The Twins Underrated Path to Contention

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Tom Pohlad has been consistent in one message this winter: He believes the Minnesota Twins will be in contention in 2026. Projection systems have been far less optimistic, and Pohlad has shown little interest in revisiting the organization’s second straight offseason of payroll cuts. Teams with higher payrolls buy margin for error through veteran depth and midseason flexibility. The Twins do not have those luxuries. What they might have, instead, is something harder to quantify and easier to overlook.

Underrated players do not make a loud impact in national conversations. They are often hidden behind strikeout totals, injury histories, or the simple crime of playing in medium-sized markets on underachieving teams. Yet, those players can quietly carry a roster when things break right. MLB Network recently ran through its Top 100 Players Right Now, and MLB.com followed that with Anthony Castrovince’s 2026 All Underrated Team. The criteria were strict. No recent major award winners. No former All-Stars. No nine-figure contracts. No young players who are still in their honeymoon phase. What remained was a list of players who consistently help teams win without much recognition.

Two Twins landed on that list, and both point toward how this roster might outperform expectations.

Ryan Jeffers continues to exist in the strange space where solid production at catcher somehow feels replaceable. Catching is brutal on the body and harder on the bat. League-average offense at the position is valuable, and Jeffers has been better than that. Over the past three seasons, he has been one of only four catchers with at least 335 plate appearances and a league-average or better OPS+ each year. His OPS+ in that stretch sits 13% above league average. The names around him are William Contreras and Will Smith, players who are spoken about very differently.

Jeffers is not marketed as a franchise cornerstone. What he does is show up, take quality at-bats, lead the pitching staff, and provide offense from a position where many teams accept far less. The Twins also expect that he will catch 100 games or more this season, his last year under team control. That kind of stability behind the plate has ripple effects through a pitching staff, especially one that relies heavily on command and sequencing. Jeffers being quietly good is exactly the kind of thing projection systems tend to flatten out.

Matt Wallner is a more chaotic version of underrated. As MLB.com pointed out, his 2025 stat line does not look normal, and that's because it was not. Forty-one extra-base hits with only 68 total hits is an absurd distribution, something that has barely happened in modern baseball. The easy explanation is that he strikes out too much. The harder truth is that Wallner actually made real progress there, cutting his strikeout rate by more than seven points while maintaining a walk rate in the 84th percentile.

The underlying data suggests the power is real. His average bat speed was among the quickest in the league, and he ranked in the 85th percentile in barrel percentage. When he makes contact, it is loud. Injuries have kept him from stacking full seasons, but over the past three years, he has an OPS+ that is 29% better than league average. That is the same neighborhood as James Wood and Pete Alonso over similar stretches. Wallner does not need to become consistent in the way stars are consistent. He just needs to stay on the field and keep doing damage.

Beyond those two, the Twins roster has several other players who could be quietly critical if things break right. Here’s one underrated player in each player group (position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers).

Royce Lewis is no longer a mystery. He is also not what he was at his peak a few seasons ago, as he finished last season with an 85 OPS+. That gap between expectation and recent reality has pushed him into underrated territory. Lewis still has impact tools, and his ability to change a game with one swing or one defensive play remains intact. The question is health and rhythm, not talent. ZiPS projects him to have a 97 OPS+ with a 1.4 fWAR. If he can simply get back to being himself, even at a slightly reduced level, the lineup gains a presence it has sorely lacked.

Bailey Ober sits in a similar space on the pitching side. Injuries disrupted his 2025 season and dulled the conversation around him as he ended the year with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. When healthy, Ober has shown he can miss bats, limit walks, and give length. Those are traits that age well and travel well. For 2026, ZiPS projects him to produce 2.0 fWAR with a 102 ERA+. The Twins do not need him to be an ace. They need him to be reliable, to show that last year was an interruption and not a trend.

In the bullpen, Cole Sands may be the most interesting name. His stuff has played in a variety of roles, but the late innings are where reputations are made and tested. Sands has the chance to become one of those relievers who perform in high-leverage spots. ZiPS projects him to have a 110 ERA+ with a 23.5 K%. If he proves he can handle save opportunities, the Twins suddenly have an internal solution that would otherwise cost real money.

The Twins may not have the payroll cushion Tom Pohlad wishes he could ignore, and projection systems may not see the upside baked into this roster. But baseball seasons are not won on paper. They are won by players who outperform their labels. If enough of these underrated pieces click at the same time, Minnesota’s path to contention may not be as far-fetched as it looks.

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Do the Twins have other underrated players? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[twinsfansd]

How sweet it is to hear a positive tone for the Twins season. Every year there is a team or 2 that exceed expectations and a couple that don't meet expectations. For these very reasons. Thank you for the hope. M

[OregonTwinsFan]

One can hope!

[Muppet]

I’m selling turd polish. Dm me if you need some. 

[Blyleven2011]

We've watched these underperforming underrated  players for a few years ...

Why would anyone expect the players on our position roster to have anything close to a above average year ...

It could happen with some new enthusiasm from our new coaches and manager , play hard and have some fun  , if they play hard with passion they will succeed  ...

Where has all the passion gone , where has all their inspiration to be ballplayers gone , it's a kids game  they have been underperforming for some years ...

We haven't had a passionate player since arraez and Polanco left  , buxton shows some signs but not all the time  ...

[mikelink45]

We approach ST with either hope or resignation not sure where I am on that scale.  

[Over The Hill Again]

Everything in this article could come to fruition and it’s still a 78 win team. Doesn’t mean I’m not pulling for these guys. See you at the park. 

[ToddlerHarmon]

7 minutes ago, Over The Hill Again said:

Everything in this article could come to fruition and it’s still a 78 win team. Doesn’t mean I’m not pulling for these guys. See you at the park. 

This is it: the problem is not that the Twins have no talent and no opportunities for overachievement, it's that they have too many spots where best case is uninspiring. What's the most we are going to get out of Lee, Bell, Larnach, Roden? Even if they all achieve "playable", the rest of the roster is not star studded. You aren't going to win divisions and playoff series with that much mediocrity.

[sweetmusicviola16]

It's now 3 off seasons of payroll cuts, not 2.

[DJL44]

To really contend they will need the next wave of talent to arrive early.

[LastOnePicked]

56 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

We approach ST with either hope or resignation not sure where I am on that scale.  

Baseball is still a beautiful game, regardless of where our Twins land. If I have hope, it's for tighter play on the field and feistier lineup.

[Old Twins Hat]

I would rather think and imagine how the Twins core could contend than considering the endless chorus of how they will fail.

Not into Woo-Woo, but there are fan bases out there that believe positive energy put into play near their home team actually makes a difference.

Hey!  Who out there wants to watch a loosing/indifferent bunch of millionaires getting their asses kicked around Target Field?

Guess I'm in the minority.

[Jim H]

I don't know if any of these players are underrated, except possibly Lewis. They are probably rated pretty much as they are. Jeffers is a bit above average hitter for a catcher. Probably a bit below average defensively and who knows working with the staff. He is unlikely to be an all star but he is better than a lot of major league catchers.

Wallner even if he regains hIs form is slightly above average offensively and below average defensively. Neither Wallner nor Jeffers should be hitting in the top half of the lineup but way too often they have. That isn't their fault but it shows the lack of better options. It is likely they are what they are. Better performance is possible, but?

Sands is likely what he is as well. Maybe he could perform better than he has so far, but he wasn't used in high leverage situations until the sell off. He has yet to show that he should be.

As far as Lewis goes, the talent is still there. If the injuries are behind him I think he could become what he has shown in brief flashes. I don't if that makes him underrated.

[AceWrigley]

2 hours ago, Muppet said:

I’m selling turd polish. Dm me if you need some. 

Is it organic?

[Parfigliano]

Waller should try getting XBH when guys are on base.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

You aren't going to win divisions and playoff series with that much mediocrity.

Especially when even our mediocrity is very mediocre.

[USAFChief]

If the ALC winner ends up with ~74 wins, the Twins might contend. 

 

[NJM]

i really hope we contend again, going to G2 of the wild card serries in 23 was electric .

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

It's now 3 off seasons of payroll cuts, not 2.

Opening day payroll went from $150-130-140-110. The opening day payroll increased in 2025. The sell off dropped the season total payroll.

[bean5302]

Sure, the Twins could have a whole bunch of players rebound or have a late year season Renaissance like Carlos Santana had for one season. It's just not likely.

It's easy for me to take a look at each individual player, roll a couple Monopoly dice and hope double-digit totals. It's not far-fetched to see that happen a few times in 20+ rolls.

But to never see any rolls below 5 or to see 10+ double-digit roll totals through the whole process is the concern people have.

[CRF]

As always...hope for the best...and be prepared for the worst. 

[dxpavelka]

Oh, c'mon man.  I'm engaged in an ongoing debate with one of this site's "community moderators" about the fact that it MIGHT be possible for this team to exceed expectations and you go and TOTALLY redeem my argument.  Dude, your positivity is gonna get me banned from this site if you're not careful.  

[rv78]

I was hoping someone would change my mind. Okay........ my season tickets have been bought. Are you happy now? Whoops! Back to reality.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We've watched these underperforming underrated  players for a few years ...

Why would anyone expect the players on our position roster to have anything close to a above average year ...

It could happen with some new enthusiasm from our new coaches and manager , play hard and have some fun  , if they play hard with passion they will succeed  ...

Where has all the passion gone , where has all their inspiration to be ballplayers gone , it's a kids game  they have been underperforming for some years ...

We haven't had a passionate player since arraez and Polanco left  , buxton shows some signs but not all the time  ...

- being demonstrative usually comes with/after successful results on a personal or team level (that comes first)………..Pete Rose was an anomaly in the 60’s & 70’s, not the norm ……..they aren’t circus performers.

- Keaschall seems to be about as energetic and fun loving as they come, to the eye. Buxton too, as you mentioned. I think Martin brings an energy as well. (Bader & Vazquez last year).

- being passionate looks good to the fan but it doesn’t create talent nor hard hit balls nor good defense - effort & talent get results, IMO, not waving your arms around or throwing bats or whatever “entertainment pieces” show passion.

- from my viewpoint, Jorge Polanco couldn’t be any more quiet and laidback verbally and physically……..other than quiet desire to win/succeed I don’t “see passion” watching him play

[amjgt]

13 hours ago, Over The Hill Again said:

Everything in this article could come to fruition and it’s still a 78 win team. Doesn’t mean I’m not pulling for these guys. See you at the park. 

It's really easy to look at the rotation and see how it could be a top 10 rotation.

It's also not too hard to look at this lineup and envision a 60th percentile team outcome that's above MLB average.

BUUUUUUUT

This defense and this bullpen. Woof. You need to squint REALLY hard to see anything not in the bottom quarter of MLB. The only regular I feel like is above average is Buxton, and even HIS defense, I think we need to start recognizing, is approaching average. And the bullpen, there is ZERO path to averageness outside of 2-3 starters being converted to the bullpen and having good seasons.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Oh, c'mon man.  I'm engaged in an ongoing debate with one of this site's "community moderators" about the fact that it MIGHT be possible for this team to exceed expectations and you go and TOTALLY redeem my argument.  Dude, your positivity is gonna get me banned from this site if you're not careful.  

We get it, you hate it here.  

[Riverbrian]

There is no doubt in my mind that I would have gone a different direction. 

Now that the direction has been laid out. Or has been laid out... so it seems. We still have off-season to go. 

Will it work? It's possible. The Rotation has the possibility to keep us in games where a little bit of offensive improvement will produce more wins than most of us expect. 

If it works? It only works for 1 year. We will still have to dig ourselves out again in 2027. 

It's going to be hard to make this work in 2026. Yes... the starting pitching has to do it's job and keep us in game and I do believe it's possible. 

In addition to that... the bullpen has to be at least average. It's possible. Let's see how they do. 

In addition... the offense has to be better. The offense can't afford to absorb three players getting over .387 AB's of sub-700 OPS (Lee, Lewis and France) while only producing two players with over 207 AB's with an OPS over .800 (Buxton and Keaschall). 

If they do have to absorb this many sub-par players... they will have to win games with their legs and we don't seem to have the legs to be that type of team. 

I haven't even gotten to defense that will contribute to the starting pitching keeping you in games to allow your offense to win you some games. 

It's a very difficult path to take... that if successful... brings a 1 year reward.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It’s that time of year when anything is possible, and I’m hoping for the over and not the under.  The rotation should be (more than) fine.  The bullpen is likely below average, but how much below will determine team success.  Teams with mediocre bullpens do win, it’s just a little messier.  To me it’s the position group that has the greatest variance.  There are a number of players that could be better this year than last year, OR we could be looking at the same mess we had last year.  Again, it’s how much better that will determine ultimate success.  

It is probably unrealistic to expect Buxton to be better.  He’s another year older, but you never know, he could be Tori Hunter, who seemed to improve offensively the older he got.  Keaschall probably won’t ever be better on a rate basis for his entire career, HOWEVER, simply being available and not hurt might make up for that on a compilation value basis.  I completely agree with Jeffers and Wallner being underrated.  They both have the potential to move the needle quite a bit. Lewis you’ve already addressed.  He may not be an all-star (but you never know), but he could find a way to be moderately above average, which would raise the floor on the team considerably.  Josh Bell should absolutely be an offensive improvement over some of the previous occupants of 1B/DH, although that bar isn’t very high.  LF is a question mark with Larnach/Roden/Martin but also has strong potential for a youngster breaking through in ERod, GG, or Jenkins.  Shortstop is a problem.  We just have to hope that Lee can survive there for a year defensively while not getting even worse offensively.  Is it murderer’s row?  No, but it’s not hard to see a fairly competent offense developing out of this group.  Top ten starting pitching, middle ten offense, and bottom ten bullpen could win 85 games, or it could lose 85 games.  As I said, lots of variance.  Thats why we play the games.  

[Major League Ready]

Tom Pohlad should take notice of what the Cardinals are doing and ask himself if he knows more about running a MLB team than the Cardinals organization collectively.  Then, he should go hire someone who knows what they are doing and let them do it.

[Linus]

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

There is no doubt in my mind that I would have gone a different direction. 

Now that the direction has been laid out. Or has been laid out... so it seems. We still have off-season to go. 

Will it work? It's possible. The Rotation has the possibility to keep us in games where a little bit of offensive improvement will produce more wins than most of us expect. 

If it works? It only works for 1 year. We will still have to dig ourselves out again in 2027. 

It's going to be hard to make this work in 2026. Yes... the starting pitching has to do it's job and keep us in game and I do believe it's possible. 

In addition to that... the bullpen has to be at least average. It's possible. Let's see how they do. 

In addition... the offense has to be better. The offense can't afford to absorb three players getting over .387 AB's of sub-700 OPS (Lee, Lewis and France) while only producing two players with over 207 AB's with an OPS over .800 (Buxton and Keaschall). 

If they do have to absorb this many sub-par players... they will have to win games with their legs and we don't seem to have the legs to be that type of team. 

I haven't even gotten to defense that will contribute to the starting pitching keeping you in games to allow your offense to win you some games. 

It's a very difficult path to take that if successful brings a 1 year reward.  

This sums it up nicely for me. There doesn’t seem to be a strategic plan that takes into account future years. So I hope we flip heads five times in a row and win 85 games. I’ll still enjoy watching.