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Jim H

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Everything posted by Jim H

  1. Jim H
    I am not sure what ABS has to do with framing. Of course I don't think framing has much to do with how an umpire calls balls and strikes either. A catcher's glove is roughly 3 feet behind the back edge of home plate. A major league umpire is deciding whether or not the ball passed thru the 3 dimensional strike zone above the plate. Where the ball is caught is mostly irrelevant to whether the ball is a ball or strike. What ABS is showing is that there are a lot pitches close to edges of the strike zone. It is not clear to me that ABS is really any more accurate than the umpire on those close pitches, due to the limitations of ABS. What is clear is that umpires generally have a good idea where the strike zone is and are not particularly distracted by how or where a catcher catches the ball.
  2. Jim H
    I also believe the deadline trades need to be evaluated separately. I also believe it is far too soon to have a firm opinion on how well the Twins actually executed the mass selloff. Several conclusions can be drawn about why they did what they did, however. First, they had no confidence in the catching prospects throughout the system. Beyond the 2 prospects they added at the deadline, they have continued to remake the catching even up to the major league level. 2nd, they have really added to their pitching "pipeline". Clearly, they weren't too confident in their near ready starter prospects too be able too cover their potential needs. Whether Abel and Bradley will be to continue to perform at a high level is to be determined. But they are ahead of anybody who was in system. That they added a bunch more arms at the deadline also suggests they lacked a certain amount of confidence in what was already in the system. Finally, I really am confused about why they added 3 more corner outfield left-handed bats at the deadline. Maybe they will make some trades to clarify that, eventually.
  3. Jim H
    I think what this shows is that Abel is effective when he has control and command.. He is ineffective when he doesn't.
  4. Jim H
    Since none of the 8 guys are obviously better than any of the others, they just seem to be rotating thru them without over using anybody while paying some attention to matchups. That is probably as good as anything else you could do with this crew. For a guy who had been DFA twice this winter, Laweryson had been working his way to a high leverage role, till he got hurt. Morris is interesting. He will probably get longer inning opportunities at least for awhile. Maybe he will be a closer candidate eventually. Using everybody else for 3-5 outs seems to be working, sort of.
  5. Jim H
    If Tom Pohlad was responsible for Falvey leaving, that would be a positive from m point of view. Other than setting the budget and picking top management, usually the less involvement in the operation of a sports franchise by the owners as possible, is better for the success of the franchise.
  6. Jim H
    I am not sure replacing Outman with Roden solves anything, directly. Using Larnach or Wallner as mostly fulltime DH, and using Roden as a fulltime corner outfielder would perhaps be a better look than current useage. Also trading either Larnach or Wallner would also open a slot for Roden. Replacing Outman with Roden without making other adjustments isn't the only choice here.
  7. Jim H
    Ok. Just how are you implementing this compete for playing time idea? While I agree players need to earn playing time, one way you earn it is by dominating in the minors. So if you have earned a promotion to the majors I think they deserve an extended opportunity to adjust to the better competition. I also think there is a place on the roster for versatile backups who may not be good enough to play everyday but can contribute good defense at several positions, be a starter for short time when someone is on IL, and sometimes they even earn a full time or a platoon role. I think right now Larnach has probably played himself into a platoon role. The problem with that is Martin had an extended opportunity at the end of last season to play left field everyday and basically succeeded at it. My question for you is how does compete for playing time work in this situation? I want see Martin playing left field almost every because he's earned the opportunity and because Larnach seems to better suited to platoon dh. I also think that Martin may eventually prove he can't provide enough offense to be an everyday left fielder. I just don't want that decided before he has a reasonable chance to prove it, one way or the other. So what the Twins are likely going to do is try to get both of them "fair" playing time. Leaving one or the other on the bench for 3-4 games in a row, pinch hitting for one of them in the 5th inning, playing one of them in a position they usually don't play, or some other goofy thing. Now, I realize that none of this is what you are advocating for. I am just afraid that when the Twins try to allow "compete for for playing time" this is what you are going to get.
  8. Jim H
    I don't agree with this. What you are proposing is pretty much what the Twins were doing under Baldelli. They chased small platoon advantages by moving people up and down the batting order. They would try gain a slight advantage getting a backup an at bat in the 5th inning when a new pitcher came into the game. they gave 400 pa's some years to career backups 30 years old or older, most of were gone the next year. So now we have a bunch of guys past their mid twenties who between injuries and being used to chase platoon advantages, nobody knows if they can be an everyday productive player. The right answer is probably not. Still, there is no good reason reason to force Outman, Gray or Caratini into the lineup at every opportunity. They are backups. They have spent years proving it. So take advantage of their versatility and play them when somebody has a minor injury, is sick or needs a break for some reason. When the next wave is ready or someone goes on the IL call up the next player and play them. The game hasn't changed, the competition is better. Trying to ease them into the lineup or protect them from platoon disadvantages is self defeating and delays finding out if they can compete at the major league level.
  9. Jim H
    Just to clarify. Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan are not bit parts. They should play as much as they can handle.
  10. Jim H
    I enjoy your posts. You usually bring a different viewpoint to many of these discussions. It is useful generally, to consider angles that are a little different than some of the narratives found here. I do think that having so many late 20's or older players with less than 3 years major league experience is concerning on this version of the Twins. There are very few true impact major leaguers on this roster. There are a few players who could still develop into an impact player but if you haven't done so by the time you reach your late 20's the odds go down dramatically. So I think you give full time opportunities to the handful of guys on this roster who have a meaningful chance to reach that not so lofty height. That probably means Martin. Keaschall, Wallner, Lewis, Lee and the youngish starting pitchers. Everyone else is a bit part and can treated as such. If they make something out of their limited opportunities, great. But lets not work too hard to get Clemons, Gray, Outman, etc. extended chances. Soon hopefully, the next wave of prospects will force themselves to the majors. When that happens, play them everyday. Don't treat them as a bit player to be danced in and out of the lineup with guys who have shown they should be used as backups. All that ever does is extend the amount of time it takes to figure out who can contribute meaningfully to winning.
  11. Jim H
    Up here in North Dakota, the weather forecasters have, when the weather is bad, taken to tell us how to dress, how to shovel snow, how to drive on ice, etc. Apparently we are too dumb to figure these things out ourselves, or even look it up ourselves. I see the people at Target Field feel the need to do the same.
  12. Jim H
    I think Cody's statement about power being hard to develop isn't quite right. Many minor leaguers have power. Trying to develop enough contact ability to go with the power often is what is hard. Lack of an ability to make enough contact is what is derailing Sabato's career, for example. The power is there. Matt LeCroy is another example of great power, not enough contact. There are many others. I think it is sometimes easier to go the other way. If you have great contact ability, many players develop power as they get older. Puckett was a good example. Hrbek hit around 300 as a rookie with limited power and became a power hitter as he got older.
  13. Jim H
    The real take away here, is that the Twins struggled against all pitching last year. Changing the back end of the lineup probably won't change things much. Either the almost established youngish vets will improve, or they won't. We are all hoping the next wave of prospects will change this, eventually.
  14. Jim H
    Implying Wallner is in their class? Both those guys hit over 40 home runs a year with batting averages over 250 and sprinkle a lot of doubles in there as well. If Wallner can get over 30 home runs he would provide some value. But, these advanced stats seem to overvalue home runs compared to other hits, in my opinion. It looks like Wallner is going to get a chance to prove he can be a little more consistent and maybe provide more than solo home runs that don't seem to be particularly clutch.
  15. Jim H
    For me there are 2 basic problems with the bullpen. Right now they no one really that fits the roles that Duran and Jax filled the last few years. Maybe they find they are able to fill those roles by the end of season, maybe not. The other problem has more to due with how baseball has evolved. With starters covering fewer innings during the course of the year, and more relievers being locked into one inning roles, it has gotten harder to cover the extra innings between those roles. Most teams end up using nearly 20 different relievers to fill in those innings. This creates a shuttle with AAA, and a near constant dip into the waiver wire. So what we see now is marginal relievers giving away winnable games on a weekly basis. As long as teams are stuck in this usage pattern there are limited ways to fix the problem. One way to deal with this is to have an very deep pile of effective relievers even at the AAA level. I don't really think the Twins have that right now.
  16. Jim H
    I read those articles, I am not sure they helped me be optimistic for the upcoming season or increased my confidence in Zoll. I watched the first game and enjoyed Ryan's performance. I was impressed with Baltimore's defense and wishing we might see some of that from the Twins this year. I was hoping that after Baldelli got fired we wouldn't have to see the backup catcher forced into the lineup, especially on the first game of the season. I was also hoping that the team would be strong enough that the manager wouldn't feel it necessary to pinch hit for whoever he chose to bat leadoff. It also seems you can't just snap your fingers and have a quality bullpen. Otherwise I am looking forward to the upcoming season.
  17. Jim H
    This is exactly right. I am not complaining specifically about Outman or Larnach. Its what is the plan here? The team added Outman, Mendez, and Roden to the 40 man roster at the deadline last year. They appear to be redundant on the current roster. There is no obvious way for any of them to get a real run at proving them could be a major league regular at this time. They could be fitted in as a backup and/or a short term injury replacement maybe. So why were they acquired if they aren't better than what you already have in your system? This what I wonder about. You just aren't going to be able to give all these outfielders a fair shot to prove they are major league regulars. There are too many of them mostly with nothing left to prove in the minors.
  18. Jim H
    I don't think it much matters which of these two makes the roster. It will be rather sad if they both do. Neither of these guys will contribute much to a winning team and whoever makes the roster will likely play too much, much like the previous bench options have the past few years. I want to see the younger guys who make the roster play as much as possible to see if if they have potential to be actual full time major league starters. Turning them into platoon options so I Kriedler or Arcia can play more is a fool's game.
  19. Jim H
    I am not sure why anyone is upset about the Twins letting Hendricks go. The Twins were trying to catch lightning in a bottle here. Hendricks was not a long term answer or even a medium term answer. In fact, he was unlikely to survive the entire season without injury or even manage to be effective that long. The Twins are going to have build a bullpen from mostly their pool of failed starters. Digging people off the waiver wire and finding older relievers trying to comeback to a former level of effectiveness is a stopgap plan. It took awhile to build the mostly effective bullpen they traded away. It will take awhile this time too.
  20. Jim H
    You are right. Velocity is nice but you can succeed as a starter without an upper nineties fastball. While Ryan's fastball has some unique characteristics, a lot of his success with it is due to location. That is also true of other pitches as well. If you throw too many pitches waist high in the middle of the plate, major league hitters will make you pay. No matter the velocity or the movement.
  21. Jim H
    To me the,the thing that works for Ryan is his fastball. He throws it over 50% of the time and he can throw it when batters are expecting it and still get strikes or outs with it. Sure, he has developed other pitches but they work off his fastball. I think that is the difference between Ryan and the other potential guys in the rotation. If you can't depend on your fastball to set up your other pitches, pitching gets a lot harder.
  22. Jim H
    It's true that great offense trumps iffy defense. But using the early 60's Twins as an example: they had great offense even setting a Twins record for home runs that stood until 2019. They didn't start winning until 1965 and big factor in that was better team defense. Killebrew became a fulltime 1st baseman where he was pretty good. Most of the key defensive positions transitioned to better defenders. Even Tovar became a full time center fielder. You can play a poor defender like Poland a ss if his offense is great and you don't have better choices. It works, but It was always obvious that Polanco's best defensive position was 2b. It could also be pointed out that when Polanco was a ss they left him there and didn't move him around to other positions. He did improve there, but his poor arm was still a liability.
  23. Jim H
    Jorgensweet, I was wondering about that aspect of the abs system as well. You might get more consistency in the strike zone from the abs system than a human, but by taking away the depth of strike zone you will likely penalize those pitchers with excellent command. I think it possible that the umpire will actually be right often but the abs system will over rule him. I suppose someday the system will be advanced enough to call strikes in 3D. Then everyone will have to adjust to that.
  24. Jim H
    I don't agree. Nothing makes sense until they prune some of the corner outfielders. After you figure out who your starters are, then you figure out the bench pieces.
  25. Jim H
    Context matters. Usually an average defense infielder who provides above average offense for his position, is going to be more valuable than a corner outfielder that provides above average defense and the same offense. That is one reason to keep Keashall at 2nd if you can. Until you find a 2nd baseball man who is better at both, why move him. The other reason to keep him in the infield, is the Twins really need to sort their corner outfielders. Till they figure out where they are going with that, there isn't much reason to be moving infielders to the outfield. Other than emergency situations, just put Keashall at 2nd and leave him there.
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