So You're Trying to Cope with Carlos Correa Signing Elsewhere

[Nick Nelson]

Hi there. Welcome. Have a seat. As you can see, there are quite a few of us. 

This is a cope session. We're here to help you through this difficult time and find a way forward. Keep reading and we'll begin the journey together.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

 

Late on Tuesday night, it was announced that Carlos Correa has agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. 

In our hearts, most of us expected this. Correa is a top-tier free agent who landed in Minnesota last year by pure happenstance, and whose ultimate new contract eclipsed the Twins' (historically unprecedented!) offer by roughly 80 mil. 

Let us work our way through the five stages of grief.

DENIAL

It can't be! Carlos said he loved it here! The Twins were hanging in there and Correa's market was seemingly shaping up in disappointing fashion. Perhaps this report is all part of some elaborate ploy from Boras to increase Minnesota's offer.

Sorry, but nah. This looks pretty official. 

ANGER

What a jerk. He said he liked it here but all he really wanted was the money. In any case, the Pohlads could have spent enough to make it happen if they really wanted to -- they're billionaires!

Oh great, the Twins came in second place once again for a premier free agent. Hoist the freaking banner. 

BARGAINING

You know what? Screw Correa. He's a cheater. He didn't really want to be here that much anyway; he and Scott Boras were only using the Twins as leverage to get the deal they wanted from San Francisco. Good riddance to 'em. Plenty of other fish in the sea!

In fact, I'm actually GLAD the Twins didn't sign Correa to the contract they finally offered. Who needs to be committing that kind of money to a guy into his late 30s? Besides, if they want to make a big free agent splash, Carlos Rodon and Dansby Swanson are still out there!

DEPRESSION

Ugh. Do we really want Rodon or Swanson? Is there any feasible chance either of them signs here anyway? Correa was a unique situation: a player who the Twins had an opportunity to test-drive, a superstar who acclimated well to a smaller market, and someone the organization valued for traits well beyond his on-field ability. He was our guy.

He's gone, and it's highly unlikely the Twins will sign either of the other remaining impact free agents. This offseason is doomed. From this vantage, it's hard to see the front office running out a significantly improved roster for 2023. I'm going to Arby's.

ACCEPTANCE

We knew from the start that realistically the Twins probably weren't going to sign Correa, or Swanson, or Rodon. They're going to need to move on and find other ways to improve. There is still a wave of mid-tier free agents on the market, as well as any number of trade opportunities. 

Right now the offseason outlook is rather bleak for the Twins, but they've had a tendency to rally late and surprise us in the past. All we can do is stay tuned and see where they go from here.

Our community here at Twins Daily will be here to help you celebrate, or grieve, no matter what happens next.

 

 

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[EGFTShaw]

Pragmatic.

I've moved on.  I think he missed a Golden Opportunity, but I am biased.

Let's see next up on the plan.

[umterp23]

He isn't worth the money for that length of a contract.  Boras and Carlos got what they wanted and it was never the Twins that would give it to him.  He isn't worth the payday that he got, so no big loss.  He wasn't going to resign here so all good.  Twins FO will use the money as they see fit whether it's what we want.  

 

[NotAboutWinning]

Relieved to have a resolution! The new world is full of possibilities and opportunities!!

[jjswol]

Disappointed but I am not a long term deal contract fan so it is what is. You can't always get what you want in life. What I don't want is to see the Twins panic and throw big money at Swanson. 

[ziggy]

Carlos said all the right things, did all the right things but in the end he did what's best for him and I can't blame him. Remember, he only came to Minnesota because he sees the ball well in Target Field. It was the springboard he needed for a better batting average and the big contract. I don't blame the Twins one bit for not matching  $350 million. I wish him well.

[Dave Overlund]

I honestly am not a Correa guy between the cheating and clearly using the Twins as a stepping stone for bigger and better things. 
 

However, I fear people breathing sighs of relief over the length and size of the contract are simply denying the current and future financial state of the sport. 
 

The days of hometown discounts and loyalty are over. It’s no longer the game we watched as kids, on the field or off the field. 
 

The Twins and their leadership need to adapt or be left behind. More and more teams are spending like “big market” teams. Again, join or be left behind in my opinion. 
 

It’s wild that the Timberwolves roster of 15 people ($147 million) in a capped sport is (as of today per Spotrac) almost $100 million more than the Twins 40 man in an uncapped sport.
 

Same market size right? 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Dave Overlund

[DaneRyan87]

Was really hoping for a Correa signing. However, I think this signals a change in ownership philosophy. Time to pivot to Rodon.  I would rather have him than Dansby Swanson. 

[Craig Arko]

Was pretty sure they suspected this would fall through about the time they traded Urshela and got Farmer.

If it were me, I’d look at bolstering the bullpen, since it’s used so heavily.

[jmlease1]

I really really wanted Correa back. I think he'll likely age better than most at SS. But the SFG is one of those mega-deals that's got a lot of risk and is very hard on teams that don't have the resources to just buy themselves out of a bad contract.

Will this one be a bad deal? Maybe. As noted on The Athletic (with a hat-tip to FanGraphs), only 3 players in the past 5 years have been value-added with the bat at age 37 or older and 350+ plate appearances...and 2 of them were Nelson Cruz while with the Twins. (Weirdly the 3rd was Pujols in his return to St. Louis and somehow after 5 consecutive bad years suddenly got all his old power back.) It doesn't bode well for the end of the Bogaerts/Turner/Correa contracts, but you never know. One of them could close their career like Cal Ripken Jr. All you have to be is an inner-ring Hall of Famer, a top 5 all-time SS.

Maybe we can all comfort ourselves by looking at the many worst-case scenarios for these deals, with Correa in particular. I don't wish ill on the man, but maybe his back flares up and he becomes a statue in the field and at the plate (when he actually plays).

but really, the comfort will come if the twins are able to find a good use for the payroll space they currently have, and add some other talent, even if it's not Correa. Rodon + Wil Myers? Swanson + Wil Myers? (I like Myers, sue me)

[Azviking101]

Why is 90% of this related to Correa directly without pointing out the FO? They offered Correa less money than Turner got and put all their eggs in that basket. 
There was no chance Correa was going to say yes to that deal. Everyone knew he’d get around 350.

He owes Mn nothing and I’m sick of people expecting that. 

So now what?

[FritzDahmus]

If you have to now cope....because you thought this was going to happen...........you have a serious problem as a Twins sports writer.

We need objective stories from this web site....not mind numbing cheer leading. 

No, I did not read this article. So if this was a parody....I apologize. But I doubt it was.

 

[Brandon]

It may have been an unspoken part of the agreement that the Twins would help Correa rebuild his reputation and say good things about him to help drive up his value.  The fact that the Twins did offer 285 million is significant.  That was a nice floor for Correa but that offer should have been 20 million higher.  But 350 million is something the Twins were right to stay away from.  I think Correa did enjoy playing in Minnesota.  I also think he would have been happy to resign here. But he also wanted the money.  There are too many teams with blank slates right now.  This doesn’t seem to be the year to be in free agency.  I don’t know if I would pursue Swanson all that much.  The only reason would be to trade him after the first season when in house replacements are ready.  Lee may be a downgrade on defense but not likely with the bat.  I think a pivot to Elvis Andrus makes more sense to me.  Trade for a starter and Keep Kepler and sign a high end reliever.  Maybe Eovaldi instead of trading for a starter.  
 

Nick check your math …65 million not 80 million for ages 39, 40, 41 seasons.  Cabrera’s production at those years says ? Hi.

[vulturepaj]

Twins are reportedly currently under their target payroll by about $45MM per year, I have read.  In my opinion, it is not the correct route to go to sign Rodon based on his injury history and our roster composition.  Plus, position players hold up better.

Here are the three steps to WE’RE GONNA WIN TWINS, WE’RE GONNA SCORE --

Step One -- Trade Luis Arraez and Bailey Ober to Marlins for Pablo Lopez and LHRP Tanner Scott

I ran it through the trade simulator (Trades » Baseball Trade Values), it’s fairly even.

Lopez is on rookie deal making less than $4MM, earliest Free Agent 2025

Tanner Scott is making about $1MM per year – last year he had a very high whip but had 90 Ks in 63 IP and is LH

Arraez low salary but up for Arb soon and he’ll do well with that.  I don’t want to be tied at all to a slow, non-athletic slappy without a position.

Ober low rookie contract but still young and shown some promise – I personally don’t see a high ceiling there.

Net-Net the contact implications short term to this deal would be fairly negligible.

Step Two – Sign Dansby Swanson for roughly what Xander Boegarts got – about $25MM per year

Step Three – Sign a Veteran RH power-ish bat to a short term deal DH (that could perhaps play LF and/or 1B):

Such as:

• Trey Mancini
• JD Martinez
• Justin Turner
• Brandon Drury
• Will Myers
• Andrew McCutchen
• AJ Pollock
• Jurickson Profar

Resulting Situation/Lineups

Players in italics in minors with their current national ranking within the organization

Catcher –

Christian Vasquez

Ryan Jeffers

Jair Camargo

Alex Isola

Charles Mack

First Base –

Alex Kiriloff

Jose Miranda

Kyle Farmer

Tyler White

Aaron Sabato (20)

Second Base –

Jorge Polanco

Nick Gordon

Kyle Farmer

Edouard Julien (15)

Alerick Soularie (18)

Tanner Schobel (19)

Yilber Herrera (29)

Shortstop –

Dansby Swanson

Kyle Farmer

Royce Lewis

Austin Martin (3)

Brooks Lee (1)

Noah Miller (4)

Danny De Andrade (16)

Third Base –

Jose Miranda

Kyle Farmer

Keoni Cavaco (30)

Outfield –

Byron Buxton

Max Kepler

Trevor Larnach

Alex Kiriloff

Royce Lewis

Nick Gordon

Gilberto Celestino

Kyle Garlick

Matt Wallner (7)

Will Holland (28)

Emmanuel Rodriguez (11)

Misael Urbina (12)

Kala’I Rosario (21)

Yasser Mercedes (25)

 

DH –

I have no idea yet

Starting Pitching –

1. Sonny Gray
2. Pablo Lopez
3. Tyler Mahle
4. Joe Ryan
5. Kenta Maeda
6. Josh Winder
7. Chris Paddack

Ronny Henriquez (5)

S.W. Richardson (6)

Cole Sands (10)

Jordan Balazovic (13)

Louie Varland (23)

Brent Headrick (24)

Matt Canterino (14)

Blayne Enlow (22)

David Festa (17)

Marco Raya (9)

 

Bullpen –

Jhoan Duran

Jorge Lopez

Caleb Thielbar (L)

Griffin Jax

Emilio Pagan

Jorge Alcala

Jovani Moran (L)

Tanner Scott (L)

Not much in terms of RP prospects

 

As I have stated this offseason,  I believe you now have a decent major league pitching staff going into the year.  We haven’t been able to say that for awhile. 

Additionally, there are a slew of near-ready SP

Naturally, when and where Royce Lewis fits in is key, but it seems to me in this scenario, he would slide nicely into LF with backup duties at CF.

Lineup:

R-            Buxton                                 CF          

S              Polanco                                2B

R             Swanson                              SS

L              Kiriloff                                   1B

R             Miranda                               3B

L              Kepler                                   RF

R             Gordon/Royce/FA           LF

L              Larnach /FA                         DH

R             Vazquez/Jeffers               C

Conclusions:

• Arraez -- move that guy before you have to pay him.
• Farmer/Gordon becomes super utilites with Swanson on board (besides, who can be excited about Farmer as your starting SS??)
• Defense a little sketch at 3B and maybe 1B… if Royce becomes LF you are +++ in OF and possibly C.  Swanson solid SS and I think Polanco at 2B is solid as well.
• I can’t use Celestino in any way except for AAAA injury fill in.
• We have tons of SP coming up soon, signing Rodon wouldn’t be ideal use of cash at this point.  We need offense more (strange to say)
• Point could be made – why sign Swanson when 3 of your top 4 prospects are SS but those players tend to shift naturally to other positions

[baul0010]

It's a terrible contract.  I would have loved to keep Correa, but no way at that length and dollars.

[Doctor Gast]

LOL, You hit nail on the head, Nick. Quite a gamut of reactions that fans expressed to deal with this news. Thank you for giving us that platform to do just that. Hopefully most of us (including FO) will get thru the process pretty quickly to face reality & deal with the problems that lie ahead of us.

[MN_ExPat]

43 minutes ago, FritzDahmus said:

If you have to now cope....because you thought this was going to happen...........you have a serious problem as a Twins sports writer.

We need objective stories from this web site....not mind numbing cheer leading. 

No, I did not read this article. So if this was a parody....I apologize. But I doubt it was.

 

[RJA]

Humorous post.  You do get a wide range of reactions on this subject, but it is just baseball.  The Twins will never pony up big dollars unless someone signs for a hometown discount like Buck.  It was never going to happen, especially at 285 million.  Why fret over it?

[MMMordabito]

Spend the money on buying free agent years from homegrown talent by giving them signing bonuses and life-changing money that is hard to turn down.   

 

Precedent for success

Kepler - 9.2 bWAR and counting on 5/$33m

Polanco - 12.6 bWAR and counting on 5/$26m

 

Precedent for failure

Sano - 0.1 bWAR on 3/$30m

 

Total - 21.9 bWAR and counting on 13/$89m + League Minimum and Change for whoever has to fill in for the failure.

 

That's where I'm at, but I'm open to being picked apart on the idea.

[lukeduke1980]

I thought the Royce Lewis experience last season was the most exciting Twins baseball since bomba ball.  Figure out how to get and keep that young man healthy and build around him.

[Mike Sixel]

15 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Spend the money on buying free agent years from homegrown talent by giving them signing bonuses and life-changing money that is hard to turn down.   

 

Precedent for success

Kepler - 9.2 bWAR and counting on 5/$33m

Polanco - 12.6 bWAR and counting on 5/$26m

 

Precedent for failure

Sano - 0.1 bWAR on 3/$30m

 

Total - 21.9 bWAR and counting on 13/$89m + League Minimum and Change for whoever has to fill in for the failure.

 

That's where I'm at, but I'm open to being picked apart on the idea.

How has that worked out for winning? 

[D.C Twins]

Great article Nick... creative and enjoyable!

[Chachi]

Optimism?

This had to be one of the best non-gets for the Twins in quite some time.

[rickyriolo]

Can’t wait to buy my Twins Fest tickets Should be exciting 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thanks for writing about what many of us (most of us) TD members are feeling today. We will get over it. We will survive. We're Twins fans. Where the women are strong, the men are good looking and the children are slightly above average. 

[gman]

I was never a Correa fan. I suggested he be traded at the trade deadline in July. We could have gotten more than we did for him. When he was signed last spring, I thought the intention was to trade him. Too late now.

[wsnydes]

I'm coping, I have Scotch!  It's a multi-purpose solution.  It works when they're losing.  It works when they're winning.  It works when they sign the free agent of choice.  It works when they don't sign the free agent of choice.  It's also applicable to the draft!

[tony&rodney]

Agree with pragmatic but also a little confused at all of the anger and negative reactions towards both Correa and the idea of spending a humongous pile of money over many years. Carlos Correa has always been polite and politic. He played hard and had a good year for the Twins. There was never going to be any type of hometown discount because San Juan does not have an MLB team. Correa and/or Boras do not set the price. The teams that pay the salaries set the price. Why are people opposed to long term salaries for big bucks? It is the owners and front office together who make these decisions and while it is very true that many players have declined badly towards the end of those contracts it is also true that the financial benefits paid off. An overwhelming number of teams would sign those deals again. It's not the money, it's the benefits of the player.

I'm fine with Correa signing with the Giants. I like the Giants. But I'm a Twins fan and I'm still hopeful that there are improvements in the style of play next season to a more exciting, fundamentally sound squad that uses a spreadsheet when appropriate but reads the game as well. The Twins are down in attendance because the team wasn't that much fun to watch. Target Field is a great venue and there is plenty of good places to stop before and after a game in Minneapolis. Of course if you want to visit a few seedy spots it can be a little dicey but that one is on you. Put the product on the field and people will come.

There are still some good players available. Jurickson Profar is energetic. J. D. Martinez is still a doubles machine. Elvis Andrus showed life with the White Sox last year. Trades can still be made. 

[Whitey333]

Great article Nick.  I think most of us new from the moment that Correa signed his Twins contract that he would opt out.  We also new there was no way he was coming back.  Also from that moment the Twins, fans, media, etc were being played by Correa and his agent Scott Boras.  The fact that our FO played into it while trying to placate fans and make it appear they were making a serious attempt to sign his is borderline disgraceful.  What is most bothersome to me is that several affordable pitchers were signed by other teams during this process.  Since this current FO regimen has been in Minnesota it's been very difficult to figure out what they are doing as each year seems to be thrown together in such a haphazard way.  I would expect more of them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, FritzDahmus said:

No, I did not read this article. So if this was a parody....I apologize. But I doubt it was.

Nick Nelson’s wall is here for you to issue your apology:

https://twinsdaily.com/profile/18-nick-nelson/