pitches to accommodate the team philosophy on hitting.

The Twins will begin to win series when they put the ball in play more often. Until that time, the pitching staff is all that keeps the team from plummeting in the standings. Baseball provides multiple avenues to win games and limiting the options just reduces the odds of gaining wins. The apparent narrow focus on analytics only results in positive expected win totals as opposed to actual victories. 

In the meantime perhaps the Twins organization might be concerned about attendance in August and September, but then again maybe not. It looks like the team is chasing a .500 record.

Royce has also commented publicly that he's getting his pitch far more often than he expected. He probably shouldn't have said that out loud but I'm fine with him swinging while he's getting his pitch. Sooner or later the opposition will adjust and he'll have to work harder and take more walks.

It goes without saying that the philosophy of hitting with the Twins right now is the wrong approach. With the shift pretty much eliminated from the game, putting the ball in play needs to be emphasized again. Buxton, Gallo, Miranda, and Correa have been less than inspiring and that was the middle of the lineup on April 1st. This series shouldn't count because Atlanta is miles ahead of the Twins on talent and execution, but putting the ball in play can become a focus of our offense any day now.

And let's not think that this philosophy lends itself to the three-run homer, aka, the Baltimore Orioles of the 1970's.  In order to hit a three-run homer, two men have to have gotten on base already.  As we've seen way too often this year, this philosophy lends itself to the one-run homer.

I was checking some advanced hitting stats a week or two ago and if memory serves me this club is near the bottom at both chase rate - swinging and missing at pitches out of the strike zone and swinging and missing at pitches in the strike zone.   So basically a lot of swings and misses - so we have some combination of lesser talented hitters, we are hunting mistakes and swinging for the fences,  poor pitch recognition and/or lack of preparation.    I do see some hitters trying to take the ball the other way at times and there is a room for a mix of hitting approaches in the lineup but I think we are too heavily loaded on the swing hard approach.    I am just thinking if we have a heavy detectable approach rather than mixing it up - it becomes easier to develop a pitching plan against our hitters - and then when facing a better class of pitchers in playoff games where mistakes are fewer that leads to a very limited offense.            

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Well at least this explains the "Gallo experiment" and why he continues to get at bats in this lineup.   Also, explains why we lead the league in strikeouts and are near the bottom in batting average.    A recent loss at Detroit shows exactly why this "only swing at mistakes" approach is flawed, as the Twins hit one home run, Detroit scores on three doinks to the outfield and wins 3-1.   Another flaw in that strategy is that most home runs hit in that approach are solo shots which can easily be overcome with the contact approach to hitting. And if the reason that Lewis sat last night was due to his inability to follow this philosophy, both the hitting coaches and Baldelli should be gone today.

I agree. Not only are the Twins leading all of MLB in strikeouts, the percentage appears to be drifting up, as the season goes along. The last few series, the percentage has run between 40% and 45% of at bats ending in strikeouts. The aprroach has to change. 

21 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

I agree. Not only are the Twins leading all of MLB in strikeouts, the percentage appears to be drifting up, as the season goes along. The last few series, the percentage has run between 40% and 45% of at bats ending in strikeouts. The aprroach has to change. 

"The approach" is exactly what Falvey wants, it's what he drafts, it's what he develops and it's what he trades for. The Twins are a top down organization. We are witnessing the execution of Falvey's strategy. Remember his calling card coming out of Cleveland was Pitching Pitching and Pitching, and they had Francona pulling the on-field strings. I don't get the feeling Francona is anyone's puppet. Rocco isn't in the hitting meetings because Rocco is a Falvey puppet. That's what Falvey wants. All this is what Falvey built for us. Saddened watching Rosario last night. He had fire in the belly, like Luis. I miss them both.