Jim H

[QUOTE=jorgenswest;259488]The teams would certainly have access to any of those details and splits by park. Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Savant may have that detail. I am interested in watching how teams make roster and lineup decisions based on the pitch level data and soon batted ball fielding level data. Teams are in very different places right now with their decisions based on shifting and valuing defense from a catcher. The new data related to fielding should cause further variation in team decision making. I would certainly hope teams would have access to and actually look at those details. The stuff we see would be worthless to teams unless they actually take on faith that there is that much impact from pitch framing. This is a huge problem with most of the so-called advanced stats. Since we have no access to the formulas they use for the various FIP's, UZR, or WAR, you have to trust the creator that he is giving the same weight to the various components that you would. Since that is pretty unlikely, I just look at the components. Walk rates, SO rates, and even HR rates can tell you a lot about a pitcher. Whether FIP does, even though it contains those things, is a large question for me. Whether I would understand the formulas they use is another question. But that in itself, is part of the problem. If you don't really understand how it is derived, how can you trust what those numbers are saying.

For a counting metric, they sure make it complicated. How about if someone shows us, the actual numbers (i.e. exactly how many strikes each catcher supposedly steals). Then you look at the total games caught. If Molina steals 1 more strike per game than Suzuki, is that significant? How about 2 strikes? What if it is only a half a strike a game? This is part of issue in pitch framing for me. People are telling me it is an important stat. Let me see the raw data, and let me or you decide. And yes there are probably some significant issues with the pitch f/x data. As wonderful as modern technology is, it has to be properly set up, calibrated or whatever the right term would be. I would not be surprised if in some parks pitch f/x squeezes the strike zone, or is overly generous in others. Since the plate is only 16 inches wide, being off even an inch(which the pitch f/x literature admits could be the case) could have a large effect. It would be interesting to see if the number of disagreements between pitch f/x and the umpires varies widely by ballparks.

So how do you know he would benefit from being in the majors? How is he going to work on his 3rd pitch working out of the pen? He probably wouldn't need it in the bullpen, and in short stints, unless he has confidence in the pitch he likely wouldn't want to use it in crucial situations. Would you let him pitch in back to back games? Is it really a good idea to change a guy's whole routine when he may still be recovering from the shoulder problems from last year? I get bringing him up in September to use in the bullpen, with an expanded staff, and rather strict usage rules. I don't know about now. If he can't come up and be used as a starter, then leave him in the minors to work on things. He is not going to make a difference to Twins success this year, getting mechanics worked on and 3rd pitch work might be better served in the minors. I wouldn't mind seeing him in the majors either, but I am not as sure as you seem to be that it would be any real benefit to him.

These kind of ratings don't mean much to me. The Twins had no chance to draft Correia so they took Buxton as the one they believed was the best talent available. That is looking pretty good so far. If others from draft end better, well good for them. So far anyway, Buxton looks like a good choice for the Twins. Sometimes I think the expectations for him are a bit unrealistic but it looks like the Twins got a good one. That is what is important going forward.

Aaron Hicks is a talented player. I expect a good part of the "blame" for his failure so far is on Hicks. He should of been far enough along the development path to handle the majors better than he has so far. Some of the blame should also be on the Twins. If they don't trade both CF's, if Mastroianni stays, healthy, if there was another better option, the Twins don't let Hicks struggle like he did. I don't care particularly about why he struggled so much, hopefully he learned from it, and clearly the Twins have revised their timetable for Hicks as well. I do agree there is little value in some the comments made about both Hicks and the Twins by various posters. That however is part of what happens on these forums, especially thanks to the frustrating performance by the Twins and many players over the last few years.

I don't know the whole story on Williams, but the simple answer is for him to play better. That is how you progress in the minors. What does happen with prospects like him is that while I wouldn't classify him as an org type guy, he isn't probably considered a real high ceiling guy either. Often guys like that get worked in around higher ceiling guys who are placed where they need to be. That is my perception anyway.

I think this right. There could be a point when trading Dozier makes sense. When Rosario or Polanco get close enough to the majors and show enough to make a solid replacement for Dozier. Dozier may not get much/any better than he is now but barring injury, he is not likely to get worse. Whatever trade value he has, will be there in a year or two, if the Twins want to go in that direction. When you are rebuilding with young players, it takes a bit of time for all of them to figure things out and finish development. At some point the Arcias and Santanas have to be in the majors working things out. It is clearly better to have a solid team(like the Twins of the mid 2000's) and only have to filter in a young player or twp every year. The Twins aren't there yet, and aren't likely to try to shortcut the process through free agency or trades. At least not massively so. Perhaps we will see selected free agents and a few, mostly minor trades. I am hopeful that the pitching will be good enough over the next few years, so that we don't have to watch a trainwreck while the young, hopefully premium talent position players figure things out at the major league level. It is possible to be borderline contenders while the young talent grows into what we all hope and project they can be.

We have 70 games to look at these guys, unless there is a trade. I wouldn't be in hurry to extend any of them. Maybe Willingham gets traded, I doubt if anyone else on this list gets traded. So, let's get through the season, see how everyone did, and then make some decisions. I doubt if the Twins have ruled Pinto out as a fulltime catcher, why would they? I have no idea what the Twins should do with Morales, I doubt if they do either. Let's watch Suzuki for the rest of the season, maybe get Pinto back up in August sometime. Maybe things look a bit clearer at the end of the season. I think the Twins like Dozier a lot. But there is no big hurry to extend him or trade him or do much of anything but let him play. At some point, maybe Rosario or Polanco will get close enough to the majors and show enough that the Twins will have to make some decisions. I don't think that point is now.

One of the problems with the whole pitch framing idea is this: Pitch F/X calls the front edge of the plate, but the plate has depth(16 in). The catcher catches the ball a couple of feet? behind the plate. Where the catcher catches the ball really shouldn't matter. It is the track of the pitch that matters. Since Pitch F/X calls the front edge of the plate, it is going to be wrong sometimes on close pitches. Since umpires are apparently graded by Pitch F/X technology, I suspect the umpires are less concerned by where the catchers catch the ball, and more concerned with getting a good look at where the ball crosses or not crosses the front of the plate. That is probably what pitch framing is mostly about, trying to give the ump a good look at the ball. As far drjim wonders, I think those are good thoughts. I doubt if the cameras used in different stadiums are in actually the same places in all stadiums. I doubt if everything is always perfectly correlated either. As to the 2nd wonder, clearly when you watch games on TV it seems that different pitchers don't always seem to get the same calls from umps. It seems that pitchers like Deduno for example and maybe Gibson as well, guys who have a lot movement but not consistently the same movement don't get as many close calls. I have a hard time blaming Suzuki for that.

It is only about 2-3 years old. It is based on Pitch F/X. If a pitcher gets a strike called by the umpire on a pitch Pitch F/X called a ball, the catcher gets credit for it because of pitch framing. There are a few things to be nervous about, whether there is as much impact from a few stolen strikes as the creator suggests, the fact that Pitch F/X can't possibly be always right, whether the catcher should be the one to always get the credit, and a number of other things. It is an interesting stat, but almost certainly needs refinement, and is certainly not the end all of ways to evaluate catchers.

I am assuming/guessing that Santana will split time between CF and SS. Escobar will play SS when Santana doesn't and backup 3B and 2B. Perhaps(I would like to see) Plouffe gets a little time in LF. Since the Twins will likely be sellers as the trade deadline approaches, trades may change this a bit. I think Willingham is probably the only position player likely traded, but you never know.

It is easy to root for Walker but the contact issues are a huge concern. When you add in plate discipline issues as well, it is hard to see him as a top prospect, yet. When you compare him to say Arcia, Arcia is struggling with contact issues in the majors, yet was able to hit for average at every level as well as show comparable power to Walker. I hope Walker figures some things out, but I feel that Adam Dunn type players are somewhat overrated. Their production generally comes in bunches, with long stretches of time where they not only almost worthless offensively but are often a drag on the team if they have no defensive value or aren't walking much. I suspect there is some hope for Walker because he is considered a good athlete rather than just a bat, like several other prospects in the Twins system. I am also sure he will get opportunities, he certainly has a high ceiling.

We know that some people will take shots at the Twins organization whenever the opportunity presents. That is OK, the Twins deserve some shots. Just don't be so surprised when facts are presented to counter the shots. Especially here, where I am having a hard time figuring out what Gomez has to do with the troubles that Hicks has had. Largely, the Twins have screwed up with Hicks. Either they believed he was closer to being a major league ready hitter than he has appeared to be or there were other issues that the Twins didn't recognize soon enough. In any case they probably should of gotten him back to the minors much sooner or perhaps given him more development time before promoting him to the majors in the first place. Having said that, I am rooting for Hicks to figure it out. He certainly has talent. By the way, I was under the impression that he is switch hitting. I suspect that if he had gone back to being a right handed hitter again, it would have been widely reported.

Jack, My guess is that the popular modern metrics(such FIPS, UZR and WAR) often a prominent part of this site are largely unused by you and your department. Would I be right?

I don't know that the bolded part is true, but I agree with the rest of your take. I think the Twins believe they have a future top of the rotation guy here, and are taking steps to help get him to that place. Since his shoulder issues from last year, they have moved very carefully with him, to protect his arm but also to further his development. Whether or not you believe this year is a lost cause, trying to protect and develop a future ace is probably more important than getting his feet wet at the major league level, this year.

This could be true. The most interesting prospects, reasonably close to the majors, could be Goodrum or Harrison. Goodrum's bat isn't there yet, Harrison may not be a 3B, and his power hasn't developed yet either. Otherwise you have to look at very young guys or perhaps someone like Polanco. That is assuming you don't consider either Plouffe or Sano as likely long term options at 3B. Thrylos' idea that LHSP as the organization's biggest weakness could be true as well. I like Darnell but I am not sure he will stick as a major league starter, though I think he will get that chance. After that the most interesting LH starters are pretty young. I wouldn't entirely rule out Rodgers who is at AA, and is putting up nice numbers. I think catcher may yield some guys who will play in the majors. Whether anyone including Pinto can provide both solid defense and enough bat to be a major league starter, is pretty much still up in the air. I would like to see some of the lower level OF guys take a step up in the year or so. Otherwise there doesn't seem to much behind Buxton, Arcia and maybe Rosario, unless Hicks figures some things out. I don't know if any of these "holes" will be filled in any possible trades of current vets. I don't think the Twins have anyone that will yield a high level, near major league ready prospect, unless Perkins or Dozier is traded. That isn't going to happen. I don't see the Twins trading them or someone like Arcia or even Plouffe at this time.

I think that it is basically a bad idea to get young players to the majors before they are "ready". Clearly we all define ready differently. But it is clear that Hicks, Arcia and maybe a few others were likely moved to the majors before they were ready. Yet, their minor league stats indicated they were "ready" or close to it. I think some of the young guys many seem to want up are probably less ready then Hicks or Arcia appeared to be. There are really 2 issues here. Can being in the majors help the development of a young player or does it hurt them? Clearly, there is no one answer to that, sometimes it helps, sometimes it probably hurts. I feel Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez are 2 fairly recent examples of hose whose development was slowed by being in the majors too soon. The other issue would be, do you really want to start the major league clock on some these guys who could use more development time, and probably aren't any better than the guy they would be replacing right now(no matter their upside)? Personally, I don't think it is all that much fun to watch guys who aren't really ready to be in the majors, playing there. I watched that in early 80's and the late 90's. It only became fun when they began to figure things out, even if they weren't winning all that much.

A lot of you seem to assuming that many international signings work out. I don't believe that is really true. I expect the Yankees and others assume that an international draft will be instituted so the most they will loss will be 2 top thirty picks. I expect a draft maybe agreed upon but may not be instituted for 2 years. That will mean that the teams that followed the rules will be able to sign free agents for the next two years without competition from the Yankees or other teams that ignored the limits this year. More importantly, unless this is truly an unusual year, very few of the expensive signings will actually contribute to the major league team. The odds are against international signings, really. Part of the reason the Twins are heavily involved, is that it is relatively inexpensive, and if you do find impact players, the return will greatly outweigh the investment. I am not so sure that the Twins will really favor a draft. Their method of scouting and investing in 2nd tier international signings, has brought a lot of interesting prospects to the Twins over the last few years. How many will be top major league players remains to be seen, but at least there are a number of intriguing prospects.

If memory serves me correctly(and it may not) Kubel went from High A to AA to AAA to the majors all in one year as a 21 year old. It doesn't happen too often but he dominated each level to get to the majors in September? I think. He actually played in the playoffs that year, then got hurt in the Fall League. As someone else said, I think you take it case by case. I expect Polanco will likely play at AA sometime this year, but since he's not dominating a High A, I don't know how critical it is to get him there immediately or necessarily at all. He has things to learn, it is largely more important that he playing everyday rather than the exact level he is playing at, I believe. Sometimes, (not necessarily in this case) promoting a guy means juggling players all the way up and down the system. Even perhaps releasing someone. I don't believe releasing someone should ever be done lightly, even though it is an unfortunate part of the overall process. I am trying to point out that promotions aren't or shouldn't be a random thing, this guy is having a hot week or a couple of good starts, let's get him to the next level, shouldn't be the way promotions are handled. There is enough shuffling around because of injuries, sometimes. I remember a few years ago when one of the Twins minor league catchers played at all four full season levels, but never as the starter. He was shuffled around whenever someone was injured so whoever the main catcher was at each level could stay where he was as a the starter. That has to be a terrible feeling as a player, he was clearly unimportant to the Twins future, though he was serving a useful role. I think we as fans, sometimes forget we are dealing with real people. There are possibly some really good reasons for the Twins to get Polanco back to Fort Myers. I don't know if there is, but if there was, it is quite possibly none of our business. A great many things dealing with players should be kept as private as possible. In such a public business, that isn't always possible, but the Twins shouldn't necessarily explain the reasons for promotions or non-promotions sometimes.

You can see from this why the Twins front office seems so closed mouthed about trade discussions and such. No player would enjoy seeing his name associated with most of these trade discussions. You know obviously that almost any player's name can come up, clearly part of a GM's job is determine who might be available and whether he can be obtained for someone not really in the long term plans. Still, knowing that your name is being thrown around like some sort of fantasy league deal, would be rather unsettling.

Thank you for posting this. It is interesting. I am not sure it actually means much, for some of the reasons already posted here and well, depth is good but a few dominant arms is maybe better. It is also interesting that Cedar Rapids is dragging down the organization, even though some of the struggling arms there are quite intriguing.

I sure understand the Florimon dislike. Still, it took 2 injuries to get him back to the majors and 3 injuries to get him into the starting lineup. He should be back in the minors in a few days. As to why he his starting instead of Polanco, it is probably easier to loss a game in the field rather than win one with the bat. Polanco, without the 3 injuries to infielders, would be hoping for a promotion to AA pretty soon. He doesn't belong in the majors, yet. I expect the Twins will keep Florimon around, rather than release him, for a little while. If Escobar or more likely Santana can establish themselves as a reliable shortstop, well then release Florimon. Florimon is still the best defensive shortstop the Twins have. If the other two can't be consistent big league shortstops, Florimon could reemerge as a starter. I don't really think that will happen, but I didn't think either Escobar or Santana would be 300 hitters in the majors either. And they probably won't be, it sort of depends where their bats settle into at the major league level.

You could be right in your assessment of Burdi. Still, he will face better lineups in the Midwest League then he has ever faced before. I think with a young guy like this it better to be promoting him then finding yourself demoting him, if it turns out he is bit overmatched. As good as he likely is, he will see tighter strike zones then he has seen before. I assume the Twins want a smooth adjustment for him. I hope to see quick promotions as well.

Some believed Parmelee could be a big league regular based on his performance in the upper minors, plus his good performance in September 2? years ago. I think that right now, it is hard to justify starting him everyday based on the 4 people ahead of him. Since he can play LF, RF, 1B, and DH he is a serviceable backup for Willingham, Arcia, Mauer and Morales. I think all 4 need to start. If Arcia is in the majors, and he probably should be, he needs to start. Unless Willingham or Morales, gets traded, and that doesn't make a lot of sense right now, Parmelee isn't going to replace either one on a daily basis. I don't know Parmelee's future, but it is hard to see him as more than a backup for the Twins, given current and projected future players from the minors. His ceiling as a major league player appears to be more of a journeyman than future star. Of course I could be wrong about that, and I wouldn't be opposed to seeing him get regular playing time in the 2nd half of the season, if Willingham were traded, for example. Consistency seems to be his problem at the major league level. I wouldn't be surprised if it won't always be an issue for him. He isn't good enough defensively at any position to leave him out there when he is not hitting.

While I am not particularly a Billy Beane fan, I think his success in building winning teams is partly driven by understanding his home park. It is a rather unique baseball park and Beane is pretty good at finding both hitters and pitchers that fit the park. With the huge foul territory, rather big outfield, surprisingly short power alleys, it is actually a pretty good park for patient power hitters. His successful teams in the early 2000's had a number of them. It is also a good place for young pitchers with a lot of "stuff". A lot of foul pops turn into outs in the Oakland park. The fairly large outfield and cool weather in the spring and fall, often means that the pitchers get away with flyball mistakes that would be homeruns in other parks. So Beane has turned what is a problem, how to keep effective pitchers who rapidly get too expensive for him to keep, into a solution. He constantly trades effective pitchers who are getting expensive for young pitchers who have "stuff" but would likely struggle a bit in more hitter friendly parks. If you look at the history of the Oakland franchise, you would see that despite having a number of good hitters over the years, there has been only one batting champion. On the other hand a number of home run champs played for Oakland. Many, many young pitchers have had a lot success for Oakland over the years. I think a lot of Beane's success is related to building a team to his home park.