Jim H

The phrase "better than his numbers" was a recent quote by Terry Ryan concerning newly acquired starter Kevin Correia. Now, I admit I have no idea whether Correia is "better than his numbers". I don't remember having seen him pitch and I haven't followed his career. The question for me is, is any pitcher "better than his numbers"? It is an interesting question for many reasons. A large part of discussion about Jack Morris' suitability for the Hall of Fame centers around this question. Many of his supporters suggest that the numbers or at least the traditional numbers, understate his value. Certainly, we have all seen a game where a pitcher was "better than his numbers". Occasionally we will see a pitcher give up a bunch of runs in an inning where there were no well hit balls and every hit seemed to perfectly but softly placed in the right spot. Many pitchers seem to pitch better than their secondary numbers suggest they should, at least for a while. Sometimes for a long while. Blackburn, despite the vitrol sent his way in the blogsphere, was largely the Twins best pitcher for 2 years. Till injuries set in or the league caught up to him, depending on your point of view. I always felt that Brad Radke was better than his numbers throughout his pretty long career. His numbers were solid, but generally suggested a good but not quite a front line starter. My thought is that Radke generally gave the Twins 25 or more starts a year where he gave his team a good chance to win. Quality starts, I suppose. Unfortunately he also had 2 or 3 starts a year where he was putrid. Six or more runs in 3 or less innings. It spoke to, I suppose how fine a line he walked to be a effective major league pitcher without dominant stuff. What those few extremely bad starts did, was take very good stats and make them pretty ordinary. It happened to him every year. Because he never strung together dominant performances like a Santana, his solid, very good pitching got diluted by a few bad starts. Clearly, even close observers often take in to account certain factors and conclude that certain pitchers were "better than their numbers". Ferguson Jenkins is a good example of this. He was elected to the Hall of Fame despite having slightly inferior numbers to many of his peers. It was thought that the handicap of pitching in Wrigley Field and often playing before an inferior team, depressed his numbers. So it was concluded that Ferguson was indeed Hall of Fame worthy despite his numbers. So, what does all of this mean? Well it could mean that some prominant bloggers are wrong about Correia. Perhaps, he is one of those pitchers who is "better than his numbers" and will provide useful pitching even if his end of the year numbers don't look that good. Or perhaps he is actually what his numbers suggest, a number 5 starter holding place until someone better comes along. I certainly don't know, but I will look forward to seeing whether Terry Ryan is right about him.

The phrase "better than his numbers" was a recent quote by Terry Ryan concerning newly acquired starter Kevin Correia. Now, I admit I have no idea whether Correia is "better than his numbers". I don't remember having seen him pitch and I haven't followed his career. The question for me is, is any pitcher "better than his numbers"? It is an interesting question for many reasons. A large part of discussion about Jack Morris' suitability for the Hall of Fame centers around this question. Many of his supporters suggest that the numbers or at least the traditional numbers, understate his value. Certainly, we have all seen a game where a pitcher was "better than his numbers". Occasionally we will see a pitcher give up a bunch of runs in an inning where there were no well hit balls and every hit seemed to perfectly but softly placed in the right spot. Many pitchers seem to pitch better than their secondary numbers suggest they should, at least for a while. Sometimes for a long while. Blackburn, despite the vitrol sent his way in the blogsphere, was largely the Twins best pitcher for 2 years. Till injuries set in or the league caught up to him, depending on your point of view. I always felt that Brad Radke was better than his numbers throughout his pretty long career. His numbers were solid, but generally suggested a good but not quite a front line starter. My thought is that Radke generally gave the Twins 25 or more starts a year where he gave his team a good chance to win. Quality starts, I suppose. Unfortunately he also had 2 or 3 starts a year where he was putrid. Six or more runs in 3 or less innings. It spoke to, I suppose how fine a line he walked to be a effective major league pitcher without dominant stuff. What those few extremely bad starts did, was take very good stats and make them pretty ordinary. It happened to him every year. Because he never strung together dominant performances like a Santana, his solid, very good pitching got diluted by a few bad starts. Clearly, even close observers often take in to account certain factors and conclude that certain pitchers were "better than their numbers". Ferguson Jenkins is a good example of this. He was elected to the Hall of Fame despite having slightly inferior numbers to many of his peers. It was thought that the handicap of pitching in Wrigley Field and often playing before an inferior team, depressed his numbers. So it was concluded that Ferguson was indeed Hall of Fame worthy despite his numbers. So, what does all of this mean? Well it could mean that some prominant bloggers are wrong about Correia. Perhaps, he is one of those pitchers who is "better than his numbers" and will provide useful pitching even if his end of the year numbers don't look that good. Or perhaps he is actually what his numbers suggest, a number 5 starter holding place until someone better comes along. I certainly don't know, but I will look forward to seeing whether Terry Ryan is right about him.

What do you suppose "normal" turnover is? I suspect that in the 4 years since your list, the Twins have signed between 80 and 100 pitchers from the drafts and international signings. Obviously a number of minor league free agents have been signed as well. I think the Twins have been hurt by a large number of injuries during this time. Clearly your point that not enough pitchers have developed into quality major leaguers is a valid one. But I am not sure that just looking at the number of pitchers from the spring of 2009 and checking on how many remain in the organization really tells you anything.

I enjoy these lists and don't really know enough about the prospects to comment, much. Still, I have a question about Vargas. My understanding about him is that he is a bit old for the level, has outstanding power but a bit of a slow bat and is not much defensively. He seems a little high on this rating. I tend to agree with you on the rest of the prospects. I am a bit excited about Salcedo, he seems like he could be a solid big league starter, someday.

Shane, to be a little less snarky. It is not just my opinion that Carroll is a below average fielder. If Carroll was viewed by major league talent evaluators as an above average fielder at shortstop, he would of held down a regular starting shortstop job for the last ten years instead being a utility man. His offense has been average or above for a middle infielder. If he was even average defensively he would of been starter. Look at guys like Adam Everett who started for years. Defense at short is the defining issue. Carroll clearly isn't that good defensively. Gardy would of left him at short or brought him back when Dozier struggled if Carroll were even an average big league shortstop.

Shane, I have no confidence in defensive stats, for any number of reasons. If the defensive stats say Carroll is above average especially at short, that is still one more reason to distrust them. More importantly, Carroll's production isn't likely to stand up to being a regular. If he is used as a utility guy, 3-4 times a week, he will stay fresher both offensively and defensively. I don't much care if he is used at the top of the lineup, when he is in the lineup, but I really think I would put Dozier there. With the choice right now, Dozier will likely start at either short or 2nd. Let him bat 2nd if he does. While I think roster speculation is interesting, there are so many variables and even possible additions or subtractions between now and spring training, that I doubt things will work out much like any of us suspect. The starting pitching breakdown and centerfield should be the most interesting.

Don't understand the Carroll thing. He is not really above average anywhere any more. He certainly isn't above average at short. He is a utility infielder and still pretty good at it. That is where he should be. If Florimon or Dozier aren't the answer at short, and they may not be, than you go elsewhere to find one. I wouldn't waste much time plugging Carroll in there. I am sort of surprised that the Twins haven't/apparently aren't going to get a solid middle infielder. It seems to indicate that they think either Florimon or Dozier can be a decent shortstop.

While I tend to agree with Old Nurse on WAR, I think even you believers in WAR are missing something here. It is very hard to predict what pitchers will do. WAR or all pitching stats really, are not predictive. The Twins staff in 2010 was good enough(I have no idea what their collective WAR was) to be major contributors to a 95 win team. Virtually the same staff was considerably poorer in 2011 and contributed almost nothing in 2012. Also consider, last year at this time, nobody was predicting(including WAR) what Diamond went on to produce in 2012. What Ryan is trying to do is put together a staff that by any measure(use WAR if you like) has some chance of being league average. He is well aware that some of those will fail, which is why there are so many options. Now, this stragedy has a fair chance of failing, I think Ryan has acknowledged this. Part of the reason for this is that there is little chance of the assembled staff to be better than league average. If that is your upside...... I am supportive of this stragedy because I don't think that by buying the higher priced, longer termed options actually much increases the staff's chances of being better than league average. Whether that is true or not, Ryan has acquired some higher upside pitching options, when added to the potentially higher sided options already in the system, gives a great deal of hope for the future. So getting back to the topic presented. Ryan is assembling a group of starters for 2012 that we all hope can be league average. He is avoiding any long committment that might inhibit assembling an above average staff in the future. Given where things were, I believe that is the right path.

"Will he pitch to a $13 million level? Maybe not, but there's little chance he'll pitch below a $10 million dollar value either. He's safe and besides, he's proven to be a very tradable commodity"Quote from Nick You don't think he will pitch below a $10 million level? I don't think he has ever been more than a back of a rotation pitcher. Is that really worth $10 million per year? You are right about him being tradable. I just wonder why he his previous teams were so willing to get rid of him. I certainly want the Twins to sign some free agent pitchers. While I suppose Jackson isn't the worst pitcher out there, he certainly is likely to be overpriced and I think overvalued. I rather hope that if the Twins sign a pitcher or pitchers to a multi-year deal, it is somebody likely to be more consistent and frankly better than Jackson.

It is true he isn't Blackburn, but he hasn't been any better than Blackburn's 2 good seasons, either. You have to wonder why a guy with his kind of stuff doesn't put up better numbers. You also have to notice that one year is all anyone seems to want to keep him around for. I guess that if Ryan signs him, especially for 2 years or less, I won't be upset. I won't be very excited either. He is a back of a rotation guy, who has generally eaten up a fair number of innings. I doubt if he is suddenly going to turn into an ace, or even a top of rotation guy. It doesn't seem like he will be a complete bust, either.

Another good article with interesting speculation. I think that Revere is the more likely of the 2 to be traded before the start of the season. While I doubt if Hicks is ready to play in the majors, Mastroianni could be used as a placeholder. It is certainly possible that some team could value Revere as highly as Span, meaning he could yield a high end pitching prospect or a pretty accomplished big league starter. Trading Morneau is harder. There is no bat remotely ready to replace him or move Parmelee to first. Guessing his trade value is also hard. His combination of high salary, one year to free agency and injury history make me think that his trade value is likely lower than Revere. Trading him for a back of rotation pitcher makes little sense. Getting a very high end prospect seems unlikely. Assuming that Ryan believes that there is some reasonable chance of contending in 2013, I doubt if either one gets traded unless the return is pretty spectacular.

I think that the oft repeated refrain that there is no pitching in the Twins system, is overstating the case. Pitching, even starting pitching, can move quickly through the system. There are several interesting guys beyond those you mentioned. I think it is a bit early to be sure that Hermsen can't add both velocity and "stuff" to his toolbox. Salcedo and some of the more recent draftees and international signing have some promise.

My guess is that the Twins have somewhere around $25 mill. to spent on pitching for 2013, whether it comes from free agent spending or in a trade. They may be willing to spend say another $20 million in 2014 if that is what it takes in multi year contracts to get what they want. Spending that kind of money might get a staff that will be as good as 2010 or it could closer resemble what happened in 2012. The problem is, most of the guys signed are going to have a question or 3 surrounding them in terms of health, consistency, or just plain talent. So yes, I agree that Ryan plans/hopes to have a competitive team in 2013. He understands that a lot of things have to go right for that to happen. Which it can if you want to use Oakland and Baltimore as examples from 2012. An extra problem here is that even if the starters he assembles, perform to near a best case scenario, other things will have to go well to be competitve. Good health by the vets, and some growth and consistency by the young guys will have to happen. So, I don't see the Twins dumping Willingham or Morneau this off season. There is no replacements ready, really for either one, and going to the free agent market to replace them will likely offset what you get in return for them. The Twins could conceivably trade someone else, but there would have to be a very high return, which seems a bit unlikely at this time. I think that 2013 is sort of a pivotable year for the Twins. Whether they contend or not in 2013, they will want to see growth by their key prospects. Pitching, throughout the system, needs to be healthy so that the Twins can actually evaluate what they have and what they need. They really need the current core of everyday players to be healthy. Then you can make decisions about whether to trade or keep them. 2013 would seem to be the key to whether the last 2 years were just down years or the beginning of a long rebuilding process.

"During six seasons in the minor leagues, Revere showed the ability to get on base at a very good rate (.383). Most of this was driven by a very high batting average of .326, which is a number that he most likely won't be able to duplicate at the big league level" Quote from above article. I don't really agree with this. People talk like Revere's only skill is his speed, but really, he has always been able to hit. If he becomes a bit more selective, and perhaps improves his bunting, I really think he can challenge for batting titles. A great many speed guys are slap and run guys. I think Revere is a better hitter than that. I also think that playing him too shallow is a double edged sword. Anything that gets by a shallow playing outfielder can easier turn into a triple or perhaps an inside the park home run.

I dsagree entirely. I don't think trading Mauer is a good idea, at all. You are going to struggle to get comparable talent back. There is nothing in the system that can replace what he does, even if he is only catching half the games. Finally, I don't really see that his contract is big obstacle to being competitive. The issues are making good decisions and being healthy. Having more money to spent but having less talent to work with, because you have traded Mauer, isn't likely to make you a better team.

I suspect the quality of the pitching is the key here. Neither the Pirates or the Twins had very good pitching in those years. Tampa certainly did. That is the problem with some of these new metrics, they actually corolate better with something else than what they are trying to measure. I remember when everyone was excited because Jeter's UZR improved one year over the previous year. The real reason was a number of better starting pitchers. Nobody ever really considered that. Finally, I don't doubt that Molina is good at framing pitches. The question is, what is the impact of that rather limited skill. I suspect that Molina has a large impact on a game because of his all around defensive skills. Including working with his pitcher, calling a game, blocking pitches and throwing out runners. While I don't doubt that stealing a pitch here and there is useful, the idea that it is a 5 win skill over 80 games, is pretty unbelievable, and pretty much ruins this metric as anything to pay attention to.

The problem with this metric is that you are giving the catcher credit for something he has no control over. First of all, on close pitches you can't sure that Pitch f/x is any more accurate than the umpire. Camera angles and the inability of Pitch f/x to show the depth of the plate mean that often the umpire could be right and Pitch f/x could be wrong. 2nd, the umpire usualy doesn't see the "framing of the pitches" he is focused on where/if the ball crosses the plate not where the ball is caught. When an umpire misses a call it can be for a variety of reasons. Maybe the catcher blocked the umpires view, maybe the umpire was expecting the pitch to move different than it did, maybe because the pitcher is getting credit for an extra inch because his control has been so good, maybe he missed it because he is human. The idea that a catcher can steal enough pitches for his pitcher to save 50 runs in 80 games isn't just an exaggeration, it is an insult to umpires. They aren't so bad at their jobs that how a catcher catches the ball is going to have much of an effect. I also find it strange that it ok to give exaggerated credit for Molina being a good catcher, but not to Butera.

"If the metric is accurate, Molina saved his team 50 runs in 80 games. Doumit cost the Twins 21 runs in 59 games. Molina's value is all defense but those 50 runs saved represent 5 wins. Doumits -21 represents a loss of 2 wins and completely wipes out his contribution to the team as a hitter" Quote from above article. I used to think most fans underrated defense. Some of these new "metrics" distort it. You really think that how a catcher catches the ball can save his team 50 runs in 80 games? I suspect that most good umps don't even see where the catcher catches the ball. They are focused on the strike zone above the plate. One of the problems with that nice little box that most TV broadcasts use to show whether a ball or a strike, is that it doesn't show the depth of the strike zone. All of this isn't to say that Doumit is a good catcher. He is not. Molina is a lot more valuable than his offensive numbers suggest. Just like Butera is. But saying that Molina won 7 more games than Doumit by how he frames pitches-I don't think that is remotely true.

Trades for Twins could be a bit tricky. While "everyone" is available, if the Twins really want to contend next year, trading more than one or so from the current core will be difficult. There is no one from the farm that is likely to be ready at the beginning of the year and probably can't be relied on for a year or so, maybe. Trading young assets that could be impact players means you better get someone darn good. Look at all the complaining about trading Ramos even though he can't stay healthy and has yet to prove that he can either hit or defend well enough to be a big league regular. What the Twins really need is for someone to really want one of their "surplus" outfielders. Probably Span, and hopefully that can return a solid, above average starter. I expect you are largely right, the Twins will have to be willing to take on significant salary to improve the starting pitching enough to give them a good chance to be contenders in 2012.

You make some good points, although I have never understood the fascination with Edwin Jackson. who has been a back of the rotation starter his entire career. He may have the stuff and the "potential" to be a top of the rotation starter but he has never pitched to that level consistently. I suspect the Twins will have to sign a free agent to a multi year contract, although I think most bloggers won't be pleased with their choice. They will probably acquire another pitcher with a multi year committment through trade as well. I am not sure that is a real good idea, but largely they have no real choice. I really expect the Twins to have up to 4 starters with at least some major league experience added to their roster or signed to a minor league contract by Feb. 1. As far as your point about the Twins minor league system, there is at least some chance that there could be some other starters from the Twins system knocking on the door to the majors within a year or 2. Wimmers and Salcedo are 2 candidates and their are a couple of guys from the last 2 drafts who could move quickly if they adapt well to being starters. Even a guy like Bromberg and maybe a couple of others who have been around for awhile still have some chance of being useful major league starters. Personally, I think, given a bit of good health, their is more starter talent in the Twins system than most people think.

No Morneau? Dozier should at least be part of the depth. Capps may be released but I am not so sure that will happen either. I would also add Hicks in somewhere. While he likely won't make the team out of spring training, the Twins will certainly take a close look at him and he could be one of the first OF's called up if need calls. I won't comment on Slama being ranked 3, but until he actually pitches in the majors again, well you know.

If you are building for 2014, you are likely leaving some names out of the discussion. Certainly Hicks should be in the conversation, perhaps 3-4 others currently at AA and perhaps some guys at Single-A like Michael. I also agree with some of what you say, though I don't know that I consider contending in 2013 and building for the future, mutually exclusively. It is likely quite possible to do both. The problem with trading or getting rid of everyone who is unlikely to contribute in 2014 or beyond is you may very well force kids on to the major league roster who don't belong there. I saw too much of that in the 90's. There was little in that, that would make me think that unready players develop faster by being overmatched at the major league level. The other problem with trading all your tradeable players who aren't a definite part of the future, is that most of them aren't really all that tradeable. Look at the Boston deal, unless the players to be named are special, Boston didn't get much and gave up $11 million besides.

I wouldn't mind seeing Slama up this September but some of you conspiracy theorists who claim to follow the minors very closely, you realize that Slama has been hurt for large portions of the last 2(this year and 20ll) seasons? Also when he has been healthy and effective, there has been little immediate need for his skills. In addition to that, he appears to be largely a one inning reliever(based on how he has been used in the minors and the fact he throws a lot of pitches in each appearance). That would tend to limit his opportunities at the big league level. For example in the latest call up the Twins brought up Waltrip because he is more of a multi-inning type reliever. Slama will likely need to used as a one inning specialist or a guy to get righthanders out in the 6th-7th or 8th innings. Every team in baseball had a chance to claim Slama when he was removed from the 40 man roster. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve an opportunity, but it does mean he isn't a prized prospect. Slama will likely get another opportunity to pitch in the majors, perhaps with the Twins, perhaps not. Some marginal guys do succeed in the majors and I hope Slama is one them, but I do not think there is some sort of goofy conspiracy by Twins brass to kkep him out of the majors.

I really do expect the Twins to upgrade the pitching staff next year. How they do it, trade or FA signing I don't know. I have no clue either who they might target. Stilll, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of guys. I don't expect Pavano back, and Baker is kind of iffy. He won't likely be ready at the beginning of the year and who knows what it will cost to sign him. They won't try very hard to go after Liriano either if he is a free agent. Blackburn will be back, I think. I don't know that, that is a bad thing. He is not that expensive and he has certainly contributed as much as Baker or Liriano, when healthy. Diamond will be in the rotation, anyone else in the system is speculation at this point. I think Hendriks could be good. Gibson, they will have to be careful with. Everyone else is likely a step below Blackburn. I have hopes for Bromberg but he kind of went backwards this year. Hermsen is probably going to be pretty good, but I doubt if he will be quite ready next year.

Even if Willingham is not being "shopped", it doesn't mean the Twins won't listen to offers for him. Your points are true enough, but there is not obvious replacement in system for his bat. Parmalee, Benson, Arcia, and even Hicks may be ready pretty soon. But if righthanded power is important to you, none of these guys will replace Willingham.